538 player and team projections

[JDR720]

538 published their player and team projections.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-nba-player-projections/miles-bridges/

can type in a player and see theirs.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-nba-predictions/hornets/

team projection.

I think the player projections are a bit off, but most of our guys dont have much of a sample size.

[LofJ]

The only players with a positive offensive projection are Monk and Graham, lol.

Monk needs to start if we want our offense to not be completely hideous. And MKG should get Batum's minutes to cover for Monk and the other guys. Batum should get DNP-coaches decision as much as possible, he shouldn't see the court most nights.

Rozier
Monk
MKG
Bridges
Zeller

With Bacon, PJ, and Graham the 1st players off the bench. Trade Marvin for an asset and glue Batum to the bench.

[316Hornets]

Eh, these projections are kind of off in my opinion. They seem to just be based on the player's past and aren't accounting for the loss of Kemba and Rozier taking on the starting role.

[Hornet Mania]

538's methodology never works for sports prediction, the site is a joke on that front. 538 us a great example of how being great in one discipline (extremely accurate political polling, at least in 2012) does not necessarily make you great at all sorts of other disciplines.

The player comps for Miles are the sort of junk you could only get from dumping data into a spreadsheet and then accepting the results uncritically. Oubre and Derozan are so much like Sabonis and Vlad Rad amirite? Somehow the player most comparable to MKG is....Marvin Williams. So the guy whose career has been totally hampered by his inability to shoot is most comparable to a stretch-four shooting specialist. Right.

Honestly the fact their projection gives us a better than 1/20 shot of making the playoffs is strong evidence it's worthless.

In any case you don't need to crunch too many numbers to realize our team will probably be struggling to win games this year.