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Wild Speculation and Predictions - Summer of 2016

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Re: Wild Speculation and Predictions - Summer of 2016 

Post#21 » by EwingSweatsALot » Wed Jul 30, 2014 3:50 pm

mrknowitall215 wrote:Is there a chance that the players could fight for the ability to become less restricted free-agents after their 4th year in the league, that could force Anthony Davis into possibly becoming a part of the Charlotte Hornets? I could see that happening at the next CBA dispute from the players' committee, especially upon viewing how it appeared that Kyrie Irving felt unfortunately locked into being in Cleveland until LeBron James came along and re-ignited the fortunes of the team


I know there as been some complaints, maybe the wrong word, from some of the bigger NBA pundits about how NBA players are basically locked into their team they are drafted by for 7 years or so. That players want more flexibility when it comes to being able to choose where they go after their rookie contract. For a guy like Davis or Kyrie, they know for a fact they are going to be on that team until their second contract is up, those teams are going to match an offer. Hell, most guys if good, are getting matched after that 4th year.

I am pretty sure it was done to help out the smaller market teams, so that they get a star and get to keep him and have the best chance of keeping him. I don't really think it is necessary know though in the way the money is structured for teams that already have the right to the player. Just let the guys current team be able to offer more money and let the player choose like they do for other free agents. Maybe still keep them somewhat restricted, how I don't know, but it really is rather strict with these guys. Blackout, might be able to give more of a thought on how the RFA could be changed with the CBA.
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Re: Wild Speculation and Predictions - Summer of 2016 

Post#22 » by BlackOutBuzz » Wed Jul 30, 2014 4:38 pm

Seems most contract structures get grandfathered in CBA to CBA. For instance, the 2011 CBA did away with 6 year contracts, but guys who already had them weren't forced to renegotiate but instead play them out.

A lot of provisions are written into the contracts, so even if the rules change a player may be bound to what's written in the deal irregardless. They could possibly change just HOW restricted a player is (like maybe giving the guy the option to pick between the team with bird rights and the team that gave the offer sheet), by altering qualifying offers or something.

Seems like any major changes wouldn't really affect any of the rookies already under contract, but the first rookie class after the new deal is agreed upon.

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Re: Wild Speculation and Predictions - Summer of 2016 

Post#23 » by HornetJail » Wed Jul 30, 2014 4:39 pm

If Davis was really, really serious about wanting to go to Charlotte (or anywhere but NO for that matter), he could simply sign a one-year contract after his rookie deal, and then be a UFA the next season. That way even if New Orleans matches the deal, he'd only be there one more year, then he'd completely control his destiny in 2017.

Of course that's a really big risk- he wouldn't want to get hurt during that one-year contract and then be stuck with something significantly less than the max for years after. Unless that happens, New Orleans has complete control of him until about 2019 or 2020 at the earliest, by which time it could become another Kevin Love situation for them.

Sure Davis would like to be in Charlotte, but it doesn't make sense to risk forfeiting tens of millions to try and force his way out- the Pelicans can't be that bad of a franchise.
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Re: Wild Speculation and Predictions - Summer of 2016 

Post#24 » by JDR720 » Wed Jul 30, 2014 5:55 pm

BizGilwalker wrote:If Davis was really, really serious about wanting to go to Charlotte (or anywhere but NO for that matter), he could simply sign a one-year contract after his rookie deal, and then be a UFA the next season. That way even if New Orleans matches the deal, he'd only be there one more year, then he'd completely control his destiny in 2017.

Of course that's a really big risk- he wouldn't want to get hurt during that one-year contract and then be stuck with something significantly less than the max for years after. Unless that happens, New Orleans has complete control of him until about 2019 or 2020 at the earliest, by which time it could become another Kevin Love situation for them.

Sure Davis would like to be in Charlotte, but it doesn't make sense to risk forfeiting tens of millions to try and force his way out- the Pelicans can't be that bad of a franchise.

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Re: Wild Speculation and Predictions - Summer of 2016 

Post#25 » by HornetJail » Wed Jul 30, 2014 5:58 pm

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True. True. That's got to be a deal-breaker for Davis. Anthony Davis to Hornets 2017.
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Re: Wild Speculation and Predictions - Summer of 2016 

Post#26 » by Hornet Mania » Wed Jul 30, 2014 8:26 pm

EwingSweatsALot wrote:
mrknowitall215 wrote:Is there a chance that the players could fight for the ability to become less restricted free-agents after their 4th year in the league, that could force Anthony Davis into possibly becoming a part of the Charlotte Hornets? I could see that happening at the next CBA dispute from the players' committee, especially upon viewing how it appeared that Kyrie Irving felt unfortunately locked into being in Cleveland until LeBron James came along and re-ignited the fortunes of the team


I know there as been some complaints, maybe the wrong word, from some of the bigger NBA pundits about how NBA players are basically locked into their team they are drafted by for 7 years or so. That players want more flexibility when it comes to being able to choose where they go after their rookie contract. For a guy like Davis or Kyrie, they know for a fact they are going to be on that team until their second contract is up, those teams are going to match an offer. Hell, most guys if good, are getting matched after that 4th year.

I am pretty sure it was done to help out the smaller market teams, so that they get a star and get to keep him and have the best chance of keeping him. I don't really think it is necessary know though in the way the money is structured for teams that already have the right to the player. Just let the guys current team be able to offer more money and let the player choose like they do for other free agents. Maybe still keep them somewhat restricted, how I don't know, but it really is rather strict with these guys. Blackout, might be able to give more of a thought on how the RFA could be changed with the CBA.


I think it makes a lot of sense to revisit the concept of RFA from the union's perspective. If maximum flexibility is still in vogue with stars in 2016 (which I would expect, Lebron has led the way in this regard and now even Durant parrots the importance of contract flexibility) the most logical low-hanging fruit is RFA. It is the mechanism that restricts player movement most.

The average age for a players "true" prime is roughly 26-27 years old, and if a player enters the league at 20 or 21 they are essentially forced to forfeit their opportunity to choose a squad before the career arc points downward. Obviously there are exceptions, and guys can still be extremely productive at 28-30, but just look at Lebron for example. He is still a great player, but his physical decline has been noticeable in just the short window he was in Miami. Now many people following the league are using the fact he likely only has 3-4 more years of elite play as part of the reason Cleveland has no choice but to obtain Love rather than wait for Wiggins to develop. Lebron has at maximum 7 years in which he is still elite to play for a team of his choosing, and he is a player with exceptional longevity. The union would be wise to target RFA if the players truly desire more flexibility.

I do believe there should be some mechanism that penalizes teams for poaching a player coming off his rookie contract, but RFA is not ideal. I would prefer a harsh penalty involving draft picks or guaranteed draft position. Perhaps to poach a hypothetical Anthony Davis or Kyrie Irving a team would be forced to forfeit 2 first round picks? Or perhaps the league could make the poaching team relinquish only one pick, but automatically guarantee that pick middle-odds in the draft lottery(the equivalent of 8th-worst)? Players like Davis and Irving would still find teams willing to pay that cost, but at least the team they are abandoning would be guaranteed a hefty return.
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Re: Wild Speculation and Predictions - Summer of 2016 

Post#27 » by EwingSweatsALot » Wed Jul 30, 2014 8:36 pm

Hornet Mania wrote:
EwingSweatsALot wrote:
mrknowitall215 wrote:Is there a chance that the players could fight for the ability to become less restricted free-agents after their 4th year in the league, that could force Anthony Davis into possibly becoming a part of the Charlotte Hornets? I could see that happening at the next CBA dispute from the players' committee, especially upon viewing how it appeared that Kyrie Irving felt unfortunately locked into being in Cleveland until LeBron James came along and re-ignited the fortunes of the team


I know there as been some complaints, maybe the wrong word, from some of the bigger NBA pundits about how NBA players are basically locked into their team they are drafted by for 7 years or so. That players want more flexibility when it comes to being able to choose where they go after their rookie contract. For a guy like Davis or Kyrie, they know for a fact they are going to be on that team until their second contract is up, those teams are going to match an offer. Hell, most guys if good, are getting matched after that 4th year.

I am pretty sure it was done to help out the smaller market teams, so that they get a star and get to keep him and have the best chance of keeping him. I don't really think it is necessary know though in the way the money is structured for teams that already have the right to the player. Just let the guys current team be able to offer more money and let the player choose like they do for other free agents. Maybe still keep them somewhat restricted, how I don't know, but it really is rather strict with these guys. Blackout, might be able to give more of a thought on how the RFA could be changed with the CBA.


I think it makes a lot of sense to revisit the concept of RFA from the union's perspective. If maximum flexibility is still in vogue with stars in 2016 (which I would expect, Lebron has led the way in this regard and now even Durant parrots the importance of contract flexibility) the most logical low-hanging fruit is RFA. It is the mechanism that restricts player movement most.

The average age for a players "true" prime is roughly 26-27 years old, and if a player enters the league at 20 or 21 they are essentially forced to forfeit their opportunity to choose a squad before the career arc points downward. Obviously there are exceptions, and guys can still be extremely productive at 28-30, but just look at Lebron for example. He is still a great player, but his physical decline has been noticeable in just the short window he was in Miami. Now many people following the league are using the fact he likely only has 3-4 more years of elite play as part of the reason Cleveland has no choice but to obtain Love rather than wait for Wiggins to develop. Lebron has at maximum 7 years in which he is still elite to play for a team of his choosing, and he is a player with exceptional longevity. The union would be wise to target RFA if the players truly desire more flexibility.

I do believe there should be some mechanism that penalizes teams for poaching a player coming off his rookie contract, but RFA is not ideal. I would prefer a harsh penalty involving draft picks or guaranteed draft position. Perhaps to poach a hypothetical Anthony Davis or Kyrie Irving a team would be forced to forfeit 2 first round picks? Or perhaps the league could make the poaching team relinquish only one pick, but automatically guarantee that pick middle-odds in the draft lottery(the equivalent of 8th-worst)? Players like Davis and Irving would still find teams willing to pay that cost, but at least the team they are abandoning would be guaranteed a hefty return.


Baseball does this in somewhat the similar fashion. There really isn't a RFA in baseball besides the fact that baseball holds your rights until have 6 years of MLB service, but after that 6 years you can choose whomever you want. Now if you lose what the MLB considers a top player you get an extra pick in the upcoming draft, I believe it is typically in the first round compensatory selection, so after the first 30 picks you get a pick. I don't think the team forfeits a pick, but the team that loses the player does get a pretty high pick for not signing the guy. The Braves got one this year for Brian McCann. So maybe if you do sign one of these guys that are designated with value you give up your first round pick in some sort or fashion. I don't know how that would go over, but I don't think any team would care if they gave up a first round pick for Anthony Davis.
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Re: Wild Speculation and Predictions - Summer of 2016 

Post#28 » by TheKingofSting » Thu Jul 31, 2014 7:28 am

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