Forget ROY THIS year, would, Reese have won it LAST year?

[Effigy]

The 2024 ROY race is completely over, but it did get me wondering how Reese compares to last year's winner (and CC's teammate) Aliyah Boston.



Reese has a big advantage in rebounding and... that's it. Boston beat her in every other category. And while most of Boston's advantages are smaller than Reese's huge rebounding advantage, field goal percentage is a different story. That's probably even more lopsided for Boston than rebounds is for Reese.

[MrDollarBills]

The 2024 ROY race is completely over, but it did get me wondering how Reese compares to last year's winner (and CC's teammate) Aliyah Boston.



Reese has a big advantage in rebounding and... that's it. Boston beat her in every other category. And while most of Boston's advantages are smaller than Reese's huge rebounding advantage, field goal percentage is a different story. That's probably even more lopsided for Boston than rebounds is for Reese.

I actually think that it'd be pretty close. Reese is shattering records herself, so I think that counts for something. Obviously AB is the better overall player in terms of offensive skill, I put Reese over her defensively

[Effigy]

The 2024 ROY race is completely over, but it did get me wondering how Reese compares to last year's winner (and CC's teammate) Aliyah Boston.



Reese has a big advantage in rebounding and... that's it. Boston beat her in every other category. And while most of Boston's advantages are smaller than Reese's huge rebounding advantage, field goal percentage is a different story. That's probably even more lopsided for Boston than rebounds is for Reese.

I actually think that it'd be pretty close. Reese is shattering records herself, so I think that counts for something. Obviously AB is the better overall player in terms of offensive skill, I put Reese over her defensively

Yeah, Reese is a stud, no question about it, and her season isn't over yet, so still time to add to it. But it's a much closer comparison IMO, not least because they play the same position.

[MrDollarBills]

The 2024 ROY race is completely over, but it did get me wondering how Reese compares to last year's winner (and CC's teammate) Aliyah Boston.



Reese has a big advantage in rebounding and... that's it. Boston beat her in every other category. And while most of Boston's advantages are smaller than Reese's huge rebounding advantage, field goal percentage is a different story. That's probably even more lopsided for Boston than rebounds is for Reese.

I actually think that it'd be pretty close. Reese is shattering records herself, so I think that counts for something. Obviously AB is the better overall player in terms of offensive skill, I put Reese over her defensively

Yeah, Reese is a stud, no question about it, and her season isn't over yet, so still time to add to it. But it's a much closer comparison IMO, not least because they play the same position.

Yeah absolutely. Both players are completely opposite in play style/strengths but they're a load for opponents to handle, so I have it fairly even

[theforumblue]

Reese has more fans and is better at things outside actual basketball so yes. she would've won. she has no business being compared to CC at this point for ROY yet she's right there in part because of how she's marketed herself.

[King Bugs]

Reese has a big advantage in rebounding and... that's it. Boston beat her in every other category. And while most of Boston's advantages are smaller than Reese's huge rebounding advantage, field goal percentage is a different story. That's probably even more lopsided for Boston than rebounds is for Reese.

And I still think she wins it over AB fairly easily. Angel will probably be the greatest ROY runner up of all time. She is having a massively historic season, a stat by stat comparison does not show how impressive Angel's rookie season has been. Broken the all-time rebounding record in a single season (rookie and league), broken the all-time record for most offensive rebounds in a season (rookie and league), currently has the highest rebounding average of all time, currently has the highest offensive rebounding average of all time, the 20 rebound streak, broke the record for consecutive double doubles, and she's broken the rookie record for most double doubles in a season. And with that, Angel still has a shot at breaking the WNBA record for most double doubles in a season.

People have been downplaying Angel because they don't like her or her game, but her resume is crazy and undeniable, AB would have to come a lot harder than a stat by stat comparison to knock her off because Angel is out here breaking league records. Being in the same draft class as Caitlin was just bad luck/timing for Angel.

[DOT]

I'll keep saying the same thing

To me, RoY have always leaned more offensive than defensive, especially because someone like Angel, her defense is much harder to quantify. Basically because she doesn't block many shots. You can say she's a great defender, and I can't really disagree (I don't watch enough Sky games to say either way), but the efficiency difference between her and AB is just too much to overcome even with the rebounding advantage, unless she was very clearly an elite defender in an easily provable way.

[cupcakesnake]

I'll keep saying the same thing

To me, RoY have always leaned more offensive than defensive, especially because someone like Angel, her defense is much harder to quantify. Basically because she doesn't block many shots. You can say she's a great defender, and I can't really disagree (I don't watch enough Sky games to say either way), but the efficiency difference between her and AB is just too much to overcome even with the rebounding advantage, unless she was very clearly an elite defender in an easily provable way.

Any time I've seen possession based stats and field goal differential, Rees really pops. People are really struggling to score when Rees is defending them.

I agree that in ROY discussions (and most awards) offense gets more attention. However, I do think Rees shattering records might have been more exciting that Boston simply being a very solid scoring efficiency person. A rookie just setting all-time records is not something that happens every day. A rookie big being a good scorer happens fairly regularly.

[DOT]

I'll keep saying the same thing

To me, RoY have always leaned more offensive than defensive, especially because someone like Angel, her defense is much harder to quantify. Basically because she doesn't block many shots. You can say she's a great defender, and I can't really disagree (I don't watch enough Sky games to say either way), but the efficiency difference between her and AB is just too much to overcome even with the rebounding advantage, unless she was very clearly an elite defender in an easily provable way.

Any time I've seen possession based stats and field goal differential, Rees really pops. People are really struggling to score when Rees is defending them.

I agree that in ROY discussions (and most awards) offense gets more attention. However, I do think Rees shattering records might have been more exciting that Boston simply being a very solid scoring efficiency person. A rookie just setting all-time records is not something that happens every day. A rookie big being a good scorer happens fairly regularly.

Not just "very solid" efficiency, Boston was 12th in the league in TS last year. 7th among players with more than 15 games played

This year, Angel has the 32nd worst TS of all players, 18th worst TS among players with more than 15 games played. I can make the case that statistically speaking Angel is one of the worst offensive players in the league based on overall efficiency as well as total workload

If she's just a good to very good defender, I don't think that makes up for it enough. Yeah I get she's setting rebounding records, which is ridiculous as a rookie, but I don't think that's enough to win RotY against AB last year

She wins in 2022 over Rhyne Howard though, easily.

[cupcakesnake]

I'll keep saying the same thing

To me, RoY have always leaned more offensive than defensive, especially because someone like Angel, her defense is much harder to quantify. Basically because she doesn't block many shots. You can say she's a great defender, and I can't really disagree (I don't watch enough Sky games to say either way), but the efficiency difference between her and AB is just too much to overcome even with the rebounding advantage, unless she was very clearly an elite defender in an easily provable way.

Any time I've seen possession based stats and field goal differential, Rees really pops. People are really struggling to score when Rees is defending them.

I agree that in ROY discussions (and most awards) offense gets more attention. However, I do think Rees shattering records might have been more exciting that Boston simply being a very solid scoring efficiency person. A rookie just setting all-time records is not something that happens every day. A rookie big being a good scorer happens fairly regularly.

Not just "very solid" efficiency, Boston was 12th in the league in TS last year. 7th among players with more than 15 games played

This year, Angel has the 32nd worst TS of all players, 18th worst TS among players with more than 15 games played. I can make the case that statistically speaking Angel is one of the worst offensive players in the league based on overall efficiency as well as total workload

If she's just a good to very good defender, I don't think that makes up for it enough. Yeah I get she's setting rebounding records, which is ridiculous as a rookie, but I don't think that's enough to win RotY against AB last year

She wins in 2022 over Rhyne Howard though, easily.

True true, my bad, definitely elite efficiency. I wasn't meaning to downplay that.

I think the efficiency concerns about Angel Rees are overblown in direct proportion to her rebounding prowess, because she rebounds so many of her own misses. So lots of those misses contributing to her poor efficiency aren't damaging, because possession is maintained (or she scores right after). That means a couple of her rebounds are also empty stats. I've said it before somewhere on this forum: to understand her impact, it makes more sense to think of her as someone shooting 47% fg and averaging 11 rebounds.

I voted for Boston by the way. I do think she was the better rookie. I can picture Reese's hype being bigger and that leading to a stronger ROY case with voters.

[DOT]

I think the efficiency concerns about Angel Rees are overblown in direct proportion to her rebounding prowess, because she rebounds so many of her own misses. So lots of those misses contributing to her poor efficiency aren't damaging, because possession is maintained (or she scores right after). That means a couple of her rebounds are also empty stats. I've said it before somewhere on this forum: to understand her impact, it makes more sense to think of her as someone shooting 47% fg and averaging 11 rebounds.

Doing the rough math, she would have to have taken 71 less shots than she has this year to get to 47% shooting (because we assume she ends a possession with a score either way, so total makes stay the same, we have to get FGA down to increase efficiency)

We assume these are all on putbacks, she's taken in total 277 shots within the restricted area this year, 127 makes. In this scenario we take 74 shots away (and 74 rebounds too, but we'll get to that), that puts her at 127-203, or 62.6% within the restricted area, which is birght between Kelsey Plum (62.5%) and Diana Taurasi (62.7%)

Which would be really good. Would bump her up to .539 TS which is pretty solid, just a tick under Chennedy Carter (.540)

However, this would halve her ORB, from 167 to 93. Total rebounds from 434 to 360, or 2.8 ORB a game and 10.9 total rebounds per game, which would put her on pace to break the record, if A'ja didn't average 12.1 a game this year. Would also mean she'd be tied for 3rd in ORB

How much that would help her case, I don't know. Cause like you said, she's breaking records this year. I think objectively if she were to have done that, she would be a better basketball player, but in terms of winning awards and hype, it would have been less because her case revolves entirely around the rebounding. Taking that away, even to be a better overall player, would damage her case more than help it.

[prophet_of_rage]

No, Aliyah Boston would have won last year even with Angel playing.

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