Fried Chicken and Bonghits: The Al Jefferson Thread 2.0

[HornetJail]

16/8/3/1 in 30mpg with passable defense would be about perfect for Al this season.

That would probably get him $18M+ from somewhere next season

I think Al's days of getting big contracts are over. I get the salary cap is going up but the game is evolving away from what he does on offense and he's hardly additive on defense. 2011-2012 was the last year he had a significant impact on his team. In 2012-13 Utah was 7 points better when he sat. 2013-14 Charlotte was 3+ points better with him playing but that was for an average team and other guys had a bigger impact. Last year, Charlotte wasn't better or worse when he played. As a comparison, the team was 11 points better when MKG played

He turns 31 this year so I'd increasingly view Al as a specialist while Charlotte and the rest of the league gravitate more to PnR, shooting and paying for defensive wings. I'm not trying to be negative on Al it's just that time and style of play are working against him. Even with a good year, I think his market will be at best $10-12 million/year on a 2 year contract with the second year being team option.

Kanter got a max contract for being a bigger negative than Al was last year. Al will get paid.

[Mystical Apples]

That would probably get him $18M+ from somewhere next season

I think Al's days of getting big contracts are over. I get the salary cap is going up but the game is evolving away from what he does on offense and he's hardly additive on defense. 2011-2012 was the last year he had a significant impact on his team. In 2012-13 Utah was 7 points better when he sat. 2013-14 Charlotte was 3+ points better with him playing but that was for an average team and other guys had a bigger impact. Last year, Charlotte wasn't better or worse when he played. As a comparison, the team was 11 points better when MKG played

He turns 31 this year so I'd increasingly view Al as a specialist while Charlotte and the rest of the league gravitate more to PnR, shooting and paying for defensive wings. I'm not trying to be negative on Al it's just that time and style of play are working against him. Even with a good year, I think his market will be at best $10-12 million/year on a 2 year contract with the second year being team option.

Kanter got a max contract for being a bigger negative than Al was last year. Al will get paid.

He's 23 and there's a chance he grows into that dumb contract. Al will be on the other side of his career after proving during his prime he's not worth it. Big difference.

[Diop]

http://www.charlotteobserver.com/sports/nba/charlotte-hornets/article35821581.html

Apparently Al has lost 20 lbs by cutting out fried chicken.

cripes. i hope we don't resign him seeing he can only cut out fried chicken during contract years.

i think how strict some athletes are about their diet to get their bodies right and this guy is hoeing down buckets of fried chicken.

[Mystical Apples]

Here's an age/efficiency curve for NBA Centers. Depending on metrics used, Al peaked between 2011 and 2014 (his Offrtg last 4 years is 112, 109, 105, 101). Last year only 5 centers > 30 years played 25+ minutes and half the season, 4 if Chris Bosh is excluded. The remaining 4 (Nene, Gortat, Chandler, and Gasol) rated higher offensively than Al including Chandlers obscene 1.41 PPP in PnR (best in League).

Al's doing the right thing by losing weight, and Clifford can help Al by reducing his minutes. Both should help maintain efficiency and fight the curve, but this is what Clifford means when he says Al won't be the offensive focus.


source: nbaminer.com

[JDR720]

[Cheeze]

Al will try to get a Hendo-type deal with a smaller base and control over his second year. His agent may even be able to get a third year at team option with a salary-based incentive.

Contracts aren't allowed to be structured like that. You can't give him a player option in the 2nd year and then a team option in the 3rd year.

Options, whether player or team, can only be set in the final year of a contract, and only one option. So either player option, or team option, not both. Only pre-determined rookie scale contracts are allowed to have more than 1 option year. Al is certainly no rookie.

You can do a pseudo option using non-guaranteed years, but that still restricts the order of choice and control.

So you could have non-guaranteed 2nd and 3rd year with a 3rd year player option. That structure would approximate having a team option 2nd year and a player option 3rd year (since you can cut the player instead of keeping him the 2nd year).

But that wouldn't allow you to create the structure of giving Al control over the 2nd year and team option 3rd year. It would be the reverse, in terms of control, and the opposite of what your suggested contract structure aimed to provide Al in terms of control. Or perhaps I'm misconstruing your intent.

Oh, no, I'm fantastically ignorant and incorrect. Thanks for the thoughtful and informative reply.

I still wonder if Al won't somehow work a sliding scale to get a third year on the contract, or at least approach it from that perspective. He won't get a second year with a player option I don't think unless he makes it sweet for the team. A better structure may be a three year deal where Al can have the option to enter the market again in 2018 for his final contract. I have faith that Cho will get value in dealings with Al.

Or maybe I'm overthinking this. Probably. Likely. Actually. I hope Al blows up and takes the Hornets to the finals, where he then enters free agency and Atlanta signs him to a five year, eighty million dollar contract, leaving the Hornets to sign Al Horford for even money and return to the finals in 2017, where Horford blocks Kevin Love's desperate shot at the buzzer and the Hornets go on to Finals glory as World Champs. After which they'll be invited to the White House to play yard hoops with President Limbaugh.

That's my hope anyway. A boy can dream.

[CatgutStitches]

So, in preparation of NBA2k16 coming out this week I have begun to look at the trade machine and see what I can get for Al since I have no intention of resigning him. I was looking for some input on a few scenarios Ive come up with, as well as options anyone else would like to throw out since I know most people would love us to trade Al. Im ideally looking for someone who fits our team more in regards to style of play and age. Either a younger, better defensively, center or a solid PF and move Frank or Cody to C.

Option 1: Jefferson for Joachim Noah

Not an ideal situation for either team but it gives us a better interior defensive presence and gives them a better offensive option inside. Most people consider Noah the better player but hes struggled with injuries and Jefferson is well respected league-wide for what he does.

Option 2: Jefferson (+ possible draft pick sweetener) for Kenneth Faried

While not exactly a rim protector Faried is a solid overall defender and is dominant on the boards. I think he would slot in pretty nicely next to Frank with Cody the first big off the bench. Why would Denver do this? Well it looks like they are in pretty full blown rebuild mode around Mudiay and Nurkic...this would give them the ability to bring Nurkic along slowly with a great post mentor, as well as clear off their biggest contract for the future.

Option 3: Jefferson and Hairston for Gortat and Oubre

I like this one a lot personally, along with the Faried trade, but this one may make a little more sense. Washington needs all the room they can get for Durant's upcoming free agency and Al is on an expiring (and could possibly take a discount next year to play with Durant if thats realistic) It would give us more toughness at C and Gortats contract, while still bad, isnt quite AS bad with the way the cap is skyrocketing. We could pick up Oubre to give us the potential star we need on the wing and an actual backup SF for this year.

Thoughts on any of these? Thoughts of your own? Ill more than likely wait till the deadline to move him in my game and see how things play out, but ya never know...

[yosemiteben]

It we are in the playoff race with Al in the rotation, seems incredibly unlikely that he's getting moved.

[CatgutStitches]

I'd agree with that of course, and tbh I doubt he gets moved either way, but Im talking about a video game man (that we can project to real life possibilities) and Im the GM....so hes as good as gone unless we are really clicking...lol

I was thinking another option, that Im a bit scared of, is getting into a 3 team with Miami and Portland...Send Big Al to Portland, Miami may not be able to resign Whiteside for what he will want (which is why its scary, Im not sure if Id want to either) and then have draft picks changing hands...Id have to figure out how much everyone would be willing to give up...

I dont know, its fun to think about either way.

[Braggins]

I hope we go after Whiteside in the off-season if he has a good year. Him and Al Horford are the only guys I'd throw a lot of money at.

[Mystical Apples]

I don't see those trades as possible. Al doesn't have near the value to acquire Noah, and Washington doesn't need to clear space to sign Durant while also losing a young asset and a center in the process. If Denver ships Faried they'd likely want the younger and cheaper Zeller, which is also a reason why Charlotte wouldn't do the deal.

A'ls value is pretty low except if a contender needs help after injury or a capped-out team for next year wants a large expiring contract in hopes of signing someone like Durant or Horford. Either way I wouldn't count on getting much in return.

[HornetJail]

Yeah those are purely 2k trades. None of them make sense in real life, but I would do all three of those deals for us.

[LofJ]

I hope we go after Whiteside in the off-season if he has a good year. Him and Al Horford are the only guys I'd throw a lot of money at.

Whiteside would be a dream come true if he can continue his level of play from last year. Unfortunately though I don't think he would do well here. I think there would be too many distractions from family/friends for him to focus on basketball.

[HornetJail]

I'm going to go ahead and say no to Whiteside. He'll get massively overpaid, and then underachieve. He has a long history of immaturity on and off the court.

[Mystical Apples]

He may flame out before next summer. His act was wearing thin last year, and that's even before getting into his career total 6 assists

[spaceballer]

It's a contract year for Whiteside. So whether he pans out or flames out, he decides his fate and his next contract this season. Teams will be watching on the sidelines with their powder dry, and only Whiteside can control what happens with his own play.

[CatgutStitches]

Thats why Whiteside scares me...his sample size is just too small and Im super leery of throwing a lot of money at him.

But while Al isnt worth a ton I think you guys are undervaluing him a bit just because we are jaded by last season...dont forget he was 3rd team all NBA the year before. Around the league he's still looked at as a very solid C, especially in the right situation/system. His rating on NBA2k kind of proves that as hes rated higher than all the players I mentioned. And yes Im aware its just a video game but most people dont rate players like that so its as good a base line as anything and they put a ton of work and research into those ratings.

Based on Hollinger projections from the trade machine the trades I proposed are not insane, especially for the reasons mentioned.

Would they happen? No, probably not, but in the right situation with the right motivation its certainly possible.

Regardless of that, assuming we are struggling at the deadline yet Al is playing pretty well, what do you think we could get for him?

[Snidely FC]

From ESPN Insider Tom Haberstroh player profiles:

Scouting report
+ Oft-injured monster big man with retro game
+ Lives on left block and has soft touch but not a gifted passer
+ Rebounding and defense in decline and turnover allergic

Analysis
It's brutal to watch Jefferson limp around the floor these days. After dealing with plantar fasciitis in the 2014 playoffs, Jefferson missed a chunk of the season dealing with knee problems and vowed to lose weight this offseason in an effort to stay on the floor.

Hopefully that does it. Jefferson is a relic from another time, a bear on the left block who can methodically maul defenders with skill and precision. He used 8.6 close touches per game, according to SportVU player-tracking data, the second-highest rate in the NBA behind Dwight Howard. In fact, Jefferson tallied more points on the post-up plays last season than 13 entire NBA rosters, per Synergy Sports tracking. Monster.

He's a remarkably sure-handed player, coughing up the ball just 1.8 times per 100 possessions, absurdly low for a go-to scorer. However, at 30 years old, Jefferson's body has been breaking down, which has led to a decline in numbers across the board. After a promising 2013-14 defensive campaign, the Hornets were considerably better on that end when he hit the bench. Here's to hoping he enjoys a Zach Randolph-like resurgence.

[euphorbus]

I have heard nothing about him hobbling in preseason. Of course, the regular season is demanding and exhausting, so he may yet run into problems. What I want to know is, will he play better defense this year if he is in better shape and lighter on his feet?

[LamarMatic7]

no longer can we associate this song with Al

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lxMmTHZMXxc[/youtube]