Woj: Batum to Charlotte, Vonleh + Gerald to Portland

[Diop]

I knew there was something wrong with my thinking. I should be sleeping....

[BeesWax]

With as many moves as it took I am not surprised people lost track. I wish we did not have Hawes but having Lamb instead of Lance is not a bad deal.

[BigSlam]

I strongly disagree there. You can't just take Batum out of the equation, he is literally only on our roster because we sent Vonleh and we would have had the 9 either way. I can see saying Vonleh + Winslow or someone else available at 9 vs. Frank + Batum, but Batum has to be involved in the analysis IMO.

I guess my angle is that if our FO strongly believed in Vonleh they wouldn't have drafted Frank.

How about comparing Batum Vs Henderson and Frank Vs Vonleh then?


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Just to make it more confusing, the trade also ended up in us getting Lamb. So should we add him to the equation ?

No. He would be compared to what ever the 2nd round pick we traded yields.

That said, I don't necessarily agree with the straight up comparisons some posters try to make in relation to trades and the "win/loss" equation they try to rationalize.

[Mystical Apples]

Judging trades/drafts/FA based upon future outcomes is flawed anyways. It's an outcome bias and doesn't indicate whether or not a decision was rooted in logic.

[BigSlam]

Judging trades/drafts/FA based upon future outcomes is flawed anyways. It's an outcome bias and doesn't indicate whether or not a decision was rooted in logic.

Aggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggreeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeedddddd!!!

[BeesWax]

Judging trades/drafts/FA based upon future outcomes is flawed anyways. It's an outcome bias and doesn't indicate whether or not a decision was rooted in logic.

Aggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggreeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeedddddd!!!

While it is not perfect it is the only way to judge these things. Maybe Vonleh becomes a star there and never would have here but there is no other way to judge. Also if any of these guys become stars where they are and would not have the other place that would also be a indictment on the coaching at the original team.

[Mystical Apples]

Judging trades/drafts/FA based upon future outcomes is flawed anyways. It's an outcome bias and doesn't indicate whether or not a decision was rooted in logic.

Aggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggreeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeedddddd!!!

While it is not perfect it is the only way to judge these things. Maybe Vonleh becomes a star there and never would have here but there is no other way to judge. Also if any of these guys become stars where they are and would not have the other place that would also be a indictment on the coaching at the original team.

It would be an indictment if it happened *more frequently* than can be reasonably explained away with chance. And even then we're looking at small sample sizes and subjective situation specific outcomes.

Cho traded a 9th pick in a weak draft for an above average starter on a 1 year deal. He no doubt weighed the odds of Batum re-signing against Vonleh progressing within their system. The outcomes of either do not impact his logic

[BeesWax]

Aggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggreeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeedddddd!!!

While it is not perfect it is the only way to judge these things. Maybe Vonleh becomes a star there and never would have here but there is no other way to judge. Also if any of these guys become stars where they are and would not have the other place that would also be a indictment on the coaching at the original team.

It would be an indictment if it happened *more frequently* than can be reasonably explained away with chance. And even then we're looking at small sample sizes and subjective situation specific outcomes.

Cho traded a 9th pick in a weak draft for an above average starter on a 1 year deal. He no doubt weighed the odds of Batum re-signing against Vonleh progressing within their system. The outcomes of either do not impact his logic

Cho bent over and took it because he had to custom fit a roster to a coach who has not shown the flexibility to adjust to his players. I am sure he ran over all the numbers but his hand was forced because mistakes were made before he got here and he gambled wrong on Clifford.

[Mystical Apples]

Portland had a very different probability set than Charlotte. They had to weigh if LMA walked, did they want to pay Batum during rebuild, was Matthews damaged goods, could they afford to keep 4 max contracts, etc..

[BigSlam]

Judging trades/drafts/FA based upon future outcomes is flawed anyways. It's an outcome bias and doesn't indicate whether or not a decision was rooted in logic.

Aggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggreeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeedddddd!!!

While it is not perfect it is the only way to judge these things. Maybe Vonleh becomes a star there and never would have here but there is no other way to judge. Also if any of these guys become stars where they are and would not have the other place that would also be a indictment on the coaching at the original team.

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4u7akRLnGyk[/youtube]

[Mystical Apples]

While it is not perfect it is the only way to judge these things. Maybe Vonleh becomes a star there and never would have here but there is no other way to judge. Also if any of these guys become stars where they are and would not have the other place that would also be a indictment on the coaching at the original team.

It would be an indictment if it happened *more frequently* than can be reasonably explained away with chance. And even then we're looking at small sample sizes and subjective situation specific outcomes.

Cho traded a 9th pick in a weak draft for an above average starter on a 1 year deal. He no doubt weighed the odds of Batum re-signing against Vonleh progressing within their system. The outcomes of either do not impact his logic

Cho bent over and took it because he had to custom fit a roster to a coach who has not shown the flexibility to adjust to his players. I am sure he ran over all the numbers but his hand was forced because mistakes were made before he got here and he gambled wrong on Clifford.

Hmm - well he had lots to weigh. But saying "he took it" is stating you somehow know he was on the losing end of a deal. It's something you can't know. In fact, unless you believe he only talked to Portland about the trade, the safest thing to say is he received market value.

[Mystical Apples]

Portland also likely cringed at this deal. They were the closest they've been to a title shot in over 20 years. But their probability set was different than Charlotte's. They had to weigh the probability of LMA returning, Wesley Matthews injury and return, if Batum would return in a year, or if Paul Allen would even pay 4 max contracts.

The Batum trade for Portland was a hedge. But I could also say it unnecessarily chased away LMA and Matthews, which in turn caused their collapse. It may have but I don't know and more importantly it doesn't mean their logic was flawed

[BeesWax]

It would be an indictment if it happened *more frequently* than can be reasonably explained away with chance. And even then we're looking at small sample sizes and subjective situation specific outcomes.

Cho traded a 9th pick in a weak draft for an above average starter on a 1 year deal. He no doubt weighed the odds of Batum re-signing against Vonleh progressing within their system. The outcomes of either do not impact his logic

Cho bent over and took it because he had to custom fit a roster to a coach who has not shown the flexibility to adjust to his players. I am sure he ran over all the numbers but his hand was forced because mistakes were made before he got here and he gambled wrong on Clifford.

Hmm - well he had lots to weigh. But saying "he took it" is stating you somehow know he was on the losing end of a deal. It's something you can't know. In fact, unless you believe he only talked to Portland about the trade, the safest thing to say is he received market value.

The problem becomes we can't talk about winning or losing the trade for years. It will take a long time to figure out who wins and loses for certain. For now we can only guess and project in both ways. The rumor was not that he was shopping Noah but Zeller and in order to get what Cliff had to have to maybe be successful he had to overpay. I think Cho was over a barrel because of our coach and that other teams knew it and could gouge him because we are stuck in a bad spot.

So while I may not be able to be certain it is a terrible as I feel it was nobody can be any more certain it was good. We are all projecting based off what we think will happen and I think this trade ends up looking as dumb as anything we have done aside from not letting Cliff go this offseason.

[Mystical Apples]

It's very possible Cho felt pressure. But the return was solid given the lack of depth in the 2014 draft.

If we're making outcome based judgments then a case could be made the trade for Portland was one of the worst in recent NBA history. They went from a contender to full rebuild and a direct line could be drawn to the Batum trade as the first Domino.

[Mystical Apples]

That Portland trade was a huge "FU" to the remaining players and sacrificed the present for future potential. Ironically, the situation Charlotte wants to avoid with Batum and FA in 2016 and beyond.

[yosemiteben]

Very impressed with Mystical Apples's last few posts and completely agree.

[stinger14]

It's very possible Cho felt pressure. But the return was solid given the lack of depth in the 2014 draft.

If we're making outcome based judgments then a case could be made the trade for Portland was one of the worst in recent NBA history. They went from a contender to full rebuild and a direct line could be drawn to the Batum trade as the first Domino.

"Could be" a couple of key words here, but there are absolutely no facts to backup any of this. Playing that game, I would say that Portland "could have" already knew that LMA was leaving. In "fact" many media outlets were reporting the very real possibility that LMA had several teams ahead of Portland on his list. It was kinda obvious to most people he wasn't returning. Their management team did what they had to do to rebuild around Lillard. Cho was dangling Zeller, and should have held firm with that unless he wanted to use the 9th pick this year instead. I would much rather have Vonleh and his many skills on both ends of the floor than Frank and his couple of skills on one end of the floor. Frank can shoot pretty good, would love to see him and Vonleh battle it out from behind the arc in a shootout. I could win lots of money from making bets

[stinger14]

That Portland trade was a huge "FU" to the remaining players and sacrificed the present for future potential. Ironically, the situation Charlotte wants to avoid with Batum and FA in 2016 and beyond.

Was pretty obvious LMA was not coming back.
Afflalo never liked being in Portland and it showed in his words and play
Matthews would be a big risk for a team that isn't contending without LMA
Lillard got a huge extension and the team is now his to lead
Robin Lopez was a free agent and not returning without LMA

I'm not sure how trading Batum coming off a bad year and entering his contract year is a big "fu" in any of these situations. They got a nice deal for a player that would have also left after one more year, because he wasn't sticking around for the rebuild either. They got the most skilled, talented, and biggest upside player that put on a Hornets jersey last year for him.

[316Hornets]

To really judge this trade, there must be an evaluation of how the Hornets obtained the 9th pick overall to begin with. This pick was basically a freebie thanks to taking the contract of Ben Gordon from the Pistons. In essence, Charlotte traded Corey Maggette for taking on Ben Gordon's contract and obtaining Nicolas Batum for at a minimum one year with possibility of longer. Looking at it this way, Charlotte did not lose out.

[Mystical Apples]

That Portland trade was a huge "FU" to the remaining players and sacrificed the present for future potential. Ironically, the situation Charlotte wants to avoid with Batum and FA in 2016 and beyond.

Was pretty obvious LMA was not coming back.
Afflalo never liked being in Portland and it showed in his words and play
Matthews would be a big risk for a team that isn't contending without LMA
Lillard got a huge extension and the team is now his to lead
Robin Lopez was a free agent and not returning without LMA

I'm not sure how trading Batum coming off a bad year and entering his contract year is a big "fu" in any of these situations. They got a nice deal for a player that would have also left after one more year, because he wasn't sticking around for the rebuild either. They got the most skilled, talented, and biggest upside player that put on a Hornets jersey last year for him.

Not sure what you're driving at here - I'm defending both Olshey and Cho for making decisions based upon information available to them and the perils of drawing outcome based conclusions.

We'll never know if LMA was already out the door - PDX says no - but we don't know. Or if Matthews will return to form. Or if Paul Allen privately refused to pay 4 max contracts. But what we do know is Portland traded an above average starter in exchange for,in part, future potential at the expense of the present. That's not a good look for guys wanting to win now. Say yeah it's an "FU"