RealGM

Season long NBA Bets:

O/U

Lakers Under 44.5 - $1000 @ -115
Utah Over 23.5 - $750 @ -105
Indy Over 22.5 - $750 @ -125
GSW Under 52.5 - $500 @ -120
Mil Under 52.5 - $500 @ -115
NYK Over 38.5 - $500 @ -130

Playoffs

Indy Make - $50 @ +2500
LAL Miss - $500 @ +195
Memphis Miss $100 @ +525
BK Miss $200 @ +700

really going contrarian here

jasonxxx102 wrote:really going contrarian here

I don't see thinking that the Lakers are overvalued is a shocking take. Their mostly min salary depth is better than last season but still bad. IMO that upgrade gets cancelled out be LeBron getting older. The only real route for improvement is Davis, and while it's certainly possible he's a top-10 player going 70+ games I feel pretty comfortable betting against it.

For the rest, Mil and GSW have depth issues. Thats' bad for regular season wins, especially the way that every team has injury issues now (Middleton's already out a few games). Conversely, Indy and Utah have a fair amount of solid veterans filling their rosters. As players (and usually coaches) don't tank they'll grind out a decent number of wins. Even if they shed some guys midseason they'll be 25-30 win teams, not the real bottom of the league. The bottom of the league are almost always teams that can force-feed minutes to young (and currently bad) players.

In general I think the importance of solid veterans throughout a roster gets undervalued in over/under bets. For good teams it's all about the stars with too little attention to depth. With bad teams it's all about the kids - who will be worse than the vets fora few years.

Then a few low-money longshot playoff make/miss bets.

giberish wrote:Season long NBA Bets:

O/U

Lakers Under 44.5 - $1000 @ -115
Utah Over 23.5 - $750 @ -105
Indy Over 22.5 - $750 @ -125
GSW Under 52.5 - $500 @ -120
Mil Under 52.5 - $500 @ -115
NYK Over 38.5 - $500 @ -130

Playoffs

Indy Make - $50 @ +2500
LAL Miss - $500 @ +195
Memphis Miss $100 @ +525
BK Miss $200 @ +700

Majority of these looking great right now. Fantastic picks

AussieCeltic wrote:

giberish wrote:Season long NBA Bets:

O/U

Lakers Under 44.5 - $1000 @ -115
Utah Over 23.5 - $750 @ -105
Indy Over 22.5 - $750 @ -125
GSW Under 52.5 - $500 @ -120
Mil Under 52.5 - $500 @ -115
NYK Over 38.5 - $500 @ -130

Playoffs

Indy Make - $50 @ +2500
LAL Miss - $500 @ +195
Memphis Miss $100 @ +525
BK Miss $200 @ +700

Majority of these looking great right now. Fantastic picks

Still looking +EV

azcatz11 wrote:

AussieCeltic wrote:

giberish wrote:Season long NBA Bets:

O/U

Lakers Under 44.5 - $1000 @ -115
Utah Over 23.5 - $750 @ -105
Indy Over 22.5 - $750 @ -125
GSW Under 52.5 - $500 @ -120
Mil Under 52.5 - $500 @ -115
NYK Over 38.5 - $500 @ -130

Playoffs

Indy Make - $50 @ +2500
LAL Miss - $500 @ +195
Memphis Miss $100 @ +525
BK Miss $200 @ +700

Majority of these looking great right now. Fantastic picks

Still looking +EV

If you hit that Indy playoffs bet that will be huge. Over $5,400 a lot to put down but it looks like most of them will hit and the Indy would be a nice payoff on the bet....biggest win on smallest bet...more than make up for those last two that will very likely miss.

I bet nuggets 50,5 over and celtics 54,5 under.

What do you reckon?

bwgood77 wrote:

azcatz11 wrote:

AussieCeltic wrote:
Majority of these looking great right now. Fantastic picks

Still looking +EV

If you hit that Indy playoffs bet that will be huge. Over $5,400 a lot to put down but it looks like most of them will hit and the Indy would be a nice payoff on the bet....biggest win on smallest bet...more than make up for those last two that will very likely miss.

I didn't really think Indy was likely to make the playoffs - just that they were more like 10-1 odds against, so putting money with 25-1 was good odds. I figured they had 35-win talent, which would be easily enough to get to 23 wins even with a midseason 'win-later' trade. Though there was a chance they would be more like 40 win level, and at that point they don't make a tank trade and instead try for the playoffs.

It looks like a lot of money, but I just bet once per year. People putting money on a bunch of individual games several times a week are going to wager more money total.

giberish wrote:

bwgood77 wrote:

azcatz11 wrote:
Still looking +EV

If you hit that Indy playoffs bet that will be huge. Over $5,400 a lot to put down but it looks like most of them will hit and the Indy would be a nice payoff on the bet....biggest win on smallest bet...more than make up for those last two that will very likely miss.

I didn't really think Indy was likely to make the playoffs - just that they were more like 10-1 odds against, so putting money with 25-1 was good odds. I figured they had 35-win talent, which would be easily enough to get to 23 wins even with a midseason 'win-later' trade. Though there was a chance they would be more like 40 win level, and at that point they don't make a tank trade and instead try for the playoffs.

It looks like a lot of money, but I just bet once per year. People putting money on a bunch of individual games several times a week are going to wager more money total.

Oh sure, but people who bet that much are very likely to get beat, most of them fairly badly, because even if you finish with a winning betting %, you will lose too much money in juice.

I heard that the O/U on the Lakers this season is 56 games?? This is crazy, this is a no-brainer for the under. There is no way in hell Lakers even break the 50 game mark, let alone close to 60. You know how difficult for even contending teams in the west to reach 50+?

Beethoven wrote:I heard that the O/U on the Lakers this season is 56 games?? This is crazy, this is a no-brainer for the under. There is no way in hell Lakers even break the 50 game mark, let alone close to 60. You know how difficult for even contending teams in the west to reach 50+?

where did you hear that? it is around 47 everywhere.

baldur wrote:

Beethoven wrote:I heard that the O/U on the Lakers this season is 56 games?? This is crazy, this is a no-brainer for the under. There is no way in hell Lakers even break the 50 game mark, let alone close to 60. You know how difficult for even contending teams in the west to reach 50+?

where did you hear that? it is around 47 everywhere.

Sorry, I was just repeating what some other realgmer said in the general board ... i just assumed it was an official line he quoted. If it is 47, it is still sort of high. I would definitely take the under. Unless all of a sudden this year lebron and Ad stay healthy and reign supreme throughout the regular season. highly unlikely