The Ace Bailey Thread

[SWedd523]

The Ringer now has Ace at 6th: https://nbadraft.theringer.com/

We still dying on the Ace hill? I'm not saying he'll be a bust or even that I don't want to take him at 4, but if you don't see the obvious risks in taking him then idk what to tell you.

I remain solidly on team VJ and if he's gone at #3 then for our situation I think you explore trades for an established star or consider a trade back if you can pick up rotational pieces along the way and depending on what those look like and if they aren't worth it -- take the swing on Ace.

It just sucks because Jeff already took the highest of risk swings on Salaun and doing it back to back years could bury him as a GM. Of course, it's better than settling for Malauch here which I'm still worried about him doing.

Not exactly a tall hill to die on lol

I don't care what the Ringer says any more than any of the other sites. they get clicks based on shifting guys around.

I still like Ace 3rd and VJ 4th but they're fairly interchangeable to me. They both have concerns so I'm not going to pretend like there's some clear hierarchy with these dudes

[JMAC3]

floor vs ceiling; risk vs reward

out of ace, vj, kon, tre who has highest/lowest floor and highest/lowest ceiling
exercise. on scale 1 to 10. 1 being out of league in 3 years, 10 being future all-nba, 5 is average starter. what is everyone's range 3-5 years from now.

key
1 = out of league in 3 years
2 = end of bench / bouncing around league
3 = end of rotation
4 = solid rotation guy
5 = avg starter
6 = high level starter
7 = borderline all-star
8 = consistent all-star
9 = all nba
10 = mvp level

rought thoughts

floor/ceiling

ace = 3 to 9
vj = 5 to 8
tre = 4 to 8
kon = 5 to 7

agree or disagree?

I think the floor for all 4 players is #2. There is no world where Kon or even VJ worst case is they are an average starter.

[MPM]

agree or disagree?

Think I'd go Ace - 4-8
VJ - 5-7
Tre - 4-7
Kon - 4-6

Don't really see Al-NBA or better for any of them.

[SWedd523]

floor vs ceiling; risk vs reward

out of ace, vj, kon, tre who has highest/lowest floor and highest/lowest ceiling
exercise. on scale 1 to 10. 1 being out of league in 3 years, 10 being future all-nba, 5 is average starter. what is everyone's range 3-5 years from now.

key
1 = out of league in 3 years
2 = end of bench / bouncing around league
3 = end of rotation
4 = solid rotation guy
5 = avg starter
6 = high level starter
7 = borderline all-star
8 = consistent all-star
9 = all nba
10 = mvp level

rought thoughts

floor/ceiling

ace = 3 to 9
vj = 5 to 8
tre = 4 to 8
kon = 5 to 7

agree or disagree?

I see no universe whatsoever where Kon ever sniffs an All-Star game. Placing his "ceiling" anywhere near the other three is just disingenuous equivalence IMO

[fatlever]

floor vs ceiling; risk vs reward

out of ace, vj, kon, tre who has highest/lowest floor and highest/lowest ceiling
exercise. on scale 1 to 10. 1 being out of league in 3 years, 10 being future all-nba, 5 is average starter. what is everyone's range 3-5 years from now.

key
1 = out of league in 3 years
2 = end of bench / bouncing around league
3 = end of rotation
4 = solid rotation guy
5 = avg starter
6 = high level starter
7 = borderline all-star
8 = consistent all-star
9 = all nba
10 = mvp level

rought thoughts

floor/ceiling

ace = 3 to 9
vj = 5 to 8
tre = 4 to 8
kon = 5 to 7

agree or disagree?

I think the floor for all 4 players is #2. There is no world where Kon or even VJ worst case is they are an average starter.

I think vj, tre and kon all have an elite skill that at the very least would keep them in a rotation. we've seen some pretty terrible defensive players that are elite three point shooters stay in rotations for a decade. And we've seen some pretty bad offensive players who were high level defenders that stayed in rotations for a long time. Therefore I can't see a realistic path towards those three having a floor anywhere near that low. You could talk man to lowering the floor on each of those three by one. And I guess there is a world where ace just is so bad at processing or fitting in as a role player and is unwilling to change his game that coaches lose patience and he sits at the end of the bench or bounces around the league on his rookie deal. So I could see his floor actually being 2.

[fatlever]

floor vs ceiling; risk vs reward

out of ace, vj, kon, tre who has highest/lowest floor and highest/lowest ceiling
exercise. on scale 1 to 10. 1 being out of league in 3 years, 10 being future all-nba, 5 is average starter. what is everyone's range 3-5 years from now.

key
1 = out of league in 3 years
2 = end of bench / bouncing around league
3 = end of rotation
4 = solid rotation guy
5 = avg starter
6 = high level starter
7 = borderline all-star
8 = consistent all-star
9 = all nba
10 = mvp level

rought thoughts

floor/ceiling

ace = 3 to 9
vj = 5 to 8
tre = 4 to 8
kon = 5 to 7

agree or disagree?

I see no universe whatsoever where Kon ever sniffs an All-Star game. Placing his "ceiling" anywhere near the other three is just disingenuous equivalence IMO

In that case most of the analysts are wildly off on kon As a prospect. Which is possible, every year there's plenty of top 10 picks that buzzed. But to be consistently mocked or in the top seven of anyone's big board suggests that least a ceiling of high-end starter/borderline all-star. I don't think anyone projects kon's ceiling to be as high as the other three, But I'm also not sure scouts and draft analysts believe his ceiling as is low as it seems you think it might be. The way you talk about him makes me feel like you view him as more of a mid-first rounder. Is that where you are with him?

[JustBuzzin]

From what I have seen all things point to Ace being the pick for Philly. Just looking at their roster you would think they would favor the wing.

I'm trying to prepare myself for the possibility of us drafting VJ and I just don't see it. I will root for him, but I'm not very confident he's the best pick.

[JMAC3]

floor vs ceiling; risk vs reward

out of ace, vj, kon, tre who has highest/lowest floor and highest/lowest ceiling
exercise. on scale 1 to 10. 1 being out of league in 3 years, 10 being future all-nba, 5 is average starter. what is everyone's range 3-5 years from now.

key
1 = out of league in 3 years
2 = end of bench / bouncing around league
3 = end of rotation
4 = solid rotation guy
5 = avg starter
6 = high level starter
7 = borderline all-star
8 = consistent all-star
9 = all nba
10 = mvp level

rought thoughts

floor/ceiling

ace = 3 to 9
vj = 5 to 8
tre = 4 to 8
kon = 5 to 7

agree or disagree?

I think the floor for all 4 players is #2. There is no world where Kon or even VJ worst case is they are an average starter.

I think vj, tre and kon all have an elite skill that at the very least would keep them in a rotation. we've seen some pretty terrible defensive players that are elite three point shooters stay in rotations for a decade. And we've seen some pretty bad offensive players who were high level defenders that stayed in rotations for a long time. Therefore I can't see a realistic path towards those three having a floor anywhere near that low. You could talk man to lowering the floor on each of those three by one. And I guess there is a world where ace just is so bad at processing or fitting in as a role player and is unwilling to change his game that coaches lose patience and he sits at the end of the bench or bounces around the league on his rookie deal. So I could see his floor actually being 2.

Davion Mitchell elite defender, was out of rotations. Ben Simmons elite defender out of rotations. Kris Dunn out of rotation for years. Josh Okogie was barely playing for Phoenix. Seth Curry was not playing and is best shooter in NBA history by %, Gradey Dick was awesome shooter, don't know if I think his floor is average starter, same for Kispert, same with Jordan Hawkins, same with Davis Bertans. Dalton Knecht and Reed Sheppard would not be playing at this point in the playoffs because they aren't good defenders and people said they were all world shooters last draft.

Most definitely a world where Kon is the 11th man on a team where his defense can't keep him on the floor. Definitely a world where VJ is not a starter if he can't make enough shots.

[fatlever]

Then the discussion is pointless. Everyone is a 1 floor and 10 ceiling. Because there are always exceptions.

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[fatlever]

Semantics police

Let's use average reasonable expected floor ceiling.

Or just list who you think has highest/lowest floor ceiling based on reasonable range of outcomes.

Obviously that the point of the conversation. Not to play "gotcha"

You state all 4 have a reasonable floor of 2. I disagree.


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[SWedd523]

floor vs ceiling; risk vs reward

out of ace, vj, kon, tre who has highest/lowest floor and highest/lowest ceiling
exercise. on scale 1 to 10. 1 being out of league in 3 years, 10 being future all-nba, 5 is average starter. what is everyone's range 3-5 years from now.

key
1 = out of league in 3 years
2 = end of bench / bouncing around league
3 = end of rotation
4 = solid rotation guy
5 = avg starter
6 = high level starter
7 = borderline all-star
8 = consistent all-star
9 = all nba
10 = mvp level

rought thoughts

floor/ceiling

ace = 3 to 9
vj = 5 to 8
tre = 4 to 8
kon = 5 to 7

agree or disagree?

I see no universe whatsoever where Kon ever sniffs an All-Star game. Placing his "ceiling" anywhere near the other three is just disingenuous equivalence IMO

In that case most of the analysts are wildly off on kon As a prospect. Which is possible, every year there's plenty of top 10 picks that buzzed. But to be consistently mocked or in the top seven of anyone's big board suggests that least a ceiling of high-end starter/borderline all-star. I don't think anyone projects kon's ceiling to be as high as the other three, But I'm also not sure scouts and draft analysts believe his ceiling as is low as it seems you think it might be. The way you talk about him makes me feel like you view him as more of a mid-first rounder. Is that where you are with him?

It seems fairly clear to me:

How many guys with his archetype are high end players? That mold seems to seriously top out at high end role player. Which is fine, for a team that has an established hierarchy.

Charlotte needs star power. He's not that guy. Can't be that guy. So it's a non-starter for me.

We see it just about every year. random white dude from big school shoots lights out and gets drafted way too high, where he inevitably ends up being limited by his lack of length, lack of athleticism, and lack of playmaking ability.

Reed, Dick, Kispert, etc.

The ones who made it (Herro, Franz, etc) have additional high end skills to bank on.

I don't want to listen to the bs hullabaloo about his "passing" or "defense" or whatever. He's hoping to be a Korver/Redick tier guy.


Nothing wrong with that, unless you're drafting #4

[JMAC3]

Then the discussion is pointless. Everyone is a 1 floor and 10 ceiling. Because there are always exceptions.

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I mean you asked lol.
If Kon is at worse an average starter with some allstar possibilities, you are basically saying he is going to be equal or better than guys like CJ McCollum, Devin Vassell, KCP, Desmond Bane, Austin Reaves...

I think the most likely outcome for all of them is they are starters in the NBA as their ceilings because that is what most 4-6 players reach. Ace and Tre have best chance of being All-stars because 90% of all-stars are elite offensive players and very few get to be allstars by being below average offensive players. VJ and Ace probably have the highest floors because they best defenders. Kon and Tre probably have the best chance to be awesome bench players because that is what most shooters who struggle to defend become.

[fatlever]

If all the scouts and draft analysts all believed Ace had both the highest ceiling and highest floor of this bunch then it wouldn't even be a debate as to who should go 3rd. It would universally be Ace.

I watched dozens of draft podcasts over the past two weeks and read everything I can get my hands on and almost all of them have similar conclusions on Ace, that he has the widest range of outcomes of the guys mocked in this range.

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[fatlever]

He still gets mocked third because when you're drafting in the top three you draft for the highest upside almost always. And he clearly has the highest upside.

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[the_process]

What would Charlotte give to move up to 3?

[JustBuzzin]

He still gets mocked third because when you're drafting in the top three you draft for the highest upside almost always. And he clearly has the highest upside.

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Of course he has the highest upside.

A 6'7 wing who's already a bucket with a weak handle is promising. Imagine if he actually improves that handle even a little bit. That's going to open up his game even more.

Now his weaknesses are obvious not much of a playmaker and he takes very difficult shots due to his lack of ball handling.

I see a kid who has tremendous potential and someone who can grow with Miller at the wing position. You telling me we have a chance to have 2 20+ppg wings and I would take that in a heartbeat.

My only concern is I don't see Philly passing him up at #3.

[SWedd523]

What would Charlotte give to move up to 3?

I don't see any reason to. there isn't a clear #3 so I'm okay with whomever of VJ, Ace, or even Tre emerges as the next best

[JustBuzzin]

What would Charlotte give to move up to 3?

I don't see any reason to. there isn't a clear #3 so I'm okay with whomever of VJ, Ace, or even Tre emerges as the next best

I would do PG/#3 for Bridges/Nurkic/#4

Have PG mentor Miller/Bailey and maybe we can move him down the line.

[fatlever]

He still gets mocked third because when you're drafting in the top three you draft for the highest upside almost always. And he clearly has the highest upside.

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Of course he has the highest upside.

A 6'7 wing who's already a bucket with a weak handle is promising. Imagine if he actually improves that handle even a little bit. That's going to open up his game even more.

Now his weaknesses are obvious not much of a playmaker and he takes very difficult shots due to his lack of ball handling.

I see a kid who has tremendous potential and someone who can grow with Miller at the wing position. You telling me we have a chance to have 2 20+ppg wings and I would take that in a heartbeat.

My only concern is I don't see Philly passing him up at #3.

I guess the concern might be redundancy. Similar strengths and weaknesses.

Melo Miller Ace miles mark... for example... who is doing the Dirty Work in that lineup? Who is sacrificing their offense to focus on the defensive end or focus on playmaking and passing, who is the extra ball handler, who is putting pressure on the rim? I guess it's miles for all those things. Or you are making trades.

If the team thinks Ace has the highest upside and he's there at 4, I wouldn't hesitate to pick him just because I have Miller on the roster. But I also am immediately thinking in the back of my head that there's a very real possibility that I have to move one of these two players in the next two years because I not entirely sure how they function together.

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[JustBuzzin]

He still gets mocked third because when you're drafting in the top three you draft for the highest upside almost always. And he clearly has the highest upside.

Sent from my SM-G973U using RealGM mobile app

Of course he has the highest upside.

A 6'7 wing who's already a bucket with a weak handle is promising. Imagine if he actually improves that handle even a little bit. That's going to open up his game even more.

Now his weaknesses are obvious not much of a playmaker and he takes very difficult shots due to his lack of ball handling.

I see a kid who has tremendous potential and someone who can grow with Miller at the wing position. You telling me we have a chance to have 2 20+ppg wings and I would take that in a heartbeat.

My only concern is I don't see Philly passing him up at #3.

I guess the concern might be redundancy. Similar strengths and weaknesses.

Melo Miller Ace miles mark... for example... who is doing the Dirty Work in that lineup? Who is sacrificing their offense to focus on the defensive end or focus on playmaking and passing, who is the extra ball handler, who is putting pressure on the rim? I guess it's miles for all those things. Or you are making trades.

If the team thinks Ace has the highest upside and he's there at 4, I wouldn't hesitate to pick him just because I have Miller on the roster. But I also am immediately thinking in the back of my head that there's a very real possibility that I have to move one of these two players in the next two years because I not entirely sure how they function together.

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Not sure if we can assume Bridges or Mark are here for the long haul. I definitely think we would have to find a legit pf. I think Mark is actually fine with the other starters. Bridges always felt like the odd man out imo.


The problem with trading Bridges is he's our most reliable consistent starter. Whoever we bring in has to be someone who can stay healthy.