NCAAW Hoops talk!

[Doctor MJ]

Crossover post with the draft thread. Interesting impact of NIL:

Read on Twitter

So, there's no doubt that NIL is changing everything and that's got to be part of what's going on here, nevertheless, I'm surprised.

While someone like Notre Dame teammate Hannah Hidalgo might be able to earn millions from NIL, I wouldn't assume that a sidekick like Olivia Miles could get anywhere near that if we're just talking about companies who think it makes sense to have her endorse their product.

But of course she's entering the transfer portal, and while realistically there's no reason to expect she'll have a more high profile role wherever she goes next - she'll probably get drafted lower in a year than she would right now - any college looking to bribe talent to come to their team will presumably have to be the highest bidder, and who knows what number that will be.

And so my naive surprise - other than her leaving what's probably the optimal place for her to play so that she can have a successful WNBA career - is in the fact that the transfer portal really is just operating like pro free agency rather than something where a person being able to say yes to sincere endorsements.

Brave new world indeed.

[G R E Y]

Crossover post with the draft thread. Interesting impact of NIL:

Read on Twitter

So, there's no doubt that NIL is changing everything and that's got to be part of what's going on here, nevertheless, I'm surprised.

While someone like Notre Dame teammate Hannah Hidalgo might be able to earn millions from NIL, I wouldn't assume that a sidekick like Olivia Miles could get anywhere near that if we're just talking about companies who think it makes sense to have her endorse their product.

But of course she's entering the transfer portal, and while realistically there's no reason to expect she'll have a more high profile role wherever she goes next - she'll probably get drafted lower in a year than she would right now - any college looking to bribe talent to come to their team will presumably have to be the highest bidder, and who knows what number that will be.

And so my naive surprise - other than her leaving what's probably the optimal place for her to play so that she can have a successful WNBA career - is in the fact that the transfer portal really is just operating like pro free agency rather than something where a person being able to say yes to sincere endorsements.

Brave new world indeed.

Yeah uncharted territory and she's making her own way. There must be incentive for her to go this route, though. With the current WNBA payscale landscape, Miles may not make millions like perhaps others, but it will certainly be more than enough to turn down an even potentially higher rookie contract now than in the future.

On the one hand, as someone else pointed out, this gives other players a bigger, better shot in a given draft. It also gives players more power with respect to where they play (if they don't want to play for any given crop of bottom teams) and where they can make money in the meantime.

On the other, it throws a wrench into team plans if they are set on a player who could be transformative for their program growth.

It is quite different compared to the NBA where NIL may be more of an incentive for a player projected to go lower in the first round (though best teams tend to choose there) or in the second round where contracts are not guaranteed. They can stay longer, work on their game, and have a stronger financial foundation, which may result in a better draft position. Still, it's rare for NBA money to be turned down overall.

With the WNBA contracts being what they are, it'll be interesting to see whether other higher end prospects delay entering the pros for bigger money and better control of their fate.

[Doctor MJ]

Crossover post with the draft thread. Interesting impact of NIL:

Read on Twitter

So, there's no doubt that NIL is changing everything and that's got to be part of what's going on here, nevertheless, I'm surprised.

While someone like Notre Dame teammate Hannah Hidalgo might be able to earn millions from NIL, I wouldn't assume that a sidekick like Olivia Miles could get anywhere near that if we're just talking about companies who think it makes sense to have her endorse their product.

But of course she's entering the transfer portal, and while realistically there's no reason to expect she'll have a more high profile role wherever she goes next - she'll probably get drafted lower in a year than she would right now - any college looking to bribe talent to come to their team will presumably have to be the highest bidder, and who knows what number that will be.

And so my naive surprise - other than her leaving what's probably the optimal place for her to play so that she can have a successful WNBA career - is in the fact that the transfer portal really is just operating like pro free agency rather than something where a person being able to say yes to sincere endorsements.

Brave new world indeed.

Yeah uncharted territory and she's making her own way. There must be incentive for her to go this route, though. With the current WNBA payscale landscape, Miles may not make millions like perhaps others, but it will certainly be more than enough to turn down an even potentially higher rookie contract now than in the future.

On the one hand, as someone else pointed out, this gives other players a bigger, better shot in a given draft. It also gives players more power with respect to where they play (if they don't want to play for any given crop of bottom teams) and where they can make money in the meantime.

On the other, it throws a wrench into team plans if they are set on a player who could be transformative for their program growth.

It is quite different compared to the NBA where NIL may be more of an incentive for a player projected to go lower in the first round (though best teams tend to choose there) or in the second round where contracts are not guaranteed. They can stay longer, work on their game, and have a stronger financial foundation, which may result in a better draft position. Still, it's rare for NBA money to be turned down overall.

With the WNBA contracts being what they are, it'll be interesting to see whether other higher end prospects delay entering the pros for bigger money and better control of their fate.

Yup, very interesting and I welcome further dialogue on the subject.

A then I feel a need to emphasize though:

It was always pretty amazing to me when Miles got listed as the #2 prospect in this draft, because she's a 22 year old who is nowhere near a Top 5 player in college right now. We're talking about someone who will probably be a WNBA role player who if we were talking about NBA draft analogues, would likely be drafted outside the lottery.

So, Miles going pro this year would have allowed her to go to a team where she was an absolutely perfect fit which maximize her chance for long-term pro success...and she's turning that down not to come back and win a chip with her school, but to go full college mercenary for one year.

Not saying this doesn't make sense. Rather saying, "Holy cow, I guess this makes sense somehow!". We'd presume it makes sense then because she's expecting to get WAY more money to play one more year of college ball as a sidekick than she expects to make annually in the W. And that just seems crazy. I assume she knows better than I do...but I feel like stuff like this is going to blow up in the face of some of the student athletes who do it.

[G R E Y]

So, there's no doubt that NIL is changing everything and that's got to be part of what's going on here, nevertheless, I'm surprised.

While someone like Notre Dame teammate Hannah Hidalgo might be able to earn millions from NIL, I wouldn't assume that a sidekick like Olivia Miles could get anywhere near that if we're just talking about companies who think it makes sense to have her endorse their product.

But of course she's entering the transfer portal, and while realistically there's no reason to expect she'll have a more high profile role wherever she goes next - she'll probably get drafted lower in a year than she would right now - any college looking to bribe talent to come to their team will presumably have to be the highest bidder, and who knows what number that will be.

And so my naive surprise - other than her leaving what's probably the optimal place for her to play so that she can have a successful WNBA career - is in the fact that the transfer portal really is just operating like pro free agency rather than something where a person being able to say yes to sincere endorsements.

Brave new world indeed.

Yeah uncharted territory and she's making her own way. There must be incentive for her to go this route, though. With the current WNBA payscale landscape, Miles may not make millions like perhaps others, but it will certainly be more than enough to turn down an even potentially higher rookie contract now than in the future.

On the one hand, as someone else pointed out, this gives other players a bigger, better shot in a given draft. It also gives players more power with respect to where they play (if they don't want to play for any given crop of bottom teams) and where they can make money in the meantime.

On the other, it throws a wrench into team plans if they are set on a player who could be transformative for their program growth.

It is quite different compared to the NBA where NIL may be more of an incentive for a player projected to go lower in the first round (though best teams tend to choose there) or in the second round where contracts are not guaranteed. They can stay longer, work on their game, and have a stronger financial foundation, which may result in a better draft position. Still, it's rare for NBA money to be turned down overall.

With the WNBA contracts being what they are, it'll be interesting to see whether other higher end prospects delay entering the pros for bigger money and better control of their fate.

Yup, very interesting and I welcome further dialogue on the subject.

A then I feel a need to emphasize though:

It was always pretty amazing to me when Miles got listed as the #2 prospect in this draft, because she's a 22 year old who is nowhere near a Top 5 player in college right now. We're talking about someone who will probably be a WNBA role player who if we were talking about NBA draft analogues, would likely be drafted outside the lottery.

So, Miles going pro this year would have allowed her to go to a team where she was an absolutely perfect fit which maximize her chance for long-term pro success...and she's turning that down not to come back and win a chip with her school, but to go full college mercenary for one year.

Not saying this doesn't make sense. Rather saying, "Holy cow, I guess this makes sense somehow!". We'd presume it makes sense then because she's expecting to get WAY more money to play one more year of college ball as a sidekick than she expects to make annually in the W. And that just seems crazy. I assume she knows better than I do...but I feel like stuff like this is going to blow up in the face of some of the student athletes who do it.

Makes you wonder, then, about the advice she's given or turned down. This new money making potential will bring with it a whole new host of 'advisors' - life experience experts, long lost cousins, sure fire investment opportunities, friends from way back, etc., etc. In other words, with every dollar there's a new lure or temptation or you never know which loan needs immediate attention or real life situation (ie/medical) that needs tending to. It's a lot. I hope she's well looked after and strong and clear minded.

[Green Chile]

Yeah, whether it's the right decision or not, passing up a chance to go to Seattle is a tough one. In the history of the WNBA, they have probably been the strongest overall. Owner willing to invest, and fantastic facilities. But maybe she goes to well-run organization with good facilities next year (won't be Phoenix because they don't keep 1st round picks).

And the mercenary thing seems like such a risk. The upside is HVL this year. The downside is HVL last year.
She is in a spot to excel at ND, and just saw her draft stock rise going there. She must be really confident she can succeed without defenses having to focus on Hidalgo.

UConn and South Carolina have an opening at guard for next year if she's looking for a title run

Curious if she'd choose any of those. Playing for Geno or Dawn doesn't seem like something that would work for one year for a player that's not a good defender (presumably) looking to put up big offensive numbers.

It would seem she's going somewhere where she can put up big numbers (total guess). Another total guess, but Kentucky would be a great fit. Georgia Amoore would be the #2 pick in this draft if she were the same height as Miles. Could be a good fit.

Can't deny the NIL money, for sure, but passing up both a college situation that suited her and being the #2 pick to a great organization is a heck of a dice roll.

[Green Chile]

I have to get up at 3 every morning, so can't watch these late games live.

It was never going to happen with Juju out and UConn on a warpath, but kudos to the USC kids. They were really impressive.

But holy hell, Sarah Strong. NC kid, I just want to say. She's a transcendent talent. There are a lot of fantastic freshmen in this class, including Mikayla Blakes with multitple 50 point games in the SEC. But FOY was never in doubt. She's going to rank high in the great pantheon of UConn greats.

[ellobo]

Crossover post with the draft thread. Interesting impact of NIL:

Read on Twitter

So, there's no doubt that NIL is changing everything and that's got to be part of what's going on here, nevertheless, I'm surprised.

While someone like Notre Dame teammate Hannah Hidalgo might be able to earn millions from NIL, I wouldn't assume that a sidekick like Olivia Miles could get anywhere near that if we're just talking about companies who think it makes sense to have her endorse their product.

But of course she's entering the transfer portal, and while realistically there's no reason to expect she'll have a more high profile role wherever she goes next - she'll probably get drafted lower in a year than she would right now - any college looking to bribe talent to come to their team will presumably have to be the highest bidder, and who knows what number that will be.

And so my naive surprise - other than her leaving what's probably the optimal place for her to play so that she can have a successful WNBA career - is in the fact that the transfer portal really is just operating like pro free agency rather than something where a person being able to say yes to sincere endorsements.

Brave new world indeed.

As I understand it, and anyone out there more knowledgeable feel free to correct or clarify, there's really two aspects to NIL.

One is that players are free to make endorsement deals. So marketable stars like Clark, Reese, Brink, Flau'jae, Paige, and JuJu can appear in major national corporate ad campaigns and so forth. A lot of these endorsement deals would undoubtedly follow a player from college to the pros.

But then there are also pools of money from donors/boosters administered by NIL collectives affiliated with schools (as I understand it, state laws vary as to how closely NIL collectives can coordinate with coaches and schools themselves), which is probably the majority of NIL money, or at least more directly applicable to the vast majority of athletes. This is where high school or transfer recruits get a bag thrown at them to attend a specific school. Since this money is connected to a specific school, it's only going to be there as long as the athlete is at that school.

I would expect that someone like Miles is not so much nationally marketable, and would do a lot better with school-affiliated NIL, especially auctioning off her services to the highest bidder in the portal, as compared to a WNBA rookie salary plus whatever endorsements she could find.

[Ice Man]

I have paid only mild attention to NCAAW regular season. Enough to believe that Paige Bueckers had been a mild disappointment this year, because Connecticut didn't win enough games to be a #1 seed in the tournament, and on this board she is almost never mentioned. There must be at least 5x as many JuJu mentions as there are of Paige. Plus, JuJu was named Player of the Year by The Athletic.

But ... I just looked up the numbers ... holy hell, Paige was GREAT. Yes, she scored 5 fewer points per 40 than JuJu, but with FAR better shooting efficiency. I mean, not remotely comparable -- 64% vs. 55%. Paige could easily have outscored JuJu if she had so chosen, by taking a few more shots. She also matches JuJu for rebounds & steals, while having twice as many assists and slightly fewer turnovers. Naturally, then, Paige had higher scores for every advanced stat.

I mean, JuJu is younger and college performances don't necessarily translate 1 for 1 to the professional level. So, if you want to argue that JuJu will eventually be the better player, that's fine. But she's not now. It's just that voters and onlookers developed Paige fatigue.

[Green Chile]

Paige is it. Probably some fatigue.

But she does it all. And with incredible efficiency. Her and Caitlin are going to be an incredible rivalry.

[Green Chile]

Might be some other stuff involved. Freshman Kate Koval is transferring out too

[hermes]

could be blue blood fatigue too. the sport is starting to break free from the hold of a few dominant schools and people are finding some exciting and interesting stories out there (its more than just uconn!)

whether its great players staying home (clark and watkins) or going to non-blue bloods (plum and ionescu), that's a lot more interesting and fun to me than just the next great uconn player.

[Ice Man]

could be blue blood fatigue too. the sport is starting to break free from the hold of a few dominant schools and people are finding some exciting and interesting stories out there (its more than just uconn!)

whether its great players staying home (clark and watkins) or going to non-blue bloods (plum and ionescu), that's a lot more interesting and fun to me than just the next great uconn player.

Yes, I understand. I have no use for UConn myself. Plus it's fair and reasonable to credit JuJu for elevating USC"s program. But Paige was still this season's best player.

[Doctor MJ]

I have paid only mild attention to NCAAW regular season. Enough to believe that Paige Bueckers had been a mild disappointment this year, because Connecticut didn't win enough games to be a #1 seed in the tournament, and on this board she is almost never mentioned. There must be at least 5x as many JuJu mentions as there are of Paige. Plus, JuJu was named Player of the Year by The Athletic.

But ... I just looked up the numbers ... holy hell, Paige was GREAT. Yes, she scored 5 fewer points per 40 than JuJu, but with FAR better shooting efficiency. I mean, not remotely comparable -- 64% vs. 55%. Paige could easily have outscored JuJu if she had so chosen, by taking a few more shots. She also matches JuJu for rebounds & steals, while having twice as many assists and slightly fewer turnovers. Naturally, then, Paige had higher scores for every advanced stat.

I mean, JuJu is younger and college performances don't necessarily translate 1 for 1 to the professional level. So, if you want to argue that JuJu will eventually be the better player, that's fine. But she's not now. It's just that voters and onlookers developed Paige fatigue.

Great post to see. To share some thoughts:

1. UConn lost 2 high profile matchups early in the season against Notre Dame & UConn. In those games Paige got considerably outshone by Hannah Hidalgo and JuJu Watkins respectively, and this put those two ahead of Paige in POY contention without Paige really being able to surpass them all that easily. Hidalgo's shine dimmed as the Irish's luck fell Murphy, but JuJu's burnt even brighter as the season progress. Along the way we also had Lauren Betts leading UCLA to an undefeated record for much of the way which set up 3 USC/UCLA showdowns between JuJu & Betts that allowed one of them to really grab hold of attention and not let go. I won't say JuJu quite got there even before her injury, because UCLA won the last match up and really seemed like they'd figured some thing out, but I'd say just taking the 3 games as a series (with USC 2, UCLA 1), JuJu was the series MVP.

2. We should also note that it may well be that the right way to play a Paige-based team is a lot like how Caitlin Clark's teams have always played with her...but UConn doesn't play that way. I think you can absolutely argue that Paige going to UConn cost her the POY this year...though we should also remember that she DID win it as a freshman despite the fact that Clark was probably more impressive as a freshman that year than Paige has literally ever been. (I remembered looking at the numbers at the time and thinking, "Shouldn't Clark be the break out freshman star over Paige?")

So in that alternative universe where, say, Paige stays home and goes to Minnesota, she might have just as many POY years as she ended up with at UConn, she'd just get that POY in '24-25 instead of '20-21.

3. In terms of JuJu's shooting efficiency, this is basically the right point to make in favor of Paige. I think we should note that JuJu's efficiency is better than last year, but it still really needs to get better for her to live up to the "best scorer in the game" hype that people began talking about last year. In a nutshell, those folks are just plain overrating JuJu's scoring effectiveness.

However:

4. Let there be no doubt that JuJu was a very valuable offensive player last year, and she was even better this year. Most valuable offensive player in the NCAA? Nah, that was Clark last year and Paige this year, but still, this was never a situation where there's any evidence that USC's offense would have been better with JuJu taking on a secondary role.

And:

5. The impact indicators from CBB Analytics of JuJu on defense are huge. Last year she was just barely behind Cameron Brink as the top defensive player in her conference, and this year she pretty easily leads the way as the most impactful defensive player in the Big Ten. My Bruin Betts won the conference DPOY over her, but I would say this was a mistake. Betts should probably be considered the Big Ten Offensive POY (which they of course don't give out) ever so slightly over JuJu, but defensively, Betts isn't as good as that, and JuJu is better. I'll also note that USC was a team winning primarily with defense all year while UCLA was winning primarily with offense.

Mind you, JuJu is STILL giving you more offensive impact than defensive impact by these metrics by a little, but just in general offensive impact is king (and queen) nowadays.

6. This then to say, we're in a weird place with JuJu where I think she's a bit overrated offensively, but definitely underrated defensively, and this leads to in the end her impact being just about right. And then of course there's the matter that JuJu outlier athleticism makes it easy to imagine her just getting better and better.

For myself, I think either Paige or JuJu are good choices for POY, but frankly just looking at the regular season, I'd probably give JuJu the nod because she looked better in the head-to-head and led the slightly more impressive team.

Very last note, the consensus Top 5 players this year are:

JuJu Watkins, Soph, USC
Paige Bueckers, Super-Senior, UConn
Lauren Betts, Junior, UCLA
Hannah Hidalgo, Soph, Notre Dame
Madison Booker, Soph, Texas

There's a name missing that frankly seems like she deserved to be there arguably over Hidalgo or Booker:

Sarah Strong, Fresh, UConn

Last year both JuJu & Hidalgo made 1st team as freshman (with fellow freshman Booker on 2nd team), but I believe Strong was actually more valuable as a freshman this year than any of those freshman were.

We should keep this in mind when we think about the fact that Paige is at UConn which has been THE dominant program for close to a quarter century now. Yes all these programs have great supporting talent around their star, but the 2nd best player on UConn (Strong) is probably better than any 2nd best player in the country, and she seems poised to be a very strong POY candidate next year and to be a #1 overall draft pick in the not too distant future. Paige most definitely isn't out there alone.

ftr, I expect Betts to be the pre-season favorite for POY next year since she's staying (and JuJu's hurt), but I'd probably put Strong as the next most likely winner.

[RSCD3_]

So, there's no doubt that NIL is changing everything and that's got to be part of what's going on here, nevertheless, I'm surprised.

While someone like Notre Dame teammate Hannah Hidalgo might be able to earn millions from NIL, I wouldn't assume that a sidekick like Olivia Miles could get anywhere near that if we're just talking about companies who think it makes sense to have her endorse their product.

But of course she's entering the transfer portal, and while realistically there's no reason to expect she'll have a more high profile role wherever she goes next - she'll probably get drafted lower in a year than she would right now - any college looking to bribe talent to come to their team will presumably have to be the highest bidder, and who knows what number that will be.

And so my naive surprise - other than her leaving what's probably the optimal place for her to play so that she can have a successful WNBA career - is in the fact that the transfer portal really is just operating like pro free agency rather than something where a person being able to say yes to sincere endorsements.

Brave new world indeed.

Yeah uncharted territory and she's making her own way. There must be incentive for her to go this route, though. With the current WNBA payscale landscape, Miles may not make millions like perhaps others, but it will certainly be more than enough to turn down an even potentially higher rookie contract now than in the future.

On the one hand, as someone else pointed out, this gives other players a bigger, better shot in a given draft. It also gives players more power with respect to where they play (if they don't want to play for any given crop of bottom teams) and where they can make money in the meantime.

On the other, it throws a wrench into team plans if they are set on a player who could be transformative for their program growth.

It is quite different compared to the NBA where NIL may be more of an incentive for a player projected to go lower in the first round (though best teams tend to choose there) or in the second round where contracts are not guaranteed. They can stay longer, work on their game, and have a stronger financial foundation, which may result in a better draft position. Still, it's rare for NBA money to be turned down overall.

With the WNBA contracts being what they are, it'll be interesting to see whether other higher end prospects delay entering the pros for bigger money and better control of their fate.

Yup, very interesting and I welcome further dialogue on the subject.

A then I feel a need to emphasize though:

It was always pretty amazing to me when Miles got listed as the #2 prospect in this draft, because she's a 22 year old who is nowhere near a Top 5 player in college right now. We're talking about someone who will probably be a WNBA role player who if we were talking about NBA draft analogues, would likely be drafted outside the lottery.

So, Miles going pro this year would have allowed her to go to a team where she was an absolutely perfect fit which maximize her chance for long-term pro success...and she's turning that down not to come back and win a chip with her school, but to go full college mercenary for one year.

Not saying this doesn't make sense. Rather saying, "Holy cow, I guess this makes sense somehow!". We'd presume it makes sense then because she's expecting to get WAY more money to play one more year of college ball as a sidekick than she expects to make annually in the W. And that just seems crazy. I assume she knows better than I do...but I feel like stuff like this is going to blow up in the face of some of the student athletes who do it.

Besides the clear opportunity for Olivia Miles to make more money from the NIL as a transfer there's also the news of more and more ND athletes entering the portal, as of now Hidalgo and Prosper are the only ones with significant minutes from last year returning, and a speculation which maybe have a fair amount of credence is the potential homophobic attitude of Hannah Hidalgo. She already made waves earlier last year by sharing a Candace Owens video that decried gay marriage as a sin (Article on it: https://www.themirror.com/sport/basketball/hannah-hidalgo-social-media-instagram-595773) , deleted it after backlash and failed to address it at all afterwards.

Recently Olivia reposted this tiktok on her account

(

Read on Twitter

)

Transcript of TT "Treating ppl right is better than posting bible verses that you dont even practice. cant treat ppl bad then hide behind religion" which many are seeing as a jab towards her on the way out. And of course with how prevalent gay women are in women's sport, including basketball there's thoughts that this is if not completely, is at least partly behind the fracturing of the team as everyone has left.

[Green Chile]

Avery Howell entering the portal.

I was afraid this sort of thing might happen following Juju's injury.

[Doctor MJ]

Yeah uncharted territory and she's making her own way. There must be incentive for her to go this route, though. With the current WNBA payscale landscape, Miles may not make millions like perhaps others, but it will certainly be more than enough to turn down an even potentially higher rookie contract now than in the future.

On the one hand, as someone else pointed out, this gives other players a bigger, better shot in a given draft. It also gives players more power with respect to where they play (if they don't want to play for any given crop of bottom teams) and where they can make money in the meantime.

On the other, it throws a wrench into team plans if they are set on a player who could be transformative for their program growth.

It is quite different compared to the NBA where NIL may be more of an incentive for a player projected to go lower in the first round (though best teams tend to choose there) or in the second round where contracts are not guaranteed. They can stay longer, work on their game, and have a stronger financial foundation, which may result in a better draft position. Still, it's rare for NBA money to be turned down overall.

With the WNBA contracts being what they are, it'll be interesting to see whether other higher end prospects delay entering the pros for bigger money and better control of their fate.

Yup, very interesting and I welcome further dialogue on the subject.

A then I feel a need to emphasize though:

It was always pretty amazing to me when Miles got listed as the #2 prospect in this draft, because she's a 22 year old who is nowhere near a Top 5 player in college right now. We're talking about someone who will probably be a WNBA role player who if we were talking about NBA draft analogues, would likely be drafted outside the lottery.

So, Miles going pro this year would have allowed her to go to a team where she was an absolutely perfect fit which maximize her chance for long-term pro success...and she's turning that down not to come back and win a chip with her school, but to go full college mercenary for one year.

Not saying this doesn't make sense. Rather saying, "Holy cow, I guess this makes sense somehow!". We'd presume it makes sense then because she's expecting to get WAY more money to play one more year of college ball as a sidekick than she expects to make annually in the W. And that just seems crazy. I assume she knows better than I do...but I feel like stuff like this is going to blow up in the face of some of the student athletes who do it.

Besides the clear opportunity for Olivia Miles to make more money from the NIL as a transfer there's also the news of more and more ND athletes entering the portal, as of now Hidalgo and Prosper are the only ones with significant minutes from last year returning, and a speculation which maybe have a fair amount of credence is the potential homophobic attitude of Hannah Hidalgo. She already made waves earlier last year by sharing a Candace Owens video that decried gay marriage as a sin (Article on it: https://www.themirror.com/sport/basketball/hannah-hidalgo-social-media-instagram-595773) , deleted it after backlash and failed to address it at all afterwards.

Recently Olivia reposted this tiktok on her account

(

Read on Twitter

)

Transcript of TT "Treating ppl right is better than posting bible verses that you dont even practice. cant treat ppl bad then hide behind religion" which many are seeing as a jab towards her on the way out. And of course with how prevalent gay women are in women's sport, including basketball there's thoughts that this is if not completely, is at least partly behind the fracturing of the team as everyone has left.

Whoa!

[Green Chile]

I have paid only mild attention to NCAAW regular season. Enough to believe that Paige Bueckers had been a mild disappointment this year, because Connecticut didn't win enough games to be a #1 seed in the tournament, and on this board she is almost never mentioned. There must be at least 5x as many JuJu mentions as there are of Paige. Plus, JuJu was named Player of the Year by The Athletic.

But ... I just looked up the numbers ... holy hell, Paige was GREAT. Yes, she scored 5 fewer points per 40 than JuJu, but with FAR better shooting efficiency. I mean, not remotely comparable -- 64% vs. 55%. Paige could easily have outscored JuJu if she had so chosen, by taking a few more shots. She also matches JuJu for rebounds & steals, while having twice as many assists and slightly fewer turnovers. Naturally, then, Paige had higher scores for every advanced stat.

I mean, JuJu is younger and college performances don't necessarily translate 1 for 1 to the professional level. So, if you want to argue that JuJu will eventually be the better player, that's fine. But she's not now. It's just that voters and onlookers developed Paige fatigue.

Great post to see. To share some thoughts:

1. UConn lost 2 high profile matchups early in the season against Notre Dame & UConn. In those games Paige got considerably outshone by Hannah Hidalgo and JuJu Watkins respectively, and this put those two ahead of Paige in POY contention without Paige really being able to surpass them all that easily. Hidalgo's shine dimmed as the Irish's luck fell Murphy, but JuJu's burnt even brighter as the season progress. Along the way we also had Lauren Betts leading UCLA to an undefeated record for much of the way which set up 3 USC/UCLA showdowns between JuJu & Betts that allowed one of them to really grab hold of attention and not let go. I won't say JuJu quite got there even before her injury, because UCLA won the last match up and really seemed like they'd figured some thing out, but I'd say just taking the 3 games as a series (with USC 2, UCLA 1), JuJu was the series MVP.

2. We should also note that it may well be that the right way to play a Paige-based team is a lot like how Caitlin Clark's teams have always played with her...but UConn doesn't play that way. I think you can absolutely argue that Paige going to UConn cost her the POY this year...though we should also remember that she DID win it as a freshman despite the fact that Clark was probably more impressive as a freshman that year than Paige has literally ever been. (I remembered looking at the numbers at the time and thinking, "Shouldn't Clark be the break out freshman star over Paige?")

So in that alternative universe where, say, Paige stays home and goes to Minnesota, she might have just as many POY years as she ended up with at UConn, she'd just get that POY in '24-25 instead of '20-21.

3. In terms of JuJu's shooting efficiency, this is basically the right point to make in favor of Paige. I think we should note that JuJu's efficiency is better than last year, but it still really needs to get better for her to live up to the "best scorer in the game" hype that people began talking about last year. In a nutshell, those folks are just plain overrating JuJu's scoring effectiveness.

However:

4. Let there be no doubt that JuJu was a very valuable offensive player last year, and she was even better this year. Most valuable offensive player in the NCAA? Nah, that was Clark last year and Paige this year, but still, this was never a situation where there's any evidence that USC's offense would have been better with JuJu taking on a secondary role.

And:

5. The impact indicators from CBB Analytics of JuJu on defense are huge. Last year she was just barely behind Cameron Brink as the top defensive player in her conference, and this year she pretty easily leads the way as the most impactful defensive player in the Big Ten. My Bruin Betts won the conference DPOY over her, but I would say this was a mistake. Betts should probably be considered the Big Ten Offensive POY (which they of course don't give out) ever so slightly over JuJu, but defensively, Betts isn't as good as that, and JuJu is better. I'll also note that USC was a team winning primarily with defense all year while UCLA was winning primarily with offense.

Mind you, JuJu is STILL giving you more offensive impact than defensive impact by these metrics by a little, but just in general offensive impact is king (and queen) nowadays.

6. This then to say, we're in a weird place with JuJu where I think she's a bit overrated offensively, but definitely underrated defensively, and this leads to in the end her impact being just about right. And then of course there's the matter that JuJu outlier athleticism makes it easy to imagine her just getting better and better.

For myself, I think either Paige or JuJu are good choices for POY, but frankly just looking at the regular season, I'd probably give JuJu the nod because she looked better in the head-to-head and led the slightly more impressive team.

Very last note, the consensus Top 5 players this year are:

JuJu Watkins, Soph, USC
Paige Bueckers, Super-Senior, UConn
Lauren Betts, Junior, UCLA
Hannah Hidalgo, Soph, Notre Dame
Madison Booker, Soph, Texas

There's a name missing that frankly seems like she deserved to be there arguably over Hidalgo or Booker:

Sarah Strong, Fresh, UConn

Last year both JuJu & Hidalgo made 1st team as freshman (with fellow freshman Booker on 2nd team), but I believe Strong was actually more valuable as a freshman this year than any of those freshman were.

We should keep this in mind when we think about the fact that Paige is at UConn which has been THE dominant program for close to a quarter century now. Yes all these programs have great supporting talent around their star, but the 2nd best player on UConn (Strong) is probably better than any 2nd best player in the country, and she seems poised to be a very strong POY candidate next year and to be a #1 overall draft pick in the not too distant future. Paige most definitely isn't out there alone.

ftr, I expect Betts to be the pre-season favorite for POY next year since she's staying (and JuJu's hurt), but I'd probably put Strong as the next most likely winner.

Not much wiggle room in the All-America 1st team, and I agree Strong could've been a, well, strong, consideration.

But I'd also add Aneesah Morrow. I love Madison Booker. She's a better pro prospect than Morrow. But I'm not sure I understand how she was SEC POY over Morrow.

An incredibly efficient 19-13.5 in the SEC is no chopped liver. She literally replicated the 2024 SEC POY's numbers with a hint of a 3 point threat.

Again, Booker is an amazing player with more long-term upside, but based on what they both did in 2025, there's a strong case for Morrow, IMO.

[Green Chile]

I've got UConn over South Carolina in my bracket, and UConn looks fantastic right now.

But UConn a 7.5 point favorite over UCLA?

A deserving #1 overall seed that hasn't lost to any team without Juju, and it seems like they just can't get any respect. The way that team stepped up when Betts missed the 2nd quarter was really impressive. UConn is rolling, but I don't know how you stop UCLA when they are playing well.

We'll see, but this game should be a lot of fun.

[Green Chile]

And Texas doesn't seem like they're getting much respect either.

South Carolina has looked incredibly vulnerable the last couple games. Duke gave that game away.

[ellobo]

I've got UConn over South Carolina in my bracket, and UConn looks fantastic right now.

But UConn a 7.5 point favorite over UCLA?

A deserving #1 overall seed that hasn't lost to any team without Juju, and it seems like they just can't get any respect. The way that team stepped up when Betts missed the 2nd quarter was really impressive. UConn is rolling, but I don't know how you stop UCLA when they are playing well.

We'll see, but this game should be a lot of fun.

And Texas doesn't seem like they're getting much respect either.

South Carolina has looked incredibly vulnerable the last couple games. Duke gave that game away.

I'm really looking forward to both games. All four teams strike me as strong but vulnerable.

I'll be rooting hard for UConn, but UCLA is the remaining team I'm most afraid of, due to the presence of Betts. UConn's bigs are not offensive threats so UCLA will have a lot of flexibility in how they deploy Betts defensively. UConn can go small with Strong, but that's going to make it hard to defend Betts at the other end since Strong is giving up a lot of height, and she can't afford foul trouble. It will be an interesting strategic matchup, and I'm very curious how both teams will play it and what adjustments they'll make.