Fried Chicken and Bonghits: The Al Jefferson Thread 2.0

Snidely FC · Post #121 » by **Snidely FC** » Wed Jan 28, 2015 11:23 pm

Coming off the recent win streak, seeing some funny parallels to Linsanity, with Al Jeff in the Carmelo Anthony role. Kemba didn't get the press Jeremy Lin did, of course, because Kemba didn't rise out of obscurity, but some of the dynamics of having to choose between ball-sharing role players vs. iso heavy stars are striking to me.

One aspect of LInsanity was that Melo went out injured in Lin's first start. The Knicks turned into a ball-moving 3 pt shooting wonder. Guys like Steve Novak and Landry Fields looked like world beaters. The team won!

But Melo came back from injury and the team was faced with a decision. Do they stick with the new ball sharing style of play led by Lin and proponent Mike D'Antoni, or do they resort to the iso heavy offense featuring Melo?

The Knicks dumped D'Antoni in favor of Mike Woodson, who gave Melo full iso reign. They had to go with Melo, he was their marquee star, right?

Shortly thereafter, Lin (like Kemba just did) tore the meniscus in his knee and the excitement was dead and buried, consigned to history as "Linsanity."

The recent win streak by the Hornets with Al out injured, featuring guys sharing the ball, Biz flying all over the place on D, Kemba shooting lights out, was so damn fun to watch. And they were winning!

Some will argue the streak came against weak competition. We'll never know, because with the schedule about to get harder, Kemba tore his knee and Biz hurt his knee. Al came back - and really, what choice does the team have but to feature him now?

What a roller coaster ride this season has been to be a Hornets fan. Turgid, depressing start followed by fun winning streak snuffed out by injury. Now there just seems uncertainty. With Big Al looming at its center, forcing the team to play one way.

Post #122 » by **yosemiteben** » Fri Jan 30, 2015 9:12 pm

Was reading a review of Okafor's game over on DraftExpress and came across this, which I thought was interesting:

Not so much interesting for Okafor, but more as a side by side comparison of Al with other centers based on SportVU data.

mrknowitall215 · Post #123 » by **mrknowitall215** » Fri Jan 30, 2015 9:22 pm

yosemiteben wrote:Was reading a review of Okafor's game over on DraftExpress and came across this, which I thought was interesting:

Not so much interesting for Okafor, but more as a side by side comparison of Al with other centers based on SportVU data.

Reading that tell me that Enes Kanter learned too much from Al Jefferson during his short stay in Utah. Also, it tells me that Jefferson get a lot of post touches, like a lot

Post #124 » by **yosemiteben** » Fri Jan 30, 2015 10:11 pm

He gets a lot of post touches, but he actually doesn't get very many paint touches compared to Vucevic, Gasol and Duncan. That might have to do with his willingness to set up shop outside the lane.

Vucevic's paint FG% is pretty awesome.

mrknowitall215 · Post #125 » by **mrknowitall215** » Fri Jan 30, 2015 10:16 pm

yosemiteben wrote:He gets a lot of post touches, but he actually doesn't get very many paint touches compared to Vucevic, Gasol and Duncan. That might have to do with his willingness to set up shop outside the lane.

That's because Jefferson is usually too lethargic/lazy to fight for deep post positioning. It often appears as if Jefferson refrain from contact. That's ironic for a player that is notoriously a post player, also when you throw in the fact that he doesn't get to the foul line much either

Post #126 » by **yosemiteben** » Fri Jan 30, 2015 10:18 pm

mrknowitall215 wrote:
yosemiteben wrote:He gets a lot of post touches, but he actually doesn't get very many paint touches compared to Vucevic, Gasol and Duncan. That might have to do with his willingness to set up shop outside the lane.

Vucevic's paint FG% is pretty awesome.

That's because Jefferson is usually too lethargic/lazy to fight for post positioning. It often appears as if Jefferson refrain from contact. That's ironic for a player that is notoriously a post player, also when you throw in the fact that he doesn't get to the foul line much either

I think that's oversimplifying things. He also likes to operate in space because he can't use his footwork in the paint where it's crowded.

mrknowitall215 · Post #127 » by **mrknowitall215** » Fri Jan 30, 2015 10:27 pm

yosemiteben wrote:
mrknowitall215 wrote:
yosemiteben wrote:He gets a lot of post touches, but he actually doesn't get very many paint touches compared to Vucevic, Gasol and Duncan. That might have to do with his willingness to set up shop outside the lane.

Vucevic's paint FG% is pretty awesome.

That's because Jefferson is usually too lethargic/lazy to fight for post positioning. It often appears as if Jefferson refrain from contact. That's ironic for a player that is notoriously a post player, also when you throw in the fact that he doesn't get to the foul line much either

I think that's oversimplifying things. He also likes to operate in space because he can't use his footwork in the paint where it's crowded.

I stand firm in my belief towards that being why Jefferson doesn't get as many paint touches as the others listed without it being oversimplified. Yes, Jefferson usually & casually operate in space because it's easier to get positioning away from the paint

Post #128 » by **yosemiteben** » Mon Feb 2, 2015 7:12 pm

In the three games since Kemba has been out Al has averaged a tad fewer FGAs than his average on the season despite playing roughly the same number of minutes. I for one am really surprised at that, I expected him to try to take it upon himself to try to ratchet up his attempts and to dominate the ball to give us some sort of offensive identity.

I think it's apparent that Al has learned that he needs to share the ball more given the dynamic of this team, and I think it is also apparent that Clifford has adapted the offense accordingly. We have used Al to force doubles but he has not come close to dominating the flow of our offense. When we have fed him the ball in the post, he has generally been decisive and either started his move or passed the ball around and reset.

It's possible that the low attempts is a result of teams fronting and doubling him, but that's not really anything new and in the past I would have expected him to demand the ball and for us to force feed it to him. It really looks like the offense has changed a bit.

Braggins · Post #129 » by **Braggins** » Sat Feb 7, 2015 5:14 am

I really appreciate how Jefferson has adjusted his game recently. I didn't know if we'd see that with him playing here. His post game has looked atrocious (by his standards) lately and he desperately needs to lose 20-30 pounds but I don't even mind these slightly crappy offensive games hes been having because he isn't forcing hardly any awful shots and is moving the ball more than we've ever seen him. He even seems to be playing his best defense of the year despite still being noticeably hobbled.

Post #130 » by **fatlever** » Sat Feb 7, 2015 6:54 am

a few more good games from Al and maybe we can re-name his thread to something a little more flattering.

Liver_Pooty · Post #131 » by **Liver_Pooty** » Wed Feb 25, 2015 2:09 am

Catch posted this on the Playoffs thread, and Ill repost it here for the mere fact that Amin whatever his last name is wont attempt to spell it stated at the end that he is basically almost completely sure that Jefferson will opt out.

http://stationcaster.com/player_skinned ... &f=4044483

catch20two · Post #132 » by **catch20two** » Wed Feb 25, 2015 2:18 am

Big Al ain't no fool. He ain't gonna opt out. That let me know that Amin don't know sh*t about our team or players but that Big Al was All-NBA last year. There was barely a market for him to make the 13.5M we paid him when he was still in his 20s. Now Al is in his 30s, out of shape, and injuries are creeping back on him. No way a team pay him more than 13.5M.

Liver_Pooty · Post #133 » by **Liver_Pooty** » Wed Feb 25, 2015 2:19 am

catch20two wrote:Big Al ain't no fool. He ain't gonna opt out. That let me know that Amin don't know sh*t about our team or players but that Big Al was All-NBA last year. There was barely a market for him to make the 13.5M we paid him when he was still in his 20s. Now Al is in his 30s, out of shape, and injuries are creeping back on him. No way a team pay him more than 13.5M.

I doubt a team pays him that much, but instead of taking the one year at 13.5 and getting another year older I think he takes his last long term contract. Something like 11/44 or 12/36.

Edit: Scratch that 4 year deal. I agree that a team will offer him 12/36 though. And he will take it unless he is stupid.

catch20two · Post #134 » by **catch20two** » Wed Feb 25, 2015 2:20 am

Liver_Pooty wrote:
catch20two wrote:Big Al ain't no fool. He ain't gonna opt out. That let me know that Amin don't know sh*t about our team or players but that Big Al was All-NBA last year. There was barely a market for him to make the 13.5M we paid him when he was still in his 20s. Now Al is in his 30s, out of shape, and injuries are creeping back on him. No way a team pay him more than 13.5M.

I doubt a team pays him that much, but instead of taking the one year at 13.5 and getting another year older I think he takes his last long term contract. Something like 11/44 or 12/36.

I can't even imagine a team paying him for more than 2 years over 10M.

Braggins · Post #135 » by **Braggins** » Wed Feb 25, 2015 2:29 am

Hes probably worth 5-8 mil/year, but he will probably get 10-12. I hope we aren't the team paying him next year regardless but its probably happening.

Liver_Pooty · Post #136 » by **Liver_Pooty** » Wed Feb 25, 2015 2:30 am

Braggins wrote:Hes probably worth 5-8 mil/year, but he will probably get 10-12. I hope we aren't the team paying him next year regardless but its probably happening.

Lol 5 a year is kind of low don't you think?

catch20two · Post #137 » by **catch20two** » Wed Feb 25, 2015 2:33 am

Big Al is at that stage where a team might offer him 2yrs/20M or 3yrs/28M but I don't see nobody offering him more than that unless he has a crazy hot streak at the end of this year to help get us into the playoffs.

Liver_Pooty · Post #138 » by **Liver_Pooty** » Wed Feb 25, 2015 2:34 am

catch20two wrote:Big Al is at that stage where a team might offer him 2yrs/20M or 3yrs/28M but I don't see nobody offering him more than that unless he has a crazy hot streak at the end of this year to help get us into the playoffs.

I could definitely see a 3 year deal for 30 million from someone like the Suns dying for a low post presence.

Braggins · Post #139 » by **Braggins** » Wed Feb 25, 2015 2:36 am

Liver_Pooty wrote:
Braggins wrote:Hes probably worth 5-8 mil/year, but he will probably get 10-12. I hope we aren't the team paying him next year regardless but its probably happening.

Lol 5 a year is kind of low don't you think?

Maybe with the cap increase. Hes been pretty bad and is injury prone and still not really in shape. He could continue to regress very quickly.

catch20two · Post #140 » by **catch20two** » Wed Feb 25, 2015 2:36 am

Liver_Pooty wrote:
catch20two wrote:Big Al is at that stage where a team might offer him 2yrs/20M or 3yrs/28M but I don't see nobody offering him more than that unless he has a crazy hot streak at the end of this year to help get us into the playoffs.

I could definitely see a 3 year deal for 30 million from someone like the Suns dying for a low post presence.

They would regret it. And still won't make the playoffs in the West. Whatever team sign Al to that type of deal better have a starting PF that can protect the rim.