Prospect Thread: Deni Avdija

[DY_nasty]

A1 post. I like Deni, but not enough to write speculative fiction about him.

It really feels like you have to try to miss the point like this.

Yes he shot almost 60% inside the arc, but he also made a total of 15 two point field goals in 26 games played. I have a tough time using that data set and concluding that he'll be a valuable NBA scorer.

It feels like you make me repeat points because you nitpick data used to reinforce them.

I mean, yeah - I critique the data you cited to evidence your conclusions and substantiate your opinion. That's pretty much how one analyzes opinions about prospects.

Here's my primary sample set: I've stated clearly Deni shot 66.5% from the floor, including threes, as an 18-19 year old in Israel Premier facing tougher competition Gordon Hayward did in NCAA Horizon Conference. Avdija started playing pro at 16.

I'm not convinced that the competition Deni faced in the Israeli league was better than what Hayward faced in the NCAA, particularly in the NCAA tournament. I actually haven't seen you cite anything to the contrary, other than pointing out that Deni had NBA players on his own team.

Look at the list of MVPs from that league (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli_Basketball_Premier_League_MVP), the only one I've ever heard of is PJ Tucker back in 2007-08.

Look at the list of Finals MVPs (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli_Basketball_Premier_League_Finals_MVP) - 37 year old washed up Amare Stoudemire who has been out of the NBA for 5 season won it this past season. In the last 10 years the only other guy I recognize is Pat Calathes.

I've never heard of any winner of the DPOY in that league (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli_Basketball_Premier_League_Defensive_Player_of_the_Year)

Look at the scoring leaders in the league (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli_Basketball_Premier_League_Statistical_Leaders). It's guys that couldn't stay on an NBA roster (Glen Rice Jr., James Young) and a bunch of guys that have never made it to the NBA.

Look at the "Discovery of the Year" award (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli_Basketball_Premier_League_Discovery_of_the_Year) - never heard of any of these guys.

Look at the top 5 players each year of the past 10 years (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli_Basketball_Premier_League_Quintet#2019%E2%80%9320). How many of these guys sniffed an NBA rotation?

Obviously we have different degrees to which we attribute value to Deni's performance in this league. That's fine, I have not even attempted to criticize your opinion of Deni or say that it is indefensible to want him. I'm just saying that I'm not as convinced by the data set, particularly since you have to emphasize his performance against what appears to me to be inferior competition.

We're obviously looking at different data. You're looking at FT% and forgetting everything else.

Like the 3PT and FG stats in Euroleague that we've been talking about? Or the Israeli stats that I've acknowledged?

I'm looking at his most recent full season shooting 66.5% from the floor Israel Premier reinforced by a smaller sample of him shooting 59% from inside the arc Euroleague.

Using the Euroleague data seems cherrypicked to the point of absurdity. You choose to look past both his terrible 3PT% and his terrible FT%, but do look at the fact that he shot 60% in the 15 total two point field goals he made over 26 games.

I'm making a big deal out of his Euroleague stats because the fact that he had such a dramatically negative performance in Euroleague vs. his Israeli league performance is what makes me particularly nervous about banking on him with a top lotto pick.

But look, I get that maybe his coach didn't like him for basketball politics reasons, or didn't play him the right away, or hell it's just a tough league and maybe he just was having a hard time in his personal life or something. I get that **** happens, and the fact that he barely contributed in Euroleague doesn't mean he won't be a good NBA player. But it definitely is a red flag for me.

[MasterIchiro]

How can it be cherry-picking if I present the largest (and recent) sample of his three point shooting and field goal percentage? 35% and 66.5% on high volume. Then I reinforce it with a smaller sample 59% within the arc vs. Euroleague competition.

And you point singularly to the small sample in Euroleague at his three point shooting yet dismiss his 59% within the arc in that same league as a small sample?

Seems like you're doing the cherry-picking to reinforce his poor FT% because you absolutely refuse to concede the point that most weight should be placed on his actual FG% in projecting his ability to score the ball and extend his range. No matter which way you slice it his FG% is 66.5 from a full season Israel Premier and 59% within the arc in Euroleague.

He's not going to be a primary scorer. But he has a damn good chance to be a secondary scorer and secondary playmaker. Plus defend.

[yosemiteben]

How can it be cherry-picking if I present the largest (and recent) sample of his three point shooting and field goal percentage? 35% and 66.5% on high volume. Then I reinforce it with a smaller sample 59% within the arc vs. Euroleague competition.

And you point singularly to the small sample in Euroleague at his three point shooting yet dismiss his 59% within the arc in that same league as a small sample?

Seems like you're on tilt a bit here. I obviously have not singularly pointed to his three point shooting, I'm only talking about his free throw shooting and looking at nothing else, remember?

From my perspective the primary difference between us is the weight we're attributing to Israeli league play vs. Euroleague play. I am genuinely curious if you still think Deni faced better competition after looking at those links I posted about Israeli league award winners.

Seems like you're doing the cherry-picking to reinforce his poor FT% because you absolutely refuse to concede the point that most weight should be placed on his actual FG% in projecting his ability to score the ball and extend his range. No matter which way you slice it his FG% is 66.5 from a full season Israel Premier and 59% within the arc in Euroleague.

I don't get why you think I'm hung up on FT%, I've talked about a lot more than that. I think more weight should be placed on his Euroleague play, because that was the better competition. Coincidentally, that was where he was pretty much unable to contribute.

You seem to disagree and think his Israeli league play should carry more weight, which is fine. I actually know very little about that league, maybe it's actually fill of ballers.

But let's not act like making a single two point FG every other game in one league is an indicator of reliable scoring potential when combined with completely different performance in another league. I get that you're grouping them together and taking the average. I'm saying that doesn't work for me because the sample in Euroleague is so small because he did so little.

He's not going to be a primary scorer. But he has a damn good chance to be a secondary scorer and secondary playmaker. Plus defend.

Great, maybe you're right. I don't think it's impossible, but for me their are too many red flags to feel good about the pick right now.

[arusinov]

From my perspective the primary difference between us is the weight we're attributing to Israeli league play vs. Euroleague play. I am genuinely curious if you still think Deni faced better competition after looking at those links I posted about Israeli league award winners.

This list of links was very long... but how to say it... very not insightful

How about this list: Adrien Moerman, D. J. Cooper, Zachery Peacock, David Holston.. and there's also Devin Booker - not the one born in 1996 but rather one born in 1991. How well do you know them? Those are last 5 recipients of French LNB-A MVP awards... And most specialists rank LNB-A as top-5 league outside NBA. People which win MVP of professional leagues in Europe are usually guys which are in their prime (25 - 30), in many cases played several seasons in this specific league, and very productive in those specific conditions - it has nothing to do with their (typically unexisting) NBA potential.

Also it's kind of disappointing that you claimed to know only PJ Tucker name... Is it because PJ Tucker literally played two weeks ago? ...Because there're quite several names which casual American fans not familiar with European basketball may know: Anthony Parker after that I-BSL MVP year played 6 seasons in Toronto and Cleveland, Šarūnas Jasikevičius was not success in NBA (he was one of best Euroleague offensive players... horrible on D) but still played 3 seasons there, looking a bit more than 10 years in list of finals MVP: Will Bynum played 6 seasons in Detroit, Carlos Arroyo played for 9 seasons in different teams in NBA. There are also several top Euroleague players in those lists...

Sure there're no NBA stars in their prime in I-BSL, but it's kind of expected... Truth to be said: their aren't in other leagues in Europe too. The story of Amar'e finals MVP is not about him being dominant in I-BSL. He was signed by Maccabi as a replacement for injured Tarik Black and it was done for only one reason: Stoudemire is Israeli citizen, and limitations on number of foreign players signed and used in each game aren't relevant for him. He was signed as a reserve big man off bench, and it was precisely his role as he averaged ~8 ppg, 4 rpg, 1.5 ast and 0.2 blk... but in the final game when both stars (Wilbekin and well.. Deni) stumbled Amar'e recalled old days and led team with season best 18 pts.

When people speak about Bender which "came from Maccabi / I-BSL too"... they don't know that Bender was basically unplayable in I-BSL - even his averages of 5.6 / 2.7 / 0.8 sound better than reality as he also was totally clueless defender. And by the way Joe Ingles averaged for Maccabi in I-BSL 7 / 3 / 3 in regular season and just 3 / 3/ 1.5 in playoffs.

Comparing with G-League. One well known NBA bust Joe Alexander averaged 21.7 / 8.0 in G-League in 2014-15 when Maccabi signed him as replacement for injured player... He averaged 8.6 / 4.4 in I-BSL and was out of rotation in playoffs.

There're some good teams in NCAA... maybe 20 - 25 teams which aren't worse than average I-BSL team (I don't think there's one comparable to this year Maccabi Tel Aviv) but they are distributed so sparsely even in best conferences.... I followed a bit several Israeli players (or players with Israeli citizenship which can play for Israeli NT e.g. TJ Leaf) in NCAA - level of most teams they played against was miserable. One of those guys - one Egor Kulechov scored 18.2 ppg on 47 3p% for mid-major Rice, transferred to Florida and had there 13.8 ppg on 39.5% 3P... Last year he played for below average I-BSL Ironi Nahariya - 8.4 ppg, 34.3% 3P

[Pistol King]

-Regarding of the discussion about the MVP winners in the Israeli league, any comparison to other names is irrelevant once you figure out Deni is the youngest ever to achieve MVP there. Winning this award as a 25-30 year old and winning it as a 19 years old is a different story. Winning it in a top tier team like Maccabi is twice as impressive IMO.

- Although Amar'e was the Final game MVP, it was only a 1 game. It's not like he dominated the league, he averaged 8ppg in the Israeli league the entire year. Just for the sake of proportion, he was only the 11'th best scorer in Maccabi this year (tied with the 10'th best, Zoosman). Where Deni was the leading scorer.

- Regarding Deni's future shooting projection, I think most people who are worried just didn't watch his full games. I would be worried as well if I was evaluating him just through the stat sheet. The reason I was never really worried was because when you watch his full games you notice he has the two most important tools for a successful shooting career: a good touch and a good form with a fluid motion. He's a very streaky shooter right now, and even in the Euroleague where people make of it like he was kind of bad, he was around 35% from 3pt until the last 4 games when he fell into a shooting slump, but he has a 59% true shooting the entire year (Euroleague and Israeli league included) and I don't find one reason from an eye test/shooting percentages trajectory view why wouldn't he become at least an average shooter if not more. BTW he worked on his shot during the pandemic break, and after the break he already shot 72% from FT (though in a small sample size of 12 games, it was in a higher amount of attempts).

[MasterIchiro]

How can it be cherry-picking if I present the largest (and recent) sample of his three point shooting and field goal percentage? 35% and 66.5% on high volume. Then I reinforce it with a smaller sample 59% within the arc vs. Euroleague competition.

And you point singularly to the small sample in Euroleague at his three point shooting yet dismiss his 59% within the arc in that same league as a small sample?

From my perspective the primary difference between us is the weight we're attributing to Israeli league play vs. Euroleague play. I am genuinely curious if you still think Deni faced better competition after looking at those links I posted about Israeli league award winners.

I think more weight should be placed on his Euroleague play, because that was the better competition. Coincidentally, that was where he was pretty much unable to contribute.

Yes we seem to disagree on the weight of his full season with Israel Premier league. For me sample size factors into weight. Deni shot 113/170 or 66.5% in his age 18-19 season in Tel Aviv. Genuinely I have his competition as superior to ACC because I factor in age and because of the experience that comes with it. I assign weight to NBA experience. He might not have faced kids with upside but he also didn't feast on kids without upside or kids with upside who still make stupid mistakes, blow assignments and need 2-3 years to learn fundamentals in the NBA. The fact Avdija played with 6 players with NBA experience and some with multiple years of NBA experience reinforces his 66.5% for me. His Macabbi team ultimately won the Euroleague tournament. They would absolutely thrash the SEC and ACC teams, not because they have young players like Deni with upside and not because the SEC and ACC lack future NBA stars but because of experience, knowing how to play the game right. When Avdija arrives he will make adjustments because of his experience playing as a pro amongst professional grown men since he was 16. I value that history, enormously.

Euroleague is a smaller sample and a transition sample, an in-between of Israel Premier and NBA. I think we should expect some drop but over time see Deni adjust. He did win tournament MVP and was the youngest player ever to do it.

Furthermore, what Deni did in Euroleague he'd likely outperform in the inferior NCAA. So what's his floor game look like this smaller sample that you weigh more heavily than I do? 59.6% on field goals.

So here I've combined the larger sample in the inferior league I weight more heavily with the smaller one in the superior league you weigh more heavily to demonstrate that Deni can shoot the ball despite his struggles at the FT line and from 3 in Euroleague.

We can both look at the FT% as an indicator of future outcomes or both his FT% across leagues and 3PT% across leagues as predictors, lumping both small and large samples and pause when projecting his progression.

But what about his improvement from start to finish when we look at the full breadth of his professional career? At 16 he road the bench as a pro. At 18-19 he won Euroleague tournament MVP.

I predict he will extend this improvement and continue to progress at the next level. He will have an adjustment period but I don't think he will struggle at basic things like even the top rookies do aside from FT%.

[MasterIchiro]

Comparing with G-League. One well known NBA bust Joe Alexander averaged 21.7 / 8.0 in G-League in 2014-15 when Maccabi signed him as replacement for injured player... He averaged 8.6 / 4.4 in I-BSL and was out of rotation in playoffs.

Holy ****!

[Braggins]

From my perspective the primary difference between us is the weight we're attributing to Israeli league play vs. Euroleague play. I am genuinely curious if you still think Deni faced better competition after looking at those links I posted about Israeli league award winners.

This list of links was very long... but how to say it... very not insightful

How about this list: Adrien Moerman, D. J. Cooper, Zachery Peacock, David Holston.. and there's also Devin Booker - not the one born in 1996 but rather one born in 1991. How well do you know them? Those are last 5 recipients of French LNB-A MVP awards... And most specialists rank LNB-A as top-5 league outside NBA. People which win MVP of professional leagues in Europe are usually guys which are in their prime (25 - 30), in many cases played several seasons in this specific league, and very productive in those specific conditions - it has nothing to do with their (typically unexisting) NBA potential.

Also it's kind of disappointing that you claimed to know only PJ Tucker name... Is it because PJ Tucker literally played two weeks ago? ...Because there're quite several names which casual American fans not familiar with European basketball may know: Anthony Parker after that I-BSL MVP year played 6 seasons in Toronto and Cleveland, Šarūnas Jasikevičius was not success in NBA (he was one of best Euroleague offensive players... horrible on D) but still played 3 seasons there, looking a bit more than 10 years in list of finals MVP: Will Bynum played 6 seasons in Detroit, Carlos Arroyo played for 9 seasons in different teams in NBA. There are also several top Euroleague players in those lists...

Sure there're no NBA stars in their prime in I-BSL, but it's kind of expected... Truth to be said: their aren't in other leagues in Europe too. The story of Amar'e finals MVP is not about him being dominant in I-BSL. He was signed by Maccabi as a replacement for injured Tarik Black and it was done for only one reason: Stoudemire is Israeli citizen, and limitations on number of foreign players signed and used in each game aren't relevant for him. He was signed as a reserve big man off bench, and it was precisely his role as he averaged ~8 ppg, 4 rpg, 1.5 ast and 0.2 blk... but in the final game when both stars (Wilbekin and well.. Deni) stumbled Amar'e recalled old days and led team with season best 18 pts.

When people speak about Bender which "came from Maccabi / I-BSL too"... they don't know that Bender was basically unplayable in I-BSL - even his averages of 5.6 / 2.7 / 0.8 sound better than reality as he also was totally clueless defender. And by the way Joe Ingles averaged for Maccabi in I-BSL 7 / 3 / 3 in regular season and just 3 / 3/ 1.5 in playoffs.

Comparing with G-League. One well known NBA bust Joe Alexander averaged 21.7 / 8.0 in G-League in 2014-15 when Maccabi signed him as replacement for injured player... He averaged 8.6 / 4.4 in I-BSL and was out of rotation in playoffs.

There're some good teams in NCAA... maybe 20 - 25 teams which aren't worse than average I-BSL team (I don't think there's one comparable to this year Maccabi Tel Aviv) but they are distributed so sparsely even in best conferences.... I followed a bit several Israeli players (or players with Israeli citizenship which can play for Israeli NT e.g. TJ Leaf) in NCAA - level of most teams they played against was miserable. One of those guys - one Egor Kulechov scored 18.2 ppg on 47 3p% for mid-major Rice, transferred to Florida and had there 13.8 ppg on 39.5% 3P... Last year he played for below average I-BSL Ironi Nahariya - 8.4 ppg, 34.3% 3P

Whats your opinion of Israeli Premier league vs Australian NBL?

[MasterIchiro]

- Regarding Deni's future shooting projection, I think most people who are worried just didn't watch his full games. I would be worried as well if I was evaluating him just through the stat sheet. The reason I was never really worried was because when you watch his full games you notice he has the two most important tools for a successful shooting career: a good touch and a good form with a fluid motion.

The more I watch him on film the more I notice how he leverages his body, space, teammates, pace, motion and speed differential to score the ball or stage a successful possession. I get the feeling that even when he's off, he makes winning plays that don't appear in the box score. Like Gordon Hayward, I think his teammates will love playing with him. I have his ceiling at Gordon Hayward age 26 season where he averaged 21.9 points, hit from everywhere, rebounded, defended and made plays for teammates. That Gordon Hayward if he stayed healthy is a clear #2 option on an elite team. It's unfortunate we're picking 3 and can't find that #1 option from this particular draft but selecting Avdija doesn't eliminate future drafts and trades where we may find that player. At any rate, Avdija passes the eye test for me. And I feel what makes Kupchak a legit GM is that he uses eye test in addition to stat sheets. Therefore he has a much deeper understanding of the game than his predecessor Dick Cho.

[amcoolio]

We don't need another secondary/tertiary scorer. We are loaded with those already. He's perfect for GS, who will be taking him if they can't trade out.

[MasterIchiro]

We don't need another secondary/tertiary scorer. We are loaded with those already. He's perfect for GS, who will be taking him if they can't trade out.

Avdija is a secondary scorer on a good team. On the Hornets he could become a primary scorer while we start pushing for the fringe of the playoffs again.

We finished last in offense. We need all the primary, secondary and tertiary scoring on the board.

[wilson115]

Jan 15, 2010

On the offensive end, despite a decrease in three-point shooting percentage this season (45% to 36%, on just 78 attempts), Hayward's bread and butter is still his outside shot, boasting a high and quick release with range to the NBA three-point line. Hayward's shot is incredibly smooth, and one of the most impressive aspects of his shooting is his excellent body control and shot selection, as he almost always squares his shoulders and gets his feet underneath him before taking a shot, leading to very few bad misses. He's not a great shot creator off the dribble, however, even though he looks very comfortable pulling up in space.

Attacking the basket, Hayward doesn't have much in terms of advanced ball-handling, rarely changing directions with the ball, but he can handle it comfortably on straight-line drives with either hand, and his ability to take the ball to the basket or throw off a runner in the lane allows him to still score efficiently around the basket. A deceptively good athlete, Hayward has outstanding coordination and body control, while also showing off pretty good explosiveness when he gets his legs under him. He likewise has a solid first step, and is very crafty maneuvering through the lane and finding open spaces, getting to the free throw line at a pretty high rate.

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/gordon-hayward-5514/ ©DraftExpress

JUL. 5, 2017

Hayward is one of the more organic scorers in the NBA and doesn’t need to dominate the ball to make an impact. His 27.6 percent usage rate was one of the lowest among players who managed 20 points per game last season. And despite being Utah’s primary option, his usage didn’t increase much in clutch situations (28 percent). This pattern is much different from that of Thomas, whose usage skyrocketed to 46 percent in the clutch from 34 percent in general.

Hayward gets his offense in other ways.

The 27-year-old also gets to the line frequently. Hayward, like many other NBA guards, has nearly perfected the art of drawing fouls as a jump shooter (he drew calls 19 percent of the time when the defender tried to go over his screen in pick-and-rolls, which is the NBA’s 11th-highest mark, according to Synergy5). He’s gotten far better at finishing through contact, not only shooting 69 percent at the rim, but also finishing the season with more and-1s than shots rejected. To give that context, consider that only three other wing players showed a similar ability to hit and-1s more than they got blocked, per Basketball-Reference.com: Kevin Durant, Kawhi Leonard and LeBron.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/gordon-hayward-is-exactly-what-the-celtics-needed/

AUG 24, 2020

His foul-drawing hasn’t yet translated to the pros, though. Avdija had a 42.9% free throw rate in the 2019 U20 European Championship but a lousy 28.9% free throw rate with Maccabi last season, one of the 20 lowest marks on ESPN’s top 100.

Shooting

More concerning is how he has struggled from the foul line for years, casting doubt over whether he even has the touch in place for a jump-shot to be built upon. According to our stats database, between all of his appearances with Maccabi and the Israeli National Team, both at the junior level and in the pros, Avdija has shot just 58% on 402 free throws over the last three years.

https://basketball.realgm.com/analysis/259303/Prospect-Report-Deni-Avdija-Of-Maccabi-Tel-Aviv

[MasterIchiro]

No surprise the teens in the Horizon Conference fouled Hayward and that it's harder to draw fouls from older players with NBA plus college experience playing in pro leagues.

At any rate, a beat writer for the Warriors reported the Warriors flew to Israel multiple times to see Avdija and league sources say the Warriors are targeting him.

Not to change the subject but since there's no guarantee Avdija will be there at 3, that means Edwards or Ball falls. Either one is a win for the Hornets. I don't love Ball but I could see him as a trade candidate.

[yosemiteben]

Safe to say Dean on Draft is not big on Deni: https://deanondraft.com/2020/09/28/how-good-is-deni-avdija/

[Soul Rebel]

Safe to say Dean on Draft is not big on Deni: https://deanondraft.com/2020/09/28/how-good-is-deni-avdija/

Wow, he called him a 2nd round talent. Yikes!

Obviously, everything is taken with a grain of salt.

I also didn't realize how small his wingspan is. I know his athleticism is passable, but not great. Combine that with short "T-Rex" arms and there's more concern.

[DY_nasty]

Safe to say Dean on Draft is not big on Deni: https://deanondraft.com/2020/09/28/how-good-is-deni-avdija/

I always thought the Casspi comparison wasn't that far off as well

[amcoolio]

Safe to say Dean on Draft is not big on Deni: https://deanondraft.com/2020/09/28/how-good-is-deni-avdija/

Yikes

[Hornet Mania]

Adding Deni to my 'abandon all hope' list along with Ball and Toppin.

[JMAC3]

He strikes me as the guy in this draft who falls until 8 and then everybody after a year is saying “he is 6-9, can pass and shoot!! He is the definition for current NBA basketball”.


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[Vanderbilt_Grad]

I still have no idea what to make of Deni. I see some stuff I like and then get bust vibes. Just no idea.