Taking Stock at 2025 All-Star Break

[Doctor MJ]

It's a good time to take stock at how teams and players have done this year, particularly compared to what was expected. I wanted to take some time to get my head around things, but also hope others will give their insights.

Let me start off with ESPN's pre-season preview.

Their initial rankings:

1. New York
2. Minnesota
3. Las Vegas
4. Indiana
5. Atlanta
6. Seattle
7. Phoenix
8. Dallas
9. Chicago
10. Los Angeles
11. Connecticut
12. Washington
13. Golden State

Followed by the current standings, with by standings with that pre-season ranking in parens:

1. Minnesota (2)
2. New York (1)
3. Phoenix (7)
4. Seattle (6)
5. Atlanta (5)
6. Indiana (6)
7. Las Vegas (3)
(tie) Washington (12)
9. Golden State (13)
10. Los Angeles (10)
11. Chicago (9)
12. Dallas (8)
13. Connecticut (11)

So then:

* We've got the Lynx & Liberty continuing to be the class of the league.
* We've got the Mercury with a new core right behind them blasting passed expectations.
* The Storm core remains about about as solid as last year and was expected of them.
* The Dream appear to be meeting expectations, but we should note that this is a HUGE improvement over the previous year.
* The Fever also appear to be meeting expectation by the W-L record, but we should also note that the team's SRS is significantly better than last year and they won the Cup. Even before we think about the Clark injuries, this team is definitely stronger than last year.
* The Aces have fallen off hard, and really for the second year in a row after they appeared to be set to be a dynasty after 2023.
* The Mystics & especially the Valkeries have considerably overperformed expectatiosn.
* The Sparks appear to be about at expectations, though they certainly hoped for more.
* The Sky, Wings & Sun were not supposed to be good, but wow, they are bad.

I'll also specifically add, that with the expansion Valkeries being so respectable and literally having a positive SRS at the all-star break, we've got 6 teams who are operating "below expansion" to this point:
* Vegas, Washington, LA, Dallas, Chicago, & Connecticut.

Regardless of whether their place in the standings matches expectations, this is absolutely a red flag for all of them. Even injuries aren't really supposed to make you worse than a team that doesn't have a single player whose previous teams saw them as worth protecting. I would say they have some serious soul-searching to do.

I'm going to end the first post and start looking at individual teams on subsequent posts, and really, really want to emphasize again how much I don't want to position myself as expert here. It should go without saying that I know less about the Liberty than MDB, and I may well know less about every single team than a number of you who've been able to watch a lot more than I know I've been able to.

[Doctor MJ]

Minnesota Lynx

#1 in Standings
#2 in SRS
#1 in ORtg
#1 in DRtg

Top 5 MPG players: Phee, McBride, Carleton, Williams, Smith
Top 5 MP players: Carleton, Phee, Williams, McBride, Smith
Top 5 WS players: Phee, Williams, Smith, McBride, Carleton
Top 5 Raw +/- players: Phee, Carleton, Williams, McBride, Hiedeman

I'd say the Lynx have had the start of the year we'd hope for after last season. It's basically the same core that led them to emerge last year as a top contender that almost won the Finals, and they're even better this year.

It's almost boring to try to say much else about the team, but a few thoughts:

* I'm really happy to see Phee as the clear cut MVP favorite in the eyes of the mainstream. Folks may remember that even as A'ja won the MVP last year, I thought Phee was the clear MVP. If things keep going this year like they've been, looks like she'll get here flowers.

* While Phee is the clear cut STAR of the bunch, this is a roster built really well and I'm here for any of her teammates getting love. I was bothered when McBride didn't get named all-star in the initial announcement, and I'm really glad she got in at least as a replacement as well as Williams.

Definitely a strong contender for the chip, although, when we look east to Brooklyn, it's still terrifying.

[Doctor MJ]

New York Liberty

#2 in Standings
#1 in SRS
#2 in ORtg
#2 in DRtg

Top 5 MPG players: Stewie, Sabrina, Cloud, Fiebich, Jonquel
Top 5 MP players: Stewie, Sabrina, Cloud, Burke, Johannes
Top 5 WS players: Stewie, Sabrina, Cloud, Burke, Fiebich
Top 5 Raw +/- players: Fiebich, Stewie, Sabrina, Jonquel, Cloud

So, in contrast to the Lynx, we see the Liberty top players kinda all over the place specifically because of the absence of Jonquel, Laney & Fiebich. And yet they STILL have the top SRS so far. Absolutely terrifying for the rest of the league, and I think we still have to see them as the favorites for the chip if they're healthy (other than Laney) in the post-season, although the Lynx are certainly right up there.

Other thoughts:

* I'm going to start with Leonie Fiebich who, while I think Liberty fans get her (and can surely teach me more), I don't think the rest of the league realizes how extraordinary she is fitting in with the rest of the Liberty talent. To me, she should absolutely be seen as an all-star level player in her effectiveness (when she plays enough games). (Incidentally, I feel similarly about Laney, the team building of this super-team's depth is highly unusual.)

* While Stewie is still a clear cut star, I'm still trying to figure out whether her downshift in both scoring volume and apparent +/- impact in the last two years means. In her first year in NY, Stewie absolutely looked like an MVP level player on a super-team with teammates that needed to figure it out. Since then, she's looked more like the lead in an ensemble. Her being willing to sacrifice herself a bit for the good of team synergy is something to be praised, but she's also 30 and while there's good reason to think she'll age gracefully, she's still aging.

* It worries me seeing Sabrina again (like last year) be an inefficient scorer. While I still see her as having all-star level performance in these years, the hype she came out of college with sets expectations higher than this. She, like Stewie, might be said to be sacrificing in some ways for the good of the Liberty, but I would have expected a kind of hand-off between Stewie & Sabrina as the team's offensive superstar (at least in the absence of Jonquel), and I can't say that's what I see.

* Jonquel's injury is an injury of course, but while the niche she's played for the Liberty these past couple years has been extremely effective, I feel like she's always been underutilized in Brooklyn. Underutilization on a super-team is par for the course for many players, but I feel like there's a distinct possibility that the Liberty should be looking to treat Jonquel as their focal point ahead of Stewie & Sabrina but they've instead slotted her into something more of a Bosh-on-the-Heatles tertiary role.

[Doctor MJ]

Phoenix Mercury

#3 in Standings
#4 in SRS
#5 in ORtg
#5 in DRtg

Top 5 MPG players: AT, Sabally, Bonner, Whitcomb, Copper
Top 5 MP players: Whitcomb, AT, Sabally, Westbeld, Laksa
Top 5 WS players: AT, Sabally, Whitcomb, Akoa-Makani, Brown
Top 5 Raw +/- players: Sabally, AT, Okoa-Makani, Westbeld, Whitcomb

So, almost a completely different team from last year, and an SRS improvement of +7.3. This is absolutely a situation where there's a lot to figure out, and some serious credit needs to go with coach (Tibbetts) & exec (U'Ren).

* AT is further cementing her "Engine" nickname and reputation, as her new team surpasses expectations, and her old team (Sun) looks god awful. There's more involved than just her, but yeah, tons of respect for what she seems to be able to do whoever is around her, and of course the fact that her longtime teammate (and fiancee) Bonner is now on the roster is just one more thing adding horse power to the machine the Engine is powering.

* Similarly for Sabally, her coming to a new team and it going amazing while her previous team (Wings) continue to thrash near the bottom of the standings provides significant validation. The Mercury went after and got 2 all-stars in the off-season, and both have looked even more effective than expected in the new context.

* Meanwhile, Whitcomb has actually played more than anyone else on the team this year, and done so very effectively. Not something I'd have expected from a 36-year-old never-all-star who last year played bench on a worse team while putting up uniformly unimpressive numbers.

* Westbeld, Laksa & Akoa-Makani are all rookies playing majority (>20 MPG). While these are not young rookies devoid of pro experience, still, we generally don't expect a team to be able to bring in several players with no WNBA experience, and see them thrive on a quality team.

* And of course Kahleah F*ing Copper - the star player they retained while letting go of the rest of their core - has mostly been absent due to injury. No given that she re-achieves top form or that she fits seamlessly into the new core, but there's reason to see this Mercury team as really scary for the first time since 2021 when they lost in the Finals to the Copper Sky.

[Doctor MJ]

Seattle Storm

#4 in Standings
#5 in SRS
#7 in ORtg
#3 in DRtg

Top 5 MPG players: Gabby, Skylar, Nneka, Ezi, Wheeler
Top 5 MP players: Gabby, Skylar, Nneka, Ezi, Wheeler
Top 5 WS players: Nneka, Skylar, Ezi, Gabby, Wheeler
Top 5 Raw +/- players: Skylar, Gabby, Nneka, Wheeler, Ezi

So, this is mostly the same core as last year with 2 big changes:
1. Gabby Williams is here all year.
2. No more Jewell Loyd.

Letting go of Loyd, who was considered a star piece on the Stewie-Bird championship teams, an was their primary MPG & PPG player last year, is no small thing, but man does it seem like it was the right move. Certainly the type of thing where if Loyd really is really State Farm ad worthy, doesn't seem like it should have worked, but she's really spent the bulk of her WNBA career as an inefficient volume shooter.

Other thoughts:

* Treating Nneka & Skylar as the new foundation for the team has absolutely worked for the time being, and the two players deserve some serious credit. However, they are both 34, so from the perspective of building a contender for the years to come I'm not quite that excited.

* Gabby Williams coming back with a vengeance and being named all-star for the first time is incredibly hartening. At 28, she's not someone I'm expecting to take a massive leap going forward, but health-permitting, they ought to be able to build with her as a core piece for a while.

*Ezi Magbegor is the 4th piece on this team right now, and at 25, the youngest of the established core which leads me to think of what the Gabby/Ezi duo can do together in the years to come...but neither one is that clear cut offensive alpha I'd ideally like to see. As Nneka/Skylar age out, what will the Storm do?

* I'll spare a moment for hyped #2 draft pick, and teenager, Dominque Malonga. Clearly the hope is that she emerges as the Storm's next superstar, but this seems like a ways a way.

[Doctor MJ]

Atlanta Dream

#5 in Standings
#3 in SRS
#4 in ORtg
#3 in DRtg

Top 5 MPG players: Allisha, Rhyne, Brionna, Canada, BG
Top 5 MP players: Allisha, Rhyne, Brionna, BG, Hillmon
Top 5 WS players: Allisha, Brionna, Rhyne, Hillmon, Canada
Top 5 Raw +/- players: Hillmon, Allisha, Brionna, Rhyne, Paopao

For perspective here, the Dream's current SRS is the best in franchise history. While that says not-so-great things about that history (though shout out to the team getting to 3 finals in the Angel McCoughtry era), and while by standings the Dream haven't exceeded expectations, I think any time you improve your team's SRS by more than 7 points, there's got to be a lot to celebrate and understand.

Let's start with 54-year old rookie head coach who has spent his entire coaching career in college, most notably 20+ years coaching Florida Gulf Coast who was literally the first coach for a team that began in DII, but who had an elite record under Smesko the whole time as the rose to become the class of the ASUN conference.

It seems right to say that Smesko deserved a shot in the WNBA a long time ago, but at the same time, I've long been skeptical about college coaches coming to the big leagues. Yes it works sometimes (Brad Stevens for the NBA Celtics), but coaching (and recruiting) student-athletes and coaching pros are very different things even before you consider differences in rules and playoff structure.

When GM Padover hired Smesko, he said:

Karl is a proven leader with a history of developing his players and creating a winning culture. His fast-paced, innovative style of play will be attractive to our players and fans alike. We are excited to have Karl bring his incredible basketball IQ to the Dream.

So, does the team play at a much faster pace this year? Nope, basically the same as last year.
But the team offense has taken a massive leap forward (+8.7 ORtg compared to last year), so something's different.

Looking at team stats, I'll note:

1. They've gone from 19.4 3PA to 28.8 while improving their 3P%.
2. They've gone from 18.4 APG to 21.0, which might not sound like that much, takes them from last in the league to 3rd.
3. They've gone from 12.5 TOPG to 11.8, which again seems small, but takes them from 4th to 1st in the league.

It's fair to say that this represents a change to style of play, though there's also an elephant in the room:

Last year by far their volume 2P shooter was Tina Charles with her traditional post scoring, and she's gone, replaced by no one allowed to take such shots at such volume. Now, Charles had a positive offensive (and overall) On-Off for the team last year so let's not go too far in blaming Charles for "making the team bad", but moving on from Charles absolutely represented a shift in what the Dream would be trying to do.

What about the players we're looking at on the 2025 roster?

* Allisha Gray is the belle of the ball. She'd already been an all-star and it's not like she's an MVP level player now, but she's posting career highest in PPG, RPG & APG while also having a career high TS% an +/- per 100.

* Rhyne Howard - the player I think we all think of as the Dream franchise player - on the other hand, while she's still getting big minutes & scoring primacy, does not really seem to have taken that same step forward and to be perfectly honest, I think it might be time to start lowering expectations for her compared to the hype she came in with. Kinda feels like the Dream offense took a leap this year in SPITE of still being told to feature Rhyne.

* Brionna Jones I'd say has been their big, successful all-star acquisition, and represents another awesome player that the Sun let go of this year.

* Brittney Griner is of course the biggest name star acquisition this year, but the impact doesn't seem to be there. At age 34 it just makes sense for stars to be past their prime and I'd say that's part of what's going on, but I also see Griner as someone who never really figured out how to "fit in" in her career and more relied on coaching and teammates to adjust around her. It makes sense given that I would consider her to be the greatest physical talent we've ever seen in the W, but it also means that while she's absolutely had superstar-level impact in her career, I don't have super-high hopes for what she can do at this point.

I want to single out two others who might not be the ones others would focus on:

* Naz Hillmon appears to be having some profound effectiveness as 6th Woman for the team in her 4th year as a bench player on the team. What's going on there? Well, I think we have to note that she basically didn't shoot 3's at all prior to this year (or in her college career), and now she's taking more 3's than 2's at a solid efficiency. While I don't know if Hillmon would continue to be able to stand out with impact if she were more featured, it seems clear that the fact that she's now an effective spacer absolutely fits with Smesko looking to get with the times and have his team shoot more 3's.

I'll also say, the idea that literally any role player is getting regular minutes and not taking 3's if they're capable - as was the case with Hillmon prior to this year - just strikes me as incredibly backward in 2020s basketball. Were I a coach coming into a new roster I didn't know, I'd not just be looking to see the 3-point shooting potential for all of my players, but especially the role players. The fact that this wasn't done with Hillmon's W coach (Wright) given her current success just seems like malpractice.

* Rookie Te-Hina PaoPao is someone I had my eye on before she got drafted. She was the big minute player, and primary 3-point shooter, on South Carolina the last two years (leading to one chip, and one finals), and yet still didn't get drafted in the 1st round. This was just weird to me. Oh, I understand that Dawn Staley's team was built around an ensemble cast rather than an A'ja like superstar, but Staley obviously knows what she's doing, and whoever she decides is to ride most heavily for minutes as she coaches the program to another chip just seems obviously like someone who probably can thrive in the W. I should note that early in her college career PaoPao was considered weaker on defense, but aside from the fact that that improved significantly with time by the consensus, I just don't think Staley would have depended on her like she did if her defense wasn't up to Staley's high standards.

I'll also say that over on cbbanalytics.com, they have some great data, and while I don't have access to all of it, I was able to see that among those draft eligible last year, here were the top 3 by RAPM (which granted, is less useful in college because most teams don't play each other):

1. Paige Bueckers (UConn) +13.1
2. Te-Hina PaoPao (SCar) +12.0
3. Sonia Citron (ND) +11.8

Paige & Citron were of course the top 2 college players drafted in 2025, but NCAA champ PaoPao didn't generate that same kind of enthusiasm. And of course, Paige & Citron will get talked about later as they each appear to be positioned as franchise player for their respective W franchises now playing big minutes with significant primacy now.

PaoPao, to this point is not getting that same kind run from her W franchise (playing 12.5 MPG), but she does have the highest +/- of anybody from the 2025 draft (Paige & Citron are negative). My instinct tells me that she has the capability to be a quality starter in this league, and that if the Dream take another leap going forward, it may be with PaoPao as a core piece.

[Doctor MJ]

Have to take a break for now, but I'm expecting to do similar analyses for al the rest still, and I hope y'all join in.

[Doctor MJ]

Indiana Fever

#6 in Standings
#6 in SRS
#3 in ORtg
#8 in DRtg

Top 5 MPG players: Clark, Mitchell, Boston, Hull, McDonald
Top 5 MP players: Mitchell, Boston, Hull, Howard, Cunningham
Top 5 WS players: Boston, Mitchell, Hull, Howard, Cunningham
Top 5 Raw +/- players: Howard, Hull, Mitchell, Clark, Boston

* The big lightning rod of a team with the first crossover mainstream icon that the women's game has had in a long time, if at all. I recognize how much controversy there is, and that there are a lot of people who bring up Clark to troll one side or the other, but I'm really not interested in this when talking about how an actual team is doing.

* However, this season has also been one full of injury for Clark, and the team's play has been erratic with and without her which means I'm really not all that confident in drawing new conclusions. I'll flat out say that I think Clark's rookie season was a bit overrated and that there have absolutely been better WNBA rookies than her, but I'll also say that I think Clark's the best offensive prospect we've seen in W history, and I'll be very surprised if there's never a time in her career when I see her as the best offensive player in it, and thus at least a little surprised if there's never a time when she's the best women's baller in the world.

* The fact they won the Cup means that this team is scary, and the fact they did it without Clark is terrifying. We're now at a point where if the Fever can find a way to synergize all of their strengths simultaneously and consistently, they will be contenders.

* However, there was a key acquisition this off-season for the Fever that is helping their defense now, but at a decade older than Clark, really can't be expected to keep it up into the future:

Natasha Howard

Howard, people not realize, is a former DPOY, and so if she's still herself, that's a hell of a defensive addition. There was good reason to think she'd already aged out given the fact last years she was on Dallas, who was the worst defense in the league, and the DRtg was worse when Howard played by a good margin. But the Wings were (and are) a mess, and so while Howard gets no real credit for what she was doing last year, I'm not surprised when players come back to life after leaving Dallas.

* That said, such synergization seems to some degree impossible any way, because a Clark lineup with Boston & Howard means half her teammates can't shoot from 3. This really doesn't seem like a way to build a contender around Clark, and that Cup might confuse matters and give the Fever a false confidence that they're on the right track.

* By that same token, the question of whether a Clark-Boston star-core is the best way to build with Clark - even if Boston is the only non-shooter on the team - is still to be answer.

* I want to continue to shout out Kelsey Mitchell as a 3rd star who seems like she's going to work with Clark. To me this was no kind of given it wasn't long ago Mitchell was both the team's primary scorer and facilitator, and neither role makes sense for a Clark teammate.

* I want to specifically emphasize that Lexie Hull seems precisely the type of role player that Clark needs, and her On-Off for the team the past two years has been their outlier. Doesn't mean she's secretly the franchise player, but I'd say of any of Clark's teammates, she'd be the one I'd least consider trading because I just don't see how you'd expect to achieve better fit around Clark by giving up Lexie.

[IlikeSHAIguys]

Wasn't everyone in the Indiana thread was saying were Fever supposed to be really good with their offseason and CC improving. Is 12 wins really meeting expectations I know CC's gets hurt and all but still.

[Doctor MJ]

Wasn't everyone in the Indiana thread was saying were Fever supposed to be really good with their offseason and CC improving. Is 12 wins really meeting expectations I know CC's gets hurt and all but still.

I mean, Clark has missed 10 of the 23 games and has played hampered in the games she has played, and in spited of that they've seen their SRS improve by +4.9 from last year, and that doesn't count the Commissioner's Cup that they won without Clark.

Given the circumstances, I don't see a reason to have expected more.

Now something I should say is that if you were under the impression that the Fever were a favorite coming into the season, well, that wasn't my impression, nor was it my prediction. Yes if Clark were healthy I'd be expecting them to have a better record than 12-11, but I really have no expectation that the Fever should be able to top the LIberty or Lynx even if everything were firing on all cylinders.

[Doctor MJ]

Las Vegas Aces

#7 in Standings
#8 in SRS
#9 in ORtg
#9 in DRtg

Top 5 MPG players: A'ja, Gray, Loyd, Young Smith
Top 5 MP players: Gray, Loyd, Young, A'ja, Stokes
Top 5 WS players: A'ja, Young, Loyd, Gray, Stokes
Top 5 Raw +/- players: A'ja, Young, Gustafson (only 3 positive +/- players)

The continued fall off since they dropped the red from their logo is quite astonishing.

In 2023 (red) their SRS was +11.5.
In 2024 (silver) their SRS was +4.8
In 2025 (silver) their SRS so far is -2.0

Along the way they're now allowing 6 more points per possession than in 2023, while scoring 11 less points.

All this while largely keeping the core in tact. 4 out of their 5 starters from 2023 are still starting - including their 3-time MVP (A'ja) and both their Finals MVPs (Gray & A'ja). They've kept a 3rd all-star (Young), and while they lost their 4th (Plum), they added a replacement in Loyd - and the fall off had clearly begun last year while Plum was still there.

When we see a drop off like this, it feels a bit like watching a punctured balloon deflate, and part of that is in the morale of the team. The good news about that is that it's conceivable they can get it back, but the roster isn't getting any younger, and they've been bleeding depth for a while, and if Loyd can't turn a corner here that's a big bust.

Looking at some factors here that tell the tale of the tape between 2023 & 2025, things I note:

1. They've gone from being 2nd in 3's made (with above average 3P%) to 7th (with below average 3P%).
2. They've gone from being 2nd in Pace (and first in 2022 after being slow before Hammon) to 6th.
3. Among their 3 previous key guards (Gray, Young, Plum), it was Plum who was the big 3-point shooter, while among their 3 new key guards (Gray, Young, Loyd), Loyd has the weakest track record from beyond the arc.
4. Among their 3 previous key guards, it was Plum's presence tended to pushed the pace the most, and while it might make sense Loyd could fill have a similar effect, that's not we've seen so far.

Honestly, it just feels like the team has been losing their edge between aging, roster turnover, and the rest of the W catching up.

There is still the fact that A'ja is an incredibly scary opponent for the whole league, and she very much feels like she could still be the best team on a championship team, but there's also a reality that she's not actually the type of superstar who has night & day impact at all times. Offensively she's always going to be more of an individual force than a team utilization force, and while that's proven to be able to work seamlessly with other talents (particularly those that space the floor), it doesn't seem to be something she can necessarily "steer" her play toward.

This then to say, I could see the rest of the Aces core dissolving in the not too distant future. Oh, if A'ja leaves it will be because A'ja dumps the Aces rather than the other way around, but if there doesn't seem to be a light at the end of the tunnel on the Strip, many star's in A'ja's position would start thinking about moving to green pastures.

[hermes]

Wasn't everyone in the Indiana thread was saying were Fever supposed to be really good with their offseason and CC improving. Is 12 wins really meeting expectations I know CC's gets hurt and all but still.

I mean, Clark has missed 10 of the 23 games and has played hampered in the games she has played, and in spited of that they've seen their SRS improve by +4.9 from last year, and that doesn't count the Commissioner's Cup that they won without Clark.

Given the circumstances, I don't see a reason to have expected more.

Now something I should say is that if you were under the impression that the Fever were a favorite coming into the season, well, that wasn't my impression, nor was it my prediction. Yes if Clark were healthy I'd be expecting them to have a better record than 12-11, but I really have no expectation that the Fever should be able to top the LIberty or Lynx even if everything were firing on all cylinders.

also all of their off-season signings haven't panned out. sophie has missed a few games with injuries and the bonner signing completely bombed.

[IlikeSHAIguys]

Wasn't everyone in the Indiana thread was saying were Fever supposed to be really good with their offseason and CC improving. Is 12 wins really meeting expectations I know CC's gets hurt and all but still.

I mean, Clark has missed 10 of the 23 games and has played hampered in the games she has played, and in spited of that they've seen their SRS improve by +4.9 from last year, and that doesn't count the Commissioner's Cup that they won without Clark.

Given the circumstances, I don't see a reason to have expected more.

Now something I should say is that if you were under the impression that the Fever were a favorite coming into the season, well, that wasn't my impression, nor was it my prediction. Yes if Clark were healthy I'd be expecting them to have a better record than 12-11, but I really have no expectation that the Fever should be able to top the LIberty or Lynx even if everything were firing on all cylinders.

also all of their off-season signings haven't panned out. sophie has missed a few games with injuries and the bonner signing completely bombed.

i guess it's better with context and all.

[Doctor MJ]

I mean, Clark has missed 10 of the 23 games and has played hampered in the games she has played, and in spited of that they've seen their SRS improve by +4.9 from last year, and that doesn't count the Commissioner's Cup that they won without Clark.

Given the circumstances, I don't see a reason to have expected more.

Now something I should say is that if you were under the impression that the Fever were a favorite coming into the season, well, that wasn't my impression, nor was it my prediction. Yes if Clark were healthy I'd be expecting them to have a better record than 12-11, but I really have no expectation that the Fever should be able to top the LIberty or Lynx even if everything were firing on all cylinders.

also all of their off-season signings haven't panned out. sophie has missed a few games with injuries and the bonner signing completely bombed.

i guess it's better with context and all.

Yup, but here's what I want to emphasize:

The relative hype behind Clark compared to the women's basketball superstars in the past is completely out of proportion not because Clark was unworthy as "the next big thing", but because of a rise in prominence to women's basketball roughly coinciding with the start of the 2020s, after a loss in prominence in women's basketball from '90s-00s to the '00s-10s. I don't know how old you are, but speaking as someone who was award in 1984, Cheryl Miller was a HUGE deal, and then as someone paying attention in the hype relating to the 1996 Team USA leading into the start of the WNBA, the hype surrounding Sheryl Swoopes & Lisa Leslie was also huge.

Something I've talked about with regards to this is a more general reality that when a pro spectator sport goes mainstream, it's generally on the back of particular athletes becoming iconic. While the popularity of basketball as a sport to be played took off like a rocket ship like no sport in history beginning in the 1890s (for both men & women, and for both white & non-white communities which effectively kept separately from a competition stand point), the popularity of pro basketball (achieved by the NBA) came on the back of particular stars: Mikan, Cousy, Russell, Wilt, Bird, Magic & Jordan being the key names I would associate. (Note that Kareem was absolutely as good as - or better than - those guys, but he didn't have the same type of effect for reasons we could get into. He's one example of how actual sport goodness isn't the direct driving factor here.)

All this to say that as someone who is coming at this analytically, it's not fair to Clark the Basketball Player that there's this perception she's orders of magnitude better than what came before, because she just isn't, and nor should we expect that to even be possible. Hence, while I'll say analytically that it's true that Clark was "overhyped" relative to other all-time talents, I'm not on a big "overrated" kick about Clark at all. You could say that the casual mainstream overrated her... but they were never doing any kind of rigorous analysis and thus even if Clark "disappoints" their hype, it doesn't mean that I personally am disappointed.

I've said all along (while she was still in college), I think it's unlikely - though not impossible - that Clark will be the best overall women's basketball player I've ever seen, and if she is becomes my GOAT, then longevity will probably be a big part of that. On the other hand, I do consider Clark the GOAT offensive prospect to ever come to the WNBA, and if she doesn't challenge on that front, it will be a disappointment. And to be clear, while this sophomore year has just been awful for her with the injuries, and some in the mainstream overhyped her rookie campaign a bit, I didn't really see anything that discouraged me about Clark in her rookie campaign.

Last I'll say, as a fan of women's basketball, I'm cheering for the super-hyped college players like Clark, Paige & JuJu to absolutely live up to that hype in the pros as a) I want to see greatness, and b) I think that college hype is an essential part of the mainstream awareness that kicks up a sport's popularity to a new level. There's just this rub that people want to be able to say that women's basketball wasn't popular in the '10s because the talent wasn't good enough, and I'm afraid that's just not justified analytically. People clearly want to believe a new level of women's talent is what's making the difference, but I'm afraid that's not my assessment how stuff like this works.

[Doctor MJ]

(Welp, still working my way through the teams with the break already over unfortunately.)

Washington Mystics

#8 in Standings
#9 in SRS
#11 in ORtg
#7 in DRtg

Top 5 MPG players: Citron, Sykes, Iriafen, Sutton, Melbourne
Top 5 MP players: Citron, Sykes, Iriafen, Sutton, Melbourne
Top WS players: Citron, Iriafen, Sykes, Sutton, Austin
Top 5 Raw +/- players: Sutton, Austin, Sykes, Engstler (only 4 positive +/- players)

So, despite the mediocrity, the Mystics are surely patting themselves on the back for pivoting to a youth movement now that Elena Delle Donne has officially retired, and actually improving from the previous year.

Their clear focal point at this time seems to based on their #3 & #4 picks in the 2025 draft Sonia Citron & Kiki Iriafen, and while it's kinda weird to me the idea of potentially building your next generation around 2 players who were college sidekicks playing next to younger stars (Hidaldo & JuJu), it's not like there's something else on the roster that I'd be looking to focus on.

Something I'll note is that at this time the Mystics roster is at the bottom of the league in 3PA after being at near the top last year does not seem like offensive progress to me, and I do wonder what exactly they're thinking here, but at least Citron is a sharp-shooter.

In the end, I'm not sure if I have that much more to say here. Aspects of the season are encouraging, but it really seems to me like they shouldn't be expecting their current roster to contain the core they'll be looking to go forward with in the years to come, and specifically, this seems like a roster that still waiting for a new franchise player to arrive.

[Doctor MJ]

Golden State Valkyries

#9 in Standings
#6 in SRS
#10 in ORtg
#3 in DRtg

Top 5 MPG players: Thornton, Burton, Hayes, Fagbenle, Salaun
Top 5 MP players: Thornton, Burton, Fagbenle, Hayes, Billings
Top 5 WS players: Burton, Thornton, Fagbenle, Billings, Hayes
Top 5 Raw +/- players: Burton, Leite, Hayes, Talbot, Bibby

So, while I'm not sure how much insight I have here, I think the Valkeries deserve tons of analysis as an expansion team that out of the gate has been solid despite building a roster completely around the players that the other WNBA franchises failed to protect.

Just immediately, it makes us ask whether the teams worse than GS right now are all incompetent and should have their GMs & coaches replaced en masse. Seriously. Right now, basically the whole league should be earnestly asking themselves if they'd be better off if they had Ohemma as GM, Nakase as coach, and a front office with people like those GS is currently employing.

As I often do, I look for indicators in pace and/or space. In this case the Valkeries are actually on the slow side pace wise, but they lead the league in 3PA. Now, they aren't shooting a good 3P% and their offense in general isn't the reason for their overall surprising confidence, but they are clearly focused on spacing the floor.

From what I have read, the Valkeries have been really focused this initial season in building an on-court culture where there's an expectation of serious effort on defense at all times, while looking to present themselves off-court as a part of that "light years ahead" mentality of owner Lacob that has been so roundly mocked. Lacob getting mocked was always a bit unfair because he was focused on the off-court stuff rather than asserting he was leading the smartest basketball organization - though his role in zagging against Steve Kerr's system by favoring prospects with impressive bodies rather than impressive BBIQ will go down in infamy - and that kind of off-court business advantage absolutely seems like it's paying off here.

They seem to be hoping that they can lure big free agents beginning next off-season to anchor the strong role player culture they're already building. Only time will tell if this proves successful, but no matter what, when you're an expansion team and you're not given access to a superstar prospect from day one, getting off to a respectable start like this is HUGE, as we're generally talking about a roster that should be much less talented than what any other team has.

Because they were the only expansion team in the Expansion Draft, we don't actually know who they considered to be their #1 target among those available, and it's been fun to see who they've actually relied upon as their core pieces, particularly where it seems to deviate from a player's prominence previously.

Here are the core MPG players this year with this year's MPG listed first, and last year's team & MPGs in parens:

1. Kayla Thornton, 30.1 (NYL, 20.2)
2. Veronica Burton, 29.0 (CON, 12.7)
3. Tiffany Hayes, 26.3 (LVA, 21.5)
4. Temi Fagbenle 24.2 (IND, 18.9)
5. Janelle Salaun 22.8 (rookie)

Given the MPGs from last year, Thornton & Hayes make absolute sense as choices who represented basically "next most prominent players" on quality teams, and as such while there is some credit involved in selecting them, it was pretty predictable that a) they'd be left eligible for the expansion draft, b) that they'd be perhaps the best players among those eligible, and c) they'd play major roles on the new expansion team.

To me, it's the emergence of Veronica Burton that is the story of the Valkeries success in using the expansion draft to find a diamond in the rough not previously appreciated.

Burton was drafted 7th overall in 2022, and so was expected to be a player who could thrive in the W. Her reputation coming up was always about defense first, and so expectations were always for her to be a role player... but she wasn't able to gain permanent traction on her first two teams (Wings & Sun), who we note, are both not just worse than the Valkeries now, but considerably worse.

On the Wings, I want to specifically note that Burton raves about how supportive alpha Arike Ogunbawale was the whole time, and I want to do so specifically because I've really come to the conclusion that Arike was the problem with the theory of the team. Something that's long fascinated me is the fact that when Arike & Jackie Young were teammates at Notre Dame, Arike was the clear cut star getting all the accolades, but Young was the one drafted first. Now, team fit is a thing and the team drafting first already had previous #1 picks Kelsey Plum & A'ja Wilson, so it's not necessarily damning to how Arike was perceived that the Aces thought someone else was a better fit...

but now 7 years into Arike's career, she just doesn't seem like she's effective enough as a pure volume scorer against WNBA level defense for that to be the basis behind your team's offensive strategy, and with the Wings lucking into Paige Bueckers in the lottery, I expect they'll be looking to move on from Arike, and when that happens, there will be a good chance that no WNBA team looking to build a contender will want her as anything more than a microwave off the bench. I could be wrong on that, but if I am, I won't be surprised if whichever team bets on Arike ends up regretting it.

I bring all this up not to simply be negative, but just to note, I think when you're trying to break through into the rotation as a role player on a team with a flawed theory at their foundation, you don't really get the opportunity to show you can be a valuable part of a successful 5-core player starting unit, because true team success is impossible.

After 2 years in Dallas, Burton moves to the Connecticut Sun who are actually a good team, and I started noticing here as someone who really seemed like she was thriving off the bench +/- wise, and who was actually putting up 3P% that made a 3 & D reputation possible.

Given this, her relative youth, and the fact that the Sun decided to blow it up in the off-season, I was expecting the Sun to want to keep Burton as a building block, but in retrospect, this was naive. The Sun seem like they were only focused at the time in protecting players that they thought had immediate trade value based on prior reputation, and since Burton didn't have that, they didn't protect her.

This then to say that I'm not sure the Sun letting Burton go was a mistake, because that depends on their goals, and as I'll get into with them, I'm not actually sure what there goals are now.

But from a Valkerie perspective, them snapping up Burton, who was only the #9 woman by MPG on the Sun the prior year, and then making her a key part of their roster & culture this year, feels like a master stroke to me. Whether Burton will ever be seen as anything like a star-level player, having a young player with that defensive reputation & intensity, was precisely the sort of thing I'd advocate for if your immediate focus isn't on building a contender right now, but on building a productive culture going forward.

I'd further note that with the Valkeries choosing to have Burton operate as the primary facilitator, they have positioned Burton as possibly something more than a role player, and honestly, it seems to me she's actually more deserving of an all-star nod than teammate Thornton who get that nod. Thornton's the lead scorer yes, but, it's only a 14.0 to 11.0 lead over Burton, and meanwhile Burton shoots more efficiently (Thornton's TS% is not good), is the lead APG player on the roster, has the existing outstanding defensive reputation, and is leading the team in +/-.

You combine that with Burton at 24 being much younger than the other 3 top minute players on the roster (Thornton, Hayes & Fagbenle are 32 or older), and to me it's clear which of these players has a chance to be a major part of the Valkerie organization in the years to come.

Of course, in addition to Burton, we've got players like Salaun, Carla Leite & Kaitlyn Chen who are all young, and none of whom were drafted as future stars, but all look like they have a place on quality teams going forward.

The future looks bright in Golden State, and at the very least the next wave of expansion teams need to be looking at how they approached their initial roster build, and taking serious notes.

[ellobo]

I absolutely agree that Veronica Burton has been a revelation in a starting role for the Valkyries. Burton brings it defensively without fouling a lot, puts pressure on the defense with her dribble and makes plays without turning it over a lot. She's just a solid high motor and high IQ player that a team can feel confident putting the ball in her hands. Her FG% is low, but she's raised her 3P% into respectability, she gets to the line, and she's an excellent free throw shooter, so her TS% is not terrible, especially in the context of her raw FG%.

I'd also like to shout out another x-factor player who has surprised me positively.

On the Liberty, Kennedy Burke has made a huge leap in her three point shooting, and sustained it all year long so far. She mostly played behind Kayla Thornton last year and I was worried that the Liberty would really miss KT, especially with Betnijah Laney-Hamilton being out for the year. But Burke being able to fill that role of a versatile wing defender with size, AND be a knock down shooter has filled that role admirably. It's at the point with Burke and Fiebich that I'm shocked when they miss a three.

[Doctor MJ]

I absolutely agree that Veronica Burton has been a revelation in a starting role for the Valkyries. Burton brings it defensively without fouling a lot, puts pressure on the defense with her dribble and makes plays without turning it over a lot. She's just a solid high motor and high IQ player that a team can feel confident putting the ball in her hands. Her FG% is low, but she's raised her 3P% into respectability, she gets to the line, and she's an excellent free throw shooter, so her TS% is not terrible, especially in the context of her raw FG%.

I'd also like to shout out another x-factor player who has surprised me positively.

On the Liberty, Kennedy Burke has made a huge leap in her three point shooting, and sustained it all year long so far. She mostly played behind Kayla Thornton last year and I was worried that the Liberty would really miss KT, especially with Betnijah Laney-Hamilton being out for the year. But Burke being able to fill that role of a versatile wing defender with size, AND be a knock down shooter has filled that role admirably. It's at the point with Burke and Fiebich that I'm shocked when they miss a three.

It really is remarkable the way role players keep impressing on the LIberty. The inability of superteams to empower role players isn't just par for the course, it's something that was their in the first year of Stewie-Jonquel-Sabrina. The improvement in effective depth they've achieved in these last two seasons really impresses, and makes me feel that in addition to the new players and the established players helping them, the coach (Brondello) & GM (Kolb) deserve some serious love too.

I note this in particular because last year it really felt like the WNBA internet had classified Brondello as a bad coach based on some (admittedly) questionable in-game decisions, but Brondello is one of the greats of WNBA coaching based on her prior success, and it seems to me that she has a great deal of skill in working to get the best out of her players over time.

[Doctor MJ]

Los Angeles Sparks

10th in Standings
10th in SRS
6th in ORtg
11th in DRtg

Top 5 MPG players: Plum, Hamby, Jackson, Sims, Azura
Top 5 MP players: Plum, Hamby, Azura, Jackson, Barker
Top 5 WS players: Azura, Hamby, Plum,
Top 5 Raw +/- players: Allemond, Hamby, Burrell (only 4 positive +/- players)

So, as I've alluded to previously, the fact that any of these last 4 teams are below the Valkeries makes it so that it's hard not to think of them all as disappointments, but this is particularly true for the Sparks who in going all-in on Kelsey Plum were clearly trying to be better than a replacement-level team.

Thing is though, while there's no getting around the fact that Golden State is drastically overperforming what was thought possible with conventional wisdom, the Plum acquisition basically did what it was supposed to.

Last year the Sparks had the worst ORtg in the league at 98.6.
This year the Sparks rank 6th in ORtg in the league at 106.0.

With Plum on the floor they have an ORtg of 107.0.
With Plum off the floor they have an ORtg of 97.6.
And Plum has played more than any other player.

Some may have thought it was unwise to bring in a new alpha guard when you already had the promising rookie Rickea Jackson, and time will tell on that, but we should be clear that in both last season and this the Spark ORtg has been quite a bit worse with Jackson on the court than off. Doesn't mean she can't possibly improve, surpass Plum, and lead the Sparks to the promised land, but had they just handed Jackson the roster this year, I'd expect the team would have been about as bad as last year, whereas in actuality they've already surpassed their win total from last year, and their SRS has improved by 4.0 which is not insignificant.

Further, there's the matter that their actual top draft pick from last year, Cameron Brink, has been sidelined with injury. While we don't know how good a healthy Brink is, nor how good prime Brink can become, just from a team theory perspective, the Sparks brought Plum onto a team that intended to have Brink in the core, and that makes sense because Brink is a defense-oriented big who won DPOY in college.

All this to say, sucks to be in a sub-Golden State, but all things considered, this seems about what would be reasonable to expect.

Last note: Leaving aside Jackson, the high scoring primacy question right now is one involving Plum and Dearica Hamby. While they aren't the same type of player, it's the sort of thing that makes me want to check the sub-lineup data to note any red flags for poor synergy. I don't see any at this time though, and I'll note that when the Sparks have both Plum & Hamby on the court, they are outscoring opponents. That's something!

[Doctor MJ]

Chicago Sky

11th in Standings
12th in SRS
12th in ORtg
12th in DRtg

Top 5 MPG players: Reese, Atkins, Sloot, Cardoso, Nurse
Top 5 MP players: Reese, Atkins, Nurse, Banham, Allen
Top 5 WS players: Reese, Atkins, Cardoso, Banham, Williams
Top 5 Raw +/- players: (no positive +/- players)

So, I think we have to start off here with the trainwreck of the Sky organization firing their coach from last year (WNBA legend Teresa Weatherspoon) after the team surpassed expectations on the back of her ability to get the talented but mercurial Chennedy Carter to comply, and now with their new (male) coach but without Carter, the team has gotten considerably worse than the previous year and with an MOV (average margin of victory) in the negative double digits.

This isn't some situation where a youth movement team is merely "still not there yet". They've nose-dived year over year, and it doesn't feel to me like the WNBA world has really tried to process this yet. Understandable not to be hasty with small sample size, and when we know that circumstances (injury, int'l duties) have kept the team from fully being what it was envisioned to be.

Further, we shouldn't forget that the Sky traded Marina Mabrey mid-season last year, and this was done knowing it would probably make the team worse and it did. So the drop off from the end of last year to this one isn't quite as dramatic as it appears.

Here's the thing though: Carter & Mabrey were last year's two top PPG scorers, and I'd expect to see the statistical team drop off therefore to be primarily on offense... but it isn't. It's the defense that's gotten considerably worse than last year.

So, who stood out by impact data defensively last year? The celebrated rookie Angel Reese:

In '24, with Reese, the Sky's DRtg was 102.3.
In '24, w/out Reese, the Sky's DRtg was 113.5.

That's a 12.2 Defensive On-Off improvement there for Reese, which was the best on the team for anyone playing significant minutes, and Reese of course played more minutes than anyone else on the team.

It was to me that data that made Reese a serious candidate for ROY over Clark (though of course I did end up siding with Clark).

Okay, fast forward to 2025:

In '25, with Reese, the Sky's DRtg is 112.1.
In '25, w/out Reese, the Sky's DRtg is 103.7.

That's 8.4 worse now when Reese is actually on the court. Which makes it a 20 point drop off in Def On-Off from year to year.

I can't tell y'all how concerning this is to me for reasons specific to Reese being an extremely unusual player. Whenever a new type of player emerges on the scene, we can expect that subsequent adjustments will tend to knock that player's effectiveness back a bit. This may only be temporary as the player can learn counters and then counters to counters, and so long as they are better at that cat-and-mouse game than the opposition can get, the player becomes more and more effective.

But when I see superficial evidence of adjustments possibly having not just an effect, but a very big effect, I take notice.

If we look at Reese's pieces of box score On-Off comparing year to year, I think the natural thing to look at is Reese's impact on Defensive Rebounding, given that we're looking at defensive On-Off and rebounding is Reese's thing:

In '24, with Reese, the Sky's DRB% was 79.3%.
In '24, w/out Reese, the Sky's DRB% was 71.2%.
An improvement of 8.1% with Reese playing.

In '25, with Reese, the Sky's DRB% is 73.4%.
In '25, w/out Reese, the Sky's DRB% is 75.6%.
A drop off of 2.2% with Reese playing.

So, that's a huge drop off, and it is coming with Reese getting more defensive rebounds than last year (while getting less on offense). Uh oh, that brings up a very specific red flag:

General rule, the way to be a great offensive rebounding team is to have strong & springy young players go all-in on crashing the boards, while the way to be a great defensive rebounding team is to work together to box out the opponent.

The problem with going all-in crashing the boards on defense is that while it makes more likely that you personally will get the rebound, it opens gaps which can allow the opponent's glass crashers greater ability to swoop in and grab the offensive board.

Now, it's not that you don't want the same athleticism of offensive rebounding greats on defense of course, and so it isn't necessarily unexpected at all that Reese was having major impact on both offensive & defensive rebounding last year, but it's one of those things that works as long as it works, but teams might be able to counter it effectively with a greater focus on how to play against someone like Reese.

As I say all of this though, it's possible that the apparently superior adjustment to Reese this year have their success in part because of injuries or lineup absences. The fact that the Sky were without their Brazilian giant Kamilla Cardoso for a good chunk of time, for example, might be indicate that the Sky falling off on defense being less about adjusting to Reese, and more about what a combination Reese & Cardoso are.

All that said though, I have to say, I think it's likely that we're just gradually going to see Reese's rebounding-related talent slip back down toward the mean, and this is going to mean that she's going to have to get considerably better at the rest of her game to match her rookie campaign. Not saying she can't do it, but the nature of how she broke into the league makes her the rare player that could plausibly peak as a rookie, and frankly I hope she understands that and gets a running start on refining all other aspects of her game.