Prospect Thread: James Wiseman

[yosemiteben]

I really don't understand the issue with Wiseman. His negative is... the lack of game tape?

For me, I actually think the answer is yes. I'm not opposed to rolling the dice on him if he's there, but that's probably because I don't think we have a sure thing available. I'd be fine with Okongwu as well.

I just have a very hard time being sold on a prospect that didn't play a meaningful game. His first 70 minutes of game time in college for me isn't enough to truly understand his game and his pros and cons as a prospect. The lack of game experience and tape for me means we don't have an opportunity to understand what other negatives he has.

[JMAC3]

My argument isn’t that center doesn’t matter at all, because it does matter. Obviously he would still help us, but at what opportunity cost?

Comparing this to RB in the NFL, obviously it’s an important position as they touch the ball 15-20 times a game, so why don’t teams spend top 5 picks on them constantly?

It’s because you can find guys in the 3rd/4th round who can be studs. There are more important positions to address like QB, OL, DE etc...

That’s how I feel about basketball- the QB are the superstar wing players. In order to get them you almost always have to spend high draft picks. Where as you can find centers later in the draft like Jarrett Allen, Bam, Capela, Gobert and I could name more.

The guys who win in the playoffs are elite wings.


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[Braggins]

I'm low on Wiseman compared to the other top prospects. When I thought we were picking at 8 I would have been okay with it. Here are some of my concerns.

1) Rebounding - A lot of people are saying that it would be great to have a top notch rebounder next to PJ. This is true, but to this point Wiseman has not demonstrated this ability. Given his physical tools he should be dominate on the glass, especially at lower levels.

This from the athletic:
https://theathletic.com/1802983/2020/05/08/2020-nba-draft-a-word-of-warning-on-james-wiseman/

The concerning plays might be easy to dismiss if Wiseman was an outright killer in high school. Instead, he was far less productive on the Nike EYBL circuit than, say, Sacramento Kings’ big man Marvin Bagley.

• Bagley’s 2017 EYBL stats: 15 games played, 25.8 points per game, 14.9 boards, 3.1 blocks, 54.6 percent from the field.

• Wiseman’s 2018 Nike EYBL stats: 16 games played, 15.0 points per game, 6.8 boards, 1.8 blocks, 48.7 percent from the field.

Ayton for the record was at 11 rpg, albeit in only 6 games played.

Wiseman also only rebound 10.6 boards in college. Two of those games were against South Carolina State and UIC. Both teams that had no one with the size or physical tools in the same league as Wiseman.

2) Limited College Sample Size - I went back over the past 10 years of drafts and the situation where a top 5 pick played so few games is somewhat unprecedented. Examples really only include Garland and Kyrie. It's a big risk to take someone with so little available tape with the 3rd pick. So much so it's almost never been done.

Factor the limited college games with his less than dominate high school tape makes me dubious of his ability to be one of the best players in the draft.

3) Limited Offensive Potential - Wiseman has never showed the ability to consistently hit 3s. He shoots 3s the same way Mo Bamba was said to a 3 pt shooter, hypothetical. He also has never shown much ability to pass the ball. If he is to a hub of the offense .3 apg in college and .7 apg in EYBL will not cut it. I see his role as PnR dive man, which has it uses as his catch radius and vertical athleticism will greatly benefit him.

His 10.6 rebounds in college, which should be more indicative of his rebounding ability, were in only 23mpg. Its obviously a very small sample, but his per100 possession numbers in those three games were absolutely absurd. 25.4 rebounds and 7.1 blocks per100. He also had a 150 offensive rating and 80 defensive rating. Against Oregon he put up 14/12 in 22 minutes.

I agree that his offensive role will be more of a dive/roll man, but he should be very good at that role. His shot may never get there, but comparing him to Bamba in this regard isn't that bad. Bamba so far has shot 33% from 3pt on 1.6 attempts per game (in very limited minutes).

[yosemiteben]

My argument isn’t that center doesn’t matter at all, because it does matter. Obviously he would still help us, but at what opportunity cost?

...

The guys who win in the playoffs are elite wings.

I don't disagree, but I also don't think that's the hand we were dealt. IMO, there's not an elite wing available.

[MPM]

My argument isn’t that center doesn’t matter at all, because it does matter. Obviously he would still help us, but at what opportunity cost?

...

The guys who win in the playoffs are elite wings.

I don't disagree, but I also don't think that's the hand we were dealt. IMO, there's not an elite wing available.

This is basically where I've landed. I get the value and need for a star wing, but there are no real clear-cut wing standouts in this year's draft - Avdija ain't it. Everyone seems higher on the PGs than I. Ball scares the life out of me - he looks like a lesser version of his direct genetic comp. Debates on the downfall of the big aside, this draft seems to offer more attractive frontcourt than backcourt/wing options (in my humble, and often wrong, opinion). Wiseman could be a long-term core piece at 3. I'd likely go Edwards, Wiseman, OO, Haliburton in that order.

[LofJ]

After watching some interviews of the top guys Wiseman is easily the most mature of the three. I don't think he'll have much trouble adjusting to NBA life and being a professional. That by itself isn't enough to put him over the other two, but it's definitely a substantial plus in my eyes.

[Rich4114]

I keep seeing people say the center position doesn’t matter anymore. That is true, until it does. It did in years past and it’s just the way teams played. Eventually someone will figure out how to make centers matter again in the right system that will set a new trend. If we utilize them properly and build our offense and defense to maximize the talent we have on the roster, then it could be done. Do we have the innovation on the coaching staff to do this in the way Golden State revolutionized the three pointer? Probably not. But I think the Hornets are going for straight talent and if Wiseman has more talent than anyone else available at 3 they will (and should) take him.

[JMAC3]

For those advocating for Wiseman. What are your vision for how he helps us win games?

What do you project his stat line to be?

Can he be a go to scorer in the final 5 mins of a game?


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[cornchip]

For those advocating for Wiseman. What are your vision for how he helps us win games?

What do you project his stat line to be?

Can he be a go to scorer in the final 5 mins of a game?


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I see him as somebody who hopefully can produce offensively at all three levels of the floor. Both a pick and pop/roll guy. Somebody who can occasionally get a couple of putback buckets...especially against small lineups. Can reliably knock down a midrange or 3 against a big thats playing off. Dont really see him having the motor or lateral quickness to be a great defender but he's a 7 footer with some athleticsm so he should be able to do a decent job of protecting the rim.

I think his stat line will depend on how well others progress but I'll be a very happy camper with 20-22 points and 8-10 rebounds on around 50% shooting with 35% from deep.

As far as being a go to scorer with 5 mins left...not really but he could be an option as he matures. I do think he would make Devonte or whomever our lead guard is better by being out there as a inside scoring presence who can knock down open shots.

Basically, I like his skillset and not necessarily looking at his position.

(This is in or close to his prime btw).

[DY_nasty]

For those advocating for Wiseman. What are your vision for how he helps us win games?

What do you project his stat line to be?

Can he be a go to scorer in the final 5 mins of a game?


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I don't think any rookie should really be a go-to scorer late fwiw. He can pick that up as he goes.

And we get mauled inside out far too often. Relying on a flat footed Cody, an overwhelmed biz, or a wholly incompetent WHG has been so normalized that I don't think people understand the hole we put ourselves in every night by calling that a competent front court.

I think a really conservative expectation of a net positive 14/6 out of him rookie year is more than enough to give this team some real options and defensive stability in the paint alongside PJ. Enough for our guards to build some genuine consistency as well. There's no real stat for how hard it is for guards to adjust to poor play from their bigs.

[James Gatz]

I don't understand why people are projecting him to be able to hit 3s. It feels like something a media person wrote that he hypothetically could do and the narrative has gained a life of its own. He very well might but the same could said for any prospect. It doesn't make sense to bank on that for a player who through his entire career has not taken or made 3 pointers consistently.

[BeesWax]

I don't understand why people are projecting him to be able to hit 3s. It feels like something a media person wrote that he hypothetically could do and the narrative has gained a life of its own. He very well might but the same could said for any prospect. It doesn't make sense to bank on that for a player who through his entire career has not taken or made 3 pointers consistently.

I think it has to do with his shot. He has nice form and hit threes in high school and on the AAU circuit. Now whether or not that can translate to a NBA game is yet to be seen but he does have some signs that he may be able to add that to his game.

[James Gatz]

He didn't shoot well in AAU though. He made 4 out of 27 attempts and has never shown to be even a good free throw shooter.

I don't want to keep trying to trash the kid, but if people on this board want us to use #3 on him then we should realize he's a bit of a plodding rim runner with a great catch radius, who has some upside as a good/great drop coverage rim protector. He's not an elite rebounder, shooter, or switch guy.

Wiseman attempted one three-pointer at Memphis and missed it. In the EYBL, he went 4-for-27 (14.8 percent) from three-point range as a rising senior. Free throw percentage is also seen a big indicator of future shooting potential. Wiseman hit just 55.4 percent of 101 free throw attempts on the EYBL, but was much better at Memphis. Wiseman knocked down 19-of-27 shots from the foul line for the Tigers, good for a respectable 70.4 percent.

https://www.sbnation.com/nba/2019/12/21/21031750/james-wiseman-nba-draft-2020-memphis-tigers-scouting-report

[DY_nasty]

Very fair.

I just gotta reiterate that not every big needs to be a deep threat from day one (or at all) to be a positive impact in the NBA. Really weird hangup imo. Pau Gasol didn't hit double digit 3pt makes in a season until he was 34 - and the guy found a way to be relevant in both the early 2000s isoball era and the sped up play in the generation to follow.

[wilson115]

3) Limited Offensive Potential - Wiseman has never showed the ability to consistently hit 3s. He shoots 3s the same way Mo Bamba was said to a 3 pt shooter, hypothetical. He also has never shown much ability to pass the ball. If he is to a hub of the offense .3 apg in college and .7 apg in EYBL will not cut it. I see his role as PnR dive man, which has it uses as his catch radius and vertical athleticism will greatly benefit him.

Andre Drummond had about the same passing numbers in the NCAA (0.4 apg) but there was a time when Stan Van Gundy used him as a facilitating big man.

What separates Drummond from others is almost none of those elbow touches turn into points for himself. They’re a way for him to set up his teammates instead. Of his 58 assists on the season, 10 have come from elbow touches. Similar to his post-up tendencies, Drummond is passing on 68.9 percent of his elbow touches and scoring on only 23.6 percent of them....

Drummond’s inability to space the floor doesn’t prevent those plays from working. It’s best to think of them as an alternative to a traditional pick-and-roll. By playing off of Drummond, the defense is at risk of the ball handler pulling-up or getting into the paint off the dribble when they turn the corner. They’re also at risk of Drummond getting deep position on the roll, whether it leads to an alley-oop or an offensive rebound. If the threat of either of those brings an additional defender into the picture, it then creates opportunities for shooters on the perimeter....

The combination has completely transformed how the Pistons operate this season. They’ve seen their frequency in the post fall dramatically from 8.6 percent to 3.1 percent, paving the way for more handoffs and spot-up opportunities, both of which are far more efficient shot attempts. While he doesn’t have a hand in every single one of those possessions, establishing Drummond as a threat away from the basket as a passer and screener helps him push the limits of how much he can space the floor as a complete non-shooter.

https://fansided.com/2017/11/22/andre-drummond-pistons-post-up-passing/
https://fansided.com/2020/07/10/nylon-calculus-andre-drummond-facilitator/

He didn't need to turn into Jokic to step into the role, this was as much about the personnel around Drummond though being well-coordinated for a big body obviously helped. It seems Wiseman's at least as athletic and fluid entering the league, so if he keeps it simple and uses his size for screens and seeing above the defense there's hope he can thrive in the role like Andre did. Not saying Wiseman won't ever improve his shooting but it's not the only way he can help an NBA offense.

My worry about Wiseman is the mental part. Can he settle for playing enabler instead of looking for his shot every time? Watching him jack up one-legged fadeaways isn't encouraging, but then again it might all come down to environment.

[Soul Rebel]

With DG, Miles and PJ surrounding Wiseman, I don’t see a need to hit the 3ball as important. I do think Wiseman needs to be able to step out and hit a shot from the perimeter and not just be a guy that gets his points from inside the paint strictly. I also think he has shown this ability in the limited tape and is agile/athletic enough to build off of that at only 19.

[James Gatz]

Drummond without the elite defensive rebounding is probably where I see Wiseman projecting to be in most outcomes. I'm personally low on Drummond as a player who helps you win championships, but if you disagree I understand wanting to take him.

[LofJ]

Drummond without the elite defensive rebounding is probably where I see Wiseman projecting to be in most outcomes. I'm personally low on Drummond as a player who helps you win championships, but if you disagree I understand wanting to take him.

But Wiseman is an elite rebounder, he's far and away the best defensive rebounder in this class, no one else comes close.

[Liver_Pooty]

Wiseman is waaaaaaay more mobile and athletic than Drummond. I looked to see how his measurables compared to Gobert. Sane height. Wingspan 7'6 compared to Goberts insane 7'8.5. His standing reach is also a couple inches shy of Goberts but he definitely has the tools to be a terrific defender

[James Gatz]

Drummond without the elite defensive rebounding is probably where I see Wiseman projecting to be in most outcomes. I'm personally low on Drummond as a player who helps you win championships, but if you disagree I understand wanting to take him.

But Wiseman is an elite rebounder, he's far and away the best defensive rebounder in this class, no one else comes close.

The numbers don't support and neither does the eye test of people who watched all of his tape. In AAU he averaged 6.1 rpg game. What makes you think he's elite outside the fact he has the physical tools that make you assume he should be?