NCAA Week 5

[Pacers_Freak]

Freak went 6-4 last week. 19-16-1 on the season. Here is who I'm on this week:


Indiana +14 @ Mich State
Baylor/Iowa State over 54
Minnesota @ Purdue Pick'em
Cincy -3.5 @ Marshall
Ark State/Troy over 60
Ohio State/Nebraska over 66.5
NC State/Florida State over 60
UK/South Carolina under 51
Hawaii/Nevada over 64.5

[threrf23]

[Pacers_Freak]

Add FAU over 64

[bwgood77]

Freak went 6-4 last week. 19-16-1 on the season. Here is who I'm on this week:


Indiana +14 @ Mich State
Baylor/Iowa State over 54
Minnesota @ Purdue Pick'em
Cincy -3.5 @ Marshall
Ark State/Troy over 60
Ohio State/Nebraska over 66.5
NC State/Florida State over 60
UK/South Carolina under 51
Hawaii/Nevada over 64.5

Any thoughts on UCLA/AZ? Their avg combined PPG are 70 and PPGA is 72.8. Over/Under is around 71.5-72 and AZ opened as 9 pt favorites, but heavy action on UCLA has moved it under a TD at 6.5. https://www.espn.com/college-football/game/_/gameId/401114166

I wonder if people are too high on UCLA after that huge comeback last week. I didn't watch, but I imagine Wazzu was playing a lot of prevent D and probably got tired to allow such a comeback. Of course UCLA probably has confidence, but AZ is coming off a bye and are at home, though UCLA has definitely played a tougher schedule.

Also, what betting sites do you use? I used to use 5 dimes, but I don't know if I'd want to continue using them, even though I have a small balance there I think.

I am curious if anyone has used a site that has paid out, and they make it fairly easy to get paid out.

[threrf23]

Any thoughts on UCLA/AZ? Their avg combined PPG are 70 and PPGA is 72.8. Over/Under is around 71.5-72 and AZ opened as 9 pt favorites, but heavy action on UCLA has moved it under a TD at 6.5. https://www.espn.com/college-football/game/_/gameId/401114166

I wonder if people are too high on UCLA after that huge comeback last week. I didn't watch, but I imagine Wazzu was playing a lot of prevent D and probably got tired to allow such a comeback. Of course UCLA probably has confidence, but AZ is coming off a bye and are at home, though UCLA has definitely played a tougher schedule.

Also, what betting sites do you use? I used to use 5 dimes, but I don't know if I'd want to continue using them, even though I have a small balance there I think.

I am curious if anyone has used a site that has paid out, and they make it fairly easy to get paid out.

Arizona held Texas Tech to 14 points two weeks ago. Don't know how much of this was the UA defense as opposed to the Texas Tech offense, but entering the season AZ was expected to have a talented linebacker corps and a potentially good secondary. Kevin Sumlin's teams IMO typically play well when they feel urgency and/or are focused, and UCLA's explosion last week should help ensure that UA is focused coming off of its bye week.

On the flip side, Chip Kelly's offense was bound to break out at some point, and it had faced some solid defenses before breaking out last week. But there is little indication that UCLA's defense is up to snuff. Even going back two weeks, UCLA gave up 24 points to a Cincy team that scored 35 against Miami Ohio, and 23 points to a SDSU team that scored 31 vs New Mexico State, and 6 against Weber State.

In the end, I think this game is probably capped right, and if I had to pick a side I'd take Arizona and buy a half a point (-7).

I've been using 5dimes for a long time - the offer good parlay odds, good options, and while I haven't withdrawn in a little while, I have never had an issue to that effect.

Although, one reason I started using 5dimes years ago, is because I was banned from a great deal of other online sportsbooks. There is no good story behind it; I used to use betonusa.com, and one day they called me and a lady said "I'm calling from Bet on USA," but I thought she said "Barrons USA," and I was like "I don't have an account with you." This got me flagged on some fraud list that I couldn't get off of.

I'm 0-3 so far today, not so cool. fwiw the rest of the day, I feel best about Minnesota, SMU, and Akron.

[bwgood77]

Any thoughts on UCLA/AZ? Their avg combined PPG are 70 and PPGA is 72.8. Over/Under is around 71.5-72 and AZ opened as 9 pt favorites, but heavy action on UCLA has moved it under a TD at 6.5. https://www.espn.com/college-football/game/_/gameId/401114166

I wonder if people are too high on UCLA after that huge comeback last week. I didn't watch, but I imagine Wazzu was playing a lot of prevent D and probably got tired to allow such a comeback. Of course UCLA probably has confidence, but AZ is coming off a bye and are at home, though UCLA has definitely played a tougher schedule.

Also, what betting sites do you use? I used to use 5 dimes, but I don't know if I'd want to continue using them, even though I have a small balance there I think.

I am curious if anyone has used a site that has paid out, and they make it fairly easy to get paid out.

Arizona held Texas Tech to 14 points two weeks ago. Don't know how much of this was the UA defense as opposed to the Texas Tech offense, but entering the season AZ was expected to have a talented linebacker corps and a potentially good secondary. Kevin Sumlin's teams IMO typically play well when they feel urgency and/or are focused, and UCLA's explosion last week should help ensure that UA is focused coming off of its bye week.

On the flip side, Chip Kelly's offense was bound to break out at some point, and it had faced some solid defenses before breaking out last week. But there is little indication that UCLA's defense is up to snuff. Even going back two weeks, UCLA gave up 24 points to a Cincy team that scored 35 against Miami Ohio, and 23 points to a SDSU team that scored 31 vs New Mexico State, and 6 against Weber State.

In the end, I think this game is probably capped right, and if I had to pick a side I'd take Arizona and buy a half a point (-7).

I've been using 5dimes for a long time - the offer good parlay odds, good options, and while I haven't withdrawn in a little while, I have never had an issue to that effect.

Although, one reason I started using 5dimes years ago, is because I was banned from a great deal of other online sportsbooks. There is no good story behind it; I used to use betonusa.com, and one day they called me and a lady said "I'm calling from Bet on USA," but I thought she said "Barrons USA," and I was like "I don't have an account with you." This got me flagged on some fraud list that I couldn't get off of.

I'm 0-3 so far today, not so cool. fwiw the rest of the day, I feel best about Minnesota, SMU, and Akron.

Interesting you use 5 dimes as well. I might check it out and try the NFL tomorrow which is the sport I feel the most comfortable putting money on.

When you mention buying half a point, does 5 dimes have the spread at 7.5 now, because VegasInsider had all the books they track down at 6.5 last I checked. If it has moved back to 7.5 I imagine more will come in on UCLA. The books could lose badly here if AZ wins by 7, or probably even to some extent if they just simply cover.

[threrf23]

Interesting you use 5 dimes as well. I might check it out and try the NFL tomorrow which is the sport I feel the most comfortable putting money on.

When you mention buying half a point, does 5 dimes have the spread at 7.5 now, because VegasInsider had all the books they track down at 6.5 last I checked. If it has moved back to 7.5 I imagine more will come in on UCLA. The books could lose badly here if AZ wins by 7, or probably even to some extent if they just simply cover.

They probably have it at 6.5, I was looking at a non-refreshed covers.com scoreboard.

At -6.5, I'd still by half a point, and make it -6. Why not.

[bwgood77]

Interesting you use 5 dimes as well. I might check it out and try the NFL tomorrow which is the sport I feel the most comfortable putting money on.

When you mention buying half a point, does 5 dimes have the spread at 7.5 now, because VegasInsider had all the books they track down at 6.5 last I checked. If it has moved back to 7.5 I imagine more will come in on UCLA. The books could lose badly here if AZ wins by 7, or probably even to some extent if they just simply cover.

They probably have it at 6.5, I was looking at a non-refreshed covers.com scoreboard.

At -6.5, I'd still by half a point, and make it -6. Why not.

Interesting. I don't imagine many would buy that half point. I see it the other way. However, it would be interesting to see what the total % of games that end in 6 point margins is compared to 7 point margins, because obviously you see a lot of games end 13-7, 23-17, 30-24, etc. I've always figured when the books move it to 6.5 it's because they want more action to come in on the favorite..like they still have vastly more money on the underdog want it to move back, but maybe that's not always the case.

[bwgood77]

Interesting you use 5 dimes as well. I might check it out and try the NFL tomorrow which is the sport I feel the most comfortable putting money on.

When you mention buying half a point, does 5 dimes have the spread at 7.5 now, because VegasInsider had all the books they track down at 6.5 last I checked. If it has moved back to 7.5 I imagine more will come in on UCLA. The books could lose badly here if AZ wins by 7, or probably even to some extent if they just simply cover.

They probably have it at 6.5, I was looking at a non-refreshed covers.com scoreboard.

At -6.5, I'd still by half a point, and make it -6. Why not.

Interesting. I don't imagine many would buy that half point. I see it the other way. However, it would be interesting to see what the total % of games that end in 6 point margins is compared to 7 point margins, because obviously you see a lot of games end 13-7, 23-17, 30-24, etc. I've always figured when the books move it to 6.5 it's because they want more action to come in on the favorite..like they still have vastly more money on the underdog want it to move back, but maybe that's not always the case.

Wow, they announce late that Khalil Tate and JJ Taylor, starting QB and RB are out tonight, and a true freshman is starting at QB. All that money on UCLA looking good considering that. The spread ended up at AZ -3. I think that might be the most I've seen a spread move...maybe ever.

[threrf23]

Wow, they announce late that Khalil Tate and JJ Taylor, starting QB and RB are out tonight, and a true freshman is starting at QB. All that money on UCLA looking good considering that. The spread ended up at AZ -3. I think that might be the most I've seen a spread move...maybe ever.

The line on today's Houston / North Texas started Houston -2.5 and ended +6.5.

Houston's starting QB (D'Eric King), and an OL announced midweek that they were redshirting the season. It gave the impression that Houston was giving up on its season.

But King had returned from a knee injury and was only completing ~50% of his passes. His backup - who played fairly well in relief last season - was ready to go and might be an upgrade...which is why I included Houston in my parlays above.