^^
I think your opinion about American soccer is correct; however, I disagree with you concerning China's future basketball prospects.
The fact of the matter is, China's still a developing country and the majority of their population is still poor and weak (700 million + peasants living on less than $3/day). What system does the Chinese government have in place to make sure that prospective players from the hinterlands succeed? Where's the infrastructure? I'm sure the Chinese government is more worried about improving the peasants' living standards than producing bball players. Also, these 700 million + Chinese peasants are still poor and lack the diet of people from the coastal cities. In addition, the current Chinese bball developmental system has consistently failed to produce an NBA quality guard (not scrubs like Chen Jianghua and Sun Yue) for over a decade. I don't see the proper sports authorities doing anything about this. They seem too content with winning medals in diving, gymnastics, ping pong, and badminton to care.
The system of finding and training prospective athletes at a young age based on measurements and tests, which the Chinese have adopted, has produced a few great NBA players in the past (Divac, Kukoc, Sabonis, Petrovic, and Marciulionis); however, it has failed to produce any superstars.
Yes, China has a huge population, but that alone doesn't make it inevitable that they'll eventually become a basketball superpower. Moreover, they lack the innate qualities and social environment which make American players so great. China's best bet is observe countries with great developmental programs (Spain, Argentina, Lithuania, etc.) and study how they train their players. This might allow them to make some progress in a short period of time. Nobody, and I mean nobody, can replicate what American players like Wade, Lebron, and Kobe do on the court, unless you come from a similar background. In other words, unless you're tall, athletic, and "look the part," you need to focus on fundamentals and teamwork in order to gain an advantage over American players. There's no denying this. Players like Bird, Stockton, Mullin, Price, Nowitzki, etc. are rare, but they prove that players who possess solid fundamental skills, high bball IQs, and determination can compete and beat players with superior athleticism and talent. That should give China some hope. What's great about America is that we're producing players who possess all of these traits (i.e. Jordan, Lebron, Wade, and Kobe).