EwingSweatsALot wrote:Good for Mully catching on with a contender. It is what he needs for his career. He can't make it as a starter or a 3rd big man off the bench with how his game is constructed now, which is what he was here and what he would be on another poor team. Have him as a 4th big man to come in and see if he can catch fire is a good fit for him. I just don't expect much out of him. I think he is what he is at this point unless he tries to redefine his game.
What I mean by that is his shot selection is extremely poor. I don't necessarily mean based on how he is defended, but just where he takes shots based on how good he is at taking them. I'll try to coherently explain further from a quick and somewhat small sample sized study I have done.
In the 2012-13 season, there were 13 7 footers that played 1000 minutes and attempted 500 shots. This includes Mullens. Mullens eFG% inside the paint last year was 53.42%, which is just above 1% below the other 12s average. So not great, but pretty good for what people consider an outside shooter. The issue here is though that only 28.6% of his attempts are inside the paint, where the average for the 7 footers is 65.17%. A rather staggering difference. So Mullens is average in the paint with the likes of some of the better big men in the game, but chooses to not go in the paint near as much as they do. His strength plays a factor in this, but a 37% difference factor? I don't know.
Now lets look outside the paint, what some would consider Mullens best attribute. Mullens eFG% outside of the paint is 40.8%, this actually happens to be 2.5% less than the average of the other guys. So for a guy that is touted as a shooter by some(Bonnell *cough cough*) he is actually pretty poor compared to the other 7 footers in the game. So where Mullens happens to put his most effort, 71.4% of his shots, he is actually pretty poor at when you make it relative to the others. We know Mullens loves the three at that is obvious, 37% of his shots are 3s which is way more than any other 7 footer(not shocking though). He shoots 4.5% below the other 7 footers, but it is highly skewed by Dirk. I would like to see him shoot less 3-pointers, but this isn't the real issue. The issue comes in the 2-pointers outside of the paint. He is about a little above average(3.5% more) with the other 7 footers when it comes to these attempts, but he shoots 8.5% below the average on these shots. His mid-range jumper is EXTREMELY poor when you throw it up against the other guys. These mid-range shots make him one of the most inefficient scorers in the NBA. He shoots just about most of his shots here, but compared to others he has his worst eFG%.
Now how does this get fixed? Veteran leadership and good coaching. If that doesn't work well then possibly a lobotomy. He has only been in the league four years, but he is a gunner. He LOVES to shoot. When that ball touches his hand, first thing he does is find the rim to see if he can get a shot off. This is what concerns me about him becoming a better player. Some guys just don't have it in them to change who they are. Maybe a little here and there, but you tend to be the guy you are. Not many change up their game a good bit at a young age. It tends to be the older guys having to change to stay around, not the younger guys. To fix it he needs to cut down on those mid range 2s or make an extreme effort to work on them. I'd cut down on those a lot, cut down on the threes a little and try to get in the paint some more. He is good enough in the paint and the restricted area to be the 3rd big man on a team. He just doesn't take his game there. His need to have his fix of outside shots is what is holding him back. Hopefully Paul and Doc can drive this into his brain because he has the athletic ability, but he tries to be someone he just can't be. If those two guys can't get him on the right direction then the Mully we saw will be the only Mully anyone ever sees.
I also know that being a better player is more than scoring. I just focused on this well because that's what Mullens does. He is a scorer, or wants/tries to be a scorer. I'd like to see him rebound the ball better too, but he just doesn't seem to have that in him. He is 12th out of the 13 guys I looked at in TRB%. This is one reason I really like Zeller because he has that rebound drive in him.
That's a pretty good summation of Mullens. As a Bucks fan, I watched Mullens have his 31pt 14 rbd, game against where he completely outplayed Ilyasova. I wondered why he had so many problems. With his size and athletic ability, Mullens has the potential to be a star player.
As many fans have pointed out, Mullens came into the league not only needing certain skills, he had a very low bb IQ. That has been his biggest problem as a pro, and one area where progress (or lack of it) will determine his future. He is actually playing smarter than when he first came into the league or even started playing with Charlotte. But to be fair, he also played with one of the most disorganized, least intelligent players and teams in the league. Mullens still has excellent athletic ability and a good outside shot. But even Paul Silas couldn't understand why Mullens didn't work harder for closer shots as he has a very good jump hook. He also showed signs last year of being a very good rebounder although his onball defense was still quite subpar. Nevertheless, if the Clippers and Chris Paul can improve Mullens bb IQ and he keeps working on his weak areas, the Clippers will have themselves a very valuable ballplayer.
