Leap Year - The Kemba Walker Thread III

[DY_nasty]

Who would be considered a decent 3-point shooter on this year's roster (other than the small sample of Mo Williams), never mind if it's a shooting guard or not? The only player I came up with is Marvin Williams at 37% from beyond the arc

Last year we had Josh McRoberts (36%), Anthony Tolliver (41%), and Chris Douglas-Roberts (39%). Even Neal came in late in the season to shoot 40 3P% in a somewhat small sample size of 22 games

Douglas-Roberts w/ Kemba & MKG (11 games, 8-3 record): 114.7 OffRtg, 97.0 DefRtg = +17.6 NetRtg

Guys would shoot a lot better if we weren't in love with off the dribble 3pt shots as a team...

The offenses issues go far, far beyond 3pt shooting though.

Did the numbers lie or something? Your rebuttal doesn't answer anything besides your counterfactual opinion

Eh..... straight up FG% is one thing - but I'm specifically talking about the type of shots that our guys are taking and the type of shots that our offense is built on.

ORTG isn't really addressing what I'm talking about.

[catch20two]

Lol

[DY_nasty]

Lol

You guys do realize that off the dribble shots are simply all types of bad unless you've got the best of the best shooting them right? We take a massive amount of off the dribble/pull up shots. ORTG has nothing to do with that at all. ORTG also is skewed towards guys who aren't volume shooters as well.

Its kind of like people talking about ppg and usage - then bringing up on/off stats. There's a lot of things that come into play before you start putting one directly against the other.

[BeesWax]

Lol

You guys do realize that off the dribble shots are simply all types of bad unless you've got the best of the best shooting them right? We take a massive amount of off the dribble/pull up shots. ORTG has nothing to do with that at all. ORTG also is skewed towards guys who aren't volume shooters as well.

Its kind of like people talking about ppg and usage - then bringing up on/off stats. There's a lot of things that come into play before you start putting one directly against the other.

Williams is really the only set shot taker we have that plays. PJ and Daniels can do it too. Kemba and Hendo like to put the ball on the floor first. Hendo always catches the ball behind the three point line then dribbles into the lane to get in his range. This is giving defenses a chance to recover. Kemba is better set but often does not get a ton of those looks in games.

[yosemiteben]

I don't know what would most help Kemba's game. I think he is still my favorite player on this team and I'd be bummed if we traded him, but I totally get the frustration with him and honestly I don't know how to make it better. The way he played at the beginning of the 2015 was unsustainable (his usage was insane), there has got to be a way for him to have a lesser role in the offense but still score efficiently.

Maybe the right answer is to have him dominate portions of games. Against DET he went off in the first quarter, and I think if he's hot we go to him because he's pretty unstoppable one on one when he's feeling it. I'm not convinced it's just a matter of adding a shooting SG, it's not like Kemba is facing a lot of doubles or heavy pressure on the perimeter all the time. Maybe it's a ball movement thing, maybe it's an open the lane thing, but Kambe has not shown the ability to consistently knock down open shots so I don't really buy blaming it all on Cliff or Al.

I think it's a combination of a lot of things. Because of that, I don't think there's a clear solution.

[DY_nasty]

Lol

You guys do realize that off the dribble shots are simply all types of bad unless you've got the best of the best shooting them right? We take a massive amount of off the dribble/pull up shots. ORTG has nothing to do with that at all. ORTG also is skewed towards guys who aren't volume shooters as well.

Its kind of like people talking about ppg and usage - then bringing up on/off stats. There's a lot of things that come into play before you start putting one directly against the other.

Williams is really the only set shot taker we have that plays. PJ and Daniels can do it too. Kemba and Hendo like to put the ball on the floor first. Hendo always catches the ball behind the three point line then dribbles into the lane to get in his range. This is giving defenses a chance to recover. Kemba is better set but often does not get a ton of those looks in games.

That's on coaching (and guys listening to coaching but that's another topic altogether). Henderson though... its strange watching his development over the years because he was really efficient off-ball player and a PGs best friend curling for that 18ft shot. He's just completely moved away from that and turned into what we see today. Henderson was better at catch and shoot play than anything else but we either allow him to do his own thing or we put him in a position to. I think that applies to a lot of players on the team. Gary Neal was another example of a guy that was efficient doing one thing - but preferred or was put in a position to play differently.

Again, there's a bunch of small things that had big effects on our offense between this year and last year. Some of that can't be helped (Al's complete inability to move most nights makes it entirely too easy for defenses to essentially play zone and man at the same time lol), some of it is personnel (I sincerely think that Kemba playing off of Diaw and McBob may have hindered his development when it comes to creating/pushing a fluid offense on his own), some of it is the players own fault (Cody is too smart and too athletic to be as by-the-book as he is. I hate how unassertive and unselfish he is at times), and some of it is the coach (instead of coaching what to do, clifford is adamant about coaching what not to do - we emphasize not turning the ball over instead of coaching what to actually to do with the ball).

The shooters though... there's a lot to it. Even if we were to insert good shooters, they'd have an issue getting clean looks in this offense because opposing defenses are allowed to sit on them as our ball handlers, passing, and off-ball movement is predictable, bad, and generally redundant or ineffective.

[catch20two]

If offensive rating and percentages don't count to prove that we play well with a SG between MKG and Kemba that know his role is to spot up and shoot 3s like CDR did last year then I don't know what else applies. Don't need a star SG between them, just a willing participant, but a star SG could help take us to that next level.

[tondi123]

We definitely need a catch and shoot guy who doesn't feel the need to dribble around in circles and engage in even more ball stopping than we already have among the starters. If they can defend their way out of a paper bag then that's just a bonus.

[fatlever]

Lowe with two Kemba tweets this morning - Kemba got lit up in the subtweets

[tweet]https://twitter.com/ZachLowe_NBA/status/587942413785763840[/tweet]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/ZachLowe_NBA/status/587945692733276160[/tweet]

Marc Whittington ‏@MWhittington13 3h3 hours ago

@ZachLowe_NBA Kemba Walker is owed $48 million over the next 4 years. Not great, Bob.

Ulrik T. Sydnes ‏@Ulrik_TS 3h3 hours ago

@ZachLowe_NBA And his TS% has been in decline since '12-13. Remarkably stable at 17 ppg though.

Mike G ‏@MikeGGibbons 3h3 hours ago

@ZachLowe_NBA he's going to need to follow that Monta career arc

Zac Lee ‏@Zaclee_nyc 2h2 hours ago

@Ulrik_TS More shots. Isn't a great passer either. Ricky Rubio is even worse shooting-wise but at least he's a tough defender & elite passer

t_o_dizzle ‏@t_o_dizzle 4h4 hours ago

@ZachLowe_NBA Kemba is also hurt by consistently awful shot selection. Never met a step back fadeaway jumper he didn't like

Forde Britt ‏@fordebritt 2h2 hours ago

@ZachLowe_NBA but, hey, let's give him 4/48! <head/table> would rather have Mo

[JDR720]

Kemba is dangerously close to becoming Brandon Jennings with intangibles.

[yosemiteben]

What's also interesting is that Kemba's net rating on D tanked this year. Last season he was a net -6.2 on D, this season he is a net +5.1.

This year he has a DRPM of -1.75, which is ranked 52nd among PGs and 370th overall. Last season he had a DRPM of 0.79, the 10th highest among PGs and well above league average.

[LamarMatic7]

What's also interesting is that Kemba's net rating on D tanked this year. Last season he was a net -6.2 on D, this season he is a net +5.1.

This year he has a DRPM of -1.75, which is ranked 52nd among PGs and 370th overall. Last season he had a DRPM of 0.79, the 10th highest among PGs and well above league average.

Doing a huge season write-up on each player (hopefully I have the time for it). Kemba's piece is likely to contain a lot on his defense. I'm sure that if I included every single time Kemba fell asleep on defense and his assignment took advantage of it (usually by the way of a back-door cut) that I could create a five minute long montage. He had a lot of slip-ups on that end. Haven't yet decided whether it's worthy to spend my free time this way since I'm pressed for time.

[Liver_Pooty]

Lowe with two Kemba tweets this morning - Kemba got lit up in the subtweets

[tweet]https://twitter.com/ZachLowe_NBA/status/587942413785763840[/tweet]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/ZachLowe_NBA/status/587945692733276160[/tweet]

Marc Whittington ‏@MWhittington13 3h3 hours ago

@ZachLowe_NBA Kemba Walker is owed $48 million over the next 4 years. Not great, Bob.

Ulrik T. Sydnes ‏@Ulrik_TS 3h3 hours ago

@ZachLowe_NBA And his TS% has been in decline since '12-13. Remarkably stable at 17 ppg though.

Mike G ‏@MikeGGibbons 3h3 hours ago

@ZachLowe_NBA he's going to need to follow that Monta career arc

Zac Lee ‏@Zaclee_nyc 2h2 hours ago

@Ulrik_TS More shots. Isn't a great passer either. Ricky Rubio is even worse shooting-wise but at least he's a tough defender & elite passer

t_o_dizzle ‏@t_o_dizzle 4h4 hours ago

@ZachLowe_NBA Kemba is also hurt by consistently awful shot selection. Never met a step back fadeaway jumper he didn't like

Forde Britt ‏@fordebritt 2h2 hours ago

@ZachLowe_NBA but, hey, let's give him 4/48! <head/table> would rather have Mo

It's an issue, folks.

[tondi123]

This year Kemba played like a guy who just got paid. Out of all the things I have worried about with regards to paying him big money, the last thing I expected was for him to suddenly stop giving a crap as soon as he got that big pile of money. Didn't think he was that kind of guy but so far thats exactly the kind of guy hes looking like. Maybe after an offseason of spending that money he will decide to try at basketball again. Or maybe hes one of those guys who will coast for 3 years and then suddenly "figure things out" in his next contract year.

[fatlever]

Kemba's numbers since returning from injury have been atrocious. Post all-star break
14ppg, 3rpb, 5apg, .348% FG

Rank these factors from 1 to 10 in terms of how much you think they played a role in Kemba's poor numbers

he wasn't healthy
Clifford's system
no help on roster
sharing time with Mo
not motivated due to most likely missing playoffs
got paid, lost motivation
just not very good

[DY_nasty]

I honestly don't think he knows the difference between a good shot and a bad one. Nor does he understand the need to use clock efficiently - these last couple of games the ball just stays with him for longer than some teams' entire possessions. A lot of it is self-inflicted... I don't even think he's a horrible shooter anymore. I just think he's got the worst shot selection of any starting PG not named Zach Lavine. Kemba routinely puts himself in horrible positions to take shots then doesn't understand why the shot isn't falling.

[HornetJail]

What part of Kemba's season made you think he was coasting? The guy played his ass off. Struggled shooting in November, went nuts and played like a legit All-Star in December and January, got injured in January, and then struggled after returning in March, by which time the entire team was injured and floundering.

You guys think a guy like Kyle Lowry, Jeff Teague, Deron Williams, Brandon Jennings, Isaiah Thomas, Brandon Knight, or Eric Bledsoe would've played any better in Kemba's place this season? With Al, Hendo, and Lance all getting in each others' way, eating shot clocks, playing lackadaisically, and not shooting well? I think every single one of them would struggle to keep their shooting percentages over 40% with this squad.

Steph Curry is the only PG in the NBA that I think could shoot 45% from the field with a roster like this one. I don't think prime Nash could get 8 assists a game on this team. Our offense is a complete trainwreck. It's predictable, easily defended, and just not that good. It's horrible. Kemba isn't blame-free- that jumper needs work, and he does need to clean up his shot selection, but I'm still convinced that Kemba will thrive in an offense where the floor is more spread out and defenses can't pack the paint.

Vonleh is looking like a pretty good shooter- I want him and Biz starting together next season regardless of what Zeller has done this year. Biz doesn't draw defensive attention to the paint, Vonleh will draw defensive attention out to the 3-point line. I'd love to see MKG add a half-decent corner three, but the real change needs to come from the other wing- Hendo doesn't provide spacing, Lance provides negative spacing if he can't shoot. THIS. TEAM. NEEDS. A. SHOOTER. AT. THE. SHOOTING. GUARD. POSITION. NEXT. TO. KEMBA. Whether it's Hezonja, Dekker, Booker, Hield, or whoever in the draft, or some guy we pick up from free agency (Dunleavy? CDR? Afflalo? Matthews? Gerald Green?) we better have a damn good shooter starting with Kemba next year. This non-jump-shooting backcourt bull has gone on way too long.

[HornetJail]

Kemba's numbers since returning from injury have been atrocious. Post all-star break
14ppg, 3rpb, 5apg, .348% FG

Rank these factors from 1 to 10 in terms of how much you think they played a role in Kemba's poor numbers

Where 1 is least important, and 10 is most?

he wasn't healthy - 4 - he looked alright physically, but definitely not 100%- results were almost identical to how he showed after last year's injury

Clifford's system - 8 - on offense? we had a system on offense? I thought our offense was to just **** around and throw it to Kemba with 5 on the shot clock

no help on roster - 9 - like I've said, there aren't many point guards that would post decent averages on this team from mid-March onwards- or really at any point during the season. We have no offense, and our offensive weapons don't fit. At all.

sharing time with Mo - 3 - on paper, sharing time with Mo should've helped offensively. It didn't. whatever

not motivated due to most likely missing playoffs - 2 - it's never even crossed my mind that Kemba is unmotivated while the team is still in the mix. After we were eliminated and half the team is out with injury and the other half is in a funk? Kemba's been going through the motions for the last 5 games or so, and you can't really blame him. That's more than most of the team can say.

got paid, lost motivation - 1 - again, no.

just not very good - 4 - the jumper and shot selection need work, no doubt, but his performance this season has more to do with the poo-poo platter he has around him.

[HornetJail]

I honestly don't think he knows the difference between a good shot and a bad one. Nor does he understand the need to use clock efficiently - these last couple of games the ball just stays with him for longer than some teams' entire possessions. A lot of it is self-inflicted... I don't even think he's a horrible shooter anymore. I just think he's got the worst shot selection of any starting PG not named Zach Lavine. Kemba routinely puts himself in horrible positions to take shots then doesn't understand why the shot isn't falling.

So the other 4 players on the floor standing around with their thumbs up their asses, no ball movement, and no plan of attack, then kicking the ball back to Kemba with 5 seconds on the shot clock is called "Kemba putting himself in horrible positions"? Kemba's off-ball movement isn't phenomenal and his shot selection isn't CP3-like or anything, but this is unfair.

[tondi123]

To me, Kemba looked pretty disinterested the first month or two of the season. I seem to even remember him saying something about not being able to get his head in the game or something to that effect. Keeping in mind that the guy signed his huge contract right before the season started I found his newfound disinterest disturbing. He certainly did eventually snap out of it and had a nice stretch before getting hurt. Hopefully that will be the guy we get next year instead of the guy we had the first quarter of the season or the guy who came back from his injury and played the worst ball of his career. I do agree that there are many things higher on the list of things causing this team to suck than anything a healthy Kemba is or isn't doing.