"Okafor Ready to Move On" (page 18)

[Vanderbilt_Grad]

Fluff I get where you are coming from, but at the same time I think that you let them off too easily. There were plenty of folks that hammered the Cats for not getting Paul when that draft went down. There was plenty of complaining about the May pick then too. While it's true that few folks projected Paul to be as good as he is, lots of folks thought he would be special ... and even at the time Felton + May was seen as inferior to a Paul pick. It was largely seen as bad then it's just that it looks even worse now.

[Felton for Pres]

Yeah, as your research indicates, the suspected problem with May was CONDITIONING. Weight. Nobody thought his knee would keep him out for 2 years+. Frankly, if May's knee was healthy, he would have been an excellent pick, despite his weight, height, and conditioning. His knee wasn't.

I almost responded with the same thing. However, excess weight leads, quite frequently, to bum knees. So while conditioning/weight were the direct concerns, bum knees become clear indirect concerns.

As for the draft history, while hindsight is 20/20, I was not unhappy about passing on the Paul trade. I was pleased that we were trying to add depth. While the selections didn't pan out, I have no right to complain. As for Morrison, that one kills me. I wanted Roy so bad, I didn't care that he didn't want to work out for us. Oh well...I'm sure we'll be having these same gripes about our draft this season when DJ proves to be too small and Randolph/Arthur/Jordan/[pick your big guy we passed on] ends up being a stud.

[Rich4114]

I think most of us were all for trading both picks to get Paul, myself included. But nobody thought the decision not to would end up looking THIS bad. I think par of the problem is we fell into the one expansion trap of quantity over quality - which only works _sometimes_ in the NFL and never in the NBA.

This team has a mix of bad and good moves, the problem is the bad moves end up being major WTF type of moves typically. So while I'll give them some slack every now and then, for the most part I'm of the opinion that they're either clueless or have some sort of other agenda we are not aware of.

[BigSlam]

I think the morning of the '05 draft I thought that taking Green #5 and hoping Jack was there at #13 was the way I wanted to go.

Goes to show how much I know!!

[Paydro70]

Lots of weird points being made in this thread, and unsurprisingly it's gotten pretty heated. Just a few thoughts:

1) Chris Paul and Sean May could not be less related to Okafor, please lets end this tangent here. Hamilton's point is well taken that we are not obligated to agree with the front office's assessment of anything. Also, saying "no real college success" about Paul is extraordinarily absurd... he was a first-team all-american, he was a star in college. I personally was very excited at the possibility of getting him, and would have done the trade in a heartbeat at the time. Paul did not come out of nowhere, everyone thought he should have gone #2 instead of Marvin Williams.

Next we'll move to a few points in this debate, starting with an easy one:

2) Position. Okafor played about 2/3 of his minutes at C this season, but 82games doesn't do the split properly (it thinks Okafor is the C when he's on with Nazr... I guess someone could email Roland Beech about it, he fixed it for me when I emailed him about Ray/McInnis earlier). So it's tough to make any real conclusions about that 1/3 of his minutes, and I'm personally not inclined to think it made that much difference.

3) Rebounding. Okafor is among the league's best rebounders no matter how you slice it: He was #13 in the league in overall rebound rate, and #7 among players over 30mpg. It's actually quite wrong to say he's an elite O-boarder; he finished 41st in OReb rate. He was, however, #9 in Dreb rate (these numbers include some short-minute guys like Reggie Evans, etc.). This was actually Emeka's career worst on the offensive boards, but his career best on the defensive boards. Regardless, a big deal should not be made out of this; he's doing basically the same as he always has. He's probably never going to get better at it, but he probably isn't going to get worse until he's 35, and that's fine since he's one of the league's best. That isn't "stagnation," it's consistency.

4) Shot blocking. Emeka took a major step back this year in shot blocking. He fell to 24th in the league in blocks/48 (he's around the same in block % and other measures), which is still very good, but not elite. Last year he was a solid top 10 in any measure of blocking ability. I don't know how to explain that... I don't see how that could be anyone's fault but his, but I'm also not sure why it would fall off, except maybe that he wasn't trying very hard. I'm not going to speculate further on that.

5) Shooting. So here's the biggie; there's a lot of confusion over all this. Hamilton obviously believes that Okafor is underutilized, and has seen his role decline as the years have gone by. To some extent this should be expected, since he started out on a team where he was far and away the best option, and other pieces (improved Wallace, JRich) were added later. However, given Okafor's exceptional 3rd year in comparison to the first two (jumping from the .400s to .532 shooting), it would seem like he should take more shots to see if he can keep it up.

However, the reality is that Okafor actually saw the ball MORE this last season than the season before. In 06-07, Okafor "used" 19.1% of the team's possessions while on the floor, this year, 20%. It's true, as Hamilton points out, that Okafor took 0.5 fewer shots per game. How is this possible?

A) Slightly less playing time. Per minute, Okafor shot exactly the same number of shots per game. B) More turnovers. Okafor turned the ball over 11.3% of the time two years ago, but 13.8%, a career high, last season. C) Less passing. Emeka got assists on 6% of his possessions two years ago, but only 4.5% this season. Blame B and C on whatever you like, but the reality is that Emeka actually got the chance to do something with the ball MORE last season than the year before, but was less successful with it. Hence (along with the lower rebounding) the drop in PER, from 20.1 to 17.4.

That 20% usage rate is, however, lower than his first two seasons, when he got it for ~21.5%. His first season he almost literally did nothing but shoot once he got the ball; his assist rate and turnover rate were both career lows. I think it's quite fair for Hamilton to suggest that is the very bottom of the barrel as far as how well Emeka can do. What this last season might indicate, however, is that perhaps 53% shooting on ~20% of the team's possessions is about as well as he's going to do.

There's a world of difference between 53% on 20% and 45% on 22%. I don't know whether Emeka would keep up 50% shooting on 22% of possessions, but there is most likely a price to be paid somewhere for Emeka taking more shots. Turnovers, for one thing, lower FG% is another. I think there is room for Emeka to get more shots, but there is also plenty of room for Emeka to do better with the ones he's got, and I don't just mean FG%. His FT% is abysmal, and he turns it over too much, and it's not like he's passing.

[W_HAMILTON]

Yeah, as your research indicates, the suspected problem with May was CONDITIONING. Weight.

Uh, yeah.

Frankly, if May's knee was healthy, he would have been an excellent pick, despite his weight, height, and conditioning. His knee wasn't.

If his weight isn't the number #1 as to why he has knee problems to begin with, it would be #2. Even if you say his knee injury was a fluke and anyone could have had the same injury, there is no doubt that his continually awful conditioning is one of the reasons why his problems have been so drawn out.

[W_HAMILTON]

This team has a mix of bad and good moves, the problem is the bad moves end up being major WTF type of moves typically.

And what's funny is, apparently this organization can't make enough bad moves, so the few good moves we've made, they're trying to turn into bad moves as well (Wallace possibly on the trading block, the Okafor situation, etc).

I guess I should look for them to turn around and salary dump Richardson for a second rounder next year or something.

[fatlever]

great stuff as usual paydro.

[fluffernutter]

BTW report on headlines GM says Bobcats offering Okafor $10 million per year now, down from $12 million...

Hey they signed GWall to a good contract...maybe Okafor will bite?

[DaBassSource]

Nice roundup Paydro....
I guess what I see from my seat when watching Mek is that he gets rebounds but does not attack the boards ... And that is usually seen on the offensive board where you actually have to go get the rebound.
On the offensive side I see Mek getting touches maybe not as many as some would like, but when he does get to shoot, all the defense has to do is give him a foul that alters his shot. He does not go up strong and rarely seems be in an "and one" situation. Now when he gets fouled, shooting his free throws become another issue. To me he seems to be much the same player as in college. Just a diff level of comp and a lot less put back dunks.

[Rich4114]

I'm going to build my own case as to why we should offer Okafor 12.5-13m per right now.

#1. Defense. This was his thing coming out of college and it's been his thing since his rookie year. Okafor is a defensive force at Center (though undersized for a center) he is one of the BEST in the league at blocking shots AND he can put a body on slightly bigger guys. He's not great at it yet, but some aspects of it he's outstanding. He is a Ben Wallace (good Ben Wallace) type of player. While it's nice to have a scoring big, and Okafor can get his pts here and there, it's more difficult to find someone as talented as him on the defensive side of the ball. Keep in mind, he is a center eventhough he's only 6'10"ish so you can't expect him to turn mobile and begin defending Okur type of PF's on the perimeter.

#2. Rebounding. As everyone else has noted, he's among the tops in the league at rebounding. Enough said. We are a poor rebounding team yet we have one of the better rebounders in the league on it. He needs some help up front, but not having Okafor in there to rebound anymore for us would easily make us dead last in rebounding. Less rebounds = less chances to score = less wins. How much are wins worth?

#3. The Contract Effect. Okafor turned down the 12m/yr last season in hopes of building on his awesome 2007 performance and being worth more like 14m. He knows he was making a big gamble, we all knew he was making a big gamble. What if he got hurt? That was the big thing against him the first two years - his injury history (ankles, back). One injury this season could cost him millions. So maybe he didn't take some of the risks he normally would take? I don't know, but that definitely was something you would have to imagine was in his head and maybe PART of the reason he didn't give us what he gave us the year before pre-injury.

#4. The Vincent Effect. Vincent took a shakey situation and made it worse. He had NO plan for Okafor and did not understand how to use him. Okafor and Vincent clashed resulting in inconsistant minutes regardless of performance. This most definitely effected him, you could see it in his face and read it in his comments. Put a good player in a bad situation and you're not going to get the best results. It'd be no different if you put some of the on the cusp all-stars out there in this situation either - they too would not look as good.

#5. The 2007 Season. Look at what he did in 2007 for us defensively. This team really caught on about mid-way through the season and then Okafor got hurt right before that west coast swing (or during, I can't remember) and we fell apart. It was apparent while Wallace was playing outstanding for us, Okafor was the MVP because when he went down - we stopped winning and couldn't stop people inside. The 2007 season wasn't a fluke, this is what Okafor is capable of and that performance every year alone is worth 12m/yr in my book.

#6. Improvements to his game from 2007-2008. One of the things we would all rag on Okafor was his reluctance to throw it down around the rim. All too often Okafor would have the ball in scoring position and try laying it in only to have his not so soft touch cause the ball to not quite make it through the hoop. Once he began finishing around the rim better, we saw his FG% go up (regardless of the whole 53% 20% of the time stuff. While that plays a role, I think if you look at it from a more simple standpoing as he simply finished better around the rim being the main reason he had a higher FG%. He certainly didn't become a good shooter, he improved his spin and finish moves a bit but he dunked a hell of a lot more this year than last. Why do you think Dwight Howard dominates so much? Because 90% of his frickin shots are dunks. (exaggerating, but still).

#7. After seeing what these other big men who I consider lesser players to Okafor (like Beindress, Bogut, Chandler, etc.) that simply makes Okafor worth more than those guys. So if Bogut is getting 12m per with incentives, than Okafor should be getting more. If those teams will pay those guys that kind of money, someone out there will pay Okafor even more - bank on it. The only reason we haven't seen someone offer it yet is because everyone knows we'd match the offer. Big men win championships, and every GM in the NBA knows this.

So in summary, Okafor is a great defending big man who is a league leader in rebounds, can finish around the rim at an efficient rate, has the potential to drop 10 blocks in one game, and can give us a significant advantage defensively up front and in the post resulting in more wins per year. Putting him in a good defensive system like Browns would likely get the pluses from 2007 and 2008 on top of any improvements he's made over the summer and you're looking at a potential all-star if the Bobcats as a team do well. We pay Matt Carroll 4m/yr and I would say Okafor's worth to this team is at least 3 times Hammer if not more, right?

He's got some things he needs to improve on that could make him a lot more dangerous (like FT shooting, developing a nice mid range jumper, less turnovers) but let's pay the man and get us into the damn playoffs already. In another few years it'll just be more expensive to get the same type of production out of any of the other options that will be out there on the table.

[daidalos]

So it is 12 million anyway ...

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=3509028

[GoBobcats]

Hopefully they get it done now.
12 mill sounds fair

[pondin]

Okay I broke my promise to post on this matter.

Just to respond to paydro's post.

I never implied that Okafor is not important to this team that we should low balled him the offer. God knows with Wallace playing PF, we need a great defensive C to protect the paint.

I am simply saying that Okafor stagnation is evidence that he has reached the peak in terms of his potential. Therefore, the contract offer should only be evaluated base on his previous performance since it is more likely he will not improve upon these numbers.

Okafor only mange to avg more than 2 blks in one season. So, I'm not sure if we should be surprised that he only managed 1.7 this year. Or was it a one year wonder?

In terms of reb, just to name a few big men such as Biedrins (.358 reb/min), Kaman (.341 reb/min), Dwight (.376 reb/min) have manage to improve their rebs on a per minute basis although they came in the league as a good rebounder already. Okafor- .323 reb/min

In terms for his improvement in FG from 45% to 53%, I thought some of it was a direct result of less shots and better teammates. I do believe believe Okafor has improve in this cat somewhat, but not significantly that he could shoot 50% on the same amount of FG attempts.
However, this is still not a good standard bar. Big men are supposed to shoot over 50%. Especially Big Men that command 10mil or more and lives in the paint such as Okafor. He doesn't shoot 3's and he doesn't attempt mid range jumpers and I'm assuming he gets quite a bit of putback baskets.

[tsherkin]

And so at last, Okafor's contract is resolved.

As well it should be, it took too long and the Bobcats are better off with him secured for the long-term. That deal is in-line with other players at his level of production and those who have the potential to exceed said production by a small amount.

It's not an outlandish or garish contract, it's a pretty sound deal for a guy who's 13/11 with 1.5-2+ bpg and solid post defense. It also does value him at a certain level and oblige him to play up to his contract, which is good (and Okafor isn't a punk, he's not going to dog it this year, I don't think). Larry Brown, I'm hoping, will do good things with Emeka, especially because he does play pretty good D to begin with, something that matters a lot to LB.

Congrats, Charlotte, and good luck next season.