Don't Be Hurtin' Lin - The Jeremy Lin Thread 2

[bws94]

Why are we arguing about his worth next year? A lot of things can change between now and end of season so it's baseless projection based on small sample size. Let's just focus on what he can do the for the team in the immediate future.

That's like saying playoff predictions prior to the season are baseless. It's a general idea- it's not supposed to be engraved in stone and be referred to until the end of time.

--

I think if Lin performs how I expect him to in a sixth/seventh man role, playing 20-25 minutes per game behind and alongside Kemba (let's say per 36 averages of 15/6, 3 TOs, and a solid 55 TS%, all right around his career averages), he'll be able to grab a $6M-8M contract next summer from a number of teams looking for a reliable backup that can start in a pinch. This pretty much puts Lin in the 25-30 ranking among all NBA point guards, so he'd be one of the elite backups the league has to offer.

If he exceeds expectations as a backup combo guard that plays 15mpg without Kemba and 15mpg with Kemba, plays better than expected in both roles, there's probably a team out there that shells out $10M a year for his services and gives him a starting job.

If he flops in the backup role (i.e. continues to shoot "Bad Kemba" percentages, has a worse AST/TO ratio, just doesn't appear to do that much good), he's probably looking at a similar situation as this past summer, where he's trying to find a place where he can succeed and bring up his value.

The good news for Lin is that the season doesn't end today. As he learns his teammates' tendencies, hopefully his efficiency and consistency will improve, because he's been all over the place. He's currently stuck between "worse than expected" and "as expected", and I think we can expect him to get into the "as expected" tier. The production is there, but the efficiency is not. For the amount of playmaking he does, 3TO/36min is unacceptable, as is the 28% 3-point shooting, but I think over the course of the season, those will normalize.

Very fair.

[bws94]

Yeah, Lin would start in NY for sure. He's better than any PG on the Sixer roster too, but I think Philly would probably rather play prospects so that might put him back on the bench.

I've been happy with what we've gotten from Lin thus far. I didn't expect a world beater, just someone better than Roberts with the occasional ability to provide a spark, and that is pretty much exactly what he has provided. Turnovers and efficiency are issues, but he's a backup so you gotta put it in proper perspective, not many backups in the league are high % low turnover performers. He is a perfect fit for his current role on the team, I don't think he should see it expanded or reined in. He has found a nice low-drama niche for himself in the league with the Hornets if he's willing to settle in as a solid career backup.

I don't think TOs have been that bad. They were last night. But for the most part, not that bad. He needs to shoot better.

Batum plays a big role on the team and although I love his game, his TOs are just as numerous and badly timed as anyone's. I think both Lin and Batum have to tighten it up in the TO department but since Batum's role is so big, that may rear its head in some games.

The thing is, Lin has a will to win quality that you'll see as the season progresses. He somehow makes plays (defensive: steals and takes charges, breaks up passes) and offensive passes and shots in the 4Q and definitely has a clutch gene that makes him much more than a backup PG or even 6th man. He becomes this player that opposing teams start to worry a lot about and try to make nervous because if he gains full confidence, he's a tough guy to deal with that can beat you. I very much love that Clifford has him in the closing squad.

[RealHusky]

Let's be real. I'm a Lin fan but I recognize that most people/teams don't see him the way I see him. I can list all the stats I want that compare him in almost the same tier as Dragic or Jrue Holiday or even Wall, but most people see him as a backup PG. Got it.

The only way he starts somewhere is if a GM takes a gamble or there's an injury (a la NY in 2012).

But I think Lin would be worth a gamble over:

Monta Ellis (IND)
Marcus Smart (BOS)
Jose Calderon (NYK)
Vasquez/Carter-Williams (MIL)
TJ McConnell (PHI)
Deron Williams (DAL)

Also, if there are injuries to aging players on contending teams like D. Rose or Tony Parker, I could see Lin filling in there as well.

Also, you could argue that Lin might be worth starting over Kemba based on previous year's stats (this year, Kemba has looked pretty good and I'm fine with him starting).

I am sure Houston could use him right now. Jason Terry and Ty Lawson? However, any PG playing next to Harden not gonna look good cause the guy gets free rein to shoot 20+ times a game and play no defense. In addition, Harden likes to dominate the ball so there is no need for a PG.

Lin could easily outplay guys like Reggie Jackson. Skill wise, Lin isn't much different than guys like Goran Dragic who is getting close to max pay while Lin is getting only $2M.

Last couple of games Clifford is putting Lin in the right situation to succeed. It is up to Lin to execute during his time on the court. Only thing I wish Hornets have is a rim protector and someone who can P&R better than Hawes and Cody. Cody can improve but he is nowhere the P&R big man like Tyson Chandler or even Ed Davis. We can forget Al as a P&R partner.

[tonman]

Why are we arguing about his worth next year? A lot of things can change between now and end of season so it's baseless projection based on small sample size. Let's just focus on what he can do the for the team in the immediate future.

That's like saying playoff predictions prior to the season are baseless. It's a general idea- it's not supposed to be engraved in stone and be referred to until the end of time.

--

I think if Lin performs how I expect him to in a sixth/seventh man role, playing 20-25 minutes per game behind and alongside Kemba (let's say per 36 averages of 15/6, 3 TOs, and a solid 55 TS%, all right around his career averages), he'll be able to grab a $6M-8M contract next summer from a number of teams looking for a reliable backup that can start in a pinch. This pretty much puts Lin in the 25-30 ranking among all NBA point guards, so he'd be one of the elite backups the league has to offer.

If he exceeds expectations as a backup combo guard that plays 15mpg without Kemba and 15mpg with Kemba, plays better than expected in both roles, there's probably a team out there that shells out $10M a year for his services and gives him a starting job.

If he flops in the backup role (i.e. continues to shoot "Bad Kemba" percentages, has a worse AST/TO ratio, just doesn't appear to do that much good), he's probably looking at a similar situation as this past summer, where he's trying to find a place where he can succeed and bring up his value.

The good news for Lin is that the season doesn't end today. As he learns his teammates' tendencies, hopefully his efficiency and consistency will improve, because he's been all over the place. He's currently stuck between "worse than expected" and "as expected", and I think we can expect him to get into the "as expected" tier. The production is there, but the efficiency is not. For the amount of playmaking he does, 3TO/36min is unacceptable, as is the 28% 3-point shooting, but I think over the course of the season, those will normalize.

come on. his numbers aren't great, but if you can't tell a difference when Lin's on the court with the way the team's playing then nothing is really acceptable. stop focusing on turnovers. screw them. is he making a positive impact. there's one way he can stop turnovers - just make the simple pass, don't be aggressive and take it to the basket. is that what you want?

let's get to playing the right style and then worry about reducing turnovers. it's been 12 games as a Hornet.

as for your "worse than expected" to "as expected", you must have had high hopes above his game as a Lakers. hey that's a good thing. but for a "backup" PG playing a good chunk of his time as a SG he's done fine. I'd hate to ask what his "better than expected" level of play is. note he spent most of the pre season playing SG along side Roberts.

and yes his recent play is important regarding what he can get in his next contract but all this "if he plays", the dude was a starter before and has started a ton of games. its a matter of opportunity for Lin. as a starter, he's at the lower end but that's without being given the chance to start and play through mistakes and be a starter for several seasons in a stable environment. Kemba's like got the role down for years and you can't say Kemba is better than Lin. seriously don't think this team would miss a beat if Kemba went down except for Roberts being the backup PG. (no I don't want to bring up the Kemba vs. Lin debate) Look at Denver and Mduiay.

#1 - WIN
#2 - IMPROVE

[Liver_Pooty]

Lol. "Could easily outplay Reggie Jackson".

Step up from saying he's better than James Harden I guess.

[13th Man]

...

[TinmanZBoy]

so far,
Lin's defense has been rock solid in defending both positions... Coach clifford's scheme really helps...
The offense has not been good at all, he has not been playing like a good PG, what a pity...it should have been his strength...
Suggestions:
1, change the hair, bowl top style is better... the gel affects his shooting hands...lol
2, more decisive in running the offense, move the ball early, make quicker decisions...
3, simplify the thinking process, let his instinct take over... no matter it is drive, or shoot, or pass...he needs to simplify the process, make quicker decisions...

[bws94]

I think Lin's spike has become a signature now.
Lin is better when he doesn't think too much.

[HornetJail]

come on. his numbers aren't great, but if you can't tell a difference when Lin's on the court with the way the team's playing then nothing is really acceptable. stop focusing on turnovers. screw them. is he making a positive impact. there's one way he can stop turnovers - just make the simple pass, don't be aggressive and take it to the basket. is that what you want?

let's get to playing the right style and then worry about reducing turnovers. it's been 12 games as a Hornet.

as for your "worse than expected" to "as expected", you must have had high hopes above his game as a Lakers. hey that's a good thing. but for a "backup" PG playing a good chunk of his time as a SG he's done fine. I'd hate to ask what his "better than expected" level of play is. note he spent most of the pre season playing SG along side Roberts.

and yes his recent play is important regarding what he can get in his next contract but all this "if he plays", the dude was a starter before and has started a ton of games. its a matter of opportunity for Lin. as a starter, he's at the lower end but that's without being given the chance to start and play through mistakes and be a starter for several seasons in a stable environment. Kemba's like got the role down for years and you can't say Kemba is better than Lin. seriously don't think this team would miss a beat if Kemba went down except for Roberts being the backup PG. (no I don't want to bring up the Kemba vs. Lin debate) Look at Denver and Mduiay.

#1 - WIN
#2 - IMPROVE

There are times when the team plays better with Lin, but you're either not noticing, or blatantly ignoring the other times when Lin looks completely lost out there.

We can stop focusing on turnovers for Lin? Then that means we can stop worrying about Kemba's shot and pretend he's as efficient as prime Tony Parker! You can't pick and choose what parts of the game to ignore.

I love that Lin is aggressive on offense- but that means **** if you're turning the ball over, taking bad shots, AND not finding teammates. There are entire stretches of games where Lin is just not getting it done in ANY of these areas. Even Kemba at his worst manages to do 1-2 of these correctly the majority of the time. Lin is a backup because of these moments (just like the first half of last game if you want to see proof).

Most of the starting point guards in this league had to battle a better player to become a starting point guard. Very few got handed the position from day one. Once the 20 or so games of Linsanity were over, Lin's role diminished as he showed that Linsanity was more a product of Mike D'Antoni's system that inflates PG stats like crazy, than actual top 20 PG play. Think about his second season in Houston as a "rookie season" of sorts. Lin's been a couple systems that don't fit him, and he's moved around, to find a team willing to play him 20-25 minutes and is actually giving him quite a decent leash. Like most young point guards, Lin is going to have to find time when the opportunity arises (such as an injury to Kemba Walker, a trade to a team desperate for a spot starter, or a stretch of solid play that allows Steve Clifford to extend his minutes). That's how a lot of PG find their way to bigger opportunities. Look no further than Reggie Jackson, who was stuck behind Westbrook for years, but injuries and eventually a trade to Detroit made him a starting PG earning $16M a year.

[BatumtheGlue]

I just couldn't understand why some of Lin fans keep complaing about his minutes, his teammates, etc. Lin is what he is. Sometimes he is fun to watch and sometimes frustating to watch especially when he plays out of control. Didn't you guys see how much Clifford trust him? Even when he made a lot of mistakes, Clifford let him play through it. That's something he didn't had over his stint in Houston or LA. At this point Charlotte Hornets is one of the best place for him to regain his confident and to play his own style basketball. I'm sorry if my english isn't too well. English isn't my main languange, heck it's not even my 2nd languange, lol.

[bws94]

I agree with you partially MKG. In some ways, Lin looks like a young player at times.

There's an analyst that goes pretty in-depth with Lin and says Lin is a high-risk, high-reward player. He looks kind of frantic out there and you hope that the good outweighs the bad. I would add that sometimes you get a gem. With Lin you get the Good, the Bad and the Ugly all in one game sometimes. There are times Lin can not get the offense going for anything and other times he's elevating team mates with his passes and court vision.

I don't agree that Lin got handed anything. He had a rough go and the Knicks needed a PG. There's more than Lin just did well in that system. Lin's look Linsanity like under McHale for stretches of no Harden and he's look Linsanity like under stretches of a very poor offensive system run by Scott. He even had a Linsanity like game in Charlotte with the Knicks last week in that he made the huge backbreaking plays at critical times in the game. He has an elite 1st step, can finish almost elite at the hoop, he has a lot of straight line speed yet there are some other physical things he doesn't have like he's not above the rim like Rose or others nor does he move side to side quick like others or have a quick release on his jumpshot. His decision making is a head scrather. Sometimes he's spot on other times he's reckless and other times flat out ineffective.

He keeps you guessing. So, yeah, he may be 27 but he's still developing his game and learning the fine points of his position.

And he is a player that is looking for 26-30 MPG, not 20-25 and I think Clifford will play him around 27-28 MPG and looks like Lin is solidly in the closing squad. And we are also seeing more Lin integrated with Batum and Kemba. If either of those guys miss games, Lin has to back either up although you may have to combine Lin with others to try to equal Batum's production.

[bws94]

I just couldn't understand why some of Lin fans keep complaing about his minutes, his teammates, etc. Lin is what he is. Sometimes he is fun to watch and sometimes frustating to watch especially when he plays out of control. Didn't you guys see how much Clifford trust him? Even when he made a lot of mistakes, Clifford let him play through it. That's something he didn't had over his stint in Houston or LA. At this point Charlotte Hornets is one of the best place for him to regain his confident and to play his own style basketball. I'm sorry if my english isn't too well. English isn't my main languange, heck it's not even my 2nd languange, lol.

You did fine, your point is well taken. Some Lin fans know Lin can excel when playing a lot of minutes but Lin is mistake-prone and Cliff is fair in my opinion.

[bws94]

And MKG, love your in-game comments. Everyone is a hero or bum depending on the moment. Also love Liver_Pooty's in-game comments. Keep 'em coming!

[HornetJail]

I just couldn't understand why some of Lin fans keep complaing about his minutes, his teammates, etc. Lin is what he is. Sometimes he is fun to watch and sometimes frustating to watch especially when he plays out of control. Didn't you guys see how much Clifford trust him? Even when he made a lot of mistakes, Clifford let him play through it. That's something he didn't had over his stint in Houston or LA. At this point Charlotte Hornets is one of the best place for him to regain his confident and to play his own style basketball. I'm sorry if my english isn't too well. English isn't my main languange, heck it's not even my 2nd languange, lol.

nah, your english seems better a lot of English-speaking Internet users out there typing "your a idiot u fuqqboi" or Stephen Jackson's twitter.

[kinein]

its official, he's just been in a slump, but a good player finds other ways to contribute, like his 9 rebounds last game. give him time, they longer he has to gel with the team the better, he showed he can bring it during the pre-season. for whatever reason he just needs time to work on his scoring game. but its a slump, has been a slump for a few games now.

[TinmanZBoy]

i don't have a problem with his TOs when he is trying to make plays and being aggressive...
I am really bothered by the indecisiveness, at times it seems he went back to Byron Scott's system... it seems after he brought the ball up, he was weighing on options and slow to start the offense...a lot of times, he was checking with coach clifford what to do, seems he could not hear or see what play coach called... it is just not the lin who directed traffic in Knicks and Rockets..

[leeramundo]

I'm a Lin fan and I've found Clifford to be pretty fair with his minutes so far. A couple times I thought even a bit generous, or trusting in Lin given the situation. I do think that Jeremy is capable of giving more to the team than he's shown, but until then, he hasn't earned more minutes and I'm fine with the current arrangement.

About the style of play, it's a hard one. When he plays aggressive and a bit out of control he's at his best. That's his natural style of play. When it works, it can turn things around and give a huge boost, it's Linsanity, when it doesn't, it's a whole lot of missed shots and TO's. When he tries to play slow and steady, it usually doesn't work because at this point he still doesn't have a reliable enough jumpshot, or maybe he's just been in a slump. Sometimes, when he's trying to be more controlled and less aggressive, you get the hesistant, won't take open shots, dribble around aimlessly Lin. You don't ignore the TO's, but at this point him playing with the mindset he had last night is still probably your best bet at him helping the team. I think it's partly because we don't have a real quality and willing roller on the PNR. Until we have one it's gonna be tough for Lin to be as effective as he can. This is the reason why I don't particularly have a problem with him not really being the primary ballhandler. I actually like having him doing those cuts like he has last night on a couple occasions on passes from Batum or Kemba. Worked real good, allows him to be aggressive without having to force something to happen as the ballhandler when he doesn't have alot to work with. When he was playing the off guard in Houston and LA I don't think I've seen him do that. So I'm happy with the way he's being used given what the team has to work with.

[leeramundo]

I just couldn't understand why some of Lin fans keep complaing about his minutes, his teammates, etc. Lin is what he is. Sometimes he is fun to watch and sometimes frustating to watch especially when he plays out of control. Didn't you guys see how much Clifford trust him? Even when he made a lot of mistakes, Clifford let him play through it. That's something he didn't had over his stint in Houston or LA. At this point Charlotte Hornets is one of the best place for him to regain his confident and to play his own style basketball. I'm sorry if my english isn't too well. English isn't my main languange, heck it's not even my 2nd languange, lol.

I agree with you completely. McHale and Scott wouldn't have trusted lin in the 4th so many times when he committed the TOs he has and made the mistakes he has. I'm real happy with Clifford, especially knowing that he's known to be a low risk kind of coach. I also do think some of his trust for jeremy is derived from the generally solid to very good defense he's been playing though.

[steady]

I'm not mad about it, but I do find it odd that Lin subs in so late.

Not at the 6 minutes left in 1st quarter mark, not at the 5 minutes mark, not even at the 4 minutes, but at the 2 minutes mark.

Is there any other backup PG in the League that subs in that late?

It's especially weird when you consider Lin is trusted to close games. 'i am sure there is a reason I just don't undestand it

[TinmanZBoy]

I just couldn't understand why some of Lin fans keep complaing about his minutes, his teammates, etc. Lin is what he is. Sometimes he is fun to watch and sometimes frustating to watch especially when he plays out of control. Didn't you guys see how much Clifford trust him? Even when he made a lot of mistakes, Clifford let him play through it. That's something he didn't had over his stint in Houston or LA. At this point Charlotte Hornets is one of the best place for him to regain his confident and to play his own style basketball. I'm sorry if my english isn't too well. English isn't my main languange, heck it's not even my 2nd languange, lol.

I agree with you completely. McHale and Scott wouldn't have trusted lin in the 4th so many times when he committed the TOs he has and made the mistakes he has. I'm real happy with Clifford, especially knowing that he's known to be a low risk kind of coach. I also do think some of his trust for jeremy is derived from the generally solid to very good defense he's been playing though.

it was all about matchups... Lin and Kemba matched up well against Galloway/Calderon, larkin/Jack