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Who do we want to start?

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Post#41 » by Paydro70 » Tue Mar 4, 2008 6:43 pm

jdm3, e4nf6 was just teasing you because you pulled out the "I go to grad school for math," especially since none of the problems you mentioned are mathematical anyway. Hollinger never claims to include man-to-man defense, and of course his stats are on a per-possession basis, because that's the best way to equalize for pace and playing time.

If you want to look at accumulated stats, fine, but they're nearly worthless in comparison to possession measures of efficiency. All you're getting from using totals is a statement of how much a coach likes a player. That's sometimes useful information, because coaches are usually knowledgeable about basketball and play who they think is best, but sometimes coaches make mistakes.

There are already attempts to include adjusted +/- and PER into a more comprehensive score... here: http://www.82games.com/nichols3.htm
and here:
http://www.82games.com/nichols2.htm

As Walt already noted, we only know that Landry and Dudley can play well in the minutes that they play. One response is "pssshhht they're just scrubs racking up stats!" Another response is "wait, if they can do it, how come every scrub can't? Maybe they have potential, we should play them more minutes and see what they can do!" We don't know how well Dudley would play with 25 minutes instead of 15, but I would like to know.

Heck, as you point out, some players play better with extra minutes, so we should definitely be seeing if he can keep up this efficiency on more minutes.
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Post#42 » by BeesWax » Tue Mar 4, 2008 8:31 pm

Its all mathematical. The problems I brought up are with his basic analysis, which is mathematical. Also I never mention grad school and never would have if someone had not accused me of not being able to understand what was happening. I only mentioned it in defense of my understanding.
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Post#43 » by doc.end » Wed Mar 5, 2008 12:52 am

Go away.
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Post#44 » by Walt Cronkite » Wed Mar 5, 2008 1:51 am

What problems with his basic analysis did you bring up that weren't already/have sense then been addressed?

I never targeted you specifically as being unable to understand, only listed the most common reasons people bash PER. That's what all those slashes were for, it's a pretty lengthy list.
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Post#45 » by BeesWax » Wed Mar 5, 2008 3:57 am

As of that point walt it had not been mention that translating limited minutes does not show true measures. You later brought that up. Thank you for being reasonable about this also. I have been working on some NBA stuff and just going through these different systems and they are all lacking. Of course since there are things that can't be quantified there will never be a perfect one. If these guys really put there heads together for a year or so and spent the time putting egos aside, I think they might be able to combine whats out there into real solid information. The only process I mentioned that has not really been brought up is creator bias. He made and tweaked with the results till he got what he wanted, this creates a bias toward his beliefs about players. You should never play for certain results you should get results from what you do and find out why you get them.

Doc real mature you can go away now. I don't see why disliking Dudley make me less of a Bobcats fan when I have been around since we got the team.
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Post#46 » by BigSlam » Wed Mar 5, 2008 4:05 am

doc.end wrote:Go away.

No need for nastiness doc.
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Post#47 » by Walt Cronkite » Wed Mar 5, 2008 8:53 pm

jd, we keep sidetracking the thread, but I have to get some clarification on creator bias. "He made and tweaked with the results till he got what he wanted, this creates a bias toward his beliefs about players. You should never play for certain results you should get results from what you do and find out why you get them."

I agree with the 2nd sentence, but you have to explain the first part. When I look at the top of the PER list I see a breakdown of the most offensively efficient players in the league for the 07-08 season.
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Post#48 » by doc.end » Wed Mar 5, 2008 10:13 pm

BigSlam wrote:-= original quote snipped =-


No need for nastiness doc.
I couldn't stand the cluelessness. Sorry. That just wasn't worth longer comment.
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Post#49 » by Paydro70 » Thu Mar 6, 2008 2:47 am

Just a note... Mark Madsen has never had more than 10 rebs in a game in his career (428 games), and he reached that number 3 times. Dudley has already done it 4.
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Post#50 » by Walt Cronkite » Thu Mar 6, 2008 2:50 am

So... Felton/Richardson/Wallace/Dudley/Okafor?
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Post#51 » by doc.end » Thu Mar 6, 2008 8:20 am

"Madsen" just had 18 rebounds - we should cut him right now
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Post#52 » by BeesWax » Thu Mar 6, 2008 2:11 pm

I never said we should cut him. I just said with him as the sixth man we will not be good enough to make the playoffs. I also said when I thought he was going to be the ninth or tenth man I liked the pick. So the 18 in 41 minutes makes up for the 3 in 33 the game before. I mean Carroll got 11 so abviously GS is a good rebounding team. I hope he pans out into something I just have my doubts. Thats not cluelessness it is being realistic. Limited athletic ability will hold him back.
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Post#53 » by doc.end » Thu Mar 6, 2008 8:39 pm

i was almost thinking your last post actually makes sense then I spotted the last sentence. Dudley is not an athletic player but he makes it up by pure instincts and anticipation. I can't see how it held him back against Warriors who are definitely very athletic.

Nobody said you've said this. But you compared him to Madsen which is probably the worst comparison I've ever seen. Their games are different, their personalities couldn't differ more (Mad Dog vs. a true spokesman).

Yes Warriors are not the best rebounding team, that's true. But come on, you can't expect 18 rpg. Everybody even Emeka or Crash have low rebounding games sometimes. It is not important whether you rebnound the ball or help a teammate to do this. It is importatn to do these little things which can help the team win. And that's one of Jared's biggest strenght.
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