BrandHIM Miller: The Brandon Miller Thread

[JMAC3]

There's also tons of evidence of college scorers with low assists not being either reliable scorers or creators in the league. It's all about who you choose to believe in. That's kind of my point.

Right... I guess nothing could be nothing and this is all for nothing because we don't know for a fact and yada yada...

My point is that most great passers in NBA, did not show they were great passers in college. Hence why I can just pull 10 examples in the blink of an eye that make sense.

I have legit asked for people to do the same for Scoot when it comes to shooting.. guys who in their final year of college shot under 3 attempts per game and became good to great shooters in the NBA. Literally zero examples could be provided.... zero.

I really don't think that is some crazy ask.. to me that is the difference.

[fatlever]

Based on what I've seen, I feel pretty confident that Miller could easily develop into a four to five assist per game type player by season 3,4, as his usage ramps up.

Miles should be there this year.



Sent from my SM-G973U using RealGM Forums mobile app

[LofJ]

There's also tons of evidence of college scorers with low assists not being either reliable scorers or creators in the league. It's all about who you choose to believe in. That's kind of my point.

Right... I guess nothing could be nothing and this is all for nothing because we don't know for a fact and yada yada...

My point is that most great passers in NBA, did not show they were great passers in college. Hence why I can just pull 10 examples in the blink of an eye that make sense.

I have legit asked for people to do the same for Scoot when it comes to shooting.. guys who in their final year of college shot under 3 attempts per game and became good to great shooters in the NBA. Literally zero examples could be provided.... zero.

I really don't think that is some crazy ask.. to me that is the difference.

Why would you evaluate Scoot against guys in the final year of college rather than their freshman year? Because that's how old he is. And in that case Kawhi Leonard, Jaylen Brown, Donovan Mitchell, Kris Middleton, Mikal Bridges, Cam Johnson, and I'm sure a few more all shot around or under 3 attempts per game (from the shorter college line) their freshmen season.

[JMAC3]

There's also tons of evidence of college scorers with low assists not being either reliable scorers or creators in the league. It's all about who you choose to believe in. That's kind of my point.

Right... I guess nothing could be nothing and this is all for nothing because we don't know for a fact and yada yada...

My point is that most great passers in NBA, did not show they were great passers in college. Hence why I can just pull 10 examples in the blink of an eye that make sense.

I have legit asked for people to do the same for Scoot when it comes to shooting.. guys who in their final year of college shot under 3 attempts per game and became good to great shooters in the NBA. Literally zero examples could be provided.... zero.

I really don't think that is some crazy ask.. to me that is the difference.

Why would you evaluate Scoot against guys in the final year of college rather than their freshman year? Because that's how old he is. And in that case Kawhi Leonard, Jaylen Brown, Donovan Mitchell, Kris Middleton, Mikal Bridges, Cam Johnson, and I'm sure a few more all shot around or under 3 attempts per game (from the shorter college line).

Because two things...
1. They weren't drafted off their freshman season performance if they stayed multiple years.
2. They improved in later years and them improving had already happened so the proof already existed they got better...

With Scoot you are 100% projecting, why would you compare him to guys that if they had not improved wouldn't of been drafted as high. Donovan Mitchell wasn't drafted as a freshman who averaged 7 points, 2.3 3pt attempts per game and 25%.. he was drafted after he improved and became a 6.6 threes per game shooter and 15.6 ppg scorer

so again... zero examples can be provided.

actually, Jaylen Brown can count.. so that is the first example.

[JMAC3]

Right... I guess nothing could be nothing and this is all for nothing because we don't know for a fact and yada yada...

My point is that most great passers in NBA, did not show they were great passers in college. Hence why I can just pull 10 examples in the blink of an eye that make sense.

I have legit asked for people to do the same for Scoot when it comes to shooting.. guys who in their final year of college shot under 3 attempts per game and became good to great shooters in the NBA. Literally zero examples could be provided.... zero.

I really don't think that is some crazy ask.. to me that is the difference.

Why would you evaluate Scoot against guys in the final year of college rather than their freshman year? Because that's how old he is. And in that case Kawhi Leonard, Jaylen Brown, Donovan Mitchell, Kris Middleton, Mikal Bridges, Cam Johnson, and I'm sure a few more all shot around or under 3 attempts per game (from the shorter college line).

Because two things...
1. They weren't drafted off their freshman season performance if they stayed multiple years.
2. They improved in later years and them improving had already happened so the proof already existed they got better...

With Scoot you are 100% projecting, why would you compare him to guys that if they had not improved wouldn't of been drafted as high. Donovan Mitchell wasn't drafted as a freshman who averaged 7 points, 2.3 3pt attempts per game and 25%.. he was drafted after he improved and became a 6.6 threes per game shooter and 15.6 ppg scorer

so again... zero examples can be provided.

actually, Jaylen Brown can count.. so that is the first example.

You are acting as if there aren't hundreds of guys that were drafted as freshman that could fit this example either lol...

[SWedd523]

Based on what I've seen, I feel pretty confident that Miller could easily develop into a four to five assist per game type player by season 3,4, as his usage ramps up.

Miles should be there this year.



Sent from my SM-G973U using RealGM Forums mobile app

I think there's a difference between a 4-5 assist guy and a 4-5 assist guy.

I know that doesn't make sense, But there's a difference between a wing facilitator and a wing who gets assists based off his usage.

Being perimeter oriented, you want him to have facilitation-ability, and while I don't think Miller has quite the gravity to do that (heliocentrically), I also don't think he's going to be a hindrance.

He could get 4-5 within the flow of the offense because he seems like a high BBIQ guy who knows when to find the open player, but not a guy you're gonna give the ball to and expect to create for others.

Hopefully that makes sense.

I don't really want him to be a Tatum style ball dominator anyway FWIW, because I value motion style offenses over ISO anyway.

[JMAC3]

Based on what I've seen, I feel pretty confident that Miller could easily develop into a four to five assist per game type player by season 3,4, as his usage ramps up.

Miles should be there this year.



Sent from my SM-G973U using RealGM Forums mobile app

I think there's a difference between a 4-5 assist guy and a 4-5 assist guy.

I know that doesn't make sense, But there's a difference between a wing facilitator and a wing who gets assists based off his usage.

Being perimeter oriented, you want him to have facilitation-ability, and while I don't think Miller has quite the gravity to do that (heliocentrically), I also don't think he's going to be a hindrance.

He could get 4-5 within the flow of the offense because he seems like a high BBIQ guy who knows when to find the open player, but not a guy you're gonna give the ball to and expect to create for others.

Hopefully that makes sense.

I don't really want him to be a Tatum style ball dominator anyway FWIW, because I value motion style offenses over ISO anyway.

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/ball-handler?SeasonType=Regular+Season&SeasonYear=2022-23&dir=D&sort=POSS

Here is our PnR offensive numbers last season, ideally I think if Miller can be a guy that can run 4-6 PnR as a handler and be a creator in that way that is ideal.

For comparison, PG, Ingram both ran about 7 a game. Tatum and Wagner ran around 5.

The rest of his assists can come in grab and go situations (did this a lot in college averaging 8 boards), swing swings, and just attacking closeouts on the perimeter.

[yosemiteben]

There's also tons of evidence of college scorers with low assists not being either reliable scorers or creators in the league. It's all about who you choose to believe in. That's kind of my point.

Right... I guess nothing could be nothing and this is all for nothing because we don't know for a fact and yada yada...

My point is that most great passers in NBA, did not show they were great passers in college.

I mean it's actually that, after removing guards, international players like Luka and Giannis, centers, and guys like LBJ that went straight to the league, 7 of the top 9 players in assists didn't post high assists in college. That's a pretty qualified piece of data.

My hangup there is that there are very many examples of prospects not becoming + playmakers. I would also counter with the argument that most of the guys on your list are + on the ball / physical creators (Paschal, Ingram, Butler, Randle, Tatum). Based on what I've seen of Miller, I have a difficult time seeing him transform into that level of creator. For me his physical attributes (other than his height) and his handle are underwhelming.

I have legit asked for people to do the same for Scoot when it comes to shooting.. guys who in their final year of college shot under 3 attempts per game and became good to great shooters in the NBA. Literally zero examples could be provided.... zero.

My two immediate responses would be (1) the final year of college distinction really just begs the question of potential improvement after year 1, and (2) Scoot himself wouldn't fit that criteria, which is part of the problem for me with this exercise. I get you think that he should have been able to up stats in the G league so the distinction isn't significant, we obviously differ on that.

[JDR720]

There's also tons of evidence of college scorers with low assists not being either reliable scorers or creators in the league. It's all about who you choose to believe in. That's kind of my point.

Right... I guess nothing could be nothing and this is all for nothing because we don't know for a fact and yada yada...

My point is that most great passers in NBA, did not show they were great passers in college. Hence why I can just pull 10 examples in the blink of an eye that make sense.

I have legit asked for people to do the same for Scoot when it comes to shooting.. guys who in their final year of college shot under 3 attempts per game and became good to great shooters in the NBA. Literally zero examples could be provided.... zero.

I really don't think that is some crazy ask.. to me that is the difference.

Issues with your arguments:

1 - Why do you believe Miller will become a great NBA passer when he did not show this ability in college? He averaged more TO's than assists and had a poor assist rate in general.

2 - Scoot is a teenager, not a final year of college player. He shot the same as Kemba did at the same age. From the NBA 3pt line.

Also for an example of your specific scenario, Austin Reaves. He shot 30% in college senior year. Which is actually better than his junior year, that he shot 25%. And has become a very good NBA shooter.

There are far more non-shooters who became good shooters than non-passers who became good passers. Especially when Scoot is already a good midrange shooter and FT shooter.

So how do you figure Miller will become a great passer yet at the same time don't think Scoot can become a good shooter? It doesn't make any sense at all.

[JMAC3]

There's also tons of evidence of college scorers with low assists not being either reliable scorers or creators in the league. It's all about who you choose to believe in. That's kind of my point.

Right... I guess nothing could be nothing and this is all for nothing because we don't know for a fact and yada yada...

My point is that most great passers in NBA, did not show they were great passers in college.

I mean it's actually that, after removing guards, international players like Luka and Giannis, centers, and guys like LBJ that went straight to the league, 7 of the top 9 players in assists didn't post high assists in college. That's a pretty qualified piece of data.

My hangup there is that there are very many examples of prospects not becoming + playmakers. I would also counter with the argument that most of the guys on your list are + on the ball / physical creators (Paschal, Ingram, Butler, Randle, Tatum). Based on what I've seen of Miller, I have a difficult time seeing him transform into that level of creator. For me his physical attributes (other than his height) and his handle are underwhelming.

I have legit asked for people to do the same for Scoot when it comes to shooting.. guys who in their final year of college shot under 3 attempts per game and became good to great shooters in the NBA. Literally zero examples could be provided.... zero.

My two immediate responses would be (1) the final year of college distinction is arbitrary, evidenced by the fact that you didn't use it in several instances in your Miller argument, and (2) Scoot himself wouldn't fit that criteria, which is part of the problem for me with this exercise. I get you think that he should have been able to up stats in the G league so the distinction isn't significant, we obviously differ on that.

What stats do you want me to use for LeBron and Giannis? it is not as if I omitted them to taint the dataset. You are really just throwing stuff at the wall hoping it sticks.... I legit posted guys who were freshman and when I didn't I used their career avg if there weren't large discrepancies. In cases where the discrepancy was a lot I used their best season ala Jimmy Butler. Legit the more data I post, the more it gives you tiny little occurrences to nitpick rather than actual value it as a large dataset.

If anything, I could have used everyone of those prospects freshman years and it would have made Miller look even better...

[yosemiteben]

His argument is not about percentage, it's all about attempts. He's basically saying no one has ever shot fewer than 3 3PAs their last year in college and turned into a good NBA shooter.

[yosemiteben]

What stats do you want me to use for LeBron and Giannis? it is not as if I omitted them to taint the dataset. You are really just throwing stuff at the wall hoping it sticks.... I legit posted guys who were freshman and when I didn't I used their career avg if there weren't large discrepancies. In cases where the discrepancy was a lot I used their best season ala Jimmy Butler. Legit the more data I post, the more it gives you tiny little occurrences to nitpick rather than actual value it as a large dataset.

You said "most great passers in NBA, did not show they were great passers in college" and then left out many of the best NBA passers, including all guards. I was explaining why, it was obvious that assumption was being made in the sample you provided.

I'm not saying it was a bad sample, but it is definitely true that there were a lot of qualifiers going on that wasn't reflected in the simple statement that most good passers in the NBA weren't good before they got there.

I also went further and addressed the sample specifically, but you seem to have gotten stuck on my observations about the sample.

[JMAC3]

What stats do you want me to use for LeBron and Giannis? it is not as if I omitted them to taint the dataset. You are really just throwing stuff at the wall hoping it sticks.... I legit posted guys who were freshman and when I didn't I used their career avg if there weren't large discrepancies. In cases where the discrepancy was a lot I used their best season ala Jimmy Butler. Legit the more data I post, the more it gives you tiny little occurrences to nitpick rather than actual value it as a large dataset.

You said "most great passers in NBA, did not show they were great passers in college" and then left out many of the best NBA passers, including all guards. I was explaining why, it was obvious that assumption was being made in the sample you provided.

I'm not saying it was a bad sample, but it is definitely true that there were a lot of qualifiers going on that wasn't reflected in the simple statement that most good passers in the NBA weren't good before they got there.

I have been saying wings... wing passers... why would I include point guards in the data set. Get real man.

Bam averaged 0.8 apg in college. Sabonis averaged 1.8 apg in college. Two of the best big passers in the game. I can include them in the data set as well if you want... but again we are talking about wing playmakers.

[yosemiteben]

What stats do you want me to use for LeBron and Giannis? it is not as if I omitted them to taint the dataset. You are really just throwing stuff at the wall hoping it sticks.... I legit posted guys who were freshman and when I didn't I used their career avg if there weren't large discrepancies. In cases where the discrepancy was a lot I used their best season ala Jimmy Butler. Legit the more data I post, the more it gives you tiny little occurrences to nitpick rather than actual value it as a large dataset.

You said "most great passers in NBA, did not show they were great passers in college" and then left out many of the best NBA passers, including all guards. I was explaining why, it was obvious that assumption was being made in the sample you provided.

I'm not saying it was a bad sample, but it is definitely true that there were a lot of qualifiers going on that wasn't reflected in the simple statement that most good passers in the NBA weren't good before they got there.

I have been saying wings... wing passers... why would I include point guards in the data set. Get real man.

Right, I agree and basically said as much. Yet here you are complaining that I pointed out what was excluded from the set.

You made the statement that "most great passers in NBA, did not show they were great passers in college" and then used a much narrower set than "great passers in the NBA." I pointed that out, and now you're mad that I pointed it out and also agreeing that you used a smaller sample.

Are you wanting me to apologize?

[JMAC3]

Issues with your arguments:

1 - Why do you believe Miller will become a great NBA passer when he did not show this ability in college? He averaged more TO's than assists and had a poor assist rate in general.

2 - Scoot is a teenager, not a final year of college player. He shot the same as Kemba did at the same age. From the NBA 3pt line.

Also for an example of your specific scenario, Austin Reaves. He shot 30% in college senior year. shooter. Which is actually better than his junior year, that he shot 25%. And has become a very good NBA

There are far more non-shooters who became good shooters than non-passers who became good passers. Especially when Scoot is already a good midrange shooter and FT shooter.

So how do you figure Miller will become a great passer yet at the same time don't think Scoot can become a good shooter? It doesn't make any sense at all.

1. Have you read anything I have posted? I have legit posted assist and turnover percentages 3 times now. Tatum, Ingram, Randle, Pascal, Hayward, Paul George...etc etc all averaged more turnovers than assists per game too.... Do you actually look up data before you just start spouting randomness? His assist % were in the same realm as all of those guys.

2. Kemba wasn't drafted after his freshman year was he? I can guarantee if he was he wouldn't of went 9th overall. The reason he was drafted because he improved year over year. Teams saw that. Not everyone does it.

Now you just want to take this very rare case, and say Scoot will do that???? It makes no sense, especially when there are 100's of 1 and done prospects we could look at compare Scoot shooting to... I could of said limit the case scenario to only freshman drafted, but I even gave you more options to use the final year of college production (again the most important when it comes to getting drafted)....

[Liver_Pooty]

I think you all make valid points and I'm just here for the back and forth. That is all.

[JDR720]

His argument is not about percentage, it's all about attempts. He's basically saying no one has ever shot fewer than 3 3PAs their last year in college and turned into a good NBA shooter.

Oddly specific criteria. I would think a non-shooter shooting a bunch of 3's would be a bad thing. But I guess not.

Anyways, more examples.

Tyrese Maxey - 29% on 3.6 attempts in college. 43% this season in NBA
Kawai - 29% on 2.5 attempts. 39% for career
Alec Burkes - 29% on 3.5 attempts. 38% for career.
Jerami Grant - 0% on 0 attempts. 36% for career (3 seasons of 39% +)
Normal Powell - 31% on 3 attempts. 39% for career.
Grant Williams - 32% on 1 attempt. 38% for career.
De'Anthony Melton - 28% on 2 attempts. 37% for career (39 this season)
Tobias Harris - 30% on 2 attempts. 37% for career.
Jrue Holiday - 30% on 2.5 attempts. 37% for career.
Christian Wood - 28% on 3 attempts. 38% for career.
Brook Lopez - 0% on 0 attempts, also didn't shoot 3's for first half of NBA career. 35% since.
Al Horford - 0% on 0 attempts. also didn't shoot 3's for first half of NBA career. 37% since.
Myles Turner - 27% on 2 attempts. 35% for career.
Ant Edwards - 29% on 7 attempts. 35% for career.
Trey Lyles - 13% on 1 attempt. 34% for career.

And that's barely scratching the surface and would be much more extensive if you look at how they shot as teenagers, like Donovan Mitchell and Kemba (both under 30%). There are plenty of examples of NBA players, mostly bigs, turning into shooters out of nowhere too.

[JDR720]

1. Have you read anything I have posted? I have legit posted assist and turnover percentages 3 times now. Tatum, Ingram, Randle, Pascal, Hayward, Paul George...etc etc all averaged more turnovers than assists per game too.... Do you actually look up data before you just start spouting randomness? His assist % were in the same realm as all of those guys.

2. Kemba wasn't drafted after his freshman year was he? I can guarantee if he was he wouldn't of went 9th overall. The reason he was drafted because he improved year over year. Teams saw that. Not everyone does it.

Now you just want to take this very rare case, and say Scoot will do that???? It makes no sense, especially when there are 100's of 1 and done prospects we could look at compare Scoot shooting to... I could of said limit the case scenario to only freshman drafted, but I even gave you more options to use the final year of college production (again the most important when it comes to getting drafted)....

1st - Sure, they did it, but why does that mean Miller could too? See my previous stats I posted, only 4 players listed as a SF average more than 5 assists. If you expand that to the tweener PF's (Siakam, somehow PG13 is listed as a PF, KD etc) that number gets to around 8. Most of these guys are All-NBA level players, if healthy.

2- See my list I just posted. Players improve shooting all the time.

You're argument is literally that Miller can do X because other players have done it, yet Scoot can't do Y even if other players have done it.

[JDR720]

Just noticed that Randle shot 16% in college on .5 attempts. And was a terrible NBA shooter until he went to the Knicks, where he has been somewhere between around average to very good since.

So, if Miller can become a good passer like Randle did. Why can Scoot not become a good shooter like Randle did?

Marvin Williams too, he didn't shoot 3's at all when he entered the league and then turned into a higher level 3&D player.

So not only do players regularly become good shooters in the NBA despite not being so in college. They also turn into shooters mid-career sometimes.

[SWedd523]

You're argument is literally that Miller can do X because other players have done it, yet Scoot can't do Y even if other players have done it

Isn't your argument the inverse?

If folks can assume Scoot is going to cure Cancer, develop synthetic gasoline, and invent interstellar travel, then why can't Miller turn into a LeBron level passer?