Post#1487 » by EwingSweatsALot » Mon Oct 27, 2014 7:27 pm
I wouldn't expect MKG much over 11-12 ppg. If he gets to 30 mpg (which I doubt), then He might even get to 12.5, but I would say around 10-10.5 is what should be expected. This is even with improvements in all areas of his point scoring game.
I would expect his minutes and usage to go up, but not by much. We can see in preseason he is more confident in the offense and with his shot so I would expect him to shoot at least one more time because of that.
I would also expect him to shoot, just a little better in all areas of the field. He has gotten stronger so I can see him finishing better. The new shot should allow him to shoot better from all other areas (it really can't get any worse.
Projections based on 28 mpg. 3.8 minutes more than last year. I think he will be used more than last year in crunch time, but at the same time we are so deep at the wing, with scorers on the bench, that he will still be replaced.
Based on the 28 minutes I would say he shoots right around 8 times a game. Not much better inside 3 feet but some, say he shoots 32.2% from 3 feet to the 3 point line ( a couple percentage points better than last year). Not as high as people think, but he is going to shoot more MR shots this year and more than likely his driving % will suffer. Add in the fact he was unlucky getting to the line last year, so if he gets to the line at the average rate for a player of his style then he will shoot about 2.5 more FTs a game than last year. I expect him to shoot better at the line this year, but not quite as good as he did his rookie year. I think he can get to about 70% or so.
With all that factored in, I think he can get to about 11.5-11.8 points a game. His rebounding should go up as well, the more minutes will help, I don't think he gets much more than 6 rebounds this year. We are replacing Henderson in the lineup with Stephenson who is a terrific rebound stealer. Part of that is probably because Indiana just had Hibbert block out and let the rest get the boards, we won't do that with Al. MKGs assists should go up because of his confidence, usage and overall involvement in the offense.
Final Prediction
11.6 PPG/6.1 RPG/1.7 AST
Potential to top out at
12.4 PPG/6.7 RPG/2 AST
