OT: Harden traded for K Martin and Lamb

[mrknowitall215]

Personally I think that OKC is taking a huge risk. Regardless of whether or not Harden is a "max player" by pure stats ... for OKC he was. He made that team work and won them many of the games that got them to the finals. Yes he didn't do well during the biggest games of the year, but he's only 23 and still learning.

What OKC got was "potential" ... things might work out for them, but they went from certainty to hoping for the best. I don't think that they are are lock to make it back to the finals this year or next after this move. That said what they are doing that I like is building a high level team that should stay really good for a long time. It's just no longer a sure thing that they will have a great team.

The root of their problems is overpaying Westbrook.

???

...but Westbrook is only 23 and still learning too. Unlike Harden, he has proven that he deserves a max contract and was willing to give the Thunder front office a 'loyalty discount' to stay in OKC. Westbrook is a 2x NBA All-Star & NBA All-Pro Team selection that has scored an efficiency rating of over 23 PER in back-to-back seasons, while Harden has yet to make a single All-Star team and just coming off a drastically improved from the previous seasons' career high efficiency rating of 21.13 PER. Westbrook is far from the root of the Thunder problems. They are only one of the youngest teams in the league and already contending for championships. I'd say that problems are far and in between for them compared to the rest of the NBA organizations.

[SWedd523]

He hasn't even shown the ability to average over 20 points per game yet

I think you're putting way too much stock into this.

He's a guy who has yet to play a full season at starter's minutes. He's one of the more efficient wings in the league and only scores so "few" (in parenthesis because he would've been our leading scorer last year at 16.8) points because he doesn't take enough shots to do so. It's not for lack of scoring ability, more like scoring opportunity.

He took 629 shots last year. That's only 83rd in the league. Behind guys like Brandon Bass, Leandro Barbosa, Randy Foye, Marco Belinelli, and our own Gerald Henderson.

At even a modest decrease in percentages, he's still easily going to be a 20+ guy

I'm not stating that he can't or won't average over 20+ points per game, but what I am stating is that the very same thing that has earned him his recent praise, SCORING EFFICIENCY, will take a major hit when he's not playing alongside superstars in Kevin Durant & Russell Westbrook and seeing more L's than W's in the record column to the point where the Rockets will be questioning giving him that max contract sooner than later. I believe that his ascension into the go-to guy role will mirror more of a Monta Ellis than Dwyane Wade. I'm not trying to shoot pessimism all over Harden's parade, but the move by the Rockets was more risky than many perceive.

That's what is so good about Harden though. As a 49/39 shooter, his shooting could drop a few percentage points and still be in great shape

[mrknowitall215]

That's what is so good about Harden though. As a 49/39 shooter, his shooting could drop a few percentage points and still be in great shape

If I can recall, there was a season where Monta Ellis averaged 20+ points on 53% shooting. I think he was only about 22 years old around that time too. Somebody should have offered him a max contract. I'm just saying.

[toddlincoln]

The monta ellis comparison is cheap. Monta Ellis could not shoot worth a crap during that season (look at his 3 point%). Looking at advanced stats, Ellis also never cracked 19 PER (Harden has already hit over 21).

Just looking at how they play and how Ellis played then (during the 07-08 "we believe" season), it's OBVIOUS they're completely different players:

1) Harden is an elite shooting talent. He shot nearly 40% on 3 pointers with Durant/Westbrook on the bench. That's absurd. He's creating incredibly efficient shots with the best players on his team sitting. Ellis, meanwhile, has only been a net-positive 3 point shooter a couple times in his career. He is not a great shooter by any stretch of the imagination.

2) Harden creates his own shots at the rim at A MUCH HIGHER RATE than Ellis. Ellis scores at the rim more (in the 07-08 season, 44% of his shots v. 33% of Harden's shots this past year; for comparison, Ellis shot 30% of his shots inside while on the Bucks last year), but those shots are being assisted at a MUCH higher rate. Harden was only assisted on 28% of his shots inside. That means, when he's scoring at the rim, 72% of his shots are created solely by him. That is ELITE. For reference, that is comparable with someone like Westbrook (Durant isn't as good as either of them in this respect, which makes sense considering his insane ability to knock down jumpers). Monta Ellis? About half of shots are created by someone else -- in both seasons 07-08 and 11-12.


It's pretty clear that Harden is a much better shooter than Ellis (ts% career best of 58% v. Harden's career best 66% which is insane) and also MUCH better at creating shots at the rim. He also draws fouls at almost double the rate as Ellis (21% v. 14% in Ellis 07-08 numbers; 10% for Ellis in 2010-2012). Ellis also turns the ball over at much higher rate.

Defensively, they're pretty equivalent. Neither are "amazing" defenders by any stretch of the imagination, though Harden did pretty well defending LeBron in the finals -- he just sucked offensively during that period.

So, to make this clear:

Harden is a much, much better offensive force than Ellis ever is/was. Surprisingly, their usages are very, very similar so these stats are pretty comparable 1 to 1. And Ellis is by no stretch a bad player -- he's awesome as an offensive weapon.

So to suggest that Harden isn't worth a max contract is ludicrous when he is better than an 11 million dollar player in every way including size, being much younger, and having no history of being injury prone.

[HornetJail]

Personally I think that OKC is taking a huge risk. Regardless of whether or not Harden is a "max player" by pure stats ... for OKC he was. He made that team work and won them many of the games that got them to the finals. Yes he didn't do well during the biggest games of the year, but he's only 23 and still learning.

What OKC got was "potential" ... things might work out for them, but they went from certainty to hoping for the best. I don't think that they are are lock to make it back to the finals this year or next after this move. That said what they are doing that I like is building a high level team that should stay really good for a long time. It's just no longer a sure thing that they will have a great team.

The root of their problems is overpaying Westbrook.

That is the worst misspelling of "Perkins" that I've ever seen.

[James Gatz]

The root of their problems is overpaying Westbrook.

That is the worst misspelling of "Perkins" that I've ever seen.

I think you both are misspelling CBA.

[penquin11]

Personally I love this trade for the Thunder, but am not a fan of it from the Rockets perspective. Martin is an expiring contract who has posted extremely efficient scoring numbers in the past- he should be able to score at will against other teams second units. Moreover they managed to nab Jeremy Lamb in this trade, he is the crown jewel of the trade in my book, as based off of his summerleague and pre-season showings he could be just as good as Harden was on offense (shooting) while being more athletic and much more competent on D. If I were the rockets Lamb would have been the player I wouldn't have traded (I would have traded Royce White/Terrence Jones/you name it before Lamb). Even if Lamb turns out to be a preseason wonder he still will hold good trade value for the next few years and is on a cheap contract anyways... The Thunder gained Caproom, and solid players from the trade. The Rockets got Harden, a guy comming off a terrible playoffs/preseason, in return- and he is expecting one hell of a payday. The issue with Harden is that a kindergartener could score on him, I can't name many starting 2 guards who would have great games against him if he were to be a starter, he is that terrible on D. Sure he might score anywhere from 18-24 a game, but how many points is he going to give up a game?

[HornetJail]

The root of their problems is overpaying Westbrook.

That is the worst misspelling of "Perkins" that I've ever seen.

I think you both are misspelling CBA.

Stupid autocorrect.

[dmutombo321]

Harden's debut should serve as a first step in disproving all the doubters who were skeptical of him being the real deal:

37 pts, 12 assist, 6 rebounds on 14-25 shooting while taking over in the 4th to bring Houston back from a 10 point deficit.

[Eoghan]

Bonnell shat upon the idea that Harden was a max player on twitter if that tells you anything.

[dmutombo321]

^ A number of posters on this board also shat upon the notion of us trying to pry away Harden with a max contract offer if he hit the open market when I suggested it last season

[fatlever]

that was some impressive stuff from harden. i think he will shine in this new role. i like the trade for both teams. harden was never going to get the chance to do this stuff with westbrook there and rightfully so. they didnt need to pay a 3rd option max money. in houston he can be the #1 or hopefully eventually #2 option and he can certainly be a great #2.

[BigSlam]

So MJ said we asked about Harden? What would it have cost considering the Rockets deal?

Kemba would have been out because they have Westbrook and Maynor.
Hendo might have been an option.
I'm sure they would have loved MKG as their starting SG.
Biz might be attractive.
Mully wouldn't make sense considering they gave him to us for a 2nd rounder.
BG would fill the role they brought Martin in for.

Gordon, Hendo and two 1st round picks
for
Harden, Cole Aldrich, Daequan Cook and Lazar Hayward

Keeping in mind that we also would have then signed Harden to a 5 year 80 million dollar extension as well.

Who would be down with that?

[HornetJail]

So MJ said we asked about Harden? What would it have cost considering the Rockets deal?

Kemba would have been out because they have Westbrook and Maynor.
Hendo might have been an option.
I'm sure they would have loved MKG as their starting SG.
Biz might be attractive.
Mully wouldn't make sense considering they gave him to us for a 2nd rounder.
BG would fill the role they brought Martin in for.

Gordon, Hendo and two 1st round picks
for
Harden, Cole Aldrich, Daequan Cook and Lazar Hayward

Keeping in mind that we also would have then signed Harden to a 5 year 80 million dollar extension as well.

Who would be down with that?

I don't think either team accepts that. I think it's an overpay for us (assuming it's the Detroit and Portland picks which could both end up in the lottery) and they likely want nothing to do with Gordon's contract. Not the direction they want to head in. At least K-Mart's a 20ppg scorer.

I say they would want MKG, Mullens, and the Portland pick. Slight overpay from our end, but I'd be down. We are desperate for some sort of identity that doesn't have to do with being the worst team in NBA history. An NBA All-Star would get us out of there. Freeing up some cap space and signing a solid FA would be easier because Harden is highly versatile and I think Harden would fit nicely with almost any non-shooting guard star in the league. We might slowly become a destination for FAs then. Long shot, but it would be worth a shot.

[dmutombo321]

^ Yeah, that compared to the Houston deal would be apples and oranges.

If Gordon was expiring this year rather than next than it would be a better comparison. Also he no longer packs the scoring punch that Kevin Martin will provide for OKC off the bench and I'm sure OKC views Lamb as having more upside than Henderson..

Only one of the two first rounders Houston included had heavy value (an unrpotected TOR pick I believe).

But, for the sake of argument, if we would have had the chance to deal Hendo, MKG, Gordon and say the Detroit first for Harden and sign him to an 80 mil extension, I would have done it.

We can always pick up another SF to replace MKG in next years draft but elite 23 yo SGs like Harden dont grow on trees.

Harden already represents what GM's dream Shabazz may someday become.

Speaking of which, Shabazz probably becomes our next coveted draft target since we're destined for the top 3 again. Should be interesting to see if his Freshman year lives up to the hype.