2025 General Draft Discussion 2

[fatlever]

https://www.reddit.com/r/NBA_Draft/comments/1la0ozi/jonathan_givony_on_the_2025_nba_draft_duncd_on/

this is a much better recap than mine

"Interesting how they both have Ace as the clear #3. If Givonys belief in Aces ability to improve his feel for the game is correct, that changes his outlook. He said that Ace didn’t even know basic terminology in their conversations early in the season, but his knowledge of the game improved immensely since.

Narratively this does make sense considering that Ace is the only top guy who came from a public school rather than elite prep schools like Montverde, Link Academy, Long Island Lutheran, etc. Over his first 14 games, he put up a horrific 10 assists and 30 turnovers. Over his last 16 games, he had 28 assists and 31 turnovers. That stretch is pretty similar from an AST:TO perspective to guys like Tatum, Ingram, (freshman) PG, etc. Interesting to consider.

Other Notes: 1. They both thought Kon had star potential and would be at least an average defender given his strength, motor, and off-ball IQ. He could absolutely sneak into the top 5. 2. Their take on Khaman Maluach was interesting too. Didn’t think he had the athleticism or feel to ever be a top 5 rim protector but believed in his switchability and potential to stretch the floor given his form at the hoop summit. Also said he had a “larger than life” personality that captivates the room (along with VJ Edgecombe) which is cool to hear about. 3. Duncan is low on VJ and didn’t see star potential from his college film. Givony agreed the college film was disappointing but said he saw star potential in his play with the Bahamas. Givony thinks he might be able to run the point, which changes his outlook a ton for me. Interestingly they both thought his motor was overrated and that he wasn’t there defensively (yet). 4. They agreed Tre Johnson’s motor and rebounding were pathetic but said he has potential to be an average defender given his overall work ethic and physical tools. They said he does seem to care, in comparison to Cam Thomas who Givony said, from their conversations while he was in college, “did not give a ****” lol. They expressed concern that Tre’s lack of strength and inability to blow by guys would prevent him from being an offensive superstar. 5. They liked Fears (Duncan has him #4) but agreed he will be horrible his first 2-3 years in the league. Recommended him for teams looking to tank for AJ Dybantsa or Darryn Peterson. Said he had one of the best handles of any prospect this decade."

[Bassman]

Thanks for that Fats. Their comments on Fears make sense, and gives me concern if the Hornets draft him. If he is 2 to 3 years away from being good (and not good early) we’re digging a bigger hole than this team can manage.

So many analysts are strong on KNip. Either they are really overestimating his ability to play solid defense, or the guy is just better than many on our forum project. I do feel myself placing him over Tre, who appears to be weak on many levels other than shooting. VJ looking less like a future star, Ace could be but all those questions (small hands now…yikes).

Clearly another tier forms below Harper, who the Hornets should be trying to trade up for.

[MasterIchiro]

Harper should be the Hornets #1 target but if the price is restrictive, definitely pivot to the player with the most upside outside the top-2. Fears.

[JMAC3]

My Hornets specific Big Board
1. Flagg- Duh-- not possible to trade up for.
2. Harper- Yup-- would really think over multiple trade ups.

3. Ace Bailey- 3rd best player in draft, gives us flexibility because he will be able to play 2-4 in different lineups and keeps our roster fluid moving forward, similar to how Miller has. If we believe Charles Lee is the right coach, then you have to be willing to take swings like this and trust your staff. Instead of defaulting to being scared of old Hornets outcomes. I think eventually he could play the 4 with more weight, similar to Tatum, he is a good rebounder. Also, not many teams have the size to defend Miller, Ace and Miles in their starting lineup, 1-2 should have mismatches every night.

4. Tre Johnson- 29th in offensive rating last year, gives us arguably the best scorer in the draft. Lead the country in scoring this year among freshman and can do it with the ball or off the ball which is exciting for a team that has had injuries and you never know what role you need to play that night. Landing him to pair with Melo and Miller in backcourt could give the team enough scoring flexibility to safely move on from Miles Bridges and replace that spot with a bigger defender. Fits our current team of trying to launch 50 threes a night.

5. VJ Edgecombe- a good mix of talent and fit. He can fill a big hole on the roster is a perimeter defender and take on the opponents best guard leaving Melo to hide on the other. Offensively he projects more as a guy that will score with hustle, transition and mostly open catch and shoot jumpers. Better prospect than Josh Green, but stylistically they are probably not too far off in year 1. High character guy and gives us some needed juice in the athleticism department.

6. Jeremiah Fears- The best player at getting to rim period in this class. He is 18 yrs old. He is a foul magnet. Shooting projects much better than what he showed this year from a raw percentage (grenades, shots off dribble, deep attempts) his free throw percentage is awesome and his catch and shot numbers are very strong. Fit is a bit iffy, but having an elite driver of the basketball is the best way to create three pointers and high percentage looks at the rim. IMO a great fit with current 4 starters, Mark getting another drive and lob thrower should make him even better on offense. Gives us LaMelo injury insurance, Tre Mann leaving in FA insurance and we lack guys that consistently get fouled.

7. Khaman Maluach- Big riser because of fit, I have Kasparas, Queen and Bryant over him in a vacuum. However, with current makeup of Charlotte lineup I think Maluach is an easier fit with that group and it would signal a clean up at the center position with Mark Williams probably moving on elsewhere. With Melo you likely need a big rim protector and lob threat to maximize him on both ends and while I believe Mark still provides that, the relationship might be too far damaged. Would reset the clock on center salary, which should give us more flexibility in the future.

[fatlever]

top 14 as of june 13

flagg
----- -> could almost put a blank tier between flagg/harper
harper
----- -> and almost another blank tier between harper/vj
vj
----- -> kon/tre pretty much interchangeable for me right now, would lean kon because i trust his defense more
kon
tre
------ -> cant let ace drop further despite my concerns, too much talent
ace
------ -> trade back tier
maluach
jaku
queen
------
cmb
bryant
fears
noa
-----
demin

[Snidely FC]

ESPN 2025 Draft Superlatives
Best Handle: Fears
Best PnR Playmaker: Jak
Best PnR Finisher: Kalkbrenner
Best Pull-Up Shooter: Ace
Best Leaper: VJ
Best Frame: Carter Bryant
Best Spot Up Shooter: Kon
Best Movement Shooter: Tre
Best On-Ball Defender: Drake Powell
Best Off Ball Defender: CMB
Best Defensive Playmaker: Adou Thiero
Best Motor: Hugo Gonzalez
More: https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/45506725/2025-nba-draft-superlatives-skills-traits-best-players-shooting-defense-more

[fatlever]

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[JMAC3]

Read on Twitter

Honestly not a great measurement for weight, taller than Ace but lighter.

[fatlever]

Watch on YouTube

;t=3280s

sam goes deep. good section on kon

[fatlever]

https://www.reddit.com/r/NBA_Draft/comments/1lbl76z/2025_epm_draft_model_board/

if anyone has interest in very epm heavy model rankings. he has 2024 as well. had tiddy at 45. lol.

[amcoolio]

So this is a great video and really relevant

https://youtu.be/tua9COy2_A0?si=xHwqKeqGDKiZA50_

Watch on YouTube

[Diop]

So this is a great video and really relevant

https://youtu.be/tua9COy2_A0?si=xHwqKeqGDKiZA50_

Watch on YouTube

i enjoyed it, but the takeaway is that its more of a gamble than ever. they mentioned some obvious mistakes people can make, but it didn't give any idea on how to pick the right player.

how do you predict that invisible "it" factor which makes a player great. who knows

[Bassman]

So this is a great video and really relevant

https://youtu.be/tua9COy2_A0?si=xHwqKeqGDKiZA50_

Watch on YouTube

Indeed, everyone should see this video. It is amazing how poorly the overall draft classes are trending in producing real contributors overall compared to years ago, even with the abundance of data available to front offices. The host breaks it down really well.

Here’s what I get the most from it:

1. Don’t count on players developing major jumps in skills or athleticism later on. Yes they can improve, some, but it won’t be much and it won’t likely be enough to justify a reach based on such assumptions. Players are in such good shape now they’ve pretty much arrived. Get stronger…probably; a tad quicker…maybe. If someone isn’t a shooter already, forget about it.

2. FEEL…the most difficult intangible to measure, but possibly the key to a player transforming into a major player. Where does it come from? Character, personality traits like dedication, hard work, relentless desire to achieve, constant hustle, willingness to study and learn the game, is that feel? It sets the table for it, but feel goes beyond that. Watch the video and his breakdown of a guard who was comped to allay Thompson, but emerged with a different game, but as an all-star.

He also highlights how scouts and teams get caught up in the measurables, in “confirmation bias” based upon the accepted rankings.

IMO this video explanation helps me confirm, in part, why OKC and Indy are in the finals. They have drafted and traded well, despite not generally picking at the top most recent years. They identify players who can contribute with proven skills, have dedication to excellence and a relentless drive to achieve.

The Hornets talk about getting the right players (character, intelligence, attitude). I agree. They reached horribly for Salaun, because they felt he fit those key characteristics. I don’t doubt he does. But they OVERESTIMATED his ability to improve and develop his skill set, despite the major gaps in those clearly evident. That can’t happen again, cause this team is sunk with any further draft disasters.

What players exhibit the best combination of all three: CHARACTER, FEEL FOR THE GAME, AND PROVEN QUALITY SKILLS (aside from Flagg)? For me it would seem to be Harper (trade up would be worth giving up an extra 1st and a second rounder), based as much on his broad sets plus the pedigree. I don’t really know how much he burns to be great, nor his work ethic dedication, but his feel for the game seems star level. After Harper, it’s VJ or Kon. Both seem to have the driven desire, effort and character. VJ better athleticism, Kon better FEEL, which may ultimately make him better.

[Chapelchilla]

So this is a great video and really relevant

https://youtu.be/tua9COy2_A0?si=xHwqKeqGDKiZA50_

Watch on YouTube

Indeed, everyone should see this video. It is amazing how poorly the overall draft classes are trending in producing real contributors overall compared to years ago, even with the abundance of data available to front offices. The host breaks it down really well.

Here’s what I get the most from it:

1. Don’t count on players developing major jumps in skills or athleticism later on. Yes they can improve, some, but it won’t be much and it won’t likely be enough to justify a reach based on such assumptions. Players are in such good shape now they’ve pretty much arrived. Get stronger…probably; a tad quicker…maybe. If someone isn’t a shooter already, forget about it.

2. FEEL…the most difficult intangible to measure, but possibly the key to a player transforming into a major player. Where does it come from? Character, personality traits like dedication, hard work, relentless desire to achieve, constant hustle, willingness to study and learn the game, is that feel? It sets the table for it, but feel goes beyond that. Watch the video and his breakdown of a guard who was comped to allay Thompson, but emerged with a different game, but as an all-star.

He also highlights how scouts and teams get caught up in the measurables, in “confirmation bias” based upon the accepted rankings.

IMO this video explanation helps me confirm, in part, why OKC and Indy are in the finals. They have drafted and traded well, despite not generally picking at the top most recent years. They identify players who can contribute with proven skills, have dedication to excellence and a relentless drive to achieve.

The Hornets talk about getting the right players (character, intelligence, attitude). I agree. They reached horribly for Salaun, because they felt he fit those key characteristics. I don’t doubt he does. But they OVERESTIMATED his ability to improve and develop his skill set, despite the major gaps in those clearly evident. That can’t happen again, cause this team is sunk with any further draft disasters.

What players exhibit the best combination of all three: CHARACTER, FEEL FOR THE GAME, AND PROVEN QUALITY SKILLS (aside from Flagg)? For me it would seem to be Harper (trade up would be worth giving up an extra 1st and a second rounder), based as much on his broad sets plus the pedigree. I don’t really know how much he burns to be great, nor his work ethic dedication, but his feel for the game seems star level. After Harper, it’s VJ or Kon. Both seem to have the driven desire, effort and character. VJ better athleticism, Kon better FEEL, which may ultimately make him better.

Good analysis. We have had high measurable disappointments galore (Kai, Vonleh, Bouknight etc)
Winning players are inportant too.
I like Harper despite the losing, then VJ, Kon and Tre in that order.

[fatlever]

Watching the game theory mock draft with Sam right now and they just executed a terrible trade for the Hornets.
4 and okogie
for
6 and kispert

Maybe because I really love okogie, But who knows if he'll even survive the summer. And I recognize we need shooters and we did try to trade for Dalton so kispert Can basically fill that bench shooter role, but ugh...
vj went 3rd, So at least we wouldn't be losing out on my number one draft target. And we'd still get one oface, tre, kon at 6... but... I would need more from The Wizards to move back in that scenario.

update
ace went 4, kon 5 (Bryce's original idea was to trade back to 6 and get kon). Hornets take tre at 6.

melo, kispert, miller, tre -> Serious power from deep though

[Diop]

So this is a great video and really relevant

https://youtu.be/tua9COy2_A0?si=xHwqKeqGDKiZA50_

Watch on YouTube

Indeed, everyone should see this video. It is amazing how poorly the overall draft classes are trending in producing real contributors overall compared to years ago, even with the abundance of data available to front offices. The host breaks it down really well.

Here’s what I get the most from it:

1. Don’t count on players developing major jumps in skills or athleticism later on. Yes they can improve, some, but it won’t be much and it won’t likely be enough to justify a reach based on such assumptions. Players are in such good shape now they’ve pretty much arrived. Get stronger…probably; a tad quicker…maybe. If someone isn’t a shooter already, forget about it.

2. FEEL…the most difficult intangible to measure, but possibly the key to a player transforming into a major player. Where does it come from? Character, personality traits like dedication, hard work, relentless desire to achieve, constant hustle, willingness to study and learn the game, is that feel? It sets the table for it, but feel goes beyond that. Watch the video and his breakdown of a guard who was comped to allay Thompson, but emerged with a different game, but as an all-star.

He also highlights how scouts and teams get caught up in the measurables, in “confirmation bias” based upon the accepted rankings.

IMO this video explanation helps me confirm, in part, why OKC and Indy are in the finals. They have drafted and traded well, despite not generally picking at the top most recent years. They identify players who can contribute with proven skills, have dedication to excellence and a relentless drive to achieve.

The Hornets talk about getting the right players (character, intelligence, attitude). I agree. They reached horribly for Salaun, because they felt he fit those key characteristics. I don’t doubt he does. But they OVERESTIMATED his ability to improve and develop his skill set, despite the major gaps in those clearly evident. That can’t happen again, cause this team is sunk with any further draft disasters.

What players exhibit the best combination of all three: CHARACTER, FEEL FOR THE GAME, AND PROVEN QUALITY SKILLS (aside from Flagg)? For me it would seem to be Harper (trade up would be worth giving up an extra 1st and a second rounder), based as much on his broad sets plus the pedigree. I don’t really know how much he burns to be great, nor his work ethic dedication, but his feel for the game seems star level. After Harper, it’s VJ or Kon. Both seem to have the driven desire, effort and character. VJ better athleticism, Kon better FEEL, which may ultimately make him better.

the feel part is why I wanted Sengun, but again it can be tough to pin point who has "feel" and who doesn't.

i value iq and the types, but when you doing the crap shoot of drafting, you get why little advantages like size give people the edge.
brian scalabrine always looked like he had a great feel for the game.

[Rich4114]

Watching the game theory mock draft with Sam right now and they just executed a terrible trade for the Hornets.
4 and okogie
for
6 and kispert

Maybe because I really love okogie, But who knows if he'll even survive the summer. And I recognize we need shooters and we did try to trade for Dalton so kispert Can basically fill that bench shooter role, but ugh...
vj went 3rd, So at least we wouldn't be losing out on my number one draft target. And we'd still get one oface, tre, kon at 6... but... I would need more from The Wizards to move back in that scenario.

update
ace went 4, kon 5 (Bryce's original idea was to trade back to 6 and get kon). Hornets take tre at 6.

melo, kispert, miller, tre -> Serious power from deep though

Watched this myself last night and had similar thoughts. I originally thought they did it for 6 + Kispert + 18 in exchange for Okogie and 4. I would do that, I'd throw them our 2nd's too in that scenario to get it done.

I only do this if VJ goes 3 of course, but if we could walk away with Kispert/Kon or Tre + someone like Essengue, Fears (if he drops), Penda, CMB, Jase, etc. at 18... what a shift in talent that does for us.

[JMAC3]

Read on Twitter

[JMAC3]

Watching the game theory mock draft with Sam right now and they just executed a terrible trade for the Hornets.
4 and okogie
for
6 and kispert

Maybe because I really love okogie, But who knows if he'll even survive the summer. And I recognize we need shooters and we did try to trade for Dalton so kispert Can basically fill that bench shooter role, but ugh...
vj went 3rd, So at least we wouldn't be losing out on my number one draft target. And we'd still get one oface, tre, kon at 6... but... I would need more from The Wizards to move back in that scenario.

update
ace went 4, kon 5 (Bryce's original idea was to trade back to 6 and get kon). Hornets take tre at 6.

melo, kispert, miller, tre -> Serious power from deep though

Adding both Kispert and Kon makes no sense.

[wilson115]

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