RealGM

Went 8-4 last week to push the season total to 62-52-1. Been 16-5 the last two weeks. Looking to keep the hot streak going as the regular season ends.


VT -3 @ Virginia
Miami OH +3 @ Ball State
Missouri -12 @ Arkansas
Louisville +3 @ UK
Northwestern @ Illinois -8.5
Indiana @ Purdue Over 55
Wake -4 @ Syracuse
Middle Tenn @ W. Kentucky -8.5
Alabama @ Auburn Under 50
UAB -1 @ N. Texas
Georgia State @ G. Southern over 58
Texas A&M @ LSU over 61
UL Monroe @ Louisiana over 67
Oklahoma @ Oklahoma State over 69

I'm inclined to like UAB -1, and I'm going to caution against Illinois. While I'm not sure I'd bet against them, Northwestern has won 6 of their last 7 against Illinois. Plus their defense is still capable...and I might be overreacting to the one Illinois game I watched this year, but I think Illinois' QB sucks and is easily exposed against a good defense.

I don't typically do so well this week. Rivalry games are screwy and it can be a crapshoot as to who shows up motivated and prepared.

Anyways, here are some teams I like this week, based on the opening spread:

Wisconsin
Rice
Indiana
Nevada
SMU
Florida St

Also, If UAB and North Texas both show up motivated, I like the over in that game. UAB's defense is statistically dominant, but that's partially just because of a weak offensive strength of schedule. The toughest matchups their defense has faced were Tennessee and Southern Miss, and they gave up 30 both games. On the other side of the field, UNT's defense kind of sucks and UAB's players are likely anxious for an opportunity to run up a score.

And fwiw here's my shot in hell at $400k this weekend:

threrf23 wrote:I'm inclined to like UAB -1, and I'm going to caution against Illinois. While I'm not sure I'd bet against them, Northwestern has won 6 of their last 7 against Illinois. Plus their defense is still capable...and I might be overreacting to the one Illinois game I watched this year, but I think Illinois' QB sucks and is easily exposed against a good defense.

I don't typically do so well this week. Rivalry games are screwy and it can be a crapshoot as to who shows up motivated and prepared.

Anyways, here are some teams I like this week, based on the opening spread:

Wisconsin
Rice
Indiana
Nevada
SMU
Florida St

Also, If UAB and North Texas both show up motivated, I like the over in that game. UAB's defense is statistically dominant, but that's partially just because of a weak offensive strength of schedule. The toughest matchups their defense has faced were Tennessee and Southern Miss, and they gave up 30 both games. On the other side of the field, UNT's defense kind of sucks and UAB's players are likely anxious for an opportunity to run up a score.

And fwiw here's my shot in hell at $400k this weekend:

Indiana scares me. Purdue could possibly get Rondalle Moore back this week. I think Brohm is good at rallying the troops and will make this their bowl game. The whole TD scares me.

I agree I like Nevada as well. Part of my pause was UNLV is going to make a coaching change but Sanchez will coach this week. Players seem to really like him and could be a rally and win one for coach type of scenario.

Yeah, reading about Sanchez, I could also see UNLV rallying around him and winning a rivalry game. Or at least covering.

These are my plays for tomorrow.

My plays tomorrow:

threrf23 wrote:I'm inclined to like UAB -1, and I'm going to caution against Illinois. While I'm not sure I'd bet against them, Northwestern has won 6 of their last 7 against Illinois. Plus their defense is still capable...and I might be overreacting to the one Illinois game I watched this year, but I think Illinois' QB sucks and is easily exposed against a good defense.

I don't typically do so well this week. Rivalry games are screwy and it can be a crapshoot as to who shows up motivated and prepared.

Anyways, here are some teams I like this week, based on the opening spread:

Wisconsin
Rice
Indiana
Nevada
SMU
Florida St

Also, If UAB and North Texas both show up motivated, I like the over in that game. UAB's defense is statistically dominant, but that's partially just because of a weak offensive strength of schedule. The toughest matchups their defense has faced were Tennessee and Southern Miss, and they gave up 30 both games. On the other side of the field, UNT's defense kind of sucks and UAB's players are likely anxious for an opportunity to run up a score.

And fwiw here's my shot in hell at $400k this weekend:

Damn bro - how much is that ticket? I know you lost just curious how much to win $400k

azcatz11 wrote:
Damn bro - how much is that ticket? I know you lost just curious how much to win $400k

I lost $2 on that parlay.

If you don't buy points across the board like I did, you could probably win more than $400k betting a dollar or less (if you were to win a 25 team parlay).

Pacers_Freak wrote:

threrf23 wrote:I'm inclined to like UAB -1, and I'm going to caution against Illinois. While I'm not sure I'd bet against them, Northwestern has won 6 of their last 7 against Illinois. Plus their defense is still capable...and I might be overreacting to the one Illinois game I watched this year, but I think Illinois' QB sucks and is easily exposed against a good defense.

I don't typically do so well this week. Rivalry games are screwy and it can be a crapshoot as to who shows up motivated and prepared.

Anyways, here are some teams I like this week, based on the opening spread:

Wisconsin
Rice
Indiana
Nevada
SMU
Florida St

Also, If UAB and North Texas both show up motivated, I like the over in that game. UAB's defense is statistically dominant, but that's partially just because of a weak offensive strength of schedule. The toughest matchups their defense has faced were Tennessee and Southern Miss, and they gave up 30 both games. On the other side of the field, UNT's defense kind of sucks and UAB's players are likely anxious for an opportunity to run up a score.

And fwiw here's my shot in hell at $400k this weekend:

Indiana scares me. Purdue could possibly get Rondalle Moore back this week. I think Brohm is good at rallying the troops and will make this their bowl game. The whole TD scares me.

I agree I like Nevada as well. Part of my pause was UNLV is going to make a coaching change but Sanchez will coach this week. Players seem to really like him and could be a rally and win one for coach type of scenario.

I would rarely ever advise this, but I think the Chargers are a good bet today. After their bye week last week, they have Derwin James who has been out all season...he was voted All Pro as a rookie last year and is probably their most important defensive player. They had Adrian Phillips replace him but he immediately broke his arm. He is also back. This is a big boost to defense.

Secondly, they have their two starting tackles back. They have been out for a few weeks and Rivers has had no time and their running game suffered. Despite missing all those guys, they nearly beat the Chiefs in Mexico, and outgained them big time, but just couldn't convert to tds in red zone, kicking FGS instead...had outgained them like 300 yards to 50 in first half but were losing 10-9, going 3-4 on FGs. They got tds in the 2nd half. Rivers also threw 4 ints but this only happens with his tackles out..one was a desperation throw at the end.

Anyway, being very healthy today, after a bye week, and barely favored at Denver, I wouldn't be surprised if they beat them badly. But I guess nothing ever surprises me with them.

bwgood77 wrote:

Pacers_Freak wrote:

threrf23 wrote:I'm inclined to like UAB -1, and I'm going to caution against Illinois. While I'm not sure I'd bet against them, Northwestern has won 6 of their last 7 against Illinois. Plus their defense is still capable...and I might be overreacting to the one Illinois game I watched this year, but I think Illinois' QB sucks and is easily exposed against a good defense.

I don't typically do so well this week. Rivalry games are screwy and it can be a crapshoot as to who shows up motivated and prepared.

Anyways, here are some teams I like this week, based on the opening spread:

Wisconsin
Rice
Indiana
Nevada
SMU
Florida St

Also, If UAB and North Texas both show up motivated, I like the over in that game. UAB's defense is statistically dominant, but that's partially just because of a weak offensive strength of schedule. The toughest matchups their defense has faced were Tennessee and Southern Miss, and they gave up 30 both games. On the other side of the field, UNT's defense kind of sucks and UAB's players are likely anxious for an opportunity to run up a score.

And fwiw here's my shot in hell at $400k this weekend:

Indiana scares me. Purdue could possibly get Rondalle Moore back this week. I think Brohm is good at rallying the troops and will make this their bowl game. The whole TD scares me.

I agree I like Nevada as well. Part of my pause was UNLV is going to make a coaching change but Sanchez will coach this week. Players seem to really like him and could be a rally and win one for coach type of scenario.

I would rarely ever advise this, but I think the Chargers are a good bet today. After their bye week last week, they have Derwin James who has been out all season...he was voted All Pro as a rookie last year and is probably their most important defensive player. They had Adrian Phillips replace him but he immediately broke his arm. He is also back. This is a big boost to defense.

Secondly, they have their two starting tackles back. They have been out for a few weeks and Rivers has had no time and their running game suffered. Despite missing all those guys, they nearly beat the Chiefs in Mexico, and outgained them big time, but just couldn't convert to tds in red zone, kicking FGS instead...had outgained them like 300 yards to 50 in first half but were losing 10-9, going 3-4 on FGs. They got tds in the 2nd half. Rivers also threw 4 ints but this only happens with his tackles out..one was a desperation throw at the end.

Anyway, being very healthy today, after a bye week, and barely favored at Denver, I wouldn't be surprised if they beat them badly. But I guess nothing ever surprises me with them.

Von Miller out also