Draft lottery night thread

[KembaWalker]

Goodbye to all of the posters leaving. I hope the threat turns out this time.

If you noticed, we’ve lost a lot of quality posters over the years, and for very valid reasons…I don’t get cheering on the further destruction of this board and fanbase

I also left for years. You can just stop following, you don’t have to make a reactionary announcement that then makes everything else you write less credible bc you’re the poster that quit the team but kept coming back for abuse.

Posters better than the ones that announce they are leaving have left. They just stopped posting. It’s totally reasonable to do. Threatening to leave multiple times and never doing it is something different.

[EmpireFalls]

The NBA has created a permanent underclass and they are now laughing at us. Being a Charlotte Hornets fan is to be a sucker. They’re trying to push us to see how far we can go before giving up

I hate feeling like this

[Walt Cronkite]

This is probably a little bit off but I roughly guaged the probability of these three events happening at 1.8%, 13% and 31% chances respectively. An online calculator gives events of those probabilities happening at the same time a chance of 0.07254%

This definitely isn't the exact odds but should be roughly in the ballpark.

Mavs-Spurs-Sixers was 1:10,000 odds according to Hollinger.

[dmutombo321]

Having some clown in a suit from Ernst & Young who is supposed to have vetted the lotto ball selection behind closed doors to ensure there's no funny business going on doesn't go very far to instill confidence that there's legitimacy to the process.

If the NBA really wanted transparency without sacrificing the whole envelope opening bit for dramatic appeal, they would enact a system whereby each team sends two representatives. One representative from each team would be present to watch live an hour earlier in a back room when the lottery balls are counted, inserted into the hopper and selected. They would then be sequestered until the envelopes are walked out for the reveal with the other rep for each team on stage..

Sent from my motorola edge (2021) using RealGM mobile app

[SteveMorrison15]

Time and Money.

Ideally you work from 9-5pm and the game starts at 7. If you have tickets (cost) it could be a rush to get to the game, park (money), eat (more money), etc. Games over, leave, get home a little after 10pm then work in the morning.
or
You get home from work, make dinner, watch game by 7pm.
or
Hornets are on a road trip and you have to stay up to 10:30 and beyond to catch the game. Time.

League pass cost money. Buying a new jersey because the guy split for greener pasture cost money and buying a new hat that's not covered in sweat stains cost money.

I don't blame anyone for wanting to boycott the NBA or this message board. It's your time, money, and your life. Stay away from stress is the name of the game. It's not feeling sorry for yourself and if it is, blame the league. They promote this league and the playoffs "I don't want to miss a thing" and want you to watch it and enjoy it (give them more money) and they spit on small market teams. Where's your motivation?

A glASS backwards trade for Luka to LA and the fan base calls for the dudes head and they throw that Duke kid at them? I don't have any care anymore for stuff like this. I have zero faith a rookie can come into any league and change it immediately. But if defense is a lost art then possibly. Maybe the kid blows his knee out and AD and Kyrie fall to another injury...then we'll see what they will do. I can't dwell on such sinister thoughts but I do have them from time to time.

If this draft lottery has you leaving the NBA as a fan then I hope you find something better or things get better in your life. It's okay to feel this way because the real danger would be NOT feeling anything at all.

God bless Iron Man and God bless America

[KembaWalker]

the guys on Penn and Tellers show rig up more complex and convincing tricks than that goofy ping pong ball machine for a trophy and the notoriety of being on a single episode of a TV show nobody watches on a TV network nobody watches. when billions are on the line, there isnt much they wont do

[Rich4114]

This is probably a little bit off but I roughly guaged the probability of these three events happening at 1.8%, 13% and 31% chances respectively. An online calculator gives events of those probabilities happening at the same time a chance of 0.07254%

This definitely isn't the exact odds but should be roughly in the ballpark.

Mavs-Spurs-Sixers was 1:10,000 odds according to Hollinger.

I don't buy that. That type of **** came up in my tankathon runs almost every 3 tries

[Walt Cronkite]

I try to avoid math as long as possible as a personal rule, just sharing what I read since LucianoDW ran some figures last night in the moment.

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6352464/2025/05/13/nba-draft-lottery-trades-mavericks-spurs-sixers-giannis-flagg/
"So much for the idea of Cooper Flagg going to a 20-win team. Instead, a statistically improbable Dallas Mavericks-San Antonio Spurs-Philadelphia 76ers-Charlotte Hornets top four upended all our previous assumptions about what might happen in the lead-up to the NBA Draft. The odds of the Mavs and Spurs landing 1-2 were 1 in 1,000; the Mavs-Spurs-Sixers combo in the top three was 1 in 10,000."

[Rich4114]

Listen, if elections can be rigged then so can the NBA draft lottery. And even if it's not, the new system is helping bad teams stay bad and good teams get better. If Adam Silver actually wants parity, then a new system is needed. How about letting lottery teams have more cap flexibility, the worse your record the more you get. How about using weighted lottery odds over multiple years so a team that was just in the finals doesn't win the best prospect and he instead goes to a team that hasn't had anything to root for in 10 years?

[Walt Cronkite]

The current system doesn't seem to be working to improve bad teams, I'm not sure anyone is arguing it is. Last night's result was "statistically improbable" but not impossible. I would like to avoid reading political takes on this board if possible based on how bad some of the sporting takes are, but I guess yea, if you can rig an election, you can rig a sports draft.

[Rich4114]

The current system doesn't seem to be working to improve bad teams, I'm not sure anyone is arguing it is. Last night's result was "statistically improbable" but not impossible. I would like to avoid reading political takes on this board if possible based on how bad some of the sporting takes are, but I guess yea, if you can rig an election, you can rig a sports draft.

We'll never prove it to be the case and it doesn't really matter. The NBA needs to figure out how to create more parity if they truly want that. But I suspect they really just want to make sure the Lakers and Celtics are always in contention and the rest is just whatever.

[Walt Cronkite]

I thought it was funny all of the sports entertainment accusations, because as far as I know, I'm the sole board pro wrestling mark (especially if uncnyc is gone). In rasslin, a predetermined form of entertainment often at it's best when it is presented close to legitimate sport(strong style, king's road, Pride FC), stuff goes wrong all the time, plans change all the time, and a lot of the people involved fall over themselves to leak information detrimental to their best interest to the journalists and "journalists" following the developments. The term "going into business for themselves" exists and is prominent.

The fraternity of NBA adjacent individuals is larger than pro wrestlers anyone wants to hear from, nothing credible is ever leaked to a journalist? No one is doing the digging? What's going on, where is there any proof? If it's rigged, let's help someone expose it, I'll do what I can to help.

[Walt Cronkite]

the guys on Penn and Tellers show rig up more complex and convincing tricks than that goofy ping pong ball machine for a trophy and the notoriety of being on a single episode of a TV show nobody watches on a TV network nobody watches. when billions are on the line, there isnt much they wont do

You might enjoy s3e3 from their earlier show https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0672525/

[Bassman]

So the lottery drawing process was filmed with the media witnesses in place. You can see it in the YouTube link below. Would appear to be nearly impossible to rig. Supposedly the 4 number combinations were assigned to every team ahead of time. But all you get is the 4 numbers sucked up from the mixer and announced, followed by some woman off camera saying “DALLAS”. This is done for the first four positions, then it’s over.

[url]

Watch on YouTube

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[JDR720]

Yeah... there's no way this wasn't rigged. I mean come on...

[JDR720]

If just one of the Mavs/Spurs/76ers moved up... that'd be one thing.

But all 3 of them moving up, and all 3 of them having compelling league incentives to move up...

I mean, if that isn't rigged, then it's one hell of a coincidence. It's like Cleveland getting #1 when LeBron left and the Pelicans getting #1 after AD left.

The best way to get #1 overall seems to not be to be bad, but lose your star player.

[Rich4114]

If just one of the Mavs/Spurs/76ers moved up... that'd be one thing.

But all 3 of them moving up, and all 3 of them having compelling league incentives to move up...

I mean, if that isn't rigged, then it's one hell of a coincidence. It's like Cleveland getting #1 when LeBron left and the Pelicans getting #1 after AD left.

The best way to get #1 overall seems to not be to be bad, but lose your star player.

TWO GM's jobs and reps were saved by the lottery last night. I don't find that to be a coincidence.

[yosemiteben]

Again, why is the NBA rigging the lottery in favor of small market San Antonio again?

[JDR720]

If just one of the Mavs/Spurs/76ers moved up... that'd be one thing.

But all 3 of them moving up, and all 3 of them having compelling league incentives to move up...

I mean, if that isn't rigged, then it's one hell of a coincidence. It's like Cleveland getting #1 when LeBron left and the Pelicans getting #1 after AD left.

The best way to get #1 overall seems to not be to be bad, but lose your star player.

TWO GM's jobs and reps were saved by the lottery last night. I don't find that to be a coincidence.

I don't think saving GM"s job's is an inventive.

It's the Dallas fans rioting (figurately) when they gave Luka away. And the 76ers fanbase being depressed because Embiid is screwed. The league is incentivized to make these larger fanbases happy.


And to top it off, the Spurs continue to be gifted at getting good draft position over... and over again. The small-market darling of the league for whatever reason.

[JDR720]

Again, why is the NBA rigging the lottery in favor of small market San Antonio again?

Beyond the market size, and even the Spurs specifically, the lottery continually ends up resulting in certain things happening for decades. And these things are pretty much always leans towards league inventive or are compensating teams that have lost superstar players.

LeBron being drafted by his hometown team. And when he leaves, they get #1 overall 3 times.

AD being drafted by the Pelicans after they lost CP3. And when AD left, they get #1 again.

Rose being drafted by his hometown team of Chicago.

Mavs losing Luka and getting Flagg.

76ers losing Embiid and moving way up.

And the Spurs are just league darlings. They've not been in the lottery much, but when they are, it pretty much always works out for them. They're now in the drivers seat, probably, if they wanted to trade for Giannis. Giannis + Wemby is great for the league.