Our Franchise Direction?

[Stun704]

Are wins a bogus stat too?

If only okc had the same logic as you when they only won 20 games with a young Westbrook and Durant friend

[Durins Baynes]

Rebuilding is the way to go, but just because you win 20 games, it doesn't automatically means you will become OKC. OKC was a team with multiple stars and depth, which they acquired from the draft. They were never as bad as the Bobcats looked, and they got out of the hole much quicker. If you want to claim MKG, Zeller and Kemba are your Durant, Westbrook and Ibaka then by all means do so. Who is Harden? Hendo?

[thesneakysneak]

Rebuilding is the way to go, but just because you win 20 games, it doesn't automatically means you will become OKC. OKC was a team with multiple stars and depth, which they acquired from the draft.

Biyombo 21
MKG 19
Walker 23
Zeller 19

I'd say we are doing pretty well to collect these assets within three drafts. Fair enough we missed that clear cut 'superstar'. But with a possibility of 3 lottery picks in this draft the depth will be set for the future at the least.

Those first three guys played heavy minutes last season. MGK and Biz are still so raw that it's obvious we went with development over wins. This rubbish you are spewing about flat out sucking as opposed to tanking is pathetic, boring and played out.

[Durins Baynes]

I dunno about saying the last 3 drafts represent a good job. Of all those picks only Zeller looks good right now, and new brooms sweep pretty clean.

You could have had Kawhi or Klay instead of Walker and Biyombo and Drummond instead of MKG. The teams future would look a heck of a lot better if those 3 guys were next to Zeller. I'm not convinced Biyombo or Walker are going to be anything special at their positions, and right now they're not even above average. Or you could have taken Faried, Klay/Kawhi and Lillard to go with Zeller. Again, much better looking. I don't think too many people would look at those 4 picks and say "man, 4 home runs for the Bobcats".

[thesneakysneak]

I dunno about saying the last 3 drafts represent a good job. Of all those picks only Zeller looks good right now, and new brooms sweep pretty clean.

You could have had Kawhi or Klay instead of Walker and Biyombo and Drummond instead of MKG. The teams future would look a heck of a lot better if those 3 guys were next to Zeller. I'm not convinced Biyombo or Walker are going to be anything special at their positions, and right now they're not even above average. Or you could have taken Faried, Klay/Kawhi and Lillard to go with Zeller. Again, much better looking. I don't think too many people would look at those 4 picks and say "man, 4 home runs for the Bobcats".

Gee, hindsight is an amazing thing. You cant just pick and chose picks after the fact and say that's what we potentially missed out on collectively. By your own faulted logic those picks would have propelled us out of suckitude so that the next crop of picks would not potentially be available. Plus a whole bunch of other teams passed on the players you mentioned, they all have their shortcomings.
I never said anything about home run picks. But i think the assets we have picked up are solid. The front office is going after no thrills, hard working players from winning systems, apart from one pet project in Biz. I can see the clear direction the FO is taking and I can get behind it.
Again you put forward a garbage argument. I'm not sure why I'm biting.

[Durins Baynes]

Nobody is saying the draft is judged only by "did you pass on someone better?", of course that would be unfair in isolation. And I agree that rebuilding through the draft, as you have been doing, is the right way to go. But in assessing whether you got "good value" with your pick, I think it's reasonable to at least ask if that player lines up well with his draft slot in retrospect. So for instance, with Biyombo the question shouldn't be "did you pass on better players", it should be "is Biyombo the 7th best player in the draft?" The degree to which he is not, is a good indicator of the degree to which you failed (mitigating factors aside). I mean, he and Kemba are certainly better than some guys who went higher, like Vessley for eg.

But I don't think any of the 4 picks you alluded to stands up terribly well to that test, except Zeller. Kemba maybe at #9. Maybe. Biyombo and MKG not at all. That's not a bad run by your GM, but I certainly would not be happy with it from my front office.

[Vanderbilt_Grad]

The discussion about SRS prompted me to go out and look at some more final stats from last year. In particular I decided to look at the team’s opponents stats first and then some direct team stats. Here are some things that stood out to me that I’m not sure I’ve really seen talked about here or elsewhere.

1. In bad news the Bobcats lead the league in having their shots blocked by opponents (565). Cleveland (560) was nearly as bad, and Denver (554), Sacramento (517), Houston (498), NO (492), Minnesota (481), and Utah (480) fill up the rankings from worst up after that. I’m going to have to dig a bit more here, but I’m assuming that the issue was poor inside scoring from the team’s bigs and having the smalls trying to score inside without adequate 3 point shooters being on the floor with them. I specifically included Utah here because it’s not clear to me that Big Al will really fix this problem by himself. I think that the real fix will be a better offensive scheme (I’m encouraged by what I’ve seen so far from Big Red Dog) and better 3 point shooting (which I’m really iffy on at the moment). Interestingly Miami blew this stat away with only 262 of their shots being blocked over the season vs 322 for the next lowest team, OKC.

2. A positive sign was that the Bobcats were the 2nd best team in the league in terms of not having the ball stolen from them (569 steals against). IMHO this is a real testament to the strong PG play the team had from Kemba and Sessions last year. Last year’s offense was really geared towards these guys and this stat helps reflect that. I actually expect the team to do worse this year here given the High/Low Post scheme the teams is likely to run. This will put more ballhandling pressure on the bigs and result in some more turnovers and steals against. Still from last year we have an excellent stat supporting Kemba as a strong player.

3. Charlotte was the league’s 6th worst team at preventing opponents from getting Rebounds (both offensive and defensive). There obviously wasn’t enough blocking out going on. I expect modest improvement this year, but this is one area where Clifford, Ewing, and players like Zeller & Big Al could actually make a real difference. On the team side, while the Cat’s direct Offensive rebounding numbers weren’t terrible, they were 3rd worst in the league in DRBs.

4. The Bobcats were dead last in allowing opponents to have assisted shots. I honestly blame Dunlap’s on this one. However if it’s still bad this year then we may have to start asking questions about the overall defensive ability of players like Kemba, Hendo, MKG, etc.

5. Last year’s team was in the top 6 when it comes to drawing fouls. The VAST majority of those were drawn by Kemba, Hendo, and Sessions. That’s a strong sign of both the guard focused offense the team had and a testament to how good they really were (and how bad the inside scoring really was last year). It’s also a sign that the team wasn’t really killed by the refs last year. I’m not really sure where this stat is going to go next year, but if this stays the same or gets better (with more balance with the team’s bigs) then it could lead to more wins. In similar they were 4th best in FT made. So not only did they draw the fouls, because it was the guards doing so, the team actually made a lot of the resulting free throw attempts.

6. The Bobcats were dead last in shots made last year. They were 11th lowest in FGA, so while pace was an issue it wasn’t the sole cause. Instead the real issue was that the team was dead last in FG%. Lack of inside scoring, forced shots by the guards, and the ability of other teams to focus on Kemba and Hendo defensively lead to this sorry state IMHO. This is definitely an area where Big Al and perhaps Zeller can help.

7. Charlotte had very little outside shooting. They were 5th worst in 3PA and 4th worst in 3 point shots actually made. This is an area where I’m super pessimistic. We are left to hope that Hendo & Kemba have improved here and that perhaps Taylor gets more playing time.

8. The Cat’s blocking was actually a positive note. They were 6th best in Blocking shots … something that was largely to Biyombo’s credit alone.

9. Again pointing to strong guard play, Charlotte was the 8th in allowing the fewest turnovers. The good side of this is that it supports Kemba, Sessions, and Hendo as being the core of the team offensively and that they did a good job overall. But it also points to the lack of inside and 3 point shooting options.

10. Finally the team was 10th in fouls given (i.e. they didn't give many). I’m not sure what to make of this. Was is good that they weren’t fouling needlessly? Or is bad, indicating that they were allowing too many uncontested shots? Hopefully it was a bit of both and they can build on the good.


So the TLDR for me is that Kemba, Sessions, and Hendo were good last year in an offense that was designed for them. The lack of inside scoring and rebounding looks horrific. If the guard play continues to shine and the inside games becomes even average then the team will take a huge leap forward in terms of wins IMHO … but to really get to the next level after that they will need to add a lot more outside shooting (from existing players or new ones).

[Stun704]

I dunno about saying the last 3 drafts represent a good job. Of all those picks only Zeller looks good right now, and new brooms sweep pretty clean.

You could have had Kawhi or Klay instead of Walker and Biyombo and Drummond instead of MKG. The teams future would look a heck of a lot better if those 3 guys were next to Zeller. I'm not convinced Biyombo or Walker are going to be anything special at their positions, and right now they're not even above average. Or you could have taken Faried, Klay/Kawhi and Lillard to go with Zeller. Again, much better looking. I don't think too many people would look at those 4 picks and say "man, 4 home runs for the Bobcats".

How is Lillard better then kemba when stats prove otherwise? Perception, hype and the fact he got drafted on a regular better team right? They are essentially the same age yet kemba has better advanced stats such as Per. Everything else is essentially a wash except kemba has better defensive stats. So why dick ride Lillard and hate on Kemba friend? Something doesn't add up.. RealGM hype clouding your judgement friend?

www.hoopsstats.com/basketball/fantasy/n ... /25/361/57

[Durins Baynes]

I don't care a whole lot about advanced stats, especially not PER (which is the king of junk advanced stats). Lillard is a better player than Kemba, he's better at almost everything, especially being stronger, faster and more athletic. He had a better rookie year last season than Kemba had a Sophomore season, he scored more, he distributed as well, and he shot better percentages, all while being the best player on a better team. Talking about their ages is not really relevant, you still have an adjustment as a rookie, it's the biggest adjustment season a player has (see Kemba's terrible rookie season), and Lillard came out in his adjustment season and played better than Kemba did in his 2nd year. If Lillard improves half as much in his 2nd year as Kemba did then he'll be an all-NBA player this season (he won't, because Kemba was just awful in his rookie year, but he'll still improve).

[Liver_Pooty]

I don't care a whole lot about advanced stats, especially not PER (which is the king of junk advanced stats). Lillard is a better player than Kemba, he's better at almost everything, especially being stronger, faster and more athletic. He had a better rookie year last season than Kemba had a Sophomore season, he scored more, he distributed as well, and he shot better percentages, all while being the best player on a better team. Talking about their ages is not really relevant, you still have an adjustment as a rookie, it's the biggest adjustment season a player has (see Kemba's terrible rookie season), and Lillard came out in his adjustment season and played better than Kemba did in his 2nd year. If Lillard improves half as much in his 2nd year as Kemba did then he'll be an all-NBA player this season (he won't, because Kemba was just awful in his rookie year, but he'll still improve).

You lost all credibility when you said Lillard is better than Aldridge.

[Durins Baynes]

If he wasn't, it was close. Aldridge missed 8 games that season, so that weighed into my thinking some. 82 games of Lillard probably had more impact on winning than 74 games of Aldridge. The Blazers would have probably won 45+ games and made the playoffs in the East last season.

[Eoghan]

Put Lillard on Kemba's rookie season Bobcats team (the worst team of all time) and guess what, Lillard would not have won ROY, would have had awful assists numbers and looked more like the chucker (or to be nicer, a medium usage player playing high usage minutes) he really is.

[Durins Baynes]

Go to the PC board and ask whether people would take Kemba or Lillard. You're going to be disappointed.

[fatlever]

Go to the PC board and ask whether people would take Kemba or Lillard. You're going to be disappointed.

well, thats the point people here have been trying to make. lillard is overrated on realgm while kemba is underrated. its a matter of perception. in reality they are both in the same tier of point guards and who is better probably comes down to a preference of style. there is no question that according to advanced stats kemba had a better season last year. its also fair to argue that lillard was in a much better situation for a pg guard. put lillard on the bobcats last year and he would have been running the pick and roll with bismack, tyrus, mullens, warrick and diop. i am fairly certain that would have impacted his fg%, assists and turnovers.

[fatlever]

I don't care a whole lot about advanced stats, especially not PER (which is the king of junk advanced stats). Lillard is a better player than Kemba, he's better at almost everything, especially being stronger, faster and more athletic.

you have absolutely nothing to back up the statement that you think lillard is better other than your own opinion and directing us toward the comparison board. you can argue they are similar in skill and rank all day long and i wouldnt disagree. you can argue that you prefer lillard slightly or that you think he might be slightly better and i wouldnt argue. in fact when i did my point guard rankings last month i ranked lillard at 14 and kemba at 15. here's the difference, i accept that my opinion is simply that, an opinion. there is absolutely no way you or anyone else can confidently prove lillard is better than kemba or visa versa. they are simply too close statistically and too early in their careers to make that call.

as for your argument that lillard is better at almost everything, i would argue that i think kemba is a better defender, quicker, a better ball handler. both are fantastic at getting into the paint. lillard is a better shooter and probably better in the pick and roll (although to be fair kemba has never had a roll partner).

[Durins Baynes]

How about the fact that Lillard was a rookie, and (like almost all rookies) should see a substantial improvement in his 2nd year? That's why people are so impressed with Lillard. Not just that he looked so good, but that he looked so good as a rookie, and has the tools to be even better.

[fatlever]

How about the fact that Lillard was a rookie, and (like almost all rookies) should see a substantial improvement in his 2nd year? That's why people are so impressed with Lillard. Not just that he looked so good, but that he looked so good as a rookie, and has the tools to be even better.

fair enough, but countered with the fact that kemba's rookie year was during the strike and didnt have benefit of summer league, summer coaching and only had an abbreviated training camp with two preseason games and the most ridiculously pathetic coaching staff every assembled (silas and his band of misfits). also countered with lillard having 4 years of college to kemba's 3.

we can do this all night.

[fatlever]

and even you are admitting that part of your bias toward lillard is based on "potential" and the expectation he will get better due to only being a rookie. doesnt really back up your statement that lillard is better than kemba at everything does it?

[Durins Baynes]

3 v.s 4 years of college isn't really any sort of meaningful difference. Once you've been to college for 3 years you've got it down pat. It's when a guy is a freshman that people talk about how his game needs a lot of polish and fundamentals added. Lillard played better than Kemba last season (something you admit), and he should only get better this season. He also has tools that Kemba simply lacks, and which will prevent Kemba from ever aspiring to be more than Mike Conley with worse D. Lillard looks like he can be a heck of a lot more than that.

[fatlever]

Lillard played better than Kemba last season (something you admit), and he should only get better this season.

are you referring to my admitting i ranked lillard at 14 and kemba at 15? thats a flip of the coin type ranking. i put lillard one spot higher due lillard appearing more advanced in the pick and roll having the luxury of playing next to one of the best pick and roll partners in aldridge. now that kemba has zeller and jefferson, that could very well change. then again, if kemba doesnt improve in the pick and roll this year despite having better bigs, that would be a cause for concern. conversely, if lillard doesnt drastically improve defensively this year, that could also be a cause for concern.

again, the main point to be made here is that kemba and lillard are so close statistically and in age and experience, that its virtually impossible for anyone to confidently say which one is better.

nothing left to be gained by going around in circles in the summer. im out.