2023 NBA Draft Thread

[JDR720]

The only player available that is worth #2 is Brown.

[Liver_Pooty]

The only player available that is worth #2 is Brown.

He's also going to get the super max for being all nba. That's a lot of coin.

[Liver_Pooty]

I would trade the 2 right now for Anthony Edwards in a nanosecond. Timberwolves would laugh however.

[KingCat]

The antisemite support might put some bias in my mind on him, but I'm just not feeling Brown, especially during this Heat series

[JMAC3]

Yeah, Edwards has 30 lbs on Scoot and he is much better outside shooter. Edwards would be a pretty easy yes for the #2 pick.

[dmutombo321]

Trade the 2:
Jokic
Giannis
Luka
Wembanyama
Embiid
Curry
Booker
Tatum
Brown
Durant
Butler
SGA
Garland
Mobley
Bancharo
Haliburton
Edwards
Mikal
Bam
Jalen Williams
Franz Wagner (he's got a long career of 23/5/5 and solid defense ahead of him, like a bigger, more intense Gordon Hayward, I really wanted this guy man)
Zion (50/50 on this one)
Cade Cunningham (cutoff, I think he and LaMelo would be very intriguing)


Tough Omissions:
KAT (I honestly think we aren't that much better with him or without him, his defense is that bad)
Morant (we just can't)
Giddey
JJJ (would rather gamble)
Mitchell
Barnes (Need to see more, I would rather gamble)
Sharpe
Maxey
Brunson
Fox (Don't think he works with LaMelo)
Kawhi (Would freak out if not in LA)
George (Too injured)
Lauri (We would get ridiculed)
Sabonis (Ditto)
Siakam, Jrue, LeBron, AD - too old

Mostly I would gamble on Scoot/Miller taking us to the next level, even though most of the players above could be better

Aside from Durant and Curry who I'd add to the "Too Old" exclusion list due to not fitting our timeline, we're in pretty close lockstep.

I would also go so far as to send out Ball from most if not all of those players. And then just keep the #2 and draft Scoot to replace him.

Sent from my motorola edge (2021) using RealGM mobile app

[BeesWax]

Yeah, Edwards has 30 lbs on Scoot and he is much better outside shooter. Edwards would be a pretty easy yes for the #2 pick.

Edwards shot 29% from 3 in college. His college percents were 40/29/77 to Scoot at 43/27/76 so the shooting isn't a ton different. I would trade the #2 for Edwards right now though. It will be interesting to see how these guys develop over the next few years. In the right spots both have potential to really blow up.

[SWedd523]

Yeah, Edwards has 30 lbs on Scoot and he is much better outside shooter. Edwards would be a pretty easy yes for the #2 pick.

Edwards shot 29% from 3 in college. His college percents were 40/29/77 to Scoot at 43/27/76 so the shooting isn't a ton different. I would trade the #2 for Edwards right now though. It will be interesting to see how these guys develop over the next few years. In the right spots both have potential to really blow up.

It's not just pure numbers, you also have to consider volume/willingness

[BeesWax]

Yeah, Edwards has 30 lbs on Scoot and he is much better outside shooter. Edwards would be a pretty easy yes for the #2 pick.

Edwards shot 29% from 3 in college. His college percents were 40/29/77 to Scoot at 43/27/76 so the shooting isn't a ton different. I would trade the #2 for Edwards right now though. It will be interesting to see how these guys develop over the next few years. In the right spots both have potential to really blow up.

It's not just pure numbers, you also have to consider volume/willingness

There is that but if you can get to the rim and are not shooting well then shouldn't you attack the rim and take less threes? Do you want a bad average chucker? Is it that Scoot won't shoot or chose not to because he could attack? Did he pass on wide open threes ofter? I never saw that but if he did that would raise some concerns in the Simmons mold.

[SWedd523]

To reiterate the point: their percentages were close but one did it on much higher volume so they need to be taken with a grain of salt. It's entirely plausible that had Scoot shot as much, his numbers would've dropped, which means it's not as simple as saying "the shooting isn't a ton different"

[BeesWax]

To reiterate the point: their percentages were close but one did it on much higher volume so they need to be taken with a grain of salt. It's entirely plausible that had Scoot shot as much, his numbers would've dropped, which means it's not as simple as saying "the shooting isn't a ton different"

It could have also gone up. Maybe is Scoot shot more he would have gotten hot more often but he didn't see the need to shoot more. Maybe most of Edwards shots were wide open and he still missed 70% of them. We can do maybes all day long but without the film to back it up we don't know exactly what happened. The worry isn't the number of shot he took but the types of shots he decided not to take. If he passed up open looks that is a lot worse than choosing not to jack up a defended shot.

[SWedd523]

... While it's certainly possible his percentage could go up on higher volume, that goes against just about all conventional wisdom and statistical probability

[BeesWax]

Actually the statistical probability would be based off the current percentages and types of shots he was shooting. With his lower numbers if he was caught with the ball in his hands as a shot clock was counting down those chucks would hurt his stats more than if he had taken some earlier in the clock. Really to know any of the stats we need far more variables that what we have available here. Context of the numbers is as important as the actual numbers themselves to get the true story they tell.

Either way Edwards was willing to chuck up shots but wasn't a good shooter by any means and has improved quite a bit the question here becomes will Scoot put in the work to improve his results. His form is solid and he should be able to develop a lot over the next few years if he is willing to work.

[yosemiteben]

To reiterate the point: their percentages were close but one did it on much higher volume so they need to be taken with a grain of salt. It's entirely plausible that had Scoot shot as much, his numbers would've dropped, which means it's not as simple as saying "the shooting isn't a ton different"

I think it's a fair point comparing him to Ant. A massive difference for me though is that Scoot was an 18 year old figuring out how to be the PG and primary distributor for a professional team and shot just 16% of his team's FGAs, whereas Ant was in college, played next to a PG, and shot 27% of his team's FGAs.

Ant was much more about hunting his shot generally against inferior talent, whereas Scoot had PG responsibilities, shot less generally, and was playing against superior talent.

[SWedd523]

To reiterate the point: their percentages were close but one did it on much higher volume so they need to be taken with a grain of salt. It's entirely plausible that had Scoot shot as much, his numbers would've dropped, which means it's not as simple as saying "the shooting isn't a ton different"

I think it's a fair point comparing him to Ant. A massive difference for me though is that Scoot was an 18 year old figuring out how to be the PG and primary distributor for a professional team and shot just 16% of his team's FGAs, whereas Ant was in college, played next to a PG, and shot 27% of his team's FGAs.

Ant was much more about hunting his shot generally against inferior talent, whereas Scoot had PG responsibilities, shot less generally, and was playing against superior talent.

You say it's a fair point and then immediately counter it by laying out why they're completely different situations

[JMAC3]

Edwards shot 29% from 3 in college. His college percents were 40/29/77 to Scoot at 43/27/76 so the shooting isn't a ton different. I would trade the #2 for Edwards right now though. It will be interesting to see how these guys develop over the next few years. In the right spots both have potential to really blow up.

It's not just pure numbers, you also have to consider volume/willingness

There is that but if you can get to the rim and are not shooting well then shouldn't you attack the rim and take less threes? Do you want a bad average chucker? Is it that Scoot won't shoot or chose not to because he could attack? Did he pass on wide open threes ofter? I never saw that but if he did that would raise some concerns in the Simmons mold.

The three is the most valuable shot in basketball, if he could of been taking and making more at a higher percentage, he would have been doing it. To assume he wasn't comfortable or confident is a much more realistic assumption then he could have but just chose not to. Again Scoot team went 11-21, I don't think he was really in the position to just coast because the rest of his scoring was just too easy.

But yes, volume matters a ton.
The guy who shots 10 attempts per game at 37% vs the guy who shots 2 but makes 41% is way more valuable shooter.

I will take a list, who are the guys who shot under 3 threes per game in the last 5-7 years that turned into really great outside shooters in NBA?

[JMAC3]

It's not just pure numbers, you also have to consider volume/willingness

There is that but if you can get to the rim and are not shooting well then shouldn't you attack the rim and take less threes? Do you want a bad average chucker? Is it that Scoot won't shoot or chose not to because he could attack? Did he pass on wide open threes ofter? I never saw that but if he did that would raise some concerns in the Simmons mold.

The three is the most valuable shot in basketball, if he could of been taking and making more at a higher percentage, he would have been doing it. To assume he wasn't comfortable or confident is a much more realistic assumption then he could have but just chose not to. Again Scoot team went 11-21, I don't think he was really in the position to just coast because the rest of his scoring was just too easy.

But yes, volume matters a ton.
The guy who shots 10 attempts per game at 37% vs the guy who shots 2 but makes 41% is way more valuable shooter.

I will take a list, who are the guys who shot under 3 threes per game in the last 5-7 years that turned into really great outside shooters in NBA?

Just feels like that would be a lot more helpful then trying to sell me on he will become a good shooter because he knows Curry now or because Ant improved so can he.

[BeesWax]

There is that but if you can get to the rim and are not shooting well then shouldn't you attack the rim and take less threes? Do you want a bad average chucker? Is it that Scoot won't shoot or chose not to because he could attack? Did he pass on wide open threes ofter? I never saw that but if he did that would raise some concerns in the Simmons mold.

The three is the most valuable shot in basketball, if he could of been taking and making more at a higher percentage, he would have been doing it. To assume he wasn't comfortable or confident is a much more realistic assumption then he could have but just chose not to. Again Scoot team went 11-21, I don't think he was really in the position to just coast because the rest of his scoring was just too easy.

But yes, volume matters a ton.
The guy who shots 10 attempts per game at 37% vs the guy who shots 2 but makes 41% is way more valuable shooter.

I will take a list, who are the guys who shot under 3 threes per game in the last 5-7 years that turned into really great outside shooters in NBA?

Just feels like that would be a lot more helpful then trying to sell me on he will become a good shooter because he knows Curry now or because Ant improved so can he.

The argument is that he was only hitting at 27% so he chose to do what he does well which is attack the basket. I feel like he will improve because he seems very competitive and like he wants to prove he should go first and he isn't even in that conversation. His shot isn't broken and he is already working with the right people. He made a large leap the last season so why wouldn't he make another since he is doing everything right.

[SWedd523]

Why not compare him to other guards from the G League? Or at least PGs from college?

Only two "guards" from the past 5 years drafted out of the G League


Dyson Daniels: 11/6/4 on 45/26/74 (3.6 3PA/G)
Jalen Green: 18/4/3 on 46/37/83 (5.7 3PA/G)
Scoot Henderson: 17/5/7 on 43/28/76 (2.7 3PA/G)

Daniels was picked 8th overall, Green 2nd overall, Scoot will likely be 2 or 3

<break>

Daniels rookie season: 4/3/2 on 41/31/65 in 18mpg (2.1 3PA/G)

per36 comes out to about the same, with less scoring, but that's not really his game. Shooting down big despite (I assume) moving into a largely support role with less defensive attention on him which (I assume) led to his 3P% going up some (on fewer attempts).

<break>

Green Rookie: 17/3/3 on 43/34/80 in 32mpg (6.8 3PA/G)
Green Sophomore: 22/4/4 on 42/34/79 in 34mpg (7.3 3PA/G)

He's definitely more of a gunner, so not super analogous, but his percentages are also down from his time in the G League and they actually got slightly worse in his 3rd year shooting from NBA range.


Both guys are obviously super early in their careers but neither case seems to help the argument that we should expect a jump in percentages.

[JMAC3]

The three is the most valuable shot in basketball, if he could of been taking and making more at a higher percentage, he would have been doing it. To assume he wasn't comfortable or confident is a much more realistic assumption then he could have but just chose not to. Again Scoot team went 11-21, I don't think he was really in the position to just coast because the rest of his scoring was just too easy.

But yes, volume matters a ton.
The guy who shots 10 attempts per game at 37% vs the guy who shots 2 but makes 41% is way more valuable shooter.

I will take a list, who are the guys who shot under 3 threes per game in the last 5-7 years that turned into really great outside shooters in NBA?

Just feels like that would be a lot more helpful then trying to sell me on he will become a good shooter because he knows Curry now or because Ant improved so can he.

The argument is that he was only hitting at 27% so he chose to do what he does well which is attack the basket. I feel like he will improve because he seems very competitive and like he wants to prove he should go first and he isn't even in that conversation. His shot isn't broken and he is already working with the right people. He made a large leap the last season so why wouldn't he make another since he is doing everything right.

His attempts per game went from 2.4 to 2.7. That is not a large leap.