Big Al's Paint: The Al Jefferson Thread

[BeesWax]

Since he we only won 5 when he was scoring 25 points against playoff teams all season yeah kind of empty. Then you count in one was a sub .500 Atlanta team and the Portland and Indy wins when they went through there struggles and it looks slightly worse.

I'll repeat myself...we were 16-6 to close out the season, with 8 wins coming against playoff teams, and Al averaged around 25 PPG and 14 RPG during that stretch. Can someone please explain to me how those are empty stats?

What exactly is the definition of "empty stats" we are using here?

Over April and March against the playoff teams we were 8-6 and he averaged 24 points in that stretch. During the wins he average 24.9 points and for the losses with was 22.3 ppg. So whether he scores or not does not seem to effect our winning vs good teams all that much. He always scores the key is what others do around him and how bad he gets burned on defense on any given night.

[yosemiteben]

Since he we only won 5 when he was scoring 25 points against playoff teams all season yeah kind of empty. Then you count in one was a sub .500 Atlanta team and the Portland and Indy wins when they went through there struggles and it looks slightly worse.

I'll repeat myself...we were 16-6 to close out the season, with 8 wins coming against playoff teams, and Al averaged around 25 PPG and 14 RPG during that stretch. Can someone please explain to me how those are empty stats?

What exactly is the definition of "empty stats" we are using here?

Over April and March against the playoff teams we were 8-6 and he averaged 24 points in that stretch. During the wins he average 24.9 points and for the losses with was 22.3 ppg. So whether he scores or not does not seem to effect our winning vs good teams all that much. He always scores the key is what others do around him and how bad he gets burned on defense on any given night.

Right, of course he needs others on the team to score. And I don't get why you attribute losses to him getting burned constantly. That's not typically how our games have gone down when we lose.

How are those empty stats again? What exactly needs to happen such that his stats won't be considered empty?

[BeesWax]

I'll repeat myself...we were 16-6 to close out the season, with 8 wins coming against playoff teams, and Al averaged around 25 PPG and 14 RPG during that stretch. Can someone please explain to me how those are empty stats?

What exactly is the definition of "empty stats" we are using here?

Over April and March against the playoff teams we were 8-6 and he averaged 24 points in that stretch. During the wins he average 24.9 points and for the losses with was 22.3 ppg. So whether he scores or not does not seem to effect our winning vs good teams all that much. He always scores the key is what others do around him and how bad he gets burned on defense on any given night.

Right, of course he needs others on the team to score. And I don't get why you attribute losses to him getting burned constantly. That's not typically how our games have gone down when we lose.

How are those empty stats again? What exactly needs to happen such that his stats won't be considered empty?

You mean the points where Kemba was picked at the top of the key and Al was planted in the lane and the PG shot and scored. We got torched that way more often this season than any one in the past. When we lose they exploit the fact that Al can't guard a chair. If you involve his man in the play you have the man advantage because Al is not helpful at all. I actually saw him pick Kemba off his man a few times as he got in the way on defense.

The stats are empty because it matters very little if you score 25 but account for 25 scored against you. We win when teams don't exploit Al and lose when they do. If he improves his mobility some this off season and works within the defensive system better we will be a better team next year because other teams won't just attack Al.

[Eoghan]

But you said we would win around 35 games if we had Biyombo starting. That would lose us our draft pick and not make the playoffs. That would be nightmarish

Nah, we would have stealth tanked to keep us under 35.

Thats all hypothetical. You and I both know we would have won 25 maybe 27 games with Biyombo starting, Then what? We get Aaron Gordon or something? Not exactly a game changer.

That is also hypothetical. All of this is hypothetical.

[yosemiteben]

You mean the points where Kemba was picked at the top of the key and Al was planted in the lane and the PG shot and scored. We got torched that way more often this season than any one in the past. When we lose they exploit the fact that Al can't guard a chair. If you involve his man in the play you have the man advantage because Al is not helpful at all. I actually saw him pick Kemba off his man a few times as he got in the way on defense.

Yep. How often did we lose games on PNRs? I'm curious because I honestly don't think that was the primary reason we lost games. When I have some free time I might go through game logs, then look at replays on NBA.com from shot charts and see what happened in end game situations. I don't recall losing many (any?) games in late game situations due to a break down off of a PNR. Maybe that's just confirmation bias, but it should be possible to objectively prove it one way or the others.

The stats are empty because it matters very little if you score 25 but account for 25 scored against you. We win when teams don't exploit Al and lose when they do. If he improves his mobility some this off season and works within the defensive system better we will be a better team next year because other teams won't just attack Al.

What do you make of this: http://www.82games.com/1314/1314CHA.HTM

Al is not the one who is costing us games.

[BeesWax]

[
What do you make of this: http://www.82games.com/1314/1314CHA.HTM

Al is not the one who is costing us games.

You mean the stats they use that only take into account what the player you are guarding scores against you. Those stats do not account for the number of times some other player scored because the team was scrambling to cover for Al deciding he was to lazy to make an effort to help on defense. Kemba gets picked by Al's center and instead of Al stepping up MKG crashes down to cover Kemba's man and then they kick the ball to the guy MKG is guarding and he hits a three. MKG gets the blame because he had to cover for our C laziness.

[BeesWax]

Yep. How often did we lose games on PNRs? I'm curious because I honestly don't think that was the primary reason we lost games. When I have some free time I might go through game logs, then look at replays on NBA.com from shot charts and see what happened in end game situations. I don't recall losing many (any?) games in late game situations due to a break down off of a PNR. Maybe that's just confirmation bias, but it should be possible to objectively prove it one way or the others.

So it only matters if it is the last points of the game and not the 20 other points over the course of a game that matters?

We did not lose every game on a last minute pick and roll but that does not mean we did not lose the game because we could not defend against it over the course of the entire game.

[yosemiteben]

What do you make of this: http://www.82games.com/1314/1314CHA.HTM

Al is not the one who is costing us games.

You mean the stats they use that only take into account what the player you are guarding scores against you. Those stats do not account for the number of times some other player scored because the team was scrambling to cover for Al deciding he was to lazy to make an effort to help on defense.

Um...no, the stats that show the difference in your team's performance when you're on the court vs. when you're off of it. It literally shows the exact opposite of what you just said.

[yosemiteben]

Yep. How often did we lose games on PNRs? I'm curious because I honestly don't think that was the primary reason we lost games. When I have some free time I might go through game logs, then look at replays on NBA.com from shot charts and see what happened in end game situations. I don't recall losing many (any?) games in late game situations due to a break down off of a PNR. Maybe that's just confirmation bias, but it should be possible to objectively prove it one way or the others.

So it only matters if it is the last points of the game and not the 20 other points over the course of a game that matters?

We did not lose every game on a last minute pick and roll but that does not mean we did not lose the game because we could not defend against it over the course of the entire game.

If only there were some statistic that could show you a player's net impact on a game...

[mrknowitall215]

If only there were some statistic that could show you a player's net impact on a game...

NBA.com stats use a statistic called PIE% (Player Impact Estimate Percentage)

[yosemiteben]

If only there were some statistic that could show you a player's net impact on a game...

NBA.com stats use a statistic called PIE% (Player Impact Estimate Percentage)

I was being somewhat sarcastic, as the link I posted before does that as well.

[BeesWax]

What do you make of this: http://www.82games.com/1314/1314CHA.HTM

Al is not the one who is costing us games.

You mean the stats they use that only take into account what the player you are guarding scores against you. Those stats do not account for the number of times some other player scored because the team was scrambling to cover for Al deciding he was to lazy to make an effort to help on defense.

Um...no, the stats that show the difference in your team's performance when you're on the court vs. when you're off of it. It literally shows the exact opposite of what you just said.

Actually what you want to refer to I guess is the number of points we score per minute vs the number of point we give up per minute when players are on the floor.

In this case Al and MKG have the same value as both are positive .01 per minute. Kemba is .03 per minute making him our best at that value. Also CDR has the same value while he was on the court.

Also looking at the top 4 units by time only the starters we positive for all the others were negative. Only Kemba and MKG had more than one positive +/- in their top 4 units of our starters.

[HornetJail]

While we're talking about advanced stats on 82games,

Our starting unit was staggeringly good this season. the unit of Walker/Henderson/Kidd-Gilchrist/McRoberts/Jefferson outscored their opposition in 66.7% of the games they played together (22/33), accumulating a +/- of 102. Not bad for a team that barely scraped .500. There's no other lineup that we've played for more than 100 minutes all season that even comes close. The only successful five-man lineup without Jefferson in it is Walker/Sessions/Taylor/Zeller/Biyombo, which I assume is mostly made up of games where Al was hurt. That lineup played 51 minutes all season long though we outscored opponents 9 of 13 times.

I'm incredibly impressed with that 66.7%. Very few other teams have a main lineup with that kind of number. Indiana's starting unit clocks in at 69%, Golden State comes in at 74% (which makes sense given their D-League bench), Washington's starting five with Nene instead of Booker is at 68% (again, crappy bench).

Is this a result of just having a horrendous bench, or is our starting lineup really this good?

[mrknowitall215]

Is this a result of just having a horrendous bench, or is our starting lineup really this good?

The bench was horrendous outside of CDR and Biyombo. Replace Henderson with CDR and that +/- expand even more into the positive. However, the starting lineup was really good

[ARHornet]

Is this a result of just having a horrendous bench, or is our starting lineup really this good?

Bit of both. Mainly that our bench is horrendous. Besides CDR late in the year, and an occasional hot shooting night from Tolly or Neal, we have no one who can score the ball. Biz is a plus defensively but obviously has his faults on the offensive end. Zeller showed flashes but struggled for the most part. Backup PG was awful after we lost Sessions.

Now on the other end, our starters are really underrated in my opinion. We can nitpick and find faults in all of them but, bottom line, the play really well together. We still can and should upgrade certain spots, but our startling lineup is a good group of players.

[catch20two]

Big Al on NBA TV talking playoff basketball.

[doc.end]

If only there were some statistic that could show you a player's net impact on a game...

NBA.com stats use a statistic called PIE% (Player Impact Estimate Percentage)

Pie? Sean May just shed a tear.

[BigSlam]

Big Al finished 7th in the league MVP voting?

That's pretty damn impressive - especially considering he was banged up for the first 1/4 of the season and not playing healthy.

[LamarMatic7]

Big Al finished 7th in the league MVP voting?

That's pretty damn impressive - especially considering he was banged up for the first 1/4 of the season and not playing healthy.

Meanwhile in San Antone..

[tweet]https://twitter.com/mtokito/status/463708031961006080[/tweet]

[HornetJail]

Big Al finished 7th in the league MVP voting?

That's pretty damn impressive - especially considering he was banged up for the first 1/4 of the season and not playing healthy.

According to the wiretap, here's the top 16:
Kevin Durant
Lebron James
Blake Griffin
Joakim Noah
James Harden
Stephen Curry
AL MOTHERF*CKING JEFFERSON
Paul George
LaMarcus Aldridge
Kevin Love
Tim Duncan
Tony Parker
Dirk Nowitzki
Carmelo Anthony
Goran Dragic
Mike Conley



http://nba.si.com/2014/05/06/kevin-dura ... y-thunder/

Al got two 3rd place votes, four 4th place votes, and twelve 5th place votes.

One sad individual put Blake Griffin over Lebron too.

Mike Conley also received a top 5 vote, despite not even being the fifth most valuable player in his own division.