Not In The Face - The Jeremy Lin Thread 3 + 1

[rallydurham]

Lol for giving him a full win for any one game


Lin plays at around .07 wins produced/48 minutes

So he's gotta play about 14 × .07 = 1 win 14 x 48 = ~700 minutes

Since he only averages about 25 minutes he produces a win about every 28 games

[TinmanZBoy]

Lol for giving him a full win for any one game

dude, seriously... why don't you buy a dozen pieces of tofu, then yourself... it is more fun than this..

[Appwrangler]

Yep, Lin sounds different now than right after the series. He's begun to process what went on and wants to do as much as possible on the court in the coming seasons. It sounds like it means exploring all of his options and then going with what seems to be best by whatever criteria and process he goes about doing it. It may mean a Lin appreciation thread here, or not. Right now, let him rest, chill out and try to enjoy his time off until he prepares for FA negotiations, considerations and then working on his game off-season.

I've given up on analyzing his words or thoughts, one day it's this one day it's that, who the heck knows I bet that he doesn't even know of his true intentions yet. It'll be real interesting to see what type of offers he gets, including from the Hornets.

I don't think we should analyze his words or thoughts. I think we should just wait and see what happens. And, you're right. We'll see what the Hornets do. They are now putting their efforts into the pitch to Nic. Then what? And will Nic ask to have x, x, x, players back to stay? I don't know if he can but if he does, then what? It's all a bunch of if's now.

Hey cut that out! I don't have a lot of time to post but I love taking a break and coming to the forum to read the latest Hornets news. Between now and the start of FA there is no Charlotte news, nothing. Okay maybe an alien abduction (possibly already happened with some fans). So if we don't analyze everyone's thoughts or words this place is going to be awful quiet.

[chshen]

Rally is a troll, if you did not realize.

I won't call him a troll but I think he severely underrates Lin. He all but said Lin would not be a factor in the playoffs yet Lin was instrumental in all 3 wins and said Lin is a below-average guard where he is at worse, average.

I don't think he is a troll, but might be a boxer.
Maybe Lin did not dominate a lot of wins. But just look at the Hammer of this season, so many people valued Lin's contribution.
I think Lin also felt the supporting from Hornets fans, and it's enough.

If Lin want more money or minutes which Charlotte does not want to offer (and others can), then let Lin go and keep friendship.

[tonman]

Lol for giving him a full win for any one game


Lin plays at around .07 wins produced/48 minutes

So he's gotta play about 14 × .07 = 1 win 14 x 48 = ~700 minutes

Since he only averages about 25 minutes he produces a win about every 28 games

You can make stats say what you wanna. Doesn't mean that is what gonna happen. Someone came up with win shares and now its the end all. Right..........

[rallydurham]

Well I mean it's obviously a fairly representative way to look at things. Certainly more objective than the guys in this thread who believe he's the 2nd best player on the team

[m40]

This past year was a step in the right direction, but I know there's another level I can get to. So as I approach the off-season, I will keep working on my game. Next year my jumper will be way better. I will come back a much better player. I want to keep having fun on the court (like I did this past year). For free agency, I will seek out every opportunity that gives me the greatest chance to be the best player I can be. I believe I'm just getting started. I have more to give and more to accomplish.

I'm excited to see what God has for me in the future! But for now, time to rest, recover and recharge myself physically and mentally. So on that note, I'm off to vacation!!

P.S had to leave you guys with one last hairdo

This message from Lin sound much better as for wanting to explore every opportunity that gives him the greatest chance to be the best player that he can be.

Maybe his agent got to him and let him know it wasn't smart to already be offering Charlotte a discount for his service...At least wait and see how many minutes Clifford is planning to play you next year when MKG is back....So that message sound less desperate and it feels like Lin will at least listen to any offers being presented to him.

"but I know there's another level I can get to. So as I approach the off-season, I will keep working on my game. Next year my jumper will be way better. I will come back a much better player. I want to keep having fun on the court (like I did this past year). For free agency, I will seek out every opportunity that gives me the greatest chance to be the best player I can be. I believe I'm just getting started. I have more to give and more to accomplish."

Agree. Sounds like Lin has a better mind and think twice after calm down a bit from the playoff.
His messages show that he is definitely open to every team as long as he has more minutes with better supports or even a starting PG in a Playoff team.

If Lin comes to Nets, I don't think Nets cannot enter Playoff because Nets can also sign one or more SG/PF/C to support Lin's PnR.
Another choice could be Bull, if they can manage to trade Rose out and get Lin in the line.

[SWedd523]

Actually he averaged just over 23 minutes a night with MKG in the lineup versus an average of 26 for the season as a whole. During that time, specifically, his minutes seemed to be directly related to his scoring efficiency. Three of those six nights he shot 50% or better and, in turn, saw an average of 28 minutes per game. The three other games he shot terribly (combined average of 17.4%) and received an average of 19 minutes per game.

Your doing your maths wrong, bruh, or manipulating the numbers to suit your needs, which is probably worse. MKG only played 7 games for the Hornets in 2015-16. In those games that MKG played and JLin came off the bench, which is 4: Lin only played 21.25 minutes per game, compared with 26.5 minutes/game in the season without MKG. Lin also only took 6.75 shots/game, compared with 9.4 shots/game the rest of the season without MKG. It's even worse if you look at the 3 games after the first game MKG came back where Lin came off the bench: 6 shots per game in 19 minutes per game. Lin's complete usage numbers with MKG are inflated, because in 2 of the 6 games, another important player was injured and Lin started.

All in all, this completely confirms the significantly reduced role Lin will have if Walker, Batum, and MKG are to return. He will, as we mentioned before, likely play between 15-20 minutes/game, while shooting around 6 times/game. Again, I'm sure this likely will not allow him to play to his potential lol.

I won't lie - it would be disappointing as a fan for him to come back and only play 15 minutes next year. I might finally understand what Euphorbus feels like every game.

I'll admit, most of my maths are in MOA and MILs these days, but I feel like even I can do the basic maths, bruh.

MKG played 7 games for Charlotte this year, Game #s 47-53: http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/k/kiddgmi01/gamelog/2016/

In those 7 games, Lin appeared in 6 of them. You can go to Lin's gamelog (http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/l/linje01/gamelog/2016/#336-341-sum:pgl_basic) and highlight the range from 48-53 so bballref can do the maths, but I'll do it here so I can show my work:

#48 against LAL = 22 minutes, 6 points, 5 assists, 5, rebounds (2-10 shooting)
#49 against CLE = 32 minutes, 24 points, 8 assists, 5 rebounds (7-13 shooting)
#50 against MIA = 16 minutes, 6 points, 3 assists, 2 rebounds (1-6 shooting)
#51 against WAS = 23 minutes, 7 points, 1 assist, 0 rebounds (3-5 shooting)
#52 against CHI = 18 minutes, 2 points, 2 assists, 3 rebounds (1-7 shooting)
#53 against IND = 28 minutes, 14 points, 4 assists, 5 rebounds (5-9 shooting)

everything in the minutes column added up is 139. Divide that by 6 and you get an average of

just over 23 minutes a night with MKG in the lineup

So my maths seem to be looking okay. But speaking of manipulating numbers to suit needs. Why would you only include his minutes off the bench? Just because he started the other two games doesn't mean those minutes disappear. Injuries happen, and the 6th man (Lin) is going to be asked to step up and start. We're already dealing with a very small sample size, don't make it even smaller just so you can manipulate the numbers to suit your needs.

Look up at that makeshift table for the red bolded. Ignoring the fact that this stretch of games was far from Lin's best, in that he only hit double digit scoring twice despite Batum being out for a couple of games and him starting and averaging 23 minutes a night.... his minutes are directly correlated to his production. Those three bolded nights shooting a miserable 17% from the floor, he got reduced minutes. No ****. Anybody not named Kemba or Batum would.

He averaged just under 28 minutes a game WITH MKG IN THE LINEUP in the nights when he was shooting well. I don't see how anybody can complain about that, even if they do have an agenda to push. It also seems to fly in the face of that completely confirmed reduced role you seem to believe in, since what it really is, is "role completely tied to production regardless of who is on the team or floor"

[Snidely FC]

JLIn takes a crazy amount of abuse driving into the teeth of the defense. My experience watching the NBA tells me players like that tend to have careers shortened. Maybe a partnership alongside Kemba, versus bolting to a 40 minute per game job elsewhere, presents a wise career longevity move that is attractive to Mr. Lin?

[Travers]

Your doing your maths wrong, bruh, or manipulating the numbers to suit your needs, which is probably worse. MKG only played 7 games for the Hornets in 2015-16. In those games that MKG played and JLin came off the bench, which is 4: Lin only played 21.25 minutes per game, compared with 26.5 minutes/game in the season without MKG. Lin also only took 6.75 shots/game, compared with 9.4 shots/game the rest of the season without MKG. It's even worse if you look at the 3 games after the first game MKG came back where Lin came off the bench: 6 shots per game in 19 minutes per game. Lin's complete usage numbers with MKG are inflated, because in 2 of the 6 games, another important player was injured and Lin started.

All in all, this completely confirms the significantly reduced role Lin will have if Walker, Batum, and MKG are to return. He will, as we mentioned before, likely play between 15-20 minutes/game, while shooting around 6 times/game. Again, I'm sure this likely will not allow him to play to his potential lol.

I won't lie - it would be disappointing as a fan for him to come back and only play 15 minutes next year. I might finally understand what Euphorbus feels like every game.

I'll admit, most of my maths are in MOA and MILs these days, but I feel like even I can do the basic maths, bruh.

MKG played 7 games for Charlotte this year, Game #s 47-53: http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/k/kiddgmi01/gamelog/2016/

In those 7 games, Lin appeared in 6 of them. You can go to Lin's gamelog (http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/l/linje01/gamelog/2016/#336-341-sum:pgl_basic) and highlight the range from 48-53 so bballref can do the maths, but I'll do it here so I can show my work:

#48 against LAL = 22 minutes, 6 points, 5 assists, 5, rebounds (2-10 shooting)
#49 against CLE = 32 minutes, 24 points, 8 assists, 5 rebounds (7-13 shooting)
#50 against MIA = 16 minutes, 6 points, 3 assists, 2 rebounds (1-6 shooting)
#51 against WAS = 23 minutes, 7 points, 1 assist, 0 rebounds (3-5 shooting)
#52 against CHI = 18 minutes, 2 points, 2 assists, 3 rebounds (1-7 shooting)
#53 against IND = 28 minutes, 14 points, 4 assists, 5 rebounds (5-9 shooting)

everything in the minutes column added up is 139. Divide that by 6 and you get an average of

just over 23 minutes a night with MKG in the lineup

So my maths seem to be looking okay. But speaking of manipulating numbers to suit needs. Why would you only include his minutes off the bench? Just because he started the other two games doesn't mean those minutes disappear. Injuries happen, and the 6th man (Lin) is going to be asked to step up and start. We're already dealing with a very small sample size, don't make it even smaller just so you can manipulate the numbers to suit your needs.

Look up at that makeshift table for the red bolded. Ignoring the fact that this stretch of games was far from Lin's best, in that he only hit double digit scoring twice despite Batum being out for a couple of games and him starting and averaging 23 minutes a night.... his minutes are directly correlated to his production. Those three bolded nights shooting a miserable 17% from the floor, he got reduced minutes. No ****. Anybody not named Kemba or Batum would.

He averaged just under 28 minutes a game WITH MKG IN THE LINEUP in the nights when he was shooting well. I don't see how anybody can complain about that, even if they do have an agenda to push. It also seems to fly in the face of that completely confirmed reduced role you seem to believe in, since what it really is, is "role completely tied to production regardless of who is on the team or floor"

Game 49,32mins, Lin played as starter to replace Kemba.
Game 53, 28mins, Lin played longer as MKG injured again in that game.

So Lin's playing time is under 20mins when both Kemba, Batum and MKG are healthy to start. (22+16+23+18)/4=19.75mins.

[rallydurham]

Well 40 is unrealistic he's a pg. Most starters are in that 32 range these days. He's not well suited as a full time pg due to his shooting and ballhandling limitations, but backup pg who can lead second units clearly have value.

I think it's unlikely he's back. I don't see lin going for a Brooklyn type irrelevant team. I think the best career move is to find a playoff atmosphere where he has a role. So that puts us in the mix for sure but we are just 1 of 8-10 teams that make sense. And since literally every team has cap room this season it means that every team is a legitimate option.

Not to mention almost every team is going to be interested in a guy who can play either guard spot and has played in a few different systems effectively.

Kemba is a high minutes guy and batum is a playmaker so lin has less value for us than he would on a lot of other teams who don't have those two in place.

I think Memphis, Dallas, New Orleans, Indiana all are likely suitors.

I actually think his best fit would be the Clippers.They need to replace Crawford and Rivers badly, but i think they'll blindly hold onto that terrible combo just because doc is an idiot.

There could be other openings too if a guy like Beal leaves washington or other similar moves.

I saw the cap is now projected another $3m to $95. There just isn't nearly enough talent available for all this cap space. General managers usually can't help themselves, there could be some really preposterous deals being signed out there

[13th Man]

I've given up on analyzing his words or thoughts, one day it's this one day it's that, who the heck knows I bet that he doesn't even know of his true intentions yet. It'll be real interesting to see what type of offers he gets, including from the Hornets.

I don't think we should analyze his words or thoughts. I think we should just wait and see what happens. And, you're right. We'll see what the Hornets do. They are now putting their efforts into the pitch to Nic. Then what? And will Nic ask to have x, x, x, players back to stay? I don't know if he can but if he does, then what? It's all a bunch of if's now.

Hey cut that out! I don't have a lot of time to post but I love taking a break and coming to the forum to read the latest Hornets news. Between now and the start of FA there is no Charlotte news, nothing. Okay maybe an alien abduction (possibly already happened with some fans). So if we don't analyze everyone's thoughts or words this place is going to be awful quiet.

You're right. I don't want to stop others from analyzing, this thread is quite entertaining

For me, I make a fool of myself every time I take his words too literally. He's going to be saying good things from all angles to appease different audiences. I used to try to peg his chances of staying/leaving at a certain percentage now I just don't bother its like throwing a dart at the board blindfolded.

[bws94]

Well 40 is unrealistic he's a pg. Most starters are in that 32 range these days. He's not well suited as a full time pg due to his shooting and ballhandling limitations, but backup pg who can lead second units clearly have value.

I think it's unlikely he's back. I don't see lin going for a Brooklyn type irrelevant team. I think the best career move is to find a playoff atmosphere where he has a role. So that puts us in the mix for sure but we are just 1 of 8-10 teams that make sense. And since literally every team has cap room this season it means that every team is a legitimate option.

Not to mention almost every team is going to be interested in a guy who can play either guard spot and has played in a few different systems effectively.

Kemba is a high minutes guy and batum is a playmaker so lin has less value for us than he would on a lot of other teams who don't have those two in place.

I think Memphis, Dallas, New Orleans, Indiana all are likely suitors.

I actually think his best fit would be the Clippers.They need to replace Crawford and Rivers badly, but i think they'll blindly hold onto that terrible combo just because doc is an idiot.

There could be other openings too if a guy like Beal leaves washington or other similar moves.

I saw the cap is now projected another $3m to $95. There just isn't nearly enough talent available for all this cap space. General managers usually can't help themselves, there could be some really preposterous deals being signed out there

You still sound like someone who looks at scoreboards and didn't watch the games. Cho said Lin was a two-position player that helped us win a lot of games. I agree with that. And he was instrumental in the 3 playoff wins. He has a "big-game" quality to him, look at what he did in the playoffs, against Boston, Spurs, Cavelier's stepping up for Kemba being out, Toronto and so on. No he won none of those games by himself, but he was big in those game. And it is precisely that we had Lin in addition to Kemba and Batum that put us over the hump in some wins this season and why Cliff favored playing him so many 4Q minutes and late-game situations.

As much as Batum is lauded, he's not the one in my mind that ended up being the clutch player that put it in another game in crucial times at games to make plays. It was Kemba...and Lin. You too much minimize Lin's impact, it's intangible, it goes beyond his ups and downs because his ups are very interesting ones.

[Travers]

Well 40 is unrealistic he's a pg. Most starters are in that 32 range these days. He's not well suited as a full time pg due to his shooting and ballhandling limitations, but backup pg who can lead second units clearly have value.

I think it's unlikely he's back. I don't see lin going for a Brooklyn type irrelevant team. I think the best career move is to find a playoff atmosphere where he has a role. So that puts us in the mix for sure but we are just 1 of 8-10 teams that make sense. And since literally every team has cap room this season it means that every team is a legitimate option.

Not to mention almost every team is going to be interested in a guy who can play either guard spot and has played in a few different systems effectively.

Kemba is a high minutes guy and batum is a playmaker so lin has less value for us than he would on a lot of other teams who don't have those two in place.

I think Memphis, Dallas, New Orleans, Indiana all are likely suitors.

I actually think his best fit would be the Clippers.They need to replace Crawford and Rivers badly, but i think they'll blindly hold onto that terrible combo just because doc is an idiot.

There could be other openings too if a guy like Beal leaves washington or other similar moves.

I saw the cap is now projected another $3m to $95. There just isn't nearly enough talent available for all this cap space. General managers usually can't help themselves, there could be some really preposterous deals being signed out there

You still sound like someone who looks at scoreboards and didn't watch the games. Cho said Lin was a two-position player that helped us win a lot of games. I agree with that. And he was instrumental in the 3 playoffs wins.

As much as Batum is lauded, he's not the one in my mind that ended up being the clutch player that put it in another game in crucial times at games to make plays. It was Kemba...and Lin. You too much minimize Lin's impact, it's intangible, it goes beyond his ups and downs because his ups are very interesting ones.

[Travers]

Well 40 is unrealistic he's a pg. Most starters are in that 32 range these days. He's not well suited as a full time pg due to his shooting and ballhandling limitations, but backup pg who can lead second units clearly have value.

I think it's unlikely he's back. I don't see lin going for a Brooklyn type irrelevant team. I think the best career move is to find a playoff atmosphere where he has a role. So that puts us in the mix for sure but we are just 1 of 8-10 teams that make sense. And since literally every team has cap room this season it means that every team is a legitimate option.

Not to mention almost every team is going to be interested in a guy who can play either guard spot and has played in a few different systems effectively.

Kemba is a high minutes guy and batum is a playmaker so lin has less value for us than he would on a lot of other teams who don't have those two in place.

I think Memphis, Dallas, New Orleans, Indiana all are likely suitors.

I actually think his best fit would be the Clippers.They need to replace Crawford and Rivers badly, but i think they'll blindly hold onto that terrible combo just because doc is an idiot.

There could be other openings too if a guy like Beal leaves washington or other similar moves.

I saw the cap is now projected another $3m to $95. There just isn't nearly enough talent available for all this cap space. General managers usually can't help themselves, there could be some really preposterous deals being signed out there

You still sound like someone who looks at scoreboards and didn't watch the games. Cho said Lin was a two-position player that helped us win a lot of games. I agree with that. And he was instrumental in the 3 playoffs wins.

As much as Batum is lauded, he's not the one in my mind that ended up being the clutch player that put it in another game in crucial times at games to make plays. It was Kemba...and Lin. You too much minimize Lin's impact, it's intangible, it goes beyond his ups and downs because his ups are very interesting ones.

Lin can always performs like that, just lack of chance.

[bws94]

@Travers, I don't think so. Lin is an up and down player regardless of chance. Can he have better numbers, yes, but those numbers just support a bias just like rally comes up with his numbers to support his bias. I think fats did the fairest and most balanced assessment of Lin, not trying to support a bias but simply to describe his up and down sides.

[Travers]

@Travers, I don't think so. Lin is an up and down player regardless of chance. Can he have better numbers, yes, but those numbers just support a bias just like rally comes up with his numbers to support his bias. I think fats did the fairest and most balanced assessment of Lin, not trying to support a bias but simply to describe his up and down sides.

Number don't lie. I trust number.

[TinmanZBoy]

^
I am more interested in the 24W-9L, that's quite impressive and it means more than anything else... it shows Lin is a very impactful player, the type that you ask more from him he will give you more...when he plays well, the team usually wins...
like JVG said about Lin: what Lin did was amazing and not easy, in this league a lot of guys can put up numbers when given opportunities, but not necessarily lead you to wins... Lin not only performed well individually, but also he gave you wins...

[yosemiteben]

My biggest problem with Lin this season flat out is that he was not a very good shooter / scorer in the role we had for him. His ability to play with Kemba improves massively if he can be a respectable perimeter threat and finish better at the basket.

If he puts up 45% FG and 38% 3PT last season, that exponentially increases his value to this team and IMO would have meant he received more minutes. If I were Lin, I would stick with the Hornets for one more year and get those shot %'s up. If he's able to do that, IMO that will lead to much, much more lucrative contract offers and increase the scope of teams that would be interested in him.

[bws94]

@Travers, I don't think so. Lin is an up and down player regardless of chance. Can he have better numbers, yes, but those numbers just support a bias just like rally comes up with his numbers to support his bias. I think fats did the fairest and most balanced assessment of Lin, not trying to support a bias but simply to describe his up and down sides.

Number don't lie. I trust number.

And rally trusts his numbers. I've seen them work for and against a player.