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So I'm undecided whether to push for the Voting project we did last, but figure we can at least talk about as the regular season ends.

Thoughts about MVP, DPOY (and OPOY if you're game), ROY, MIP, 6WOY, COY and/or EOY?

I have some, but will hold off for the moment.

co-winners of 6WOY: natisha hiedeman and jessica shepard

Hate to do it, but I'm giving MVP to A'ja.
Reasons are all in the season thread, but A'ja had to do something ridiculous to steal it from Phee, and she did it.
(Still don't think A'ja will win it, but it's going to be really close).

Phee with another DPOY consolation prize.

MIP to Burton, though Kayla was right there until she got hurt.

6POY to Naz if she still qualifies. She's a great candidate for MIP too.

Paige ROY, but damn it was close.

Also extremely close, but Natalie has to be COY. Smesko is so close, and deserving. Easy winner in any other year. But it has to be Natalie.

EOY to Cheryl, of course.
Although I think Wideman with Washington is also deserving. Mystics ownership might suck, but they have a brilliant GM and a solid coach. Obviously, the great young core because of it. Heaven help the league if the Sparks sneak into the Playoffs and give the Mystics another year with multiple lottery picks.

I still say Phee wins MVP.

Paige of course is ROY

Smesko for COY

Leila Lacan for all-rookie team or we riot

On-Off +/- per100 (basically how many points per 100 possessions better a team is when a player is on the court) among players with at least 100 minutes played:

1: A'ja Wilson (28.1)
2: Jackie Young (20.2)
3: Leila Lacan (18.2)
4: Dearica Hamby (16.8)
5: Skylar Diggins (15.3)
6: Gabby Williams (14.0)

Wilson and Young are teammates, as are Diggins and Williams, the next highest Spark is Julie Allemand at 12th (11.6), the next highest Sun is Aneesah Morrow at 35th (5.5).

MIP: Veronica Burton
COY: Nakase

That's all folks!

So, here'sESPN on the Awards.

I'll give their choices, followed by my thoughts on and around that.

ESPN: MVP
3 for A'ja Wilson
1 for Napheesa Collier

Me


I have Phee followed by A'ja, but I can certainly see reasonable people going for A'ja.

Where I think I tend to diverge from them - other than being the guy who said his MVP was Phee last year - is in my feeling that it really doesn't make sense to vote on the basis of a player's missed games when their team was never in serious danger of losing the top seed, and I think they've not been playing with urgency for a while because for them, there literally is no urgency.

I'd expect to have Alyssa Thomas 3rd followed by Allisha Gray 4th, but I'm really not sure who to say on #5.

ESPN: ROY
4 for Paige Bueckers
2nd place Sonia Citron

Me

I agree here, but I'd note that there are several other impressive rookies coming out of the woodwork this year including Monique Akoa Makani, Te-Hina PaoPao, and yes, Lelia Lacan.


ESPN: DPOY
3 for Alanna Smith
1 for A'ja Wilson

Me


So, the Lynx have a DRtg that is 7.5 points better when Smith pays bench. I'd love to see some good regression data on this, but from my experience, it's awfully hard to believe that a player like that can be the top defensive player on your team, let alone the entire league.

If I were picking a Lynx candidate, I'd go with Courtney Williams. Courtney played more than any of her teammates, and had a better defesive On-Off than any of her teammates playing big minutes. Yeah she's just a small guard, but this is the WNBA the norms of the NBA (defensive bigs > defensive smalls) don't hold so clearly. In men's ball, centers didn't really become defensive anchors until we started getting guys around 6'9".

A'ja's a more reasonable candidate to me than Smith, but I do think Gabby Williams and Alyssa Thomas would be comparably good choices.

ESPN: MIP
4 for Veronica Burton
2nd place Naz Hillmon

Me


Yup, completely agree.

ESPN: 6POY
4 for Naz Hillmon
2nd place Natisha Hiedeman

Me


Once again agree, and I'll note that Naz might be the most intriguing player of the entire season to me. If you look at the team splits, she's not only been starting, but has been her teams biggest minute player through much of this run. I was actually tempted to mention her in my MVP & DPOY sections.

ESPN: COY
4 for Natalie Nakase
2nd place Karl Smesko

Me


Once again completely agree. Both these coaches easily had COY level seasons.

Me: EOY


They didn't give an EOY vote but I'll single out:

Nyanin Ohemaa of the Golden State Valkeries.
Nick U'Ren of the Phoenix Mercury.
Amber Cox of the Indiana Fever.

Aja Wilson is my MVP.

Nakase is COY.

Very close between Phee and A'ja for MVP.

IMO, Phee achieving the 50/40/90 benchmark while scoring over 20 ppg and leading her team to the best record in the league clinches it. AFAIK, she's only the second player to do it, after Elena Delle Donne, and the first to do it while averaging over 20 ppg (although EDD averaged 19.5 when she did it, Phee is 3.4 ppg higher).

That plus voter fatigue with A'ja, and the fact that Phee could easily have won last year if not for A'ja having a historic scoring season. This year, Phee has the historic statistical milestone, plus the team success, and the front-runner narrative.

ellobo wrote:Very close between Phee and A'ja for MVP.

IMO, Phee achieving the 50/40/90 benchmark while scoring over 20 ppg and leading her team to the best record in the league clinches it. AFAIK, she's only the second player to do it, after Elena Delle Donne, and the first to do it while averaging over 20 ppg (although EDD averaged 19.5 when she did it, Phee is 3.4 ppg higher).

That plus voter fatigue with A'ja, and the fact that Phee could easily have won last year if not for A'ja having a historic scoring season. This year, Phee has the historic statistical milestone, plus the team success, and the front-runner narrative.

She missed 8 games is where I draw the line. And I think the Aces has a negative plus/minus without Wilson.

Mephariel wrote:

ellobo wrote:Very close between Phee and A'ja for MVP.

IMO, Phee achieving the 50/40/90 benchmark while scoring over 20 ppg and leading her team to the best record in the league clinches it. AFAIK, she's only the second player to do it, after Elena Delle Donne, and the first to do it while averaging over 20 ppg (although EDD averaged 19.5 when she did it, Phee is 3.4 ppg higher).

That plus voter fatigue with A'ja, and the fact that Phee could easily have won last year if not for A'ja having a historic scoring season. This year, Phee has the historic statistical milestone, plus the team success, and the front-runner narrative.

She missed 8 games is where I draw the line. And I think the Aces has a negative plus/minus without Wilson.

She played 4 fewer games that A'ja.

Bodes well for Phee winning MVP, as the last couple years the 2nd place MVP won DPOY:

BlacJacMac wrote:Bodes well for Phee winning MVP, as the last couple years the 2nd place MVP won DPOY:

Read on Twitter

Probably.
But with her splitting the award with Alanna, it may not mean as much.

Still means half the voters didn't vote A'ja for DPOY. It would take a couple that voted her for both for her to also win MVP.

I think Phee wins, but it's gonna be so close. My guess is A'ja would have won if Phee hadn't have locked in 50-40-90 in the last game.

Alyssa Thomas' relationship to the DPOY award is getting a little Tim Duncan-like. To me, she's the best defensive player of her generation (she's quite simply one of the best defenders I've ever watched play this sport) and yet... the media doesn't really seem all that interested in voting for her much. Both for DPOY and all-defense, AT doesn't tend to excite voters.

AT guards 5 positions, most at a pretty lockdown level. Despite being a small ball 5, she's one of the best screen navigators in the league. Her ground coverage is insane; she can scuttle like a crab out to the 3-point to contest a 3, and get back into the paint to contest a rim attempt in the same possession. She has a serious intimidation factor. You can tell people don't like to attack her.

I'm not even making a case for her to have been DPOY this year (though I'd honestly be perfectly fine if she won it every year), but she's getting into her mid 30s now, and after back-to-back 2nd place DPOY finishes (in an era where DPOY became the consolation MVP for a few years), it's looking like she might never win one.

Doctor MJ wrote:

ESPN: DPOY
3 for Alanna Smith
1 for A'ja Wilson

Me


So, the Lynx have a DRtg that is 7.5 points better when Smith pays bench. I'd love to see some good regression data on this, but from my experience, it's awfully hard to believe that a player like that can be the top defensive player on your team, let alone the entire league.

If I were picking a Lynx candidate, I'd go with Courtney Williams. Courtney played more than any of her teammates, and had a better defesive On-Off than any of her teammates playing big minutes. Yeah she's just a small guard, but this is the WNBA the norms of the NBA (defensive bigs > defensive smalls) don't hold so clearly. In men's ball, centers didn't really become defensive anchors until we started getting guys around 6'9".

A'ja's a more reasonable candidate to me than Smith, but I do think Gabby Williams and Alyssa Thomas would be comparably good choices.

With a team as dominant as the Lynx, where they're putting out so many dominant lineup combinations, I feel on/off gets noisier. Sometimes a defensive stand out gets used to balance more offensive lineups. Out of the starters, Alanna played the least amount of minutes with Phee. In non-Alanna minutes, the Lynx use Jessica Sheppard, who's a rugged paint protector and rebounder who pairs pretty well with Phee because she can be the center (-15 rDrtg). Sheppard+Alanna minutes are slightly more awkward and slower, and manage only a league average defense. Alanna Smith without Phee or Sheppard, was still pretty elite (-6 rDrtg).

You'd have to really look into the lineups and know which combinations were playing against starters vs. bench, as the Lynx mixed and matched more than anyone.

I have a pretty hard time thinking of a reason that Alanna Smith, with her genius-level backline rotations and unique switchability could be damaging to any defense. I don't really like on/off arguments without a scouting report explaining why. Suggesting Courtney Williams is the best defensive player on the Lynx is madness. I'm not sure she's top 5 on her own team.

cupcakesnake wrote:Alyssa Thomas' relationship to the DPOY award is getting a little Tim Duncan-like. To me, she's the best defensive player of her generation (she's quite simply one of the best defenders I've ever watched play this sport) and yet... the media doesn't really seem all that interested in voting for her much. Both for DPOY and all-defense, AT doesn't tend to excite voters.

AT guards 5 positions, most at a pretty lockdown level. Despite being a small ball 5, she's one of the best screen navigators in the league. Her ground coverage is insane; she can scuttle like a crab out to the 3-point to contest a 3, and get back into the paint to contest a rim attempt in the same possession. She has a serious intimidation factor. You can tell people don't like to attack her.

I'm not even making a case for her to have been DPOY this year (though I'd honestly be perfectly fine if she won it every year), but she's getting into her mid 30s now, and after back-to-back 2nd place DPOY finishes (in an era where DPOY became the consolation MVP for a few years), it's looking like she might never win one.

I'm with you completely here. I would actually see this as even more bizarre than the Duncan situation because her specifically being a defense-oriented MVP candidate who voters aren't quite able to give her an MVP would seem to be like they would lean toward AT for DPOY, but it hasn't happened yet.

cupcakesnake wrote:

Doctor MJ wrote:

ESPN: DPOY
3 for Alanna Smith
1 for A'ja Wilson

Me


So, the Lynx have a DRtg that is 7.5 points better when Smith pays bench. I'd love to see some good regression data on this, but from my experience, it's awfully hard to believe that a player like that can be the top defensive player on your team, let alone the entire league.

If I were picking a Lynx candidate, I'd go with Courtney Williams. Courtney played more than any of her teammates, and had a better defesive On-Off than any of her teammates playing big minutes. Yeah she's just a small guard, but this is the WNBA the norms of the NBA (defensive bigs > defensive smalls) don't hold so clearly. In men's ball, centers didn't really become defensive anchors until we started getting guys around 6'9".

A'ja's a more reasonable candidate to me than Smith, but I do think Gabby Williams and Alyssa Thomas would be comparably good choices.

With a team as dominant as the Lynx, where they're putting out so many dominant lineup combinations, I feel on/off gets noisier. Sometimes a defensive stand out gets used to balance more offensive lineups. Out of the starters, Alanna played the least amount of minutes with Phee. In non-Alanna minutes, the Lynx use Jessica Sheppard, who's a rugged paint protector and rebounder who pairs pretty well with Phee because she can be the center (-15 rDrtg). Sheppard+Alanna minutes are slightly more awkward and slower, and manage only a league average defense. Alanna Smith without Phee or Sheppard, was still pretty elite (-6 rDrtg).

You'd have to really look into the lineups and know which combinations were playing against starters vs. bench, as the Lynx mixed and matched more than anyone.

I have a pretty hard time thinking of a reason that Alanna Smith, with her genius-level backline rotations and unique switchability could be damaging to any defense. I don't really like on/off arguments without a scouting report explaining why. Suggesting Courtney Williams is the best defensive player on the Lynx is madness. I'm not sure she's top 5 on her own team.

Thanks for your insights cup. I appreciate being able to learn from you thoughts.

Not surprised A'ja won, but pretty surprised that it was by a substantial margin.

It was a nearly impossible choice, and I wouldn't have hated if the voting had landed on a Co-MVP situation.

Rough for Phee.

She's had a career of bad beats all around. Last year's Finals, lost on a couple Final Four buzzer beaters in college, and now back to back MVP caliber seasons, but happens to play in the same league as A'ja.

I don't disagree with A'ja winning MVP. If I were voting, I'd have a really hard time making the decision.

Statistically, they were very close. A'ja finished with slightly higher raw numbers, and Phee had a slight edge in efficiency. By the end of the season, A'ja even negated most of the 50/40/90 distinction for Phee (A'ja finished with 50.4/42.4/85.5, albeit on less than half the three point volume), which at one time I thought would help tilt the vote Phee's way.

Then there was the team success dimension, where the dominance of the Lynx helped Phee's narrative from the start, but A'ja carrying the Aces through a historic winning streak to close the season, while playing 7 more games than Phee, largely negated that. Plus, Phee missing 11 total games, which is fully 25% of the season, probably nudged some voters away from her.

Meanwhile, AT is one of my favorite players. She had a great season and was the "engine" behind her new team's leap from also-ran to contender. But despite her edge in playmaking, I think the gap in scoring volume, complete lack of perimeter shooting, and mediocre free throw shooting, probably put her behind the top 2 in the minds of voters, given that all three players are outstanding DPOY caliber defenders.