Okafor's Defense

[W_HAMILTON]

You just rattled off 12 players, when as I stated, Okafor has been top-10 every year in his career, at least when it comes to rebounding. So, where have the others been?

According to ShamSports, this is the amount (in millions) that each of those players are making this year:

20.60 - Duncan
15.07 - Yao
13.76 - Howard
11.38 - Miller
11.35 - Chandler
11.24 - Dalembert
11.00 - Jefferson
10.00 - Camby
09.54 - Okafor
09.50 - Kaman
09.00 - Biedrins
06.29 - Bogut (rookie contract)
04.03 - Horford (rookie contract)

So, what is the problem again? Okafor can get those "9.5+ rebounds, 10+ points, and over 1.5bppg," and he's doing it at one of the cheapest prices among the other guys you listed. Not counting rookie contracts, he's making barely $500,000 more than the smallest contract player you listed. And whether he's an "elite" defender, a "very good defender," or "an above average" defender, his defense is comparable or better than most of the players you listed.

So, what is the problem again?

[fatlever]

One point I do understand is your response to Fats, who mentions that there are players who rebound better than Emeka per-48. First, I don't think Fats is referring to guys like Jerome James or Shavlik Randolph; those guys who played less than 20 games don't really matter. It's really more like Andris Biedrins, who was a better rebounder last year but it came at the cost of high fouls. Second, he exaggerated a bit, Emeka was 25th in rebounds per 48 and 32nd in rebound rate. If you include only guys who played substantive minutes, Emeka stays in the top 10 of both.

So... I'd say there's no doubt that Emeka is a very good rebounder (or "elite," of course that really is just semantics, I'd say he's elite since he's top 20 by any measure), but what is in dispute here is how good he is at man defense. To me it's not just semantics... if Emeka is an above-average defender, we may have overpaid him. If he's an elite defender struggling with some new coaching, we got a good deal. Even more importantly, maybe he just needs a semi-competent wingman and he'll be a true lockdown big.

thats really the point i was making, but you said it better. i got my per 48 numbers off bball ref over the weekend. i'll have to double check.

anyway.... i'm not really concerned with his rebounding as he is elite or close to elite, more just questioning how good of a defender he really is? do other teams fear mek like they use to fear ben wallace or like teams fear garnett now? can he anchor a top 5 defense (with the right supporting cast) the way tim duncan has done or the past decade? thats what i want to know.

[W_HAMILTON]

I doubt anyone "fears" Okafor's defense, but at the same time, I don't "fear" the defense provided by most of those guys Paydro70 listed, either. I wouldn't say people "feared" Garnett's defense, and people didn't "fear" Ben Wallace's defense so much as they did Detroit's entire defense.

In terms of defense, there's very few big men in the league anymore that people "fear" going up against alone. Maybe Yao (due to his size) and Howard (due to his athleticism); maybe Duncan in previous years, but it looks like he is starting to decline. So, that's the top three big men that Paydro70 listed in terms of contract; for the rest of the list, who else would inspire "fear?" No one. And if you can argue that players are scared to go up against any of the others on that list, then you can sure could make an argument for Okafor, too.

[fatlever]

garnett is the best defensive big man in the league right now. maybe "fear" isnt the right word, however he changes almost every game with his defense. ben wallace, in his prime did the same as did duncan who has been doing it on a nightly basis for a decade and so on.

who are the best defensive big men in the past 20 years? where does okafor rank on that list?

not in order:
duncan
garnett
ben wallace
mutombo
hakeem
camby
ratliff
cliff robinson
karl malone
shaq
mourning
pj brown
david robinson
oakley
rodman
horace grant
nance
buck williams
mahorn
ac green
ewing
mchale
mckey

[W_HAMILTON]

If Okafor didn't have an effect on the game, we wouldn't have allowed over 108ppg when we lost him for about a month back a couple seasons ago. We would have just kept chugging on with him, rather than allowing 100 points, then 135 points, then 127 points, then 96 points, then 120 points, then 115 points, then another 115 points, then 108 points, then 108 points, then 102 points, etc.

And it's a little interesting that you compare him to some of the worst players in the league (the per-48 leaders, shout out to Mahinmi!), then compare him to "the best defensive big men in the past 20 years."

He's one of the best defensive big men in the game today, and it's clear his salary is certainly in line with what he provides, given the contracts of comparable players.

[e4Nf6]

Incidentally, total rebound percentage is a better indicator of rebounds as it doesn't favor player on faster-playing teams like rebounds per game or per 48. Mek has finished 8th, 7th, 7th, and currently sits 7th in TRB%.

That's all carry on....

[fatlever]

http://blogs.charlotte.com/inside_the_n ... stats.html

[floppymoose]

Can you give me a link to find a ranking of this season's players sorted by TRB%? Thanks!

[Walt Cronkite]

http://blogs.charlotte.com/inside_the_nba/2008/11/based-on-stats.html

The more things change, the more they stay the same?

[e4Nf6]

I use basketball-reference.com.

Here is the Bobcat's page, you can stroll down to "Advanced" to see the various percentage stats.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/CHA/2009.html

The league-leader is usually a bit over 20% the average is of course 10%, and Dennis Rodman had a season once just a hair under 30%.

Here are the Bobcat's TRB% numbers(before the dallas game):

1. Hollins 20.2%
2. Andre Brown 18.5%
3. Okafor 18.1%
4. Wallace 14.1%
5. Ajinca 14.0%
6. Sean May 12.9%
7. Dudley 9.7%
8. Carrol 7.9% (!)
9. Richardson 7.8%
10. Morrison 6.4%
11. Nazr 5.9%
12. Felton 5.4%
13. Augustin 4.5%
14. Shannon Brown 1.8%

Hollins and Brown's number are in Limited minutes so they will probably go down a bit. 5.9% is really terrible for a C/PF I think we can see why Nazr has been a spectator so far this season.

[fatlever]

the stat that trips me out... morrison has a higher efg% than mek. that wont last too long though. i think adams 3pt% will come down a little.

[Paydro70]

e4: I agree rebound rate is more accurate, though in this context it doesn't really make too much of a difference.

Ham, I definitely don't think Okafor is making too much this year... the question is whether we'll feel the same way when we're paying him 12.5, 13.5, or 14.5m a year. I don't know how that salary will stack up to comparable players at that time (since salaries always increase).

Certainly he has an effect on the defense, the question is whether it's big enough to make up for the (relative) lack of offense.

[W_HAMILTON]

Ham, I definitely don't think Okafor is making too much this year... the question is whether we'll feel the same way when we're paying him 12.5, 13.5, or 14.5m a year.

And most of those other players are going to have contracts that increase as well. At the end of their current contracts, the older players might settle for smaller contracts, but it's also likely their skills will decline, if they are even still in the league. You have younger players that come in, but they are on cheaper contracts, and if they are able to produce at a high level consistently, they, too, will get the larger contracts when they are eligible for them.

So, it's a silly point to argue. It's rare to find legitimate, consistent double-double threats that don't eventually end up making at least around 10m/year. Okafor entered into the league as a double-double threat, and has maintained that level of production for the past few years, something only a few players during that same time span can say.

As for his offense, I've already said what I think about that. No one is going to be an offensive threat getting 6 shots/game. Lebron would have a "lack of offense" if he only got 6 or 7 shots a game.