Projecting The NBA Using xWARP: Charlotte Bobcats

[BigSlam]

http://nbacouchside.com/2013/10/08/proj ... e-bobcats/

[BlackOutBuzz]

"There’s another way in which they could be even better and that’s if they simply don’t play Ben Gordon, who projects to be absolutely terrible next season after several seasons of being awful."

Yup.

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[Radu_Hornets]

Not even one mention to Taylor...

[MPM]

hmmm...fair picture. I think 32 wins sounds accurate, and I agree with his assessment that we'll look like world beaters occasionally, while spacing issues and poor shooting will kill us a lot of nights. Good read - thx for the share. Now - will 32 wins get us into the top 5 lottery?

[fatlever]

every advance stat known to man says that playing ben gordon (based on his form last year) is a disaster, yet respected analysts and local beat writers still continue to avoid the data and pretend that gordon is the same player he was 5 years ago.

either ben gordon was dogging last year in an effort to sabotage dunlap or he has reached a point where his awful defense more than offsets his offense resulting in a massive net negative. either you have a player who is a net negative due to his near league worst defense or a player who should be called out for not playing hard. which is it?

this was the question i asked bonnell last week in his chat, in a round about way. unfortunately the answer i got was one that pretty much avoided the subject.

i just want someone in the media (besides zach lowe) to call gordon out if he dogs it again on defense. and i want a coach who wont play a guy who is a massive net negative just because of a reputation or salary.

for our sake, lets hope gordon starts trying again on defense and he either helps the team or he helps us trade him at the deadline.

[fatlever]

lets harp on gordon some more please. lets get all the ammo against him in one place

http://www.82games.com/1213/1213CHA.HTM

of all the players who played at least 10% of the minutes last year, only mullens had a worse on court, off court +/- than gordon

his on court, off court +/- was an astounding -6.8, compared to MKG who had a +4.9 (i used MKG as a comparison, since those two often played for each other and rarely together.)

net PER vs his opponents at sg was -4.9.

http://www.82games.com/1213/12CHA4.HTM

defensive rating of of 115, worst on the team from anyone who played regular minuts
offensive rating of 96, which is only better than mullens, haywood, diop, thomas and higgins. thats awful for a guy who is supposed to be a great offensive player
that defensive rating of 115 was tied for worst in the league last year for players who played over 500 minutes. his 115 defensive rating was tied for 29th worst in the history of the league for players who played over 1500 minutes in a season.
defensive win shares of 0.2 tied for 13th worst in history of the league for players over 1500 minutes

defensive win shares of -0.2 worst on the team
offensive win shares of -0.4 2nd worst on the team, ahead of only mullens
win shares of -0.6 worst on the team
win share/48 minutes -0.018 3rd worst on the team ahead of higgins and tryus

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/CHA/2013.html

net team offensive rating with gordon on the floor was -15.1
net team offensive rating with gordon on the bench was -6.8
thats a difference of -8.3 net offensive rating when he was on the floor vs off the floor. only mullens at -8.7 was worse.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... -off/2013/

he had the highest usage % on the team of anyone who played more than a few games - why?
he had the 13th worse turnover % on the team
just missed having a negative assist:turnover ration


you like xRAPM stats?

gordon was a -5.57 defensive RAPM, worst on the team, by a large margin and worst in the entire league. he was the only player over -5.0. next worse was fredette at -4.9, then morrow at -4.3.
http://stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com/teams/CHA.html

he was dead **** last on combined xRAPM rankings for the league
http://stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com/ratings/2013.html

and my post at the end of last season comparing gordon with MKG for the last month of the season

just how pathetic was gordon over the past month or so? check out his +/- numbers compared to MKG. Gordon and MKG rarely were on the court together over the past month. MKG would play 1st and 3rd quarters, Gordon would play 2nd and part of 4th. when MKG played it was usually kemba/hendo/mkg and when gordon played it was usually pargo(or kemba)/gordon/henderson.

MKG Gordon
12 -12 cavs
14 -7 knicks
21 -11 bucks
-6 -15 pistons
-4 -8 grizzlies
-5 0 nets
-4 -6 heat
-1 5 sixers
2 -11 sixers
-8 5 knicks
2 -7 magic
-8 -22 heat
8 4 pistons

gordon was - 85 over this stretch, MKG was +23 over this stretch.

i dont buy the argument that gordon has worse numbers because he played with the bench. gordon got a ton of time playing with kemba and henderson during the 4th quarters.

you dont have to be a john hollinger stats guru to see the impact gordon had on this team over the last month. he was awful. simply awful. - See more at: viewtopic.php?f=53&t=1189965&start=405#sthash.1Yyt2yrX.dpuf

gordon was just bad last year, he was historically bad. come on bonnell, call this guy out for the disaster that he was last year. either he can't play any more and that needs to be addressed by benching him or he quit on the team last year, which should result in some public shaming. which is it?

[fatlever]

back to the original topic, 34 wins is a little higher than what i expect. i still predict about 30.

[mrknowitall215]

I predicted between 34-38 wins once Al Jefferson signed on. Upon watching that 1st preseason game I wanted to drop that down to 30-34, but I'll stick to my prediction. I won't allow one preseason game after only a week of training camp dictate how I view this team just yet

[MPM]

lets harp on gordon some more please. lets get all the ammo against him in one place

Fantastic - and very well substantiated - rant, Fats. Considering printing this out and keeping it my wallet for when any of the Brits here ask me about their fellow semi-Londoner.

[HornetJail]

I predict either less than 30 or more than 40. Winning 30-40 games puts us in that dangerous zone of losing our 1st to Chicago and still missing the playoffs. You know Rich Cho will have none of that. I predict 35 wins as our roster stands right now. If by mid-season, we look to be on pace to finish worse than that, we'll probably tank to about 20-25 wins and a top 6 pick, but if we're playing well, I think we make a win-now move (like the Ben Gordon+ incentive for Eric Gordon swap) to cement our place in the playoff race this year. Whatever we can do to get out of the dreaded 11-14 draft range, where I think we are headed with this current roster.

[JDR720]

32 wins sounds good, the Offense will probably be solid but the defense will be horrid