2024 WNBA Awards Discussion Thread

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Re: 2024 WNBA Awards Discussion Thread 

Post#41 » by Ice Man » Mon Aug 26, 2024 9:04 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:Drummond's the type "all I know how to do is rebound" player who naturally gives you easy buckets when he gets those rebounds, where as Reese's rebounding clearly isn't leading to easy shots for her. If the two players are otherwise equal in their respective leagues, we should expect Reese to be a worse WNBA player than Drummond is in the NBA...and I say this as someone who doesn't think Drummond should ever get minutes on a contending team.


Oh, she's better than Drum because she runs and defends. A fairer comparison for Angel is Dennis Rodman, although I doubt that her defense is yet at Dennis's level. (In truth I don't know, because I haven't seen her play a lot, mostly just highlights, and her defensive stats aren't much use.)
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Re: 2024 WNBA Awards Discussion Thread 

Post#42 » by Ghetto Gospel » Mon Aug 26, 2024 10:32 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:Well, my general philosophy is that Rookie of the Year isn't just about the Most Valuable Rookie, but is also about the future of the league. With this in mind, Clark seems as this point to be a pretty clear choice. "potential best rebounder in WNBA history" sounds like a really big deal, but if it's still not leading you to efficient shooting, you're not a facilitator, and you're not a defensive anchor, that makes you a role player rather than a star. Maybe she'll add enough to her game to be a full-on star, but I think every single team would choose Clark over Reese without hesitation even if popularity wasn't a thing.

With that said, Reese has been ROY worthy. She just has tough competition.


i'm flip-flopping here and i'll probably do it again but the more i watch caitlin clark and the more i watch the WNBA, i'm not entirely convinced of her current campaign as the ROY (i think it should be closer than people think) and her future as a potential best player in the league. she has a lot more work to do than people realize imo

i think she's atrocious on defense and i think being good on defense is so much more valuable in the WNBA in comparison to the NBA. i think in the NBA, it is somewhat acceptable for one of your star players to be a bit lackadaisical on defense, giving up an open 3 on a bad rotation or the occasional backdoor cut because NBA offenses are pretty good at generating these types of looks anyway. in the WNBA, i don't think teams are generating good halfcourt offense at nearly the same rate, so it's extremely punishing in the WNBA to carry a poor defensive player that is constantly giving up these types of looks. also for as many rebounds as she gets, i don't think i've ever seen her box anyone out. she just stands in front of the rim hoping the ball ricochets in her direction.

i also think she's overrated on offense at the moment because though she looks generational in transition, i don't think her halfcourt offense generation is even that great (no stats, all vibes and feel). i think when she runs into a good disciplined defense that knows how to get back in transition and also defend in the half-court, she isn't generating great offense. i imagine when she gets into the playoffs and teams scout her out and buckle down on defense, she will struggle mightily. on top of that, her extremely careless turnovers lead to easier points for opposing teams which i'd think is also more punishing in the WNBA because of the scoring difficulties.
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Re: 2024 WNBA Awards Discussion Thread 

Post#43 » by Ice Man » Tue Aug 27, 2024 1:50 am

I agree with the above points to an extent, but think they are overstated. Clark is not "atrocious" on defense. She was terrible against the Lynx but that was a one-off. Most nights, she is alright. Not good but teams aren't just going at her. And in the half court, she is solid on offense. To be sure, she's best in transition, but she's still one of the better PGs in the WNBA in the half court. Tonight was a good example. The Dream got back on defense mostly and when they didn't the Fever missed their layups anyway. So Clark had basically no transition statistics. Yet she went 19/7/7 for the game, essentially from the half court.

I do agree that in the playoffs when the Fever are matched up against an elite defensive team, and that team slows the game down (which usually happens in the playoffs) that Indiana will struggle. They're too young to succeed in that situation. But that's a different issue.
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Re: 2024 WNBA Awards Discussion Thread 

Post#44 » by Doctor MJ » Tue Aug 27, 2024 3:25 am

Ice Man wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:Drummond's the type "all I know how to do is rebound" player who naturally gives you easy buckets when he gets those rebounds, where as Reese's rebounding clearly isn't leading to easy shots for her. If the two players are otherwise equal in their respective leagues, we should expect Reese to be a worse WNBA player than Drummond is in the NBA...and I say this as someone who doesn't think Drummond should ever get minutes on a contending team.


Oh, she's better than Drum because she runs and defends. A fairer comparison for Angel is Dennis Rodman, although I doubt that her defense is yet at Dennis's level. (In truth I don't know, because I haven't seen her play a lot, mostly just highlights, and her defensive stats aren't much use.)


Totally agree that Rodman is the best comparison.

The concern: I don't think Rodman could be Rodman today. Meaning, if he literally played with the same approach in today's 3-point dominated game, he'd be considerably less valuable. He'd need to adapt.

The WNBA is still a bit retrograde compared to the NBA so maybe Reese won't need to change...but I hope she can round out her game.
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Re: 2024 WNBA Awards Discussion Thread 

Post#45 » by Doctor MJ » Tue Aug 27, 2024 3:28 am

Ghetto Gospel wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:Well, my general philosophy is that Rookie of the Year isn't just about the Most Valuable Rookie, but is also about the future of the league. With this in mind, Clark seems as this point to be a pretty clear choice. "potential best rebounder in WNBA history" sounds like a really big deal, but if it's still not leading you to efficient shooting, you're not a facilitator, and you're not a defensive anchor, that makes you a role player rather than a star. Maybe she'll add enough to her game to be a full-on star, but I think every single team would choose Clark over Reese without hesitation even if popularity wasn't a thing.

With that said, Reese has been ROY worthy. She just has tough competition.


i'm flip-flopping here and i'll probably do it again but the more i watch caitlin clark and the more i watch the WNBA, i'm not entirely convinced of her current campaign as the ROY (i think it should be closer than people think) and her future as a potential best player in the league. she has a lot more work to do than people realize imo

i think she's atrocious on defense and i think being good on defense is so much more valuable in the WNBA in comparison to the NBA. i think in the NBA, it is somewhat acceptable for one of your star players to be a bit lackadaisical on defense, giving up an open 3 on a bad rotation or the occasional backdoor cut because NBA offenses are pretty good at generating these types of looks anyway. in the WNBA, i don't think teams are generating good halfcourt offense at nearly the same rate, so it's extremely punishing in the WNBA to carry a poor defensive player that is constantly giving up these types of looks. also for as many rebounds as she gets, i don't think i've ever seen her box anyone out. she just stands in front of the rim hoping the ball ricochets in her direction.

i also think she's overrated on offense at the moment because though she looks generational in transition, i don't think her halfcourt offense generation is even that great (no stats, all vibes and feel). i think when she runs into a good disciplined defense that knows how to get back in transition and also defend in the half-court, she isn't generating great offense. i imagine when she gets into the playoffs and teams scout her out and buckle down on defense, she will struggle mightily. on top of that, her extremely careless turnovers lead to easier points for opposing teams which i'd think is also more punishing in the WNBA because of the scoring difficulties.


We'll see how it all plays out. I'm encouraged because I'm seeing her and her team make considerable progress over the course of the season.
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Re: 2024 WNBA Awards Discussion Thread 

Post#46 » by Doctor MJ » Tue Aug 27, 2024 4:13 am

One thing I'll say about Angel:

I believe she has the highest On/Off in the league among major minute players with a +21.5. That's absolutely not normal for a rookie and not something to be dismissed lightly.
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Re: 2024 WNBA Awards Discussion Thread 

Post#47 » by Ice Man » Tue Aug 27, 2024 11:24 am

Doctor MJ wrote:One thing I'll say about Angel:

I believe she has the highest On/Off in the league among major minute players with a +21.5. That's absolutely not normal for a rookie and not something to be dismissed lightly.


No doubt she is a very good player (in an unusual way) who makes her team better. But I don't quite know what to do with that stat. Her "On" is similar to Lindsay Allen's and Chennedy Carter's, as is her Net Offense/Defense Rating. Those stats say that Allen, Carter, and Reese are clearly the three best players on the Sky, with about equal level contributions.

The Off numbers I can't find, but you did and they favor Reese a lot. But the Off numbers comprise only about 200 minutes, so it's a bit hard to know how seriously to take them. I mean, besides the obvious that the team gets worse without Reese. Of that, no question.
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Re: 2024 WNBA Awards Discussion Thread 

Post#48 » by MrDollarBills » Tue Aug 27, 2024 1:27 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:
Ice Man wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:Well, my general philosophy is that Rookie of the Year isn't just about the Most Valuable Rookie, but is also about the future of the league. With this in mind, Clark seems as this point to be a pretty clear choice. "potential best rebounder in WNBA history" sounds like a really big deal, but if it's still not leading you to efficient shooting, you're not a facilitator, and you're not a defensive anchor, that makes you a role player rather than a star. Maybe she'll add enough to her game to be a full-on star, but I think every single team would choose Clark over Reese without hesitation even if popularity wasn't a thing.

With that said, Reese has been ROY worthy. She just has tough competition.


Spot on.

Another way of phrasing the matter is that if you have the league's best rebounder you can be a bad team. Put Andre Drummond back on the Pistons and they would still be terrible. OK, Reese is better than Drum because she is a mobile defender who also runs the floor. So let's make Drum a fast player who can defend on the perimeter. My point remains. He isn't curing what ails the Pistons.

Whereas pretty much by definition, the most productive point guard in the league (as measured by points & assists) will be on at least a half-decent team. It might not be outright good due to bad defense, rebounding, etc. But it will score enough points to be competitive.

Which is why elite PGs are treated as superstars and elite rebounders are not (unless the score a lot, too, in which case they are Tim Duncan or Charles Barkley, and that's a totally different thing).


Good stuff and I like the Drummond mention, though when we bring him up we need to acknowledge:

Drummond's the type "all I know how to do is rebound" player who naturally gives you easy buckets when he gets those rebounds, where as Reese's rebounding clearly isn't leading to easy shots for her. If the two players are otherwise equal in their respective leagues, we should expect Reese to be a worse WNBA player than Drummond is in the NBA...and I say this as someone who doesn't think Drummond should ever get minutes on a contending team.

But I am more optimistic about Reese than that. My guess is that that having the kind of athleticism and motor to dominate the boards without ridiculous size bodes well for her being able to do other things well.


Reese to me is going to be better than Drummond based on her defensive IQ and ability to cover ground. Her rebounding is elite, but we also see her developing a set jump shot, something Drummond never had either.

I like the Rodman comparison more tbh. Elite motor, rebounding, and defense. You can play Drummond off the floor fairly easily. Can't say that about Angel :nod:
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Re: 2024 WNBA Awards Discussion Thread 

Post#49 » by MrDollarBills » Tue Aug 27, 2024 1:30 pm

Clark's defense and half court game leave a lot to be desired, I agree with that. She has a lot of work ahead of her before she's on the level of A'ja, Stewie, and Phee.
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Re: 2024 WNBA Awards Discussion Thread 

Post#50 » by hermes » Thu Aug 29, 2024 1:52 am

latest mvp odds

A'ja Wilson, Aces: -3000 (bet $10 to win $10.33 total)
Napheesa Collier, Lynx: +3700 (bet $10 to win $380 total)
Caitlin Clark, Fever: +6000 (bet $10 to win $610 total)
Sabrina Ionescu, Liberty: +12000 (bet $10 to win $1,210 total)
Breanna Stewart, Liberty: +18000 (bet $10 to win $1,810 total)

seems surprising to me that the other contenders are as long a shot as they are. guess it's still a'ja's to lose by a long ways and currently vegas don't think there is much potential they take a bath on this
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Re: 2024 WNBA Awards Discussion Thread 

Post#51 » by hermes » Thu Aug 29, 2024 1:53 am

kahleah copper doesn't get a lot of mvp buzz. phoenix not good enough?
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Re: 2024 WNBA Awards Discussion Thread 

Post#52 » by MrDollarBills » Thu Aug 29, 2024 3:02 pm

hermes wrote:kahleah copper doesn't get a lot of mvp buzz. phoenix not good enough?


There's a high probability that the Mercury get knocked down to 7th by the Fever, so I would say that they aren't.
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Re: 2024 WNBA Awards Discussion Thread 

Post#53 » by MrDollarBills » Thu Aug 29, 2024 3:03 pm

hermes wrote:latest mvp odds

A'ja Wilson, Aces: -3000 (bet $10 to win $10.33 total)
Napheesa Collier, Lynx: +3700 (bet $10 to win $380 total)
Caitlin Clark, Fever: +6000 (bet $10 to win $610 total)
Sabrina Ionescu, Liberty: +12000 (bet $10 to win $1,210 total)
Breanna Stewart, Liberty: +18000 (bet $10 to win $1,810 total)

seems surprising to me that the other contenders are as long a shot as they are. guess it's still a'ja's to lose by a long ways and currently vegas don't think there is much potential they take a bath on this


God I would love to slap 1k down on Collier but A'ja is putting up insane numbers
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Re: 2024 WNBA Awards Discussion Thread 

Post#54 » by Ghetto Gospel » Thu Aug 29, 2024 6:15 pm

hermes wrote:latest mvp odds

A'ja Wilson, Aces: -3000 (bet $10 to win $10.33 total)
Napheesa Collier, Lynx: +3700 (bet $10 to win $380 total)
Caitlin Clark, Fever: +6000 (bet $10 to win $610 total)
Sabrina Ionescu, Liberty: +12000 (bet $10 to win $1,210 total)
Breanna Stewart, Liberty: +18000 (bet $10 to win $1,810 total)

seems surprising to me that the other contenders are as long a shot as they are. guess it's still a'ja's to lose by a long ways and currently vegas don't think there is much potential they take a bath on this


in other odds news, ROY odds are off the market, presumably oddsmakers have caitlin clark as a lock
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Re: 2024 WNBA Awards Discussion Thread 

Post#55 » by jc23 » Thu Aug 29, 2024 7:40 pm

only sites talking about ROY as a close race are doing so for clicks. Even mentioning Clark as a possible MVP is partly about clicks.
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Re: 2024 WNBA Awards Discussion Thread 

Post#56 » by Ice Man » Thu Aug 29, 2024 8:55 pm

jc23 wrote:only sites talking about ROY as a close race are doing so for clicks. Even mentioning Clark as a possible MVP is partly about clicks.


Yep. Both discussions are pure clickbait.
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Re: 2024 WNBA Awards Discussion Thread 

Post#57 » by Doctor MJ » Thu Aug 29, 2024 9:45 pm

hermes wrote:latest mvp odds

A'ja Wilson, Aces: -3000 (bet $10 to win $10.33 total)
Napheesa Collier, Lynx: +3700 (bet $10 to win $380 total)
Caitlin Clark, Fever: +6000 (bet $10 to win $610 total)
Sabrina Ionescu, Liberty: +12000 (bet $10 to win $1,210 total)
Breanna Stewart, Liberty: +18000 (bet $10 to win $1,810 total)

seems surprising to me that the other contenders are as long a shot as they are. guess it's still a'ja's to lose by a long ways and currently vegas don't think there is much potential they take a bath on this


How I tend to think about this is that when the odds are so skewed, the book is actually trying to get people to put down money on anyone other than the favorite to balance out their exposure. Maybe I'm wrong, but I think bettors have largely just been putting money down for A'ja basically ever since she didn't win the last MVP, and her putting up huge numbers has only furthered that.
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Re: 2024 WNBA Awards Discussion Thread 

Post#58 » by MrDollarBills » Thu Aug 29, 2024 10:17 pm

jc23 wrote:only sites talking about ROY as a close race are doing so for clicks. Even mentioning Clark as a possible MVP is partly about clicks.


Yep. 100% click and rage bait on both counts.

- Clark has clearly established herself as far and away the ROY. It's not up for debate

- Clark, who very well is deserving of MVP consideration, is not on the level of "the Big 3" of the league right now (A'ja, Stewie, Phee) and her team record is one game below .500.
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Re: 2024 WNBA Awards Discussion Thread 

Post#59 » by MrDollarBills » Thu Aug 29, 2024 10:18 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:
hermes wrote:latest mvp odds

A'ja Wilson, Aces: -3000 (bet $10 to win $10.33 total)
Napheesa Collier, Lynx: +3700 (bet $10 to win $380 total)
Caitlin Clark, Fever: +6000 (bet $10 to win $610 total)
Sabrina Ionescu, Liberty: +12000 (bet $10 to win $1,210 total)
Breanna Stewart, Liberty: +18000 (bet $10 to win $1,810 total)

seems surprising to me that the other contenders are as long a shot as they are. guess it's still a'ja's to lose by a long ways and currently vegas don't think there is much potential they take a bath on this


How I tend to think about this is that when the odds are so skewed, the book is actually trying to get people to put down money on anyone other than the favorite to balance out their exposure. Maybe I'm wrong, but I think bettors have largely just been putting money down for A'ja basically ever since she didn't win the last MVP, and her putting up huge numbers has only furthered that.



The line for Phee is 100% a trap :lol:
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Re: 2024 WNBA Awards Discussion Thread 

Post#60 » by boogiezen » Fri Aug 30, 2024 8:42 am

Funny about the Fever. 1-8 at the start of the season, now 15-16. Aside from her TOs and sometimes her defense, she's the engine on that Fever team. Fever has never been in the playoffs since 2016. To downplay what she has done is crazy. Everyone benefited from her gravity. Leading in pts, assist, steals, 3pt made, etc for the entire rookie class. To think her 3pt has not been a factor. Imagine if it is and cut her TOs to at least 4 with a better schedule at the start, she would be my top 3 MVP race. BTW, Sabrina has been the best player for the Liberty, not Stewie.

Reese is a rebound machine and if Brink wasn't injured, she would also be in contention together with Rickea (Coach Miller not giving her the starting job was a mistake or maybe they just wanted to tank for Paige).
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