Fun with Stats!!!

[yosemiteben]

Biz should likely stay in the paint more. Our team as a whole has been very porous on defense and both Biz and Zeller have been running around trying to help make up for that.

I think we totally agree here. We need to be giving up midrange shots, not pulling out our centers to contest them so we have wide open lanes to the basket.

Al is lazy and only contests shots in his area when brought there by the other team. He has no range. If you want to use stats from NBA.com then Al travels 3 miles per 48 minutes to Biz's 3.3 or Zeller at 3.6. Al picks a spot plants there and doesn't move. There are only five people who play at least 12 minutes a game who travel less per 48 than Big Al.

Just to be clear, you are completely ignoring the stats I provided that support the fact that these stats include tons of shots in the paint against Al, at least comparable to top tier NBA centers. They aren't artificially deflated as you claim.

I don't know what arguing that Biz runs 3 tenths of a mile more than Al per 48 gets you, frankly I am surprised the discrepancy isn't wider. So Biz only runs around 10% more than Al? Seems low to me.

Our team gives up better shooting percentages from less than 5 feet with Al in as compared to Biz also we give up better percentages to other teams from range.

Just out of curiosity, where do you get those numbers from? Not at all contesting that they aren't true, but curious if the source lets you tweak the numbers as I'd like to play around with them.

[BeesWax]

Way to compare him to somebody people are afraid to challenge. Davis' shots are down because people don't like to take it at him while Al's are down because he is no where near the shooter.

Did you miss the part where I said Al has the most shots taken against him in the 5 - 9 foot range than any other center in the NBA? Look at the top 12 in that range - Cousins, Dwight, Noah, ADavis, Pau, Deandre Jordan, Hibbert, Gasol. So Al is failing to contest lots of shots in the middle of the paint yet somehow has the most FGAs in that range of all NBA centers? Doesn't add up.

What I would really like to know if the difference in uncontested shots for our team while Al is in the game vs when he is out. I would think from watching that number would be staggering in terms of difference per 48.

I would be curious too, would be an interesting statistic. Honestly not sure how to construct it or where to find it though.

I don't think you can find it. I have played around a decent bit today both on NBA.com and with google. Outside of SportsVU which you have to pay for and I am not sure even it has the info we want.

As for the Al thing if he is standing at the edge of the restricted area and a guy pulls up from 5-6 feet to shoot is he within range to be counted against? Why take it all the way to him if you know he won't step out. With the arc spreading out three feet from the basket he would be within a few feet from the man but still not contesting. No player is going to take it in against a guy who is not going to leave they will pull up short and take the open look. I would love to see how many of his are from 5-6 vs the other guys being from closer to the 9 range or even further out. Since they stray away from the restricted area more they challenge shots further out I would think.

Honestly the best thing to do it watch. Just seeing him stand in the lane while his man sets a screen at the top of the key pisses me off. He does not even get as high as the foul line most times. Those uncontested jumpers are there all day for players who can shoot.

[BeesWax]

Just out of curiosity, where do you get those numbers from? Not at all contesting that they aren't true, but curious if the source lets you tweak the numbers as I'd like to play around with them.

NBA.com league player stats opponent shooting sorted to just our team. You can divide it into 5 ft zones, which I did, or use 8ft or areas of the court. I just looked at the percentages we gave up while these guys were in the game and we are much worse around the rim with Al than Biz, like 5 or 6% depending on type of area you use.

[yosemiteben]

As for the Al thing if he is standing at the edge of the restricted area and a guy pulls up from 5-6 feet to shoot is he within range to be counted against? Why take it all the way to him if you know he won't step out. With the arc spreading out three feet from the basket he would be within a few feet from the man but still not contesting.

So now your argument is that Al actually is getting more uncontested baskets credited to him, but guys just happen to miss them and that's why he only gives up 35.9%, about the same as Anthony Davis, who has the same number of attempts from that range? Really dude? Right after you make this huge argument about how his FG% is artificially deflated because uncontested shots aren't being credited to him?

It feels like you're bending every which way to avoid acknowledging that maybe, just maybe, Al isn't the worst defender in the world.

No player is going to take it in against a guy who is not going to leave they will pull up short and take the open look.

Considering they shoot 35% when they do that against Al, maybe they should stop.

Honestly the best thing to do it watch. Just seeing him stand in the lane while his man sets a screen at the top of the key pisses me off. He does not even get as high as the foul line most times. Those uncontested jumpers are there all day for players who can shoot.

That was exactly Clifford's scheme from last year. Give up long twos, clamp down on threes and drives to the basket. We did the exact same thing last year.

[BeesWax]

Biz should likely stay in the paint more. Our team as a whole has been very porous on defense and both Biz and Zeller have been running around trying to help make up for that.

I think we totally agree here. We need to be giving up midrange shots, not pulling out our centers to contest them so we have wide open lanes to the basket.

.

Well you complained about him getting lit up by Speights but this is what happened. He helped defend the paint and the elbow jumper killed us. I like him being down low but teams are working at getting him out of there. We need centers who can do a little of both. I will admit when Al leaves the lane it is a layup because he is basically a second screener he is so slow but he still needs to try harder. He doesn't move at all and gives up to many uncontested shots. Biz has to get credit for all his hustle. He contested a number of Speights jumpers despite trying to recover from the lane where he was helping defend the rim against a potential drive.

[yosemiteben]

Biz should likely stay in the paint more. Our team as a whole has been very porous on defense and both Biz and Zeller have been running around trying to help make up for that.

I think we totally agree here. We need to be giving up midrange shots, not pulling out our centers to contest them so we have wide open lanes to the basket.

.

Well you complained about him getting lit up by Speights but this is what happened. He helped defend the paint and the elbow jumper killed us. I like him being down low but teams are working at getting him out of there. We need centers who can do a little of both. I will admit when Al leaves the lane it is a layup because he is basically a second screener he is so slow but he still needs to try harder. He doesn't move at all and gives up to many uncontested shots. Biz has to get credit for all his hustle. He contested a number of Speights jumpers despite trying to recover from the lane where he was helping defend the rim against a potential drive.

Fair point about Speights generally, though I totally dispute that Biz contested them in any way, not my recollection at all. Even if that is true, I'd think that after, I don't know, 10 consecutive points that maybe you make the obvious adjustment and not leave him off screens. How crazy is it that we could've stolen a game from GSW where our defense did a pretty great job and then **** Marreese Speights was the one that took us down.

[BeesWax]

As for the Al thing if he is standing at the edge of the restricted area and a guy pulls up from 5-6 feet to shoot is he within range to be counted against? Why take it all the way to him if you know he won't step out. With the arc spreading out three feet from the basket he would be within a few feet from the man but still not contesting.

So now your argument is that Al actually is getting more uncontested baskets credited to him, but guys just happen to miss them and that's why he only gives up 35.9%, about the same as Anthony Davis, who has the same number of attempts from that range? Really dude? Right after you make this huge argument about how his FG% is artificially deflated because uncontested shots aren't being credited to him?

It feels like you're bending every which way to avoid acknowledging that maybe, just maybe, Al isn't the worst defender in the world.

No Al is terrible not the worst but terrible. You are taking very poor stats and trying to show something that is absolutely false. I showed you how when he is in the game we are worse the the rim than when he is not. So if his defense at the rim is better than Biz's then he must not be defending the rim very often, aka uncontested shots. I was arguing his percentages are inflated because he does not contest as many shot because he is lazy. Davis does not because people don't shoot on him. We give up more points while he is in there then we do when he is out per 100 possessions. So if he is defending so great where are they coming from? I would say from watching the game we give up way more uncontested shots when he is in that any other time.

The fact that Al who is in the same area as those guys shows he isn't challenging shots. Those guys, other than Boogie, are leading in blocked shots. This mean teams will go away from them cutting the number of chances they have to contest. Why would you go away from Al? He doesn't block shots at a high rate. You wouldn't so the explanation is they don't have to because Al is not there to contest anyway.

[BeesWax]

I think we totally agree here. We need to be giving up midrange shots, not pulling out our centers to contest them so we have wide open lanes to the basket.

Well you complained about him getting lit up by Speights but this is what happened. He helped defend the paint and the elbow jumper killed us. I like him being down low but teams are working at getting him out of there. We need centers who can do a little of both. I will admit when Al leaves the lane it is a layup because he is basically a second screener he is so slow but he still needs to try harder. He doesn't move at all and gives up to many uncontested shots. Biz has to get credit for all his hustle. He contested a number of Speights jumpers despite trying to recover from the lane where he was helping defend the rim against a potential drive.

Fair point about Speights generally, though I totally dispute that Biz contested them in any way, not my recollection at all. Even if that is true, I'd think that after, I don't know, 10 consecutive points that maybe you make the obvious adjustment and not leave him off screens. How crazy is it that we could've stolen a game from GSW where our defense did a pretty great job and then **** Marreese Speights was the one that took us down.

Speights lit Al up too. Al would not leave the lane so he got wide open jumpers. It was a game where we missed MKG and Williams. It would have been better to have Williams on Barnes and Zeller on Speights or MKG on Barnes and Zeller on Speights. Without those two we were forced to play Al and Biz on what is really a PF and he lit us up.

By the definition of contested in these case I would say at least half qualified for Biz even if it didn't influence the shot. He was within the range when Speights released the ball but it had little to do to stop it.

[yosemiteben]

The fact that Al who is in the same area as those guys shows he isn't challenging shots.

So the high volume he is recorded as defending against shows he isn't contesting shots, but the low percentage shows that...guys randomly suck at making uncontested shots against him?

Do you not see the twisted logic you have to apply to take the simple facts that (1) Al has the most shots taken against him from 5 to 9 feet among all centers, and (2) Al holds those shots to 34.9%, and then come to the conclusion that he is terrible at defending shots in that range?

[BeesWax]

The fact that Al who is in the same area as those guys shows he isn't challenging shots.

So the high volume he is recorded as defending against shows he isn't contesting shots, but the low percentage shows that...guys randomly suck at making uncontested shots against him?

Do you not see the twisted logic you have to apply to take the simple facts that (1) Al has the most shots taken against him from 5 to 9 feet among all centers, and (2) Al holds those shots to 34.9%, and then come to the conclusion that he is terrible at defending shots in that range?

I am saying the volume is not as high as you would suggest. You are comparing him to guys who people do not like to shoot against. Those other teams face less shots from that range while those guys are in because people don't like to shoot against them. When Jefferson is in the game people attack the rim and score 66% of the time against us. They also destroy us at the 15 and out area while Al is in. So maybe you are right and the only area he is a positive influence for us on defense is 5-9.

[Vanderbilt_Grad]

I was at the GSW game and my (possibly faulty) memory is that Al did a better job against Speights than anyone else did. Biz seemed to be the worst mostly because he wanted to be in the paint and wouldn't commit fully to defending Speights as he drifted away from that area. This is one where re-watching the game tape might be interesting. Is there a site out there that might have the stats for shots taken & FG% vs specific defenders?

What really bugged me in game watching Al that night was the **** pick and roll. Al's "picks" were some of the worst I've seen.

[LamarMatic7]

I was at the GSW game and my (possibly faulty) memory is that Al did a better job against Speights than anyone else did. Biz seemed to be the worst mostly because he wanted to be in the paint and wouldn't commit fully to defending Speights as he drifted away from that area.

I think I'll have some stuff on this on Thursday.

This is one where re-watching the game tape might be interesting. Is there a site out there that might have the stats for shots taken & FG% vs specific defenders?

This might come in handy:

http://nbasavant.com/shot_search.php - just add Speights as your player and Charlotte as the opposing team

[BeesWax]

I was at the GSW game and my (possibly faulty) memory is that Al did a better job against Speights than anyone else did. Biz seemed to be the worst mostly because he wanted to be in the paint and wouldn't commit fully to defending Speights as he drifted away from that area.

I think I'll have some stuff on this on Thursday.

This is one where re-watching the game tape might be interesting. Is there a site out there that might have the stats for shots taken & FG% vs specific defenders?

This might come in handy:

http://nbasavant.com/shot_search.php - just add Speights as your player and Charlotte as the opposing team

Looks like he was 8-14 against Biz and 5-7 against Al. Then you look at distance and some of those these guys were to far away to influence but it was there man I guess. Neither guy wanted to leave the paint it appears which goes back to the point of why not use Cody as our center during this stretch since he is more likely to follow him outside.

[Vanderbilt_Grad]

I'll grant you the % ... but my feeling was that Speights simply shot less with Al guarding him. He might get the ball and then pass instead of shooting or he might simply not get the pass since he wasn't open.

[BeesWax]

I'll grant you the % ... but my feeling was that Speights simply shot less with Al guarding him. He might get the ball and then pass instead of shooting or he might simply not get the pass since he wasn't open.

I believe if I remember correctly Speights and Al only overlapped for like 10 minutes or so. I do not recall Biz ever matching up with Bogut so his 24 would have been against Al leaving just 10 for Al vs Speights. Now if you break it down to just the 4th quarter where he really torched us 6 shots were on Biz and 5 on Al. When he got hot it did not seem to matter who was on the court he was going to shoot.

[thruthefire]

Anyone have a breakdown of our pick-and-roll stats?

[EwingSweatsALot]

So with this revolution of analytics in basketball it has become common knowledge that the two most important parts on the court are in or around the restricted area and behind the three point line. If you do well on offense here you tend to be a good offense and if you tend to defend well in these areas you have a good defense. Because I am a masochist I decided to see just how horrendous we are on offense and defense on these parts of the court.

Defense

-Teams shoot 65.5% in the Restricted Area against us. 3rd worst in the league.
-Teams shoot 36.5% from 3 against us. That is 22nd in the league.
-Combining those two opponents are shooting 51.3%. 23rd in the league.
-I decided to take a look at point per attempt. It is 1.2 points per attempt in these areas. 4th worst in the league.

We are off to a wonderful start so far in making me hate this team even more. Maybe the offense can make me feel better.

Offense

-We shoot 56.7% inside the restricted area. 5th worst in the league.
-We shoot 32.5% behind the 3 point line. 4th worst in the league.
-The combined percentage is a wonderful 46.2%. 5th worst.
-We score 1.06 points per attempt in this area. Good for the 3rd worst in the NBA.

ESAL's Analysis

-Combine this with my last post about the 4th quarter and how we are 1-6 in games when we lead at the end of the 3th quarter I have analyzed that this team sucks ass and I hate them.

Fun things of note

-Golden State is 2nd best in points per attempt allowed and the best in points per attempt.
-Minnesota is an astonishing 1.31 points per attempt allowed. 2nd worst in the league is at 1.22.
-The Houston Rockets who live and die by this strategy only score 1.10 points per attempt. 7th worst in the league. They are allowing only 1.04 in these spots which is 3rd best in the league. Really different from last year.

[yosemiteben]

I have analyzed that this team sucks ass and I hate them.

It really is bizarre - you look at the offensive stats and see that they are terrible and you assume that surely we must be compensating for that on defense. Then you look at our defensive stats and find out we're just as bad.

I agree that this team has lost its identity. Given that defense is about effort, I think Clifford is right to focus on that side of the ball. At times last season we had a swagger on D that I think is completely gone.

Hurry back MKG.

[EwingSweatsALot]

I'll also add to my previous post that we are dead last in point per attempt differential in these areas at -0.14. Golden State is an astounding +0.23 which is 0.1 higher than second place, the Washington Wizards.

[LamarMatic7]

-Teams shoot 65.5% in the Restricted Area against us. 3rd worst in the league.

fantastic. The T-Pups have been even worse than us and have taken over the first (or rather last) place in this ranking.