Too Early 2021-22 Salary Cap Watch

[yosemiteben]

Since we've been talking a bit about salaries and the offseason, I figured I'd start a thread so we can figure out our options and where we sit. Here is Spotrac's snapshot of our current cap situation this summer: https://www.spotrac.com/nba/charlotte-hornets/cap/2021/

We have $83M in committed cap (Martins and McDaniels are on unguaranteed deals and can be waived to create an additional $5M in cap space), and the projected salary cap is $112M, so effectively if we waived all cap holds but kept all our non-guaranteed deals we'd have $30M in space.

Malik and Devonte have the only interesting cap holds. Malik's is $13M, Devonte's is $2M, so $15M total. We thus have $15M in cap space to play with this summer without having to waive Malik or Devonte.

We know we are interested in signing a center. Cody's cap hold is $23M, so we almost certainly will renounce his bird rights and cap hold. I am curious what deal he'll get this summer, but seems unlikely we'll keep him unless he is willing to sign for the room exception ($5M per).

The most logical strategy for this summer seems to be waive Cody, sign FA center into cap space, sign Monk and Graham, then sign a second string big to the room exception. It'll be really interesting to see if the FO holds on to the Martins or McDaniels this summer.

Ball - Rozier - Hayward - PJ - FA C
Graham - Monk - McDaniels - Bridges - FA C

Deep Bench: Martins x 2, Carey, Richards, Riller?, Darling?

[Braggins]

Wasn't Devonte's cap hold bumped up to 4 mil because he hit a certain criteria based on number of games started?

Does the 83 million number included empty roster spot cap holds and the cap hold for our 1st round pick? Its been a minute since I calculated myself.

[yosemiteben]

Wasn't Devonte's cap hold bumped up to 4 mil because he hit a certain criteria based on number of games started?

Does the 83 million number included empty roster spot cap holds and the cap hold for our 1st round pick? Its been a minute since I calculated myself.

Not sure about Devonte, pulled the number from Spotrac and typically they're on it so I assume they got it right. Maybe not though.

Spotrac does include the empty roster spot cap holds (just under $2M total), but I left those out when I say Monk and Graham were the only cap holds.

So really we only have about $13M in cap space, taking into account cap holds for Monk, Graham, and 2 empty spots (only 12 count).

Sure wish we could have dumped Batum for space somewhere, would be really nice to have $22M to play with rather than $13M. We really aren't going to be able to benefit from that cap space in summer of 2022 if we give Monk and Graham good size deals.

[Braggins]

Sure wish we could have dumped Batum for space somewhere, would be really nice to have $22M to play with rather than $13M. We really aren't going to be able to benefit from that cap space in summer of 2022 if we give Monk and Graham good size deals.

Ya, I never understood the people claiming that the Batum stretch didn't matter and that the 9 million in dead money wasn't going to potentially squeeze us.

[Braggins]

https://www.yardbarker.com/nba/articles/devonte_graham_meets_starter_criteria_increases_qo_value/s1_14822_33915869

As a result of meeting the starter criteria, Graham’s qualifying offer in restricted free agency will now be worth $4,736,102 instead of $2,079,826. While he’s more likely to negotiate a multiyear deal, he could accept the one-year QO if he doesn’t like any offers on the table and/or wants to reach unrestricted free agency in 2022.

Heres the thing I was referring to with Devonte. I'm not sure if that has any effect on his cap hold, but when I initially read this when it was first reported I just assumed it did because his previous qualifying offer before meeting the starter criteria seemed to be the same amount as his 2 million'ish cap hold.

[Roll Tide 09]

I wouldn't mind trying to keep the whole team...outside of Washington, and maybe Graham, if a beneficial trade presents itself. However, I do believe that we should seek an alternative for the Martins. They're not a good fit here.

Zeller seems to be doing fine coming off the bench.

Both Washington and Graham could net us a 1st round pick each and a solid role player.
Both Martins could net us a 2nd round pick...maybe two, if packaged together.

Depending on the details, this would also help free up cap space...I would assume. I don't know too much about the salary cap rules.

[yosemiteben]

I expect to lose Cody this summer. His cap hold is like $23M, so we'll almost certainly release that and lose his bird rights. I also can't imagine we'll want to use cap space to resign him, so unless he is good to play for the room exception ($5M) in one of his last significant contracts, he's probably out of here. Not sure what the market will look like for him though.

[James Gatz]

Some places list Monk's cap hold at 16 mil including Nate Duncan's sheet which is pretty thoroughly updated. Basically we have to decide if we want to add a starting level 5 with cap space/without Monk or keep Monk and only have MLE to sign someone like Green, Thesis Kanter (plz no), etc.

Graham - 4.7
Monk - 16
2021 16th Pick - 2.7

We'd basically only have a few million of cap space if we waive some of the unguaranteed contracts. Which gives us a few options in terms of adding to the roster.

1) Operate as an over the cap team
-Allows us to resign Graham/Monk and even Zeller if we wanted
-Allows us to keep Jalen, Martins
-Gives us access to MLE
-Does not give us the ammo to sign a starting 5

2) Let Monk walk and open up space
-Allows us to sign a big like Holmes
-Jalen, Martin tbd depending on price of free agent center
- Room exception for someone like Zeller

3) Let Graham Walk
- Opens a little space. Maybe enough to get a starting 5 if we waive Jalen, Martins
- Seems like the worst option


https://imgur.com/a/eD6Yv0N

[JDR720]

I have the view that Monk and Graham are expendable.

You can find volume-scoring guards, they're probably the most common type of player.

I'd let Cody walk too, he is probably going to get 10-12 million per year. I don't think that is too much for him, but he is hurt too much and we have a few young centers on the roster to replace him (Richards, Carey). McDaniels coming out of nowhere make me more confident that Richards or Carey can do the same. Mitch is good at drafting.

[bravor]

The ideal on the paper would be to make good unexpensive/bets and develop some youngsters in the frontcourt (defensive minded obviously) without locking anyone on stupid long term contracts.
Ball's extension talk will be in 3 years from now, and Hayward's contract (+Batum dead money) will be gone by that time. It is still critical to have a secondary option - in the frontcourt.. - that match Lamelo's age (and keep flexibility to overpay for one in case Kupchak messes up with the future mid/late 1st picks many are happy with).
And not messing up 2nd rounders as well (Tillman was a true facepalm move by Kupchak, and not just because of the current circumstances).

Something that has to be kept in mind is that if Charlotte wants to compete from now, their picks wont look as good for potential trade partners. And as it has been said eslewhere, this team is not loaded with trade assets, especially if some gets ridiculous extensions.

Next two years salary cap are not necessary a big issue. I do hope some lessons from Kemba's team have been learnt (team s interest>players willing to keep teamates at any cost) . But having flexibility in 2024/2025 is critical imho. Even if there is a new cba and a new (big) tv contract moving forward in 2024 (or earlier).

Player wise, i know i would try to keep Monk on a 'Lamb' like contract (as someone said in some previous post) considering all the issues he had here.

[Chapelchilla]

I would let Monk go to sign a good big (like Holmes or Allen) but not to overpay for a guy like Drummond.
between Rozier, Hayward, Ball and Graham plus our 1st rounder this year we would have enough backcourt flexibility to go with the Bridges/PJ/Hayward/FA/FA/Carey/Richards frontcourt.

[BlackOutBuzz]

If they decide to keep Monk, they can almost certainly get him for less than his cap hold. Expect that to be one of the first *official* moves *if* they decide to keep him.

It probably makes the most sense to move on from basically all of our free agents, though hopefully they'll be able to leverage Monk and Graham's status as RFAs into other assets (and not just cash FFS).

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[yosemiteben]

Have been giving our cap situation more thought, specifically from the perspective of last season. This coming summer was always going to be a huge one for us with all our young guys. I think we had to know we'd want to keep at least one of Miles or Monk and then we'd have PJ, which meant that after we used cap space this summer we'd likely be an above the cap team going forward for the foreseeable future unless we both didn't want to keep our own guys and we let Terry walk.

I think that shines a light on how much we felt we needed Hayward - he was our marquee FA signing to the point that we were ok with him costing us $40M in cap space in the last summer where we expected to have any significant cap space.

I do wonder what our plan is for the C position going forward. It appears that Biz is only on the roster because we lost the C shell game last summer, and Cody's minutes and usage suggest we don't exactly place a lot of value on him. Next year is a new ball game for this franchise - we are officially out of development mode and in playoff chase mode. If we cut both Biz and Cody this summer, are we comfortable only spending $10-12M on a starting C or calling PJ a small ball C? In such an important season, are we comfortable relying on someone like Vern to be a necessary part of our C rotation?

[yosemiteben]

It probably makes the most sense to move on from basically all of our free agents, though hopefully they'll be able to leverage Monk and Graham's status as RFAs into other assets (and not just cash FFS).

I figured they'd almost certainly keep Graham, given his dirt cheap cap hold. I expect us to go over the cap this summer, so what's the rush to move on from him?

[BlackOutBuzz]

It probably makes the most sense to move on from basically all of our free agents, though hopefully they'll be able to leverage Monk and Graham's status as RFAs into other assets (and not just cash FFS).

I figured they'd almost certainly keep Graham, given his dirt cheap cap hold. I expect us to go over the cap this summer, so what's the rush to move on from him?

I just suspect that some team will offer him starter money, and it wouldn't necessarily make sense for the team to match that type of offer for a guy that projects to be a sixth man.

I wouldn't hate it if they did match - and then try to move him later - but after the Kemba debacle I don't have much faith in them taking that route.

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[Braggins]

I still think the franchise would be in a much better position if they didn't sign Hayward.

I think they should look to keep Monk and maybe trade Rozier. Terry has won me over, but he doesn't quite fit the timeline and with Hayward already on the books for so much I really don't want to put ourselves in a position where they feel they have to pay Terry 25+ mil on his next contract or lose him for nothing. Monks offensive production is virtually identical and hes younger/cheaper.

Graham Id like to try to get cheap. I don't really want to pay him much, but I also don't like losing value for nothing, so as long as they feel they can move his contract down the line for any kind of asset I'd understand keeping him. A sign and trade scenario might be the best option.

I would operate as though the plan is to keep Miles and PJ, but not get locked into any plan and play it by ear.

As for the center position, I think its going to have to be solved via the draft, MLE (I also assume they will operate over the cap), and potentially developing Vern.

[Roll Tide 09]

Hayward was a good faith signing for the fans. It made it appear that the franchise wanted to win now although Hayward is definitely NOT the reason for all the winning. I say sign who we can, especially Monk, and then maybe put Graham, Hayward, and Washington on the trading block to gauge the value. They're not scrubs and could probably net us two all-stars, along with a couple of serviceable pieces/projects with a first round draft pick included. All I know is that the clock has already started to tick for us to show Ball that we care about winning...championships.