Valkyrie expansion draft: rules and speculation

[Sealab2024]

Could be interesting for the Lynx. If they wanted to protect the top 6 rotation players (Phee, Alanna, McBridge, Carlton, Courtney Williams, Hines-Allen) that would leave plenty of interesting young players to poach: Dorka, Diamond Miller, and Alissa Pilli.

I think only Myisha Hines-Allen is a free agent.

Diamond Miller was the 2nd overall pick a year ago. 6'3" guard who can really drive the ball, but has turnover and efficiency problems. She injured her knee overseas and needed surgery this season. Combine that with Bridget Carlton's breakout and there hasn't been space in the rotation. Team got good this year and had to put the Diamond project on the backburner.

Would they leave Diamond Miller or Pilli vulnerable to keep a vet?

The Lynx having to put up 3 of their top 4 picks from the last 2 years would be brutal, especially if Maia Hirsch never amounts to anything, but i don't see a way around it. My guess would be they lose Miller who's still got a ton of top end talent.

[RSCD3_]

The protected players list won't be made public. Only the selected players will be notified. I was hoping they would make it public so the fans can have more fun with it and it would be more fun to watch on ESPN imo

It will be on espn or at least it will be televised, and it's expected to be on espn

[cdubbz]

The protected players list won't be made public. Only the selected players will be notified. I was hoping they would make it public so the fans can have more fun with it and it would be more fun to watch on ESPN imo

It will be on espn or at least it will be televised, and it's expected to be on espn

Exactly. I'm just saying it would be more fun for me to have the list public and ESPN would be able to have like a mock draft show a week before and then the actual expansion draft. Make it a big deal.

[MrDollarBills]

The protected players list won't be made public. Only the selected players will be notified. I was hoping they would make it public so the fans can have more fun with it and it would be more fun to watch on ESPN imo

It will be on espn or at least it will be televised, and it's expected to be on espn

Exactly. I'm just saying it would be more fun for me to have the list public and ESPN would be able to have like a mock draft show a week before and then the actual expansion draft. Make it a big deal.

Agreed. Every fan of the league has a stake in this draft since all 12 teams are impacted. I'm gonna be watching for sure

[DOT]

valkyrie probably wouldn't want to fill the roster with young players right? need a mix of veterans for some leadership/experience

I really wonder what the strategy is for Valkyries in year 1. I honestly don't see the point in trying to be competitive and put out a good product right away. I'd be happy watching a young group play for the first year.

If we were go through each roster and protect their top 6 players, I have a feeling the draft talent pool might be better than we think.

The Sun only have 3 players under contract and 4 players who are restricted or early restricted free agents (I think that's what ERFA means, I can't remember specifically)

If I had to bet, I think the Sun wouldn't protect AT and Bonner, but trade with the Valkyrie to have them pick someone else. Tiffany Mitchell and Astou Ndour-Fall are both likely not coming back next year for us, so I would assume it would go:

Protect Mabrey, Ty Harris, DJ, Olivia Nelson-Ododa, Veronica Burton, and Bri Jones, then send the Valkyrie some draft compensation to take Tiffany Mitchell who we were likely letting walk anyways due to the cap. Then re-sign AT, DeWanna, Bri Jones, and DJ, run it back for at least 1 more year with the same core because even if we have to give DJ a raise, letting Ndour-Fall and Mitchell walk frees up like $265k and neither were really that important to the team last year.

[MrDollarBills]

I really wonder what the strategy is for Valkyries in year 1. I honestly don't see the point in trying to be competitive and put out a good product right away. I'd be happy watching a young group play for the first year.

If we were go through each roster and protect their top 6 players, I have a feeling the draft talent pool might be better than we think.

The Sun only have 3 players under contract and 4 players who are restricted or early restricted free agents (I think that's what ERFA means, I can't remember specifically)

If I had to bet, I think the Sun wouldn't protect AT and Bonner, but trade with the Valkyrie to have them pick someone else. Tiffany Mitchell and Astou Ndour-Fall are both likely not coming back next year for us, so I would assume it would go:

Protect Mabrey, Ty Harris, DJ, Olivia Nelson-Ododa, Veronica Burton, and Bri Jones, then send the Valkyrie some draft compensation to take Tiffany Mitchell who we were likely letting walk anyways due to the cap. Then re-sign AT, DeWanna, Bri Jones, and DJ, run it back for at least 1 more year with the same core because even if we have to give DJ a raise, letting Ndour-Fall and Mitchell walk frees up like $265k and neither were really that important to the team last year.

Ah I didn't realize that the Sun had that many free agents. You guys should be alright. I wonder if someone throws a bag at Dijonai this summer, or she re ups with the Sun and waits for the big free agent scramble in '26?

Here's the current list of upcoming FAs if anyone needs to check their team

https://www.spotrac.com/wnba/free-agents/_/year/2025

[DOT]

If we were go through each roster and protect their top 6 players, I have a feeling the draft talent pool might be better than we think.

The Sun only have 3 players under contract and 4 players who are restricted or early restricted free agents (I think that's what ERFA means, I can't remember specifically)

If I had to bet, I think the Sun wouldn't protect AT and Bonner, but trade with the Valkyrie to have them pick someone else. Tiffany Mitchell and Astou Ndour-Fall are both likely not coming back next year for us, so I would assume it would go:

Protect Mabrey, Ty Harris, DJ, Olivia Nelson-Ododa, Veronica Burton, and Bri Jones, then send the Valkyrie some draft compensation to take Tiffany Mitchell who we were likely letting walk anyways due to the cap. Then re-sign AT, DeWanna, Bri Jones, and DJ, run it back for at least 1 more year with the same core because even if we have to give DJ a raise, letting Ndour-Fall and Mitchell walk frees up like $265k and neither were really that important to the team last year.

Ah I didn't realize that the Sun had that many free agents. You guys should be alright. I wonder if someone throws a bag at Dijonai this summer, or she re ups with the Sun and waits for the big free agent scramble in '26?

Here's the current list of upcoming FAs if anyone needs to check their team

https://www.spotrac.com/wnba/free-agents/_/year/2025

I think it depends on a few things

Honestly, I'm not opposed to letting Bri Jones walk and letting AT be the full time C. She did that last year and had easily the best year of her career, especially if it meant we could sign Kelsey Mitchell. I know this is more of an NBA concept, but imagine the spacing a Mitchell/Harris/Mabrey/Bonner lineup would have (I know DeWanna has never been a great 3pt shooter, but she does take enough you have to guard her). Would be a bit small defensively in the backcourt, but still. Would be one of the most unguardable half-court offenses in the league if you did it right.

[hermes]

lin dunn radio interview with some interesting tidbits
https://www.reddit.com/r/wnba/comments/1fuuqoa/lin_dunns_radio_interview_recap_from_today/
(not sure how to post a direct link, so here is the reddit thread where i found it)

- teams can protect unrestricted free agents (but i guess its a bit of a risk, if you aren't able to sign the person you protected)
- fever's main focus is kelsey mitchell
- 44 games next season
- sounds like they are going to change the 2-1 format in the first round, not sure if they'll go to five
- valkyrie can only pick one player from each team (so no one is getting gutted but everyone is losing someone)

[cdubbz]

Great article with lots of questions answered for expansion draft: Clears up some UFA/core questions I had previously.

https://herhoopstats.substack.com/p/wnba-golden-state-valkyries-expansion-draft-answers?r=3qo9m&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email&triedRedirect=true

So Golden State can take any unprotected unrestricted free agent with that one UFA pick?

Maybe, technically, but realistically no. There is a limit of two seasons played under the core designation. So if a player has played at least two years under a contract they signed while cored, they cannot be cored again. This offseason, there are six players who are about to become unrestricted free agents who fall into that category - DeWanna Bonner, Tina Charles, Brittney Griner, Natasha Howard, Brionna Jones and Nneka Ogwumike. Whether they technically could be selected as Golden State's one UFA expansion draft pick is debatable, but essentially they're excluded because there would be no point. They're all about to become true unrestricted free agents because their existing teams are not allowed to core them. Golden State also wouldn't be allowed to core them, so there would be no point selecting them.

Wait, so having played two or more seasons on a core contract means you're safe! That means Jewell Loyd, and Jonquel Jones, and Kahleah Copper etc. are safe and don't need to be protected, right?

No. No, no, no. It's the combination of being about to become an unrestricted free agent and not being able to be cored again that makes those specific six named safe from selection. Loyd, Copper and Jonquel Jones are all under contract with their respective teams. That means they need to be amongst the six protected spots of those teams to block Golden State from taking them in the expansion draft.

[cdubbz]

Sports Illustrated did mock expansion and rookie draft for the Valkyries:

G- Vandersloot, Nika Muhl, Dana Evans
G- Azzi Fudd, Karlie Samuelson
G - Diamond Miller, Celeste Taylor, Kate Martin
F - Nalyssa Smith, Stephanie Talbot, Nia Coffey
C - Olivia Nelson-Ododa, Kalani Brown

This is what I would expect from the draft: Lots of young talent on their rookie contracts surrounded by a few low maintenance veterans. Lots of playing time for the young players to see what we really have talent wise all while tanking for the worst record and get that number 1 draft pick to continue building.

https://www.si.com/onsi/womens-fastbreak/analysis/golden-state-valkyries-2025-wnba-roster-prediction-01j92mg52z84

[hermes]

i'd be ok with that. diamond miller seems like a bit of an odd fit on this lynx team

[MrDollarBills]

lin dunn radio interview with some interesting tidbits
https://www.reddit.com/r/wnba/comments/1fuuqoa/lin_dunns_radio_interview_recap_from_today/
(not sure how to post a direct link, so here is the reddit thread where i found it)

- teams can protect unrestricted free agents (but i guess its a bit of a risk, if you aren't able to sign the person you protected)
- fever's main focus is kelsey mitchell
- 44 games next season
- sounds like they are going to change the 2-1 format in the first round, not sure if they'll go to five
- valkyrie can only pick one player from each team (so no one is getting gutted but everyone is losing someone)

Very interesting thank you

I don't understand how an unrestricted free agent can be protected though? Why would a players with years of service and not under contract be eligible to be drafted?

1st round needs to expand to 5 games. Yeah, some teams might get smashed 3-0 but I would have liked to see CC and the Fever for at least one more game.

I think Mitchell wants to see what's out there for herself. As she should. But I hope she'd stay with Indiana

[MrDollarBills]

Sports Illustrated did mock expansion and rookie draft for the Valkyries:

G- Vandersloot, Nika Muhl, Dana Evans
G- Azzi Fudd, Karlie Samuelson
G - Diamond Miller, Celeste Taylor, Kate Martin
F - Nalyssa Smith, Stephanie Talbot, Nia Coffey
C - Olivia Nelson-Ododa, Kalani Brown

This is what I would expect from the draft: Lots of young talent on their rookie contracts surrounded by a few low maintenance veterans. Lots of playing time for the young players to see what we really have talent wise all while tanking for the worst record and get that number 1 draft pick to continue building.

https://www.si.com/onsi/womens-fastbreak/analysis/golden-state-valkyries-2025-wnba-roster-prediction-01j92mg52z84

That isn't necessarily a bad start. I think Sloot retires though before going to an expansion team.

[MrDollarBills]

i'd be ok with that. diamond miller seems like a bit of an odd fit on this lynx team

She needs room to grow.

[MrDollarBills]

Great article with lots of questions answered for expansion draft: Clears up some UFA/core questions I had previously.

https://herhoopstats.substack.com/p/wnba-golden-state-valkyries-expansion-draft-answers?r=3qo9m&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email&triedRedirect=true

So Golden State can take any unprotected unrestricted free agent with that one UFA pick?

Maybe, technically, but realistically no. There is a limit of two seasons played under the core designation. So if a player has played at least two years under a contract they signed while cored, they cannot be cored again. This offseason, there are six players who are about to become unrestricted free agents who fall into that category - DeWanna Bonner, Tina Charles, Brittney Griner, Natasha Howard, Brionna Jones and Nneka Ogwumike. Whether they technically could be selected as Golden State's one UFA expansion draft pick is debatable, but essentially they're excluded because there would be no point. They're all about to become true unrestricted free agents because their existing teams are not allowed to core them. Golden State also wouldn't be allowed to core them, so there would be no point selecting them.

Wait, so having played two or more seasons on a core contract means you're safe! That means Jewell Loyd, and Jonquel Jones, and Kahleah Copper etc. are safe and don't need to be protected, right?

No. No, no, no. It's the combination of being about to become an unrestricted free agent and not being able to be cored again that makes those specific six named safe from selection. Loyd, Copper and Jonquel Jones are all under contract with their respective teams. That means they need to be amongst the six protected spots of those teams to block Golden State from taking them in the expansion draft.

I don't understand how an unrestricted free agent is eligible to be drafted

Technically they can draft Elena Delle Donne because she's not officially retired

I don't like that. The draft should be players under contract

[cdubbz]

Sports Illustrated did mock expansion and rookie draft for the Valkyries:

G- Vandersloot, Nika Muhl, Dana Evans
G- Azzi Fudd, Karlie Samuelson
G - Diamond Miller, Celeste Taylor, Kate Martin
F - Nalyssa Smith, Stephanie Talbot, Nia Coffey
C - Olivia Nelson-Ododa, Kalani Brown

This is what I would expect from the draft: Lots of young talent on their rookie contracts surrounded by a few low maintenance veterans. Lots of playing time for the young players to see what we really have talent wise all while tanking for the worst record and get that number 1 draft pick to continue building.

https://www.si.com/onsi/womens-fastbreak/analysis/golden-state-valkyries-2025-wnba-roster-prediction-01j92mg52z84

That isn't necessarily a bad start. I think Sloot retires though before going to an expansion team.

Does she want championship contenders only? Maybe this would excite her -- not too many people get to be a part of an expansion teams inaugural season. Plus she can get paaaaaaid.

[MrDollarBills]

The Sun only have 3 players under contract and 4 players who are restricted or early restricted free agents (I think that's what ERFA means, I can't remember specifically)

If I had to bet, I think the Sun wouldn't protect AT and Bonner, but trade with the Valkyrie to have them pick someone else. Tiffany Mitchell and Astou Ndour-Fall are both likely not coming back next year for us, so I would assume it would go:

Protect Mabrey, Ty Harris, DJ, Olivia Nelson-Ododa, Veronica Burton, and Bri Jones, then send the Valkyrie some draft compensation to take Tiffany Mitchell who we were likely letting walk anyways due to the cap. Then re-sign AT, DeWanna, Bri Jones, and DJ, run it back for at least 1 more year with the same core because even if we have to give DJ a raise, letting Ndour-Fall and Mitchell walk frees up like $265k and neither were really that important to the team last year.

Ah I didn't realize that the Sun had that many free agents. You guys should be alright. I wonder if someone throws a bag at Dijonai this summer, or she re ups with the Sun and waits for the big free agent scramble in '26?

Here's the current list of upcoming FAs if anyone needs to check their team

https://www.spotrac.com/wnba/free-agents/_/year/2025

I think it depends on a few things

Honestly, I'm not opposed to letting Bri Jones walk and letting AT be the full time C. She did that last year and had easily the best year of her career, especially if it meant we could sign Kelsey Mitchell. I know this is more of an NBA concept, but imagine the spacing a Mitchell/Harris/Mabrey/Bonner lineup would have (I know DeWanna has never been a great 3pt shooter, but she does take enough you have to guard her). Would be a bit small defensively in the backcourt, but still. Would be one of the most unguardable half-court offenses in the league if you did it right.

Mitchell to the Sun would be pretty sick. She definitely seems like she'd be the missing piece

[MrDollarBills]

Sports Illustrated did mock expansion and rookie draft for the Valkyries:

G- Vandersloot, Nika Muhl, Dana Evans
G- Azzi Fudd, Karlie Samuelson
G - Diamond Miller, Celeste Taylor, Kate Martin
F - Nalyssa Smith, Stephanie Talbot, Nia Coffey
C - Olivia Nelson-Ododa, Kalani Brown

This is what I would expect from the draft: Lots of young talent on their rookie contracts surrounded by a few low maintenance veterans. Lots of playing time for the young players to see what we really have talent wise all while tanking for the worst record and get that number 1 draft pick to continue building.

https://www.si.com/onsi/womens-fastbreak/analysis/golden-state-valkyries-2025-wnba-roster-prediction-01j92mg52z84

That isn't necessarily a bad start. I think Sloot retires though before going to an expansion team.

Does she want championship contenders only? Maybe this would excite her -- not too many people get to be a part of an expansion teams inaugural season. Plus she can get paaaaaaid.

Oh I'm not sure. I'm speculating, she's 35 and while she is still a serviceable guard her best days are behind her. I dunno if she'd want to play on an expansion club in her final seasons

[DOT]

Mitchell to the Sun would be pretty sick. She definitely seems like she'd be the missing piece

Lowkey, a DJ for Mitchell swap would be really good for both teams.

[Green Chile]

Her Hoop Stat podcast had a solid breakdown.

Particularly understanding the free-agent/previously cored rules

For instance, the Sun likely don't need to protect Bonner or Jones as free agents that have already been cored twice.

If I'm understanding correctly, they could take them, but it would be pointless. They can't be cored again, and would thus still be free agents.

The Storm also are in a similar situation where they can basically protect 8 players.

Also, for any other newbies like me. Cored is basically the same as a franchise tag.