Fat's PG Rankings (2/3/2014 update pg 8)

[Stun704]

analytics back up Gilwalkers assessment, Kemba is a top 10 PG.

Paul, Westbrook, Curry, Parker, Irving, Rose, Williams, Rondo, Conley, Lawson.

At least, give me these 10 and admit that he's clearly not better than any of them. Kemba isn't a top 10 point guard.

Kemba, Conley, Lawson are on the same tier except Kemba has only been in the league for 2 full years.

I like Curry, but hes getting over hyped, hes a great offensive player and a flashy passer, but his defense leaves a lot to be desired and he has glass ankles.

[HornetJail]

analytics back up Gilwalkers assessment, Kemba is a top 10 PG.

Paul, Westbrook, Curry, Parker, Irving, Rose, Williams, Rondo, Conley, Lawson.

At least, give me these 10 and admit that he's clearly not better than any of them. Kemba isn't a top 10 point guard.

Conley, Lawson, Kemba, Holiday, and Lillard are all interchangeable. Rondo is going to be garbage by his standards next season, coming off an ACL and losing pretty much his entire team, replaced by a 30-plus-year-old Gerald Wallace. Who knows how much he even plays? Deron Williams was pretty up-and-down last year as well. Kemba breaking the top 10 isn't nearly as much a stretch as you think it is.

[thruthefire]

I'm with Lamar for the most part. I had similar things to say in the draft thread while discussing Trey Burke. Kemba had a very solid season, but there are 20 point guards who are capable of doing what he did. Now if he can play like he does at home on the road, that'd be a different story.

[fatlever]

Time for the new winter 2013/14 installment of Fat's Point Guard Rankings.

1. Chris Paul - Still the best and having an MVP type season.
2. Steph Curry - Since the 2012-13 playoffs started, he has been unstoppable.
3. Tony Parker - Numbers are down a tad this year, but he's probably playing at 75% effort most nights, reputation keeps him top 3.
4. Russell Westbrook - Finally rounding into form after the knee injury. Could pass Parker soon. Turnovers still his biggest issue.
5. Ty Lawson - Probably the last time he'll crack the top 5, but for now, he is deserving.
6. John Wall - He's been getting better and better since returning from injury. Having Beal helps.
7. Mike Conley - So efficient and great on defense, but I can't see him going any higher than #7.
8. Damian Lillard - Hard to rank him any lower as long as the Blazers are playing like a contender. Needs to finish at the rim better.
9. Kyrie Irving - I would have expected him to be where Lawson is, but he just cant seem to figure it all out. Too much talent to not be top 5 someday.
10. Eric Bledsoe - Playing better than I think even his biggest fans expected.
11. Goran Dragic - A career year or finally found a system that is perfect for his game? Probably a bit of both.
12. Isaiah Thomas - His PER says top 5, but his defense says otherwise. It needs to lead to wins before I move him any higher.
13. Jeff Teague - Great November, very average December. FG% is a concern. I had him top 10 just two weeks ago. The way he is playing recently he may fall out of the top 15 by the end of the month.
14. Kemba Walker - Mr Inconsistency. Top 10 some nights, 6th man others. He seems to have found a hot stretch and could ride it a few spots higher. His defense is very underrated.
15. Michael Carter-Williams - Can't stay on the floor long enough to move any higher, but when he has played, he has been amazing.
16. Jrue Holiday - If he were an ice cream flavor, he would be vanilla. Does everything good, nothing great.
17. Kyle Lowry - Not quite the player he was 3 years ago in Houston, but having his best year since, despite trade rumors.
18. Brandon Jennings - The assists are nice, but his defense is still awful and he only plays with one hand.
19. Ricky Rubio - I can't defend him in the top 15 any longer. The steals and assits are fantastic and his 3p% is improved, but his finishing at the rim is abysmal.
20. Jeremy Lin - Having a very solid year, despite seeing less minutes and fewer shots.
21. Deron Williams - Fool me once, shame on you, fool me 10 times, you move to #21.
22. George Hill - Lance now does most playmaking, so Hill can just focus on defense where he shines.
23. Trey Burke - Small sample size, but off to a good start. Should be top 20 by next ranking.
24. Jose Calderon - He can still pass and make 3s and score efficiently. Still cant do much else.
25. Reggie Jackson - The next hot young backup. Per 36 of 17.6ppg and 5.6apg on 47.5% shooting.
26. Jordan Crawford - Its probably more of a mirage than anything, but give him credit for a solid start to the season in place of Rondo.
27. Greivis Vasquez - Is limited by lack of quickness, but what he does - pass and hit mid-range shots over smaller defenders - he does very well.
28. Jarrett Jack - Not having quite the impact he did for the Warriors, probably should have stayed in San Fran.
29. Mario Chalmers - He works for Miami's system, has a ton of big game experience and doesn’t wilt under pressure. But, if he was the starting PG for any other team, they would be looking for a better option.
30. Patrick Beverly - Makes this list on his tenacious defense alone. Improved shot-making only a bonus.

Just missed the cut - Brandon Knight, Jameer Nelson, Nate Robinson, Ramon Sessions, Andre Miller, Raymond Felton, Steve Blake, Tony Wroten, Mo Williams, Norris Cole

Not ranked due to injury - Derrick Rose, Rajon Rondo and Steve Nash

Notes
- The toughest ranking for me was Thomas, Teague and Kemba at 12-14. Teague has been falling while Kemba is rising. Kemba probably moved up 3 spots in the last week alone, while Teague probably dropped 3 spots since the end of November. I still don't know if I trust the Thomas, but its hard to ignore his advanced stats.
- Other tough guys to rank were Rubio and Deron. Rubio plays such an unorthodox style its hard to compare him to anyone. I have been a big fan of his game and had him ranked much higher in my last ranking, but I dropped him because he has shown little (if any) improvement to his weaknesses. Deron just cant stay healthy long enough to get a good read on where he is as a player. At his best, he is still probably a top 10 guy, maybe.
- There is a massive drop-off between Paul/Curry/Parker/Westbrook and Lawson/Wall/Conley.
- George Hill is probably the most under-appreciated guy in this ranking, because he will probably get All-Star consideration this year. He sacrifices a lot of scoring and play-making on that team. His defense is part of the reason they are the best defensive team in the league. That being said, put him on any other team and I doubt he has the same kind of impact. He is in the perfect situation for his skills.
- Brandon Knight has been playing the best ball of his career the past 2 weeks. Hard to leave him out of the top 30.
- Most disappointing ranking has to be Kyrie Irving. Everyone thought he would be top 5 this year. He had an awful start to the season. His big scoring numbers aren't leading to wins. His defense is questionable and so is his leadership.
- Biggest jumps from last ranking to this ranking - Thomas, Dragic, Bledsoe, Jennings
- Biggest falls from last ranking to this ranking - Deron, Felton, Rubio, Jack

Enjoy!!!

[thruthefire]

Deron Williams will pass a lot of those guys soon, if he hasn't already. Lin should be higher, too. He sacrifices a lot of his game playing next to Harden, but has done really well nonetheless.

[JDR720]

21. Deron Williams - Fool me once, shame on you, fool me 10 times, you move to #21.

[HornetJail]

The point guard position is absolutely STACKED. There are about 17 point guards that are legitimately top 10-worthy in most years and that's with Rose and Rondo hurt.

[JazzMatt13]

In my book: (this year and if you take out "all-stars" Lillard, Curry, Westbrook, Paul, and Parker):

(based off most important player, overall stats, clutch, PG skills: AST, TO, FT and Pts, and then 3 pt)

1-Bledsoe
2-Walker
3-Wall
4-Burke
5-Lawson
6-Irving
7-Holiday
8-Thomas
9-Conley
10-Teague

[Marvel]

Is Curry's defense really that good or better to put him higher than Westbrook? And if i'm not mistaken Curry isn't exactly a beacon of low turnovers himself.

I'd put Westbrook above Curry.

[LamarMatic7]

When do we start wondering if Kyrie Irving is actually as good as we say he is?

He hasn't really improved since entering the league. I have a feeling that he was just as good as a rookie as he is now.

He's still as clueless and plays as half-heartedly on defense as he did in his first year.

Man, he sure does dribble a lot to create shots that half of the time aren't that good.

His teams haven't been close to finishing .500. You can blame it as much as you want on the organization and on the players around him but if he actually is that good shouldn't he be closer to .500 in the East with the somewhat solid players around him this year?

Reportedly is an arrogant dick, a revelation that disappointed me.

[LamarMatic7]

Not saying that he isn't a very good player but I'd say those are some red flags. I'm not as hyped about him as I was during his rookie year.

If I could pick any point guard I wanted for a playoffs game, I think I would take Kemba over him right now. And you know that I'm not biased when it comes to Kemba.

[catch20two]

I thought the light of day would never occur again the day somebody other than me questioned how good Kyrie Irving really is? He's crowned a superstar but superstars don't miss the playoffs and if they do it's just barely. Kyrie don't play defense and when he's asked to his offense take a major hit in efficiency. He's also a massive black hole that rival that of now-Carmelo and prime-Kobe. Kyrie is a byproduct of the NBA's hype machine so his day won't come anytime soon. At least not until his peers like Wall down to Kemba start making some playoff noise.

[Marvel]

No doubt. With the talent he has around him now, in the East no less, he should be carrying that team to a .500 record. He's all hype, no substance. Apparently, he's a real dick too which also surprised me.

[mrknowitall215]

If Kemba get voted into the All-Star Game (doubtful) and lead the 'lowly' Bobcats to a playoff birth (probable), he definitely should be considered a top 10 PG

I want to leave the rankings game alone, since I believe there's just too much parity in talent & skill level among today's point guards in the NBA. I honestly think Tony Parker should be considered as good as them all by default since he's a 3-time champion, then with my favorite player in Derrick Rose being bit by the injury bug in consecutive seasons I have no choice but to consider Russell Westbrook the best PG in the league right now within my own opinion. Chris Paul? Great player & team leader, but he's yet to show me that he can build on his performance & lead a team in the postseason. I'll do my top 5...

1. Russell Westbrook
2. Tony Parker
3. Chris Paul
4. Stephen Curry
5. ??? (up in the air)

[JDR720]

Kyrie is just a scorer, he doesn't make anyone else better

[Snidely FC]

Top PGs '13-'14 So Far by Bradford Doolittle, based on True WARP*

1.Chris Paul
2.Steph Curry
3.Russell Westbrook
4.Kyle Lowry
5.Damian Lillard
6.John Wall
7.Kyrie Irving
8.Isaiah Thomas
9.Ty Lawson
10.Mike Conley
11.Goran Dragic
12.Kemba Walker
13.MCW
14.Derrick Rose
15.Eric Bledsoe

*TrueWARP is a blend of a player's preseason baseline forecast and his 2013-14 results. The degree to which his season winning percentage has regressed against his forecast depends on his experience. Projections for younger players, especially rookies, have a much higher error bar than those for veteran players. Thus, the younger a player is, the more weight his 2013-14 results carry.

3. WARP is a calculation based on winning percentage, or per-possession efficiency, and playing time. For the playing time component, I've used actual minutes per game for this season to capture the size of role each player is holding down. Each player's TrueWARP is calculated on a per-82-game basis to filter out durability issues. We're strictly looking at a player's quality of on-court performance, not how often he's able to go out and apply it.

[mrknowitall215]

Top PGs '13-'14 So Far by Bradford Doolittle, based on True WARP*

1.Chris Paul
2.Steph Curry
3.Russell Westbrook
4.Kyle Lowry
5.Damian Lillard
6.John Wall
7.Kyrie Irving
8.Isaiah Thomas
9.Ty Lawson
10.Mike Conley
11.Goran Dragic
12.Kemba Walker
13.MCW
14.Derrick Rose
15.Eric Bledsoe

*TrueWARP is a blend of a player's preseason baseline forecast and his 2013-14 results. The degree to which his season winning percentage has regressed against his forecast depends on his experience. Projections for younger players, especially rookies, have a much higher error bar than those for veteran players. Thus, the younger a player is, the more weight his 2013-14 results carry.

3. WARP is a calculation based on winning percentage, or per-possession efficiency, and playing time. For the playing time component, I've used actual minutes per game for this season to capture the size of role each player is holding down. Each player's TrueWARP is calculated on a per-82-game basis to filter out durability issues. We're strictly looking at a player's quality of on-court performance, not how often he's able to go out and apply it.

Where is Tony Parker?

[Snidely FC]

Here's what he wrote about Parker@ #19

Parker's No. 13 ranking was the most controversial of any player's rating from the summer series, so I don't expect many warm sentiments stemming from Parker's six-place tumble in the update. The summer ranking wasn't really that bad. As mentioned in the intro, with the NBA being so point guard-heavy, the 13th-ranked point guard is still a top-25 player overall. The earlier rankings were based on a forecast, and the ATH system decided Parker had reached an age when players like him begin to lose value. In the real world, would I have taken 12 point guards before Parker? No -- I watched the Finals just like everybody else.

Parker has done little to boost his rating so far this season. In fact, he currently ranks 81st in the league in 2013-14 WARP. Much of that is by design, and Parker's numbers will probably go up as we near the postseason. He's shooting the 3-ball at a career-best clip, but he's getting to the line less frequently than he has in 10 years. Perhaps because of that more passive approach, Parker's drive-and-kick game has not been as prolific, and his assist rate has dropped to its lowest level in a decade. His minutes are also down. Can he do more? Sure. Will he? Almost certainly. But we can only measure what he has done, not what he's capable of doing.

[mrknowitall215]

Thanks. Sorry, but I can't trust no positional ranking system that place at least 5 point guards ahead of Tony Parker. Parker is a championship caliber player that has been the head of the Spurs in the more recent years while most of those other point guards on that list are still trying to figure out how to win consistently

[ball teacher]

1. Chris Paul
2. Kyrie Irving
3. Westbrook
4. Curry
5. Lillard
6. D. Williams
7. Conley
8. Parker
9. Bledsoe
11. Dragic
12. MCW
13. B. Knight
15. Wall
16. Teague
17. B Jennings
18. T. Burke
19. Rubio
20. Holiday
21. Kemba
22. G. Hill
23. Calderon
24. Lin
25. Hinrich
26. Nelson
27. Felton
28. I. Thomas
29. Lowry