Fun with Stats!!!

[EwingSweatsALot]

Weird thing about the FG% Diff if you look at players is how poorly MKG is doing. He is the only player on the team to allow a better FG% from both 2 and 3 point range. +2.2% and 5.5% respectively. Based off limit data and only being able to just 2s and 3s and not distance, he's allowing +10.06 points per 100 attempts to his opponents. The only player on the team that is worse is Frank at 17.48. MKGs biggest issue is behind the arc. Stephanie Ready even pointed out a play last night where he helped too much that led to an open three that he couldn't get back out on. He tends to do this a lot when he digs on drives too. He recovers very well when a defender gets by him when he closes out. But he struggles doing the opposite when he digs and tries to get back out.

Sessions is actually the best on the team with 40+ attempts defended at -36.41 Pts/100Att. While Kemba is the best with 50+ attempts defended at -15.60.

[EwingSweatsALot]

Best Hornets Lineups

5 Man
- >= 5 GP and >=10 MPG
- Walker, Batum, MKG, Marv, Zeller (+/- 3.9, 4th)

4 Man
- Walker, Batum, Marv, Zeller (+/- 4.8, 15th)
- Walker, Barnum, MKG, Marv (+/- 4.1, 23rd)

3 Man
- Walker, Batum, Zeller (+/- 7.1, 12th)
- Walker, Batum, Marv (+/- 5.1, 26th)
- Batum, Marv, Zeller (+/- 5.0, 29th)

2 Man
- Walker, Batum (+/- 8.4, 12th)
- Batum, Zeller (+/- 7.4, 16th)
- Walker, Zeller (+/- 7.0, 20th)


The Clippers dominate every category. The Batum Walker two man Lineup would technically be 3rd if you looked at per team. The Clippers have the top 10 and then it's Curry/Durant and then Walker/Batum. Similar for the 3 man as well.

[Mystical Apples]

Rim Protection of course but I've found higher R-squared in several offensive metrics. For example Assists/TO, specifically secondary assists/live ball turnovers is ~ .47 with total net rating and ~ .33 with defense.

Other usual and unusual suspects include offensive eFG (massive), contested defensive rebounds, blocks against, mid-range fg% on pull ups. ISO defense and ISO offense PPP if I recall ~ .25 to .30

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[yosemiteben]

Hornets have the second lowest contested defensive rebounding %, behind ORL and with Utah, PHX, and CLE rounding out the top 5. We had the lowest % the previous two seasons. Seems like we do a solid job of preventing teams from even trying to crash the glass, which to me seems sort of counterintuitive because we aren't much of a transition offense team so there's little downside to attacking the offensive glass against us.

We also are ranked 6th in "adjusted defensive rebound chance %" , which takes into account "deferred defensive rebound chances." Full disclosure, I don't know what that means. Anyone know what deferred defensive rebound chances are?

[fatlever]

Deferred defensive rebounds are what I do on Tuesdays - "ah, **** it, somebody else will get it, I'm too tired to jump"

[Mystical Apples]

This is 2016-17 playmaking efficiency data. I pulled and compiled the chart about 10 days ago so it's after ~ 20 games.

Short version, it shows Playmaking Efficiency vs Playmaking Usage. I didn't adjust it for team efficiency or by position average.....if I had Batum and Kaminsky would shoot right and up, Draymond and Iggy right and down, etc....

Top right = good
Bottom left =bad.
Green = Top NBA offenses....you get the idea

R-Squared for team *Net Rating* is close to .50. In other words, above every play type.

[fatlever]

^What factors are involved in creating playmaking efficiency?

[bravor]

Since december is almost over now, we have about 2 months of competition and a good sample between home games and away games, including road trips.
What concerns me more than the debate about the 3 pointers from opponents is the lack of efficiency in the 4th quarter. Some will argue that the offense is fine, but i am among the people who think it is still a work in progress as well as the defense.

Obviously, giving more minutes to Belinelli in the 4th is still bringing more positive than negative. But considering his stellar percentages, it could turn pretty bad fast if he just comes back to his career averages.
If MKG is not the answer (opponent's stats are bad for him), Lamb should be geting some minutes in the crunch time as well (best mix between limited opponent's % & scoring and efficiency in offense for the wings for now).

4th quarter stats

4th quarter stats in december

opponents scoring in the 4th
Opponent clutch stats

Maybe benching Batum in the 4th (or at least not closing with him) could provide a boost and more clutch plays from the team untill Kemba recovers his magic. But as Mystical and others said in the Opp_3P thread, some adjustments have to be made if there is no incoming trade in the near future.
I just don't see how this team could perform at elite level if MKG does not improve his game. It also shows that geting another 3D would not be a luxury (if Lamb does not get more 4th 1/4 minutes at Batum/MKG's detriment).
On the defensive end, Hornets don't provoke enough turnovers (especially in the clutch). But the team is average in opponent's points in the clutch (not so bad then when you see the opponent's field goal percentage..) but that is the counterpart of locking the defensive rebound (i guess).

[catch20two]

Yea our 4th quarter play especially the defense is horrendous. A lot of that has to do with our lack of frontcourt depth. Zeller is essentially the only big that we have that's playing at a at least average to above average level. It shows with him being the only player with a positive net on the season besides Lamb in the 4th quarter.

Weird because we excelled in the 4th quarter last season. I can honestly say that I miss Big Al as a backup C at this point. Oh and Lin as a backup PG.

[yosemiteben]

Good starting point piece here on impact of Hibbert on Frank's shooting: http://queencityhoops.com/blog/is-roy-hibbert-the-biggest-reason-for-frank-kaminskys-struggles/

Decided to go play with nbawowy to see how Hibbert impacts others' shooting (link to Roy on - http://nbawowy.com/imwavzrxjihgx8s61ngjpp66r, link to Roy off - http://nbawowy.com/tfsne8elxncvaq2l8d2w3ik9).

I'll start out with the oddity - so far this season, Kemba has actually shot better (much, much better) from the perimeter with Roy on the floor than with him off of it.

Kemba shooting with Roy on (263 minutes, not huge but not nothing): 48% from 2, 51% from three, 62.7% TS
Kemba shooting with Roy off (976 minutes): 50% from 2, 39.6% from 3, 57.9% TS

However, Kemba is the outlier. Batum, Lamb, Frank, and Belinelli all shoot better when Roy is off vs. on (technically Belinelli shoots better from 3, weirdly he's much worse from 2 without Roy).

Lamb shooting with Roy on (206 minutes): 44.9% from 2, 18.2% from 3 (wtf???), 44.4% TS
Lamb shooting with Roy off (264 minutes): 58.5% from 2, 28.6% from 3, 29.5% TS (wow, compared to 44.4% w/ Roy)

Belinelli shooting with Roy on (287 minutes): 50.7% from 2, 39.5% from 3, 56.6% TS
Belinelli shooting with Roy off (287 minutes): 36.5% from 2 (weird, didn't expect a drop in 2PT% w/o Roy), 46.8% from 3, 57.5% TS

Frank shooting with Roy on (263 minutes): 42.1% from 2, 24.5% from 3, 44.4% TS
Frank shooting with Roy off (263 minutes): 47.3% from 2, 29.5% from 3, 48.9% TS

Batum shooting with Roy on (279 minutes): 47.1% from 2, 29.3% from 3, 50.4% TS
Batum shooting with Roy off (964 minutes): 43.9% from 2, 34.0% from 3, 53.3% TS


I also ran numbers for Spencer on / Roy off (link - http://nbawowy.com/#/q4hqz4ma7yld5ut5sox1ug14i) vs. Roy on / Spencer off (link - http://nbawowy.com/#/rsqdyhpy1omfnvm1rpvjf9a4i), and expected to see a significant improvement in shooting and team offensive performance when switch Hawes and Roy. I was surprised to see that this is not the case.

Spencer on / Roy off: team PPP is 1.046, team TS% is 52.3%, team 3PT% is 29.9%, assists per 100 is 26.3
Roy on / Spencer off: team PPP is 1.079, team TS% is 53.9%, team 3PT% is 35.5% (wow, we shoot much better from 3 with Roy), assists per 100 is 20.0

Seems like Roy might be getting an artificial bump by having a few games where he started, so I ran the stats again for (1) Roy on / Spencer and Kemba off vs. Spencer on / Roy and Kemba off, (2) Roy on / Spencer and Nic off vs. Spencer on / Roy and Nic off, then finally for (3) Roy on / Spencer, Nic, and Kemba off vs. Spencer on / Roy, Nic, and Kemba off. For lineups (1) and (2), there isn't much of a difference offensively or defensively, which I thought was interesting. For lineup (3) though, it's basically what you would expect - we are better offensively with the Spencer lineup by pretty much the same amount that we are better defensively with the Roy lineup. For that third lineup, we are dealing with only 117 minutes with the Roy lineup and 167 minutes with the Spencer lineup, so dealing with pretty small sample sizes.

Verdict? Not positive, there is a lot of data there, but it appears that Spencer vs. Roy doesn't have that much of an impact on the second unit's performance.

[fatlever]

http://fansided.com/2017/01/11/nylon-calculus-pt-pm-halfway-nba-season/

Not sure the value of this stat, but figured I'd filter by Hornets just to see. Kemba in the very top right, Frank in the very bottom left.

Plus on defense
MKG
Kemba
Hawes
Cody
Sessions?
Marvin
Batum (neutral)

Plus on offense
Kemba
Cody
Marco
Batum
Lamb
Sessions


Frank and Roy only two that fell in the minus on both offense and defense

[yosemiteben]

Our traditional starting lineup (Kemba, Nic, MKG, Marv, and Zeller) has a net rating of 19.6 in the second half - 112.0 ORTG, 92.4 DRTG

That lineup is second only to GSW's starting lineup and there is a significant gap between that lineup and LAC's lineup which is third in net rating (limited to lineups with 100 minutes played).

Interestingly, change that to net rating in the first half and our starting lineup has a net rating of -1.3, which is 17th out of 27 qualifying lineups.

Those numbers are for the full season, but they generally remain true if you run them for the last 15 games.

Moral of the story - we need to get our heads in the damn game at tip off.

[fatlever]

^ Anyone have any ideas why that unit seems to struggle in first half? Are they all too passive? Too nice? Only play hard when they get behind or yelled at?

Is it a testament to their collective bball IQs, able to make changes at halftime? Or does that credit to go coaches for halftime changes?

Are they just all a bunch of guys who need to get warmed up before playing at their best?

[yosemiteben]

I was going to say that I thought Batum was the culprit and that maybe he is just a rhythm guy that needs to get into the flow before he can be effective, but I pull the stats on him and he is a significantly better first half shooter (42.6% FG, 36.3% 3PT) than second half shooter (36.5% FG, 28.0% 3PT) so there goes that.

[yosemiteben]

Looked at 1st half vs. 2nd half stats (pretty simple stats, didn't feel like doing a deep dive) and have the following observations:

1st half performers with big 2nd half drop offs - Batum and MKG straight suck at scoring in the second half and have significant drop off compared to their 1st half performance.

1st half duds with big 2nd half improvements - Marv has been just terrible in the first half (37% FG, 29% 3PT) but then catches fire in the second half (43.6% FG, 45.3% 3PT). Kemba, Marco, and Frank all have significant improvements in efficiency in the second half compared to the first half.

Interesting how balanced the scoring is on this team, both on the whole and on a half by half basis. There aren't really only major swings in scoring output in 1st half vs. 2nd half.

player
1st half stats
2nd half stats

Kemba
10.5 pts, 42.8% FG, 41.1% 3PT, 55.2% TS, 1.9 boards, 2.6 assists, 1.1 tos, 0.2 +/-
12.6 pts, 49.2% FG, 42.4% 3PT, 61.0% TS, 2.2 boards, 2.8 assists, 1.2 tos, 3.9 +/-

Batum
7.6 pts, 42.6% FG, 34.7% 3PT, 54.8% TS, 3.4 boards, 3.0 assists, 1.3 tos, -0.3 +/-
6.9 pts, 36.2% FG, 30.6% 3PT, 48.7% TS, 3.9 boards, 2.9 assists, 1.3 tos, 3.3 +/-

MKG
5.8 pts, 48.4% FG, X% 3PT, 52.7% TS, 3.9 boards, 0.9 assists, 0.5 tos, 0.9 +/-
3.3 pts, 39.2% FG, X% 3PT, 46.9% TS, 3.6 boards, 0.4 assists, 0.3 tos, 1.3 +/-

Marv
5.2 pts, 37.6% FG, 29.8% 3PT, 47.9% TS, 3.2 boards, 0.5 assists, 0.5 tos, -1.7 +/-
5.6 pts, 43.6% FG, 45.3% 3PT, 58.0% TS, 2.4 boards, 0.8 assists, 0.2 tos, 3.5 +/-

Cody
4.9 pts, 55.8% FG, X% 3PT, 59.8% TS, 2.9 boards, 0.7 assists, 0.5 tos, 1.5 +/-
5.9 pts, 61.5% FG, X% 3PT, 64.4% TS, 3.6 boards, 0.7 assists, 0.7 tos, 3.6 +/-

Marco
4.2 pts, 39.6% FG, 40.3% 3PT, 50.8% TS, 1.1 boards, 0.9 assists, 0.4 tos, -1.1 +/-
6.6 pts, 46.7% FG, 39.6% 3PT, 62.8% TS, 1.5 boards, 1.0 assists, 0.5 tos, 1.2 +/-

Frank
4.7 pts, 36.7% FG, 29.7% 3PT, 46.6% TS, 1.8 boards, 0.8 assists, 0.3 tos, 0.3 +/-
5.2 pts, 41.1% FG, 32.6% 3PT, 50.8% TS, 2.4 boards, 1.0 assists, 0.7 tos, 0.1 +/-

Left off Sessions, Hawes, Roy, and Lamb because they play too few minutes / are hurt / I'm lazy.

[yosemiteben]

Took a look at the hustle stats calculator and I think it's pretty interesting, though not sure how meaningful.

Screen assists - 2nd
Deflections - 29th (makes sense, not how we defend)
Loose balls covered - 29th (again makes sense, we don't generate a lot of loose balls)
Charges drawn - 6th (thanks Kemba)
Contested 2PTAs - 7th
Contested 3PTAs - 3rd
Contested shots - 1st

[Mystical Apples]

Clearing the cue here's Kemba's eFG% with teammates he's played > 1000 minutes with since 2014. For current teammates on the list I separated 2016....If you consider player stature in conjunction with PnR requirements (ie + DHO for Nic-Cody) v PnP floor placement angles on side hedges the reason for the outlier becomes obvious.

The other being Kemba's personal arc the last 2 seasons. And Kemba's TS of 64.9% with FK would be 2nd after Kevin Durant.

[yosemiteben]

2016-17 rank in C&S 3's - 22nd in percentage (36.3%), 15th in attempts (19.1)
2015-16 rank in C&S 3's - 8th in percentage (38.0%), 1st in attempts (22.3).

2016-17 rank in pull-up 3's - 15th in percentage (32.9%), 9th in attempts (7.9)
2015-16 rank in pull-up 3's - 10th in percentage (31.1%), 11th in attempts (6.9)

[Vanderbilt_Grad]

1. Marv, Nic, & Kemba were having great years last year. Not so much this year.
2. Lin & Lee really helped with last year's production. They are missed, especially Lin.
3. Frank's usage is increasing this year vs last. Haven't done the research but he seems to shoot better after a dribble or three.

[yosemiteben]

Tom Haberstroh ‏@tomhaberstroh 3h3 hours ago
@JustinThomasNBA Hornets rank 2nd-worst FG% on "wide-open" 2s, 6th-worst on "w-o" 3s. Check this out: http://on.nba.com/2jBHsaw


Ewww