Dwight Howard Expected to Leave Houston, Charlotte A Favorite To Land Dwight

[JMAC3]

So who are realistic targets for Dwight this offseason?

Charlotte- Clifford ties, we have a clear cut need and he could be a top option.
Dallas- An early favorite, play next to Dirk and medically they seem to get the most of aging players.
Portland- Have money, but Mason Plumlee is playing really well and doesn't fit with its core.
Miami- If Whiteside leaves, they strike out on Durant, then maybe as a 3rd option.
Atlanta- If Horford leaves, he could finally go to Atlanta.
Boston- Rumor is no interest in Howard from Boston.
New Orleans- Davis is better at Center, and not enough money and playing time if they bring back Anderson.
Lakers- LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL
Indiana- Not sure what Indy is thinking, but they got rid of Hibbert and Dwight is similiar.
Chicago- Darkhorse if they let Gasol and Noah leave.

I would consider Dallas the early favorite, but I think we are a close second.

[SWedd523]

How long have we been saying that though? Let's just run down the red flags.

-on court personality clashes with multiple teams
-off court maturity issues
-continued back problems that limit his ability to stay on the floor
-hack a Dwight that prevents him from staying on the floor late
-already past the 30 year old mark
-pushing 35,000 NBA minutes
-last year's offensive production at the lowest point since his rookie year

I get the clamoring for a legit big. But Dwight isn't Orlando Dwight anymore. And he's going downhill

[yosemiteben]

I flip flop on Dwight. Folks know I'm bigger on Cody than most, but I'm pretty high long term on a starting core of Kemba - Batum - MKG - Frank, so I think center is really the position that is worth spending money on.

I think the off court and chemistry situation in CHA as opposed to LAL or HOU could not be more different, and I trust our coaching staff to connect with Dwight and get him in the right place mentally. I view Dwight a bit differently from Whiteside because Dwight has experience and has already made the mistakes and knows he only has so much time left, so I think he is in a more predictable position. We also don't really need a ton of offensive production from his position, so it's not that big of a deal if he only averages 14 - 16 ppg, but he definitely has a much more reliable post game than someone like Whiteside.

On the flip side, I totally see the red flags that SWedd mentions.

[chabber]

Forgot one. He refuses to run the P&R. Maybe Cliff could change that but until I hear it that is a huge on court issue to me even if you ignore all the other red flags.

[yosemiteben]

Forgot one. He refuses to run the P&R. Maybe Cliff could change that but until I hear it that is a huge on court issue to me even if you ignore all the other red flags.

Is there a quote about that or something? I'm not familiar enough with his history or his game, but seems strange to me if that is true.

[chabber]

Well Dantoni wanted hm to run it with Nash and they clashed cause he just wanted to work the post.

For facts I can't point you to anywhere really, only that I've heard it multiple times before from Justin Termine on NBA radio. He ran off a list of a few barely bench players who set more pics or ran more P&R than Dwight did this season. The numbers were astonishingly low. Off memory it was less than 100.

[yosemiteben]

Just looked up stats on it, looks like this season he ran the PNR as the roll man in HOU's offense only 9.3% of the time. Cody ran it 28.8% of the time for us. Stats for other guys:

DeAndre Jordan - 20.3%
Whiteside - 20.8%
Hibbert - 17.0%
Mozgov - 16.8%
JVal - 14.2%
Cousins - 14.8%
Drummond - 13.2%
Bogut - 9.7%
Zach Randolph - 9.7%

Interesting. Also, I don't get it. Does he have a problem with alley oops?

On the flip side, Big Al didn't run enough to even qualify for the stat, so I guess we could pitch that as the selling point if we wanted him. The question is are we willing to spend big on a C that sucks at the PNR, which is a major part of our offense.

[chabber]

Here is more from 1 year ago so its old and only shows % but it shows he posts up way more than he should as compared to P&R.



The problem is that he doesn't suck. He's awesome at it.

[chabber]

I was right, it was less than 100. He only had 91 possessions where he ended as the roll man on the season and scored at a 1.10 points per possession clip. That's a big drop from that img above from a year or so ago where he was at 1.31.

Here's some more data from to show you where Howard fits in P&R as compared to others across the league.

Possessions / Frequency Percentage / Points Per Possession.

Biyombo: 90 / 19.3% / 1.18
Howard: 91 / 9.3% / 1.10
Capela: 101 / 18.5% / 1.17
Thompson: 124 / 21% / 1.29
Kaminsky: 133 / 20.5% / 1.0
Cody: 175 / 28.8% / 1.22
Jordan: 181 / 20.3% / 1.40
Whiteside: 199 / 20.8% / 1.34
Favors: 226 / 22.1% / 1.11
Brook: 319 / 21.2% / .99
Davis: 352 / 24.7% / 1.06
Towns: 358 / 24.8 / .95

[yosemiteben]

Dwight all aboard the PR train: http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/15596878/dwight-howard-qa-superman-returns

Not sure that interview did him a lot of favors though. Some tidbits:

Spoiler:

ESPN: You mentioned your season in Houston didn't end the way you wanted. You have also admitted you were "disinterested" during parts of the year. Why was that?

Howard: "There were times I was disinterested because of situations that happened behind the scenes that really hurt me. It left me thinking, 'This is not what I signed up for.'''

ESPN: What specifically are you referring to?

Howard: "I felt like my role was being reduced. I went to [Rockets general manager] Daryl [Morey] and said, 'I want to be more involved.' Daryl said, 'No, we don't want you to be.' My response was, 'Why not? Why am I here?' It was shocking to me that it came from him instead of our coach. So I said to him, 'No disrespect to what you do, but you've never played the game. I've been in this game a long time. I know what it takes to be effective.'''

ESPN: Some of your teammates in Houston didn't appreciate your "disinterest.'' Any regrets on how you handled it?

Howard: "My friends kept telling me, 'Even if you aren't getting shots, there are so many other things you can control while you are on the floor.' And they were right. I allowed not getting the ball to affect me. That's on me. As a big, someone who has been the focal point of the team, who is still young, who still has some great years in front of me, you run the floor, you sprint as hard as you can, you duck in, and still, you don't get the ball. It brings you down. It sucks the energy out of you. I had long conversations with people close to me who said, 'Dwight, this is going to make you look bad. Don't keep doing this.' So I listened to them.''

ESPN: So what changes did you make?

Howard: "For the final few weeks of the season, I brought [former NBA big man] Clifford Ray in. He told me, 'Dwight, you never know what is going to happen, so you need to keep working, keep growing, be ready.' Cliff wanted me to get in better shape. He said, 'If you aren't getting touches, then get every offensive rebound and keep running the floor.' He was a positive light for me -- a great inspiration. Clifford got me on the phone with [former Celtics center] Robert Parish. Robert told me, 'Don't allow what other people do affect your performance. You have to be stronger mentally to overcome those situations.' Those two guys made me realize I need to get locked in with the mental part of the game.''

ESPN: You could have signed a new deal to stay with the Lakers. Why didn't you?

Howard: "I just felt like it wasn't a team. I wanted a team. There were things that went on during the season that made me feel like I wasn't a part of it, like the thing with Kobe and my shoulder. People were saying, 'Dwight's so strong, he's Superman, he should play through it.' It was a torn labrum. I should have had surgery, but I didn't. I came back instead. I'll never forget the game we played against the Celtics in Boston (on Feb. 7, 2013). I hadn't practiced for a while -- I had just been working on the treadmill. But I played in Boston. We got blown out. Coach (Mike D'Antoni) still had me in when we were down 30. After the game, I'm walking off the court and a Lakers fan throws his jersey and hits me in the face. It was my name on that jersey. I will never forget that the rest of my life."

ESPN: The Lakers were a major disappointment that season, but the front office still wanted you back?

Howard: "Yes, they did. I had a decent year. I put up good numbers. Mitch [Kupchak] wanted me to stay. Jeanie [Buss] wanted me to stay. But I didn't think it was a good fit. When they fired Mike Brown (after five games), they asked me what coach I wanted. I said, 'Phil [Jackson].' They said, 'Well, we don't know about Phil.' So they went out and got D'Antoni, and I'm thinking, 'Well I guess what I say doesn't matter.' That was one thing. The other was when I got ejected from our last game. Kobe was out (with a torn Achilles) by then. As I walked out to the back to the locker room, Kobe was walking in. People turned that into some kind of statement from Kobe, like he was saying, 'He may be gone, but I'm coming back.' Kobe and I never fought. But I didn't like hearing that I was running away from the 'bright lights.' I knew what it meant to play for the Lakers and I wasn't afraid of it. But I was a free agent and I was looking at Houston, who had James, and, at that time Chandler [Parsons] and Jeremy [Lin] and I thought, 'This might be better for me.''

ESPN: How much do you think you are worth? Do you still think you are a "max" player?

Howard: "This will be my last chance for a really big contract. If I am utilized the right way, I know what I can do for a team, a city, a franchise. I know my worth, and I will bust my butt this summer to show my worth to everyone.''

[Braggins]

I can't really blame Dwight for quitting on Houston. I'm not saying it is correct to act that way, but if I had to play on a team with James Harden I would do the same thing. I get disinterested real quick when forced to play bad basketball and deal with **** teammates who won't pass or play defense.

[LofJ]

We'd have to let Marvin and Lin go to give Dwight the money he wants. It doesnt sound like he's willing to sign at a discount at all. And with all the baggage he brings I don't want to take that big of a hit to our depth.

[JDR720]

We'd have to let Marvin and Lin go to give Dwight the money he wants. It doesnt sound like he's willing to sign at a discount at all. And with all the baggage he brings I don't want to take that big of a hit to our depth.

Im not sure why people thought he would take a discount anyway, he is going to get a max from someone. of the 3 max contract centers he is the only one that has ever done anything and by far has the best resume.

[yosemiteben]

Im not sure why people thought he would take a discount anyway, he is going to get a max from someone. of the 3 max contract centers he is the only one that has ever done anything and by far has the best resume.

Well he also is the oldest, has the most injury issues, and has a long legacy of chemistry issues (Whiteside has them too, just not as long or high profile a legacy). His max is $32.2M per year, so almost $10M per year more than Whiteside's and $5M per year more than Horford's.

I will be shocked if anyone pays Dwight a max.

[JDR720]

Im not sure why people thought he would take a discount anyway, he is going to get a max from someone. of the 3 max contract centers he is the only one that has ever done anything and by far has the best resume.

Well he also is the oldest, has the most injury issues, and has a long legacy of chemistry issues (Whiteside has them too, just not as long or high profile a legacy). His max is $32.2M per year, so almost $10M per year more than Whiteside's and $5M per year more than Horford's.

I will be shocked if anyone pays Dwight a max.

he will get paid the equal to a max, not necessarily his max. 22-26 million probably.

[amcoolio]

That interview screams "please let me come to Charlotte" to me. He'd have to only take 25mil or less for that to happen, or maybe a sign and trade?

[Braggins]

Yeah, i'm not interested in paying Dwight over 20 mil. I dont even know if I'd be interested in him at 20. 15-18 or no thanks. Hes just not that productive anymore.

[euphorbus]

Yeah, I'm not interested in paying Dwight over 20 mil. I don't even know if I'd be interested in him at 20. 15-18 or no thanks. He's just not that productive anymore.

It is interesting that one of the reasons for his decline in production, according to yesterday's interview, was that the offense in Houston was designed to maximize Harden and minimize Howard. You can see how well that worked out. Charlotte would place Howard in the slot where Al Jefferson played the last two years, and at the beginning of this season. Only he has far better defense than Jefferson.

I like Cody Zeller a lot--this was a breakout season for him--but he is not a man you can rely on as a linchpin of your defense, despite his improvements. A three-year pay package of $18-20 million would be fair and also offer the opportunity to play for a coach whom he likes. I can easily foresee a big role in the four-out offense for Dwight Howard.

[catsfan]

I put the probability at slightly above zero, but I wonder if Howard would sign a 1 and 1 with a 2nd year opt out for 25 mil. Try to cash in on the increase next year

[Braggins]

Yeah, I'm not interested in paying Dwight over 20 mil. I don't even know if I'd be interested in him at 20. 15-18 or no thanks. He's just not that productive anymore.

It is interesting that one of the reasons for his decline in production, according to yesterday's interview, was that the offense in Houston was designed to maximize Harden and minimize Howard. You can see how well that worked out. Charlotte would place Howard in the slot where Al Jefferson played the last two years, and at the beginning of this season. Only he has far better defense than Jefferson.

I like Cody Zeller a lot--this was a breakout season for him--but he is not a man you can rely on as a linchpin of your defense, despite his improvements. A three-year pay package of $18-20 million would be fair and also offer the opportunity to play for a coach whom he likes. I can easily foresee a big role in the four-out offense for Dwight Howard.

Good points. If it really came down to it, id probably do 3/60. Id prefer to have a team option on the 3rd year, but that probably isnt in the cards.