Big Al's Paint: The Al Jefferson Thread

Post #1641 » by **JDR720** » Wed Nov 12, 2014 2:27 am

[tweet]https://twitter.com/ZachLowe_NBA/status/532358299828891648[/tweet]

Al should try this

Post #1642 » by **JDR720** » Fri Nov 14, 2014 8:32 pm

[tweet]https://twitter.com/NBA/status/533356247194411009[/tweet]

LamarMatic7 · Post #1643 » by **LamarMatic7** » Sat Nov 15, 2014 10:00 am

yep. promo for that segment.

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MwdZsxpt5MM[/youtube]

BeesWax · Post #1644 » by **BeesWax** » Mon Nov 17, 2014 12:42 pm

Here is a question. What does Al have to put up on any given night to be a net positive? I love his offense but he seems to give about as much away as he gets. I was thinking he likely needs to score around 24-26 on 50% shooting to be an effective player for us. With what he gives up on defense he really needs to have consistent quality offensive games. What do you guys think. What is his break even point?

Post #1645 » by **yosemiteben** » Mon Nov 17, 2014 2:46 pm

jdm3 wrote:Here is a question. What does Al have to put up on any given night to be a net positive? I love his offense but he seems to give about as much away as he gets. I was thinking he likely needs to score around 24-26 on 50% shooting to be an effective player for us. With what he gives up on defense he really needs to have consistent quality offensive games. What do you guys think. What is his break even point?

82games tells us he's already been a net positive this season, pretty much on par with Lance and Kemba.

BeesWax · Post #1646 » by **BeesWax** » Mon Nov 17, 2014 2:52 pm

yosemiteben wrote:
jdm3 wrote:Here is a question. What does Al have to put up on any given night to be a net positive? I love his offense but he seems to give about as much away as he gets. I was thinking he likely needs to score around 24-26 on 50% shooting to be an effective player for us. With what he gives up on defense he really needs to have consistent quality offensive games. What do you guys think. What is his break even point?

82games tells us he's already been a net positive this season, pretty much on par with Lance and Kemba.

That site also tells us he has spent a decent amount of time at PF this season. Also his net points according to the site is -23. I am just curious what people think he has to do to not lose his points battle, not just with his man but also with what he gives up do to his inability to help defend.

Post #1647 » by **BigSlam** » Mon Nov 17, 2014 10:56 pm

jdm3 wrote:
yosemiteben wrote:
jdm3 wrote:Here is a question. What does Al have to put up on any given night to be a net positive? I love his offense but he seems to give about as much away as he gets. I was thinking he likely needs to score around 24-26 on 50% shooting to be an effective player for us. With what he gives up on defense he really needs to have consistent quality offensive games. What do you guys think. What is his break even point?

82games tells us he's already been a net positive this season, pretty much on par with Lance and Kemba.

That site also tells us he has spent a decent amount of time at PF this season. Also his net points according to the site is -23. I am just curious what people think he has to do to not lose his points battle, not just with his man but also with what he gives up do to his inability to help defend.

I think you have look further into it than that. For example - when it is that he scores. Like have we been on a scoring drought or where the shot clock is. There are very few guys in the league that can do what Al does, let alone on our roster.

He is elite at his craft and the only elite class player on our team.

Hopefully MKG will get there with his D as well.

TheKingofSting · Post #1648 » by **TheKingofSting** » Tue Nov 18, 2014 3:08 am

Big Al had a hot start vs Dallas but then couldn't buy a bucket.

BeesWax · Post #1649 » by **BeesWax** » Tue Nov 18, 2014 12:37 pm

BigSlam wrote:
jdm3 wrote:
yosemiteben wrote:82games tells us he's already been a net positive this season, pretty much on par with Lance and Kemba.

That site also tells us he has spent a decent amount of time at PF this season. Also his net points according to the site is -23. I am just curious what people think he has to do to not lose his points battle, not just with his man but also with what he gives up do to his inability to help defend.

I think you have look further into it than that. For example - when it is that he scores. Like have we been on a scoring drought or where the shot clock is. There are very few guys in the league that can do what Al does, let alone on our roster.

He is elite at his craft and the only elite class player on our team.

Hopefully MKG will get there with his D as well.

How elite is he? He has games where he seems unstoppable but currently he is putting up 20 points on 48% shooting with a FT% of about 60%. Is that better than say someone who scores 14 points on 50% and can play at least a little defense? So far this year he has not rebounded well and never in his career has he defended well.

My biggest issue is if he has an off night he becomes a massive negative. Last night against Dallas he may have been our worst player. 25% from the field and absolutely no defense is unacceptable. If you are going to be completely on way player you cannot have games like this. He needs to put up 20+ points on less than 15 FGA. Scoring 20 while shooting 19 is not going to cut it when it is your only good skill. The problem with him is he is so dependent on scoring that if that does not work he is just worthless.

Post #1650 » by **BigSlam** » Tue Nov 18, 2014 5:10 pm

jdm3 wrote:
BigSlam wrote:
jdm3 wrote:That site also tells us he has spent a decent amount of time at PF this season. Also his net points according to the site is -23. I am just curious what people think he has to do to not lose his points battle, not just with his man but also with what he gives up do to his inability to help defend.

I think you have look further into it than that. For example - when it is that he scores. Like have we been on a scoring drought or where the shot clock is. There are very few guys in the league that can do what Al does, let alone on our roster.

He is elite at his craft and the only elite class player on our team.

Hopefully MKG will get there with his D as well.

How elite is he?

He is the best offensive post player in the NBA.

He has games where he seems unstoppable but currently he is putting up 20 points on 48% shooting with a FT% of about 60%.

We've played, what - 10 games? Wayyyyyyy too much of a small sample size. Lets wait until at least 20-25 games before looking at season stats.

Is that better than say someone who scores 14 points on 50% and can play at least a little defense?

Again, it's not always about the number of points. Sometimes it's about when and how they are scored.

So far this year he has not rebounded well and never in his career has he defended well.

He's a career 9rpg guy who has had sixe 10rpg or more seasons so far in his career.

My biggest issue is if he has an off night he becomes a massive negative. Last night against Dallas he may have been our worst player. 25% from the field and absolutely no defense is unacceptable. If you are going to be completely on way player you cannot have games like this

.
He had a total stinker last night, no doubt. But seriously - how often does that happen for him? His career averages of 17/9/1.5 and 1.3 blocks per game on 50% from the floor and 71% from the line would suggest not very often - and that doesn't even take in account his first two seasons where he hardly played.

Is he a bad defender? Ya, I mean he's not at Morrison levels, but he's he's not great. Of course if he was a fantastic defender while being the offensive player that he is that would make him prime Duncan or Garnett like - and there are only two of them (who in their primes were paid almost double what Al gets).

You like to think about how many points Al gets Vs how many he gives up?

I like to think that if we didn't have Al we would be lucky to even score 60pts per game as a team.

IMO we are much, much, much better off with him than without him and he is the LEAST of our worries and flaws right now.

HornetJail · Post #1651 » by **HornetJail** » Tue Nov 18, 2014 5:17 pm

Well said Slam. I would be willing to bet that Al won't be this bad offensively or defensively the rest of the season, or even the rest of the calendar year. Al historically starts seasons slowly and finishes strong. He really turns it up in January just about every year so it's not really a huge surprise that he's a bit slow right now, but I wasn't braced for this level of apathy and just overall crappy play from him on both ends. He's going to get plenty better and so is the rest of the team. It's probably a good thing that everything bad is happening now- injuries, learning to play together, tough schedule, etc- because once December is gone, we'll have a hole to dig ourselves out of, but we'll have a way easier schedule and by then, the team will have had two months to feel each other's games out. I still fully expect us to win about 46 games this year. We're probably going to be around 8-17, but once this team clicks, it's going to be pretty sick because we will also be playing a much easier schedule. Remember that last season, we were as low as 15-23, and then we went 28-18 the rest of the way with a tough record. If we start 8-17, we can go 38-19 the rest of the way. We have a VERY easy two-month stretch after mid-December.

LamarMatic7 · Post #1652 » by **LamarMatic7** » Tue Nov 18, 2014 7:43 pm

BizGilwalker wrote:Well said Slam. I would be willing to bet that Al won't be this bad offensively or defensively the rest of the season, or even the rest of the calendar year. Al historically starts seasons slowly and finishes strong. He really turns it up in January just about every year so it's not really a huge surprise that he's a bit slow right now

checked it out. he has improved his ppg, rpg and FG% every year, expect 2009-10 where his ppg stayed the same, yet the FG% climbed. I separated it as october-december and january-april. did this to 2008-09, then I got bored and concluded that, yep, enough evidence to suit me.

TheKingofSting · Post #1653 » by **TheKingofSting** » Tue Nov 18, 2014 11:37 pm

I don't know if he is salvageable defensively but hopefully he gets better on offense.

HornetJail · Post #1654 » by **HornetJail** » Wed Nov 19, 2014 12:09 am

TheKingofSting wrote:I don't know if he is salvageable defensively but hopefully he gets better on offense.

He was just fine last year. He wasn't really a liability defensively. Below average, but not a liability. We were able to build a top 5 defense around it, so it's obvious that we're okay when he tries.

TheKingofSting · Post #1655 » by **TheKingofSting** » Wed Nov 19, 2014 12:12 am

I thought he was just so good offensively and we schemed around it but either way hopefully just a slow start.

Braggins · Post #1656 » by **Braggins** » Wed Nov 19, 2014 3:21 am

I'm not worried about Al's scoring but I don't think his defense is going to improve. I think the only reason we got away with him defensively last year was because no one took us seriously and the eastern conference was so bad. Last year teams didn't play against us the way they have consistently this year until very late into the season when the few East teams that wanted to make the playoffs started jockeying for position. We saw instances last year where good teams would do the same things to our defense that every team is doing this year and it has always had the same results. I don't expect us to be a good defensive at all this year and I wouldn't advise anyone to have high hopes for much improvement in this area. Even if Jefferson does get into better shape and tries a little more it isn't going to matter if teams spend all game forcing him to play pick and roll defense and taking advantage of him not hedging screens at all. He has never been able to do those things and never will. We are going to have to win shootouts most nights and we have the worst offensive system in the NBA. I hope Al opts out and our front office isn't stupid enough to extend or resign him. Although, at this point I think that he will probably opt in because unless all the other GMs in the NBA just aren't paying any attention to how we play I can't imagine someone wanting to pay him more than what we already are. If I was Cho I would already be looking into trade possibilities in case this continues.

Post #1657 » by **yosemiteben** » Wed Nov 19, 2014 4:59 am

Braggins wrote:I think the only reason we got away with him defensively last year was because no one took us seriously and the eastern conference was so bad. Last year teams didn't play against us the way they have consistently this year until very late into the season when the few East teams that wanted to make the playoffs started jockeying for position.

I think that it is a terrible argument. Teams just missed more shots against us and didn't care because they didn't take us seriously? That's your interpretation of why we had such a solid defense?

That's some tortured logic.

Braggins · Post #1658 » by **Braggins** » Wed Nov 19, 2014 6:11 am

yosemiteben wrote:
Braggins wrote:I think the only reason we got away with him defensively last year was because no one took us seriously and the eastern conference was so bad. Last year teams didn't play against us the way they have consistently this year until very late into the season when the few East teams that wanted to make the playoffs started jockeying for position.

I think that it is a terrible argument. Teams just missed more shots against us and didn't care because they didn't take us seriously? That's your interpretation of why we had such a solid defense?

That's some tortured logic.

No, my point was that the Eastern conference teams weren't used to game-planning to face Al Jefferson (and most of them were tanking) and most of the league didn't view us as a threat so teams weren't scouting us as heavily as other teams they viewed as more relevant and thus weren't as prepared to exploit our weaknesses. NBA teams are smart and make adjustments and everyone seems to have figured out that they have to take us seriously and how to exploit Al on defense as much as possible. We didn't see teams targeting Al on defense as heavily as they have this year until towards the end of last season. You could definitely see teams start to pick up on what we were doing defensively and start attacking Al the way everyone is this year. Our defensive plan to mitigate Al is almost a gimmick and NBA teams are generally smart and have figured it out. What is your explanation for why our defense is so bad compared to last season?

Post #1659 » by **yosemiteben** » Wed Nov 19, 2014 6:27 am

Braggins wrote:What is your explanation for why our defense is so bad compared to last season?

(1) Injuries - MKG has had multiple injuries. Lance has had a nagging groin injury. Kemba has had multiple injury issues. Hendo is coming back from injury.

(2) We have played excellent offensive teams so far. In our 11 games, we've played 5 of the top 10 offenses (by PPG) and seven of the top 12.

Braggins · Post #1660 » by **Braggins** » Wed Nov 19, 2014 6:33 am

yosemiteben wrote:
Braggins wrote:What is your explanation for why our defense is so bad compared to last season?

(1) Injuries - MKG has had multiple injuries. Lance has had a nagging groin injury. Kemba has had multiple injury issues. Hendo is coming back from injury.

(2) We have played excellent offensive teams so far. In our 11 games, we've played 5 of the top 10 offenses (by PPG) and seven of the top 12.

Valid points. I think injuries have possibly been our biggest overall issue this season because we have been often undermanned and our core group has not been able to play much together. Our schedule also has been quite grueling. I think our defense will improve but I don't expect us to be good like we were last year. Al HAS to increase his effort to have any chance of that happening and even if he does I'm not sure how we counter what teams are doing to counter our scheme but we will see. Clifford does seem to have some defensive chops and we are starting to get a steady dose of Biz so hopefully we figure something out. We really need to get healthy and get some practice time. Hopefully that will do the trick and my skepticism will be proven wrong.