Don't Be Hurtin' Lin - The Jeremy Lin Thread 2

[MasterIchiro]

The net rating on court is a good indicator who are the better players on this team. The higher the better.

By this logic this net rating graphic is a good indicator that PJ is a better player than Kemba. The reason why this stat sucks is that it ignores matchups. When an opponent's best players are on the court, you have to have Kemba out there. Furthermore, his and Batum's high usage are warranted given you try to take advantage of situations where the opponent's worst players are on the court.

This is simple logic.

Statistics are nice.

Interpretation makes them useful.

[Roy Tarpley]

Interesting numbers but I think your analysis is a bit superficial.

[fatlever]

What the net on/off numbers show is that our 2nd unit is feasting against lesser 2nd units. The depth of the team was always a big positive for this team coming into the season. If our starters can just hold their own vs the other starters each night we have a really good chance of winning because our 2nd unit will win most nights and give us the edge.

Put Frank in the starting lineup and have him switch roles with Marvin and I think you would see his on/off numbers come down very quickly.

[yosemiteben]

The stats also don't take into account the situation where a player plays more minutes when is playing well but his minutes are cut when he is not.

[hood30]

Now Lin is playing like the first month he came off bench with the lakers, offensively all career lows ...but he is doing his job defensively, so it is still better...i don't think he himself is happy with what he has produced so far...
he has to be more aggressive whenever he touches the ball...
i think coach clifford is a really really good coach...but I always thought Lin would not be at his best under any of Riley/JVG school coaches, and this feeling is more and more real... don't get me wrong, lin is still in a good situation since he is a good player in any system, but to think coach clifford unleashing lin to be the dynamic scorer and play maker he could be is a pipe dream, coach clifford will never tolerate his ultra aggressive plays...

When Lin decided to join the Hornets and Steve Clifford, my concern was that the coach was too much of a "no turnover and defense" bulldog who would berate you for mistake(unless you're a star)...Lin needs a coach that is willing to somewhat tolerate some level of turnover in exchange for offense and playmaking...

Lin is basically a confidence player who thrive on trust in him..thus why Linsanity happened..Probably would had not happen if Clifford was coaching the Knicks at that moment because he would had taken Lin out after the first mistake and berate him to death.

My observation as a Lin fan, so far is the fact that Lin is under a short-leasch with very few minutes to get going...If he turn the ball over once, Kemba gets subbed in much earlier in the second quarter...It is also true if Lin doesn't score much in the second quarter

Linsanity would had probably never happen under anyone but Mike D'Antoni who is known to be a point guard coach with some level of tolerance toward the point guard..This could explain why Steve Nash broke out under him after a few years of under-achieving.

Even during Linsanity where the Knicks went on a long winning streaks, Lin was turning the ball over at a high rate, but his offense and play-making ability more than made up for it.

Under the right coach and system, I truly believe Lin is easily a 18ppg and 7assist guy but would probably average 3-4 turnover per game too...Clifford is probably the wrong coach for him....Maybe Hoiberg in Chicago could be a better fit, but I'm not sure there's enough minute for Lin there with Rose..But again, Rose is no longer a star.

[bws94]

Clifford said Lin will play a lot according to Lin's account of why he joined the Hornets. Lin's fans are going with that and there is a legit concern that Cliff is not a man of his word if it is a feeling that Lin isn't allowed to play through mistakes. There is no doubt that Lin can play poorly for 3Q and then turn it up and play big in the 4Q when he is told to turn the switch. Last game Batum had 9 TO and what, 3 airballs yet still had a big clutch 3 because he knew he was counted on as a main guy. Lin doesn't have to be the main guy that Batum is, I'm not equating their roles, but he can be that main guy off the bench that has a less than stellar game and make that big play in the crunch. He's done that numerous times. He didn't play that great a game against the Kings and then bang, OT comes and Lin goes into Linsanity mode. If Cliff takes him out, that's not the understanding that Lin was going on when he chose Charlotte.

Now, that being said, Cliff has the Hornets in a lot of close games. The team trumps the individual player. If Cliff feels another player can deliver what Lin is showing that he doesn't have in a particular game, then Cliff's responsibility is to the team to put the best guy in. Cliff didn't do that in the Cavs game, Lin was the guy that should have closed. Arguably, Lin may not have been the best guy to play the last 2 minutes of last nights game because he wasn't doing that much with the starters. It's a coach's decision. I'd say to Lin's fans, and I'm one of them, that Batum and Kemba are in that lineup no matter what. Al and others, including in, may be but based on the circumstances of the game.

Overall, Cliff has to go in between maximizing a player and knowing when to let him play through mistakes, and Lin is proven that he can do this and putting the best guys on the team at any given time. I don't expect any coach to always get it right.

[yosemiteben]

I guarantee you that Cliff did not say he was willing to sacrifice wins to get Lin minutes. This necessarily leads to the conclusion that Cliff is going to play the lineup that he thinks gives us the best chance to win, and Lin shouldn't expect differently. The minutes are there for Lin, but they aren't a guarantee and he has to do well at what is asked of him if he wants to guarantee that he'll be on the floor for big minutes.

[Mystical Apples]

Net On/Off ratings are valuable for different reasons but get misused like most stats. Over the course of a year it's great at providing relative player value for that particular team's roster for the manner in which that player was used. Even extrapolated depending.

However, On/Off stats in smaller sample sizes (like now) are better at indicating how various lineup combinations work (or suck), or how player profiles mesh to evaluate roster needs or rotation changes. Or as Fats mentions, it depends on factors such 1st/second units. He cites Frank which is a good example. Frank can do things defensively few 7 footers can (perimeter PnR defense) and space the floor for attacking guards ( looking at you, Jeremy's) but Clifford forcing him to guard starting PF/C in the post would ignite a large dumpster fire.

Similarly, Clifford does a good job accentuating Lin's strengths while minimizing his weaknesses. Kemba plays a ton of minutes against first units, with Al, and as a primary ball handler. Lin gets second unit run, with Frank, and almost never as the primary ball handler.

If Clifford forced Lin into a less ideal situation the likely outcome would be a turnover carnival. In that way on/off net ratings indicate if a coach is doing his job. With Lin, the answer is a resounding yes.

[bws94]

I guarantee you that Cliff did not say he was willing to sacrifice wins to get Lin minutes. This necessarily leads to the conclusion that Cliff is going to play the lineup that he thinks gives us the best chance to win, and Lin shouldn't expect differently. The minutes are there for Lin, but they aren't a guarantee and he has to do well at what is asked of him if he wants to guarantee that he'll be on the floor for big minutes.

No responsible coach would. Scott does that for Kobe but that's a special case. Now it's the great player's swan song.

But, Lin should be played in crucial spots because he can come up big, even when he has bad games. That's something a responsible coach does. Knowing that a player can produce even when he looks lousy like Batum did in the past game hitting that big clutch 3.

[hood30]

I guarantee you that Cliff did not say he was willing to sacrifice wins to get Lin minutes. This necessarily leads to the conclusion that Cliff is going to play the lineup that he thinks gives us the best chance to win, and Lin shouldn't expect differently. The minutes are there for Lin, but they aren't a guarantee and he has to do well at what is asked of him if he wants to guarantee that he'll be on the floor for big minutes.

You are most likely right that Clifford did not give Lin an Iron clad promise of big minutes....But I'm pretty sure Lin never thought his minutes would be so inconsistent to the point that even when he plays well, the best he can do is about 20-22 minutes.

Some may point out that he had a few games where he played 28, 29, 30 minutes, but those happened when there were injuries...Some of the early games when Lin received 25+, Lamb had some type of injuries.


The most recent games where Lin played 25+, Hairston was injured...So this seems to suggest that when everyone is healthy, Lin's minute range would be from 17-22 per game.....I can say right now that Lin would probably not be in Charlotte if he knew before hand that this was Clifford plan for him.

Lin, at the very least, is a high-end back up point guard who could start for half-dozen team in the NBA...Charlotte is a small market team who probably has to promise something antigible to get players to come play for them...Many Lin fan believe Lin was promised decent minute because there's really not much attraction in playing for the Hornets...Lin, himself stated that the Hornets weren't even in his radar and he was promised enough minute to play his game and also to play alongside Kemba to get additional minute.

The funny thing is, with Kemba playing close to 40minute a night recently, Lin can not even expect the remaining 15 minute at the back-up point guard spot when Kemba is supposed to be resting..Kemba barely rest on the bench for a straight 5 minutes....I'm sure Lin did not sign for this or else, he'd be elsewhere....

[bws94]

Net On/Off ratings are valuable for different reasons but get misused like most stats. Over the course of a year it's great at providing relative player value for that particular team's roster for the manner in which that player was used. Even extrapolated depending.

However, On/Off stats in smaller sample sizes (like now) are better at indicating how various lineup combinations work (or suck), or how player profiles mesh to evaluate roster needs or rotation changes. Or as Fats mentions, it depends on factors such 1st/second units. He cites Frank which is a good example. Frank can do things defensively few 7 footers can (perimeter PnR defense) and space the floor for attacking guards ( looking at you, Jeremy's) but Clifford forcing him to guard starting PF/C in the post would ignite a large dumpster fire.

Similarly, Clifford does a good job accentuating Lin's strengths while minimizing his weaknesses. Kemba plays a ton of minutes against first units, with Al, and as a primary ball handler. Lin gets second unit run, with Frank, and almost never as the primary ball handler.

If Clifford forced Lin into a less ideal situation the likely outcome would be a turnover carnival. In that way on/off net ratings indicate if a coach is doing his job. With Lin, the answer is a resounding yes.

Yes and no. Lin can handle first unit players as he's done great against them when placed against them. Most of the time. Some matchups bother him.

I agree with placing importance on who plays best with whom. But I think you underestimate how well Lin can play against 1st unit players. Especially defensively. But I think he has a lot of problems handling the ball against tough first-unit team defenses like Atlanta or Miami or maybe GSW.

[amcoolio]

I guarantee you that Cliff did not say he was willing to sacrifice wins to get Lin minutes. This necessarily leads to the conclusion that Cliff is going to play the lineup that he thinks gives us the best chance to win, and Lin shouldn't expect differently. The minutes are there for Lin, but they aren't a guarantee and he has to do well at what is asked of him if he wants to guarantee that he'll be on the floor for big minutes.

You are most likely right that Clifford did not give Lin an Iron clad promise of big minutes....But I'm pretty sure Lin never thought his minutes would be so inconsistent to the point that even when he plays well, the best he can do is about 20-22 minutes.

Some may point out that he had a few games where he played 28, 29, 30 minutes, but those happened when there were injuries...Some of the early games when Lin received 25+, Lamb had some type of injuries.


The most recent games where Lin played 25+, Hairston was injured...So this seems to suggest that when everyone is healthy, Lin's minute range would be from 17-22 per game.....I can say right now that Lin would probably not be in Charlotte if he knew before hand that this was Clifford plan for him.

Lin, at the very least, is a high-end back up point guard who could start for half-dozen team in the NBA...Charlotte is a small market team who probably has to promise something antigible to get players to come play for them...Many Lin fan believe Lin was promised decent minute because there's really not much attraction in playing for the Hornets...Lin, himself stated that the Hornets weren't even in his radar and he was promised enough minute to play his game and also to play alongside Kemba to get additional minute.

The funny thing is, with Kemba playing close to 40minute a night recently, Lin can not even expect the remaining 15 minute at the back-up point guard spot when Kemba is supposed to be resting..Kemba barely rest on the bench for a straight 5 minutes....I'm sure Lin did not sign for this or else, he'd be elsewhere....

Kemba is hot lately, thats why he is playing 40 minutes. And the Hornets are winning. Who cares about Lin's state of mind.

I'm sure there will be nights where Lin is hot and he gets a ton of minutes. Clifford has PROVEN that if a player is hot he stays in the game. Lin has not been HOT. He's been mediocre. Hesitating to shoot, missing open 3's, and putting his head down and driving into the lane without a clue of what to do.

If you want Lin to get more minutes, then he needs to play better. Plain and simple. Enough of this argument.

[yosemiteben]

But, Lin should be played in crucial spots because he can come up big, even when he has bad games.

So can Lamb. From Cliff's perspective, if Lamb has been outproducing Lin then he deserves to be in the closing group.

That's something a responsible coach does. Knowing that a player can produce even when he looks lousy like Batum did in the past game hitting that big clutch 3.

Batum has a massive positive impact on this team even when he plays poorly. I don't think you can compare him to Lin, but others may disagree.

I can say right now that Lin would probably not be in Charlotte if he knew before hand that this was Clifford plan for him.

Let's call a spade a spade - he signed here knowing he was playing behind a guaranteed starter and face of the franchise in Kemba and for a team that was desperate for the playoffs that has added a lot of depth. He had to know that if he was outplayed as a wing (which is arguably the case given Lamb's performance lately) that he would lose some PT.

Lin, at the very least, is a high-end back up point guard who could start for half-dozen team in the NBA...Charlotte is a small market team who probably has to promise something antigible to get players to come play for them...Many Lin fan believe Lin was promised decent minute because there's really not much attraction in playing for the Hornets...Lin, himself stated that the Hornets weren't even in his radar and he was promised enough minute to play his game and also to play alongside Kemba to get additional minute.

Cliff doesn't guarantee PT, that's just not his MO, especially this season. All we have heard from former and current players is that he is highly professional and legitimately interested in helping his players improve their game, and that his players respect him for that. Lin fans (sorry to lump together but this is just a hypothetical) can spread this BS about CHA needing to grovel to Lin and make promises to him to get him to come here, but I expect reality to be that Lin heard about Cliff's philosophy and vision for the team and bought in. If he wanted guaranteed starter minutes, this was not the situation for him. Cliff is going to allocate PT however he thinks will best enable us to win. That is how the NBA works.

[bws94]

Kemba is better than I thought. At least how he's playing now. He facilitates enough to involve others but he can really get big scores at the right time. He's steady and strong with the ball handling and has good endurance. He hustles on D too, tries to stay with his man and moves well laterally. He's playing winning basketball now. The argument for 40 minutes is he could wear out and in some games, not all, Lin is doing just fine without him and the momentum changes when Lin switches gears when Kemba comes back on. If the 2nd unit is faltering, by all means bring in Kemba. But if not, let them roll and not build up the mileage on Kemba.

[Mystical Apples]

Net On/Off ratings are valuable for different reasons but get misused like most stats. Over the course of a year it's great at providing relative player value for that particular team's roster for the manner in which that player was used. Even extrapolated depending.

However, On/Off stats in smaller sample sizes (like now) are better at indicating how various lineup combinations work (or suck), or how player profiles mesh to evaluate roster needs or rotation changes. Or as Fats mentions, it depends on factors such 1st/second units. He cites Frank which is a good example. Frank can do things defensively few 7 footers can (perimeter PnR defense) and space the floor for attacking guards ( looking at you, Jeremy's) but Clifford forcing him to guard starting PF/C in the post would ignite a large dumpster fire.

Similarly, Clifford does a good job accentuating Lin's strengths while minimizing his weaknesses. Kemba plays a ton of minutes against first units, with Al, and as a primary ball handler. Lin gets second unit run, with Frank, and almost never as the primary ball handler.

If Clifford forced Lin into a less ideal situation the likely outcome would be a turnover carnival. In that way on/off net ratings indicate if a coach is doing his job. With Lin, the answer is a resounding yes.

Yes and no. Lin can handle first unit players as he's done great against them when placed against them. Most of the time. Some matchups bother him.

I agree with placing importance on who plays best with whom. But I think you underestimate how well Lin can play against 1st unit players. Especially defensively. But I think he has a lot of problems handling the ball against tough first-unit team defenses like Atlanta or Miami or maybe GSW.

I'm not over/underestimating Lin, it's just a reality. He's been used in lineups that help him succeed, like the other Charlotte players. I find it ironic that some fans - not you - then try to use that as Exhibit A why the coach should play him more. The logic becomes circular real fast.

[sutton]

guys, check out clutch stats,

http://stats.nba.com/league/player/#!/clutch/advanced/?Season=2015-16&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&TeamID=1610612766

[hood30]

I guarantee you that Cliff did not say he was willing to sacrifice wins to get Lin minutes. This necessarily leads to the conclusion that Cliff is going to play the lineup that he thinks gives us the best chance to win, and Lin shouldn't expect differently. The minutes are there for Lin, but they aren't a guarantee and he has to do well at what is asked of him if he wants to guarantee that he'll be on the floor for big minutes.

You are most likely right that Clifford did not give Lin an Iron clad promise of big minutes....But I'm pretty sure Lin never thought his minutes would be so inconsistent to the point that even when he plays well, the best he can do is about 20-22 minutes.

Some may point out that he had a few games where he played 28, 29, 30 minutes, but those happened when there were injuries...Some of the early games when Lin received 25+, Lamb had some type of injuries.


The most recent games where Lin played 25+, Hairston was injured...So this seems to suggest that when everyone is healthy, Lin's minute range would be from 17-22 per game.....I can say right now that Lin would probably not be in Charlotte if he knew before hand that this was Clifford plan for him.

Lin, at the very least, is a high-end back up point guard who could start for half-dozen team in the NBA...Charlotte is a small market team who probably has to promise something antigible to get players to come play for them...Many Lin fan believe Lin was promised decent minute because there's really not much attraction in playing for the Hornets...Lin, himself stated that the Hornets weren't even in his radar and he was promised enough minute to play his game and also to play alongside Kemba to get additional minute.

The funny thing is, with Kemba playing close to 40minute a night recently, Lin can not even expect the remaining 15 minute at the back-up point guard spot when Kemba is supposed to be resting..Kemba barely rest on the bench for a straight 5 minutes....I'm sure Lin did not sign for this or else, he'd be elsewhere....

Kemba is hot lately, thats why he is playing 40 minutes. And the Hornets are winning. Who cares about Lin's state of mind.

I'm sure there will be nights where Lin is hot and he gets a ton of minutes. Clifford has PROVEN that if a player is hot he stays in the game. Lin has not been HOT. He's been mediocre. Hesitating to shoot, missing open 3's, and putting his head down and driving into the lane without a clue of what to do.

If you want Lin to get more minutes, then he needs to play better. Plain and simple. Enough of this argument.

The debate is not about whether Lin should be starting over Kemba or even whether Lin current play warrant 25+minutes per game coming off the bench..He's clearly not going to get that no matter what since he had good games earlier this year where he only played 17minutes and 20 minutes and scored 15 and 17 points...

Even based on pre-season, you could had made a strong argument that Lin had won a starting position alongside Kemba, But Clifford had a pre-determined plan and it was to keep Lin's minute at around 18-21 per game no matter what...

Lin scored 17 in the first game of the season..while he played 27minutes during that game, the reason may had been because Lamb was injured..If Lamb was healthy, Lin's minutes would probably be 18-22.

Lin scored 15point against Chicago(the first encounter) but only played 19minutes...Most of the games where he reached 25+ minutes was simply because of injuries

The argument I'm making is whether Lin would had even be wearing a Hornet uniform if he knew before hand he'd be simply "insurance policy" in case of injuries..or in case Kemba goes down.

Hornets had to promise Lin something that would entice him to come because Charlotte really doesn't have much to offer...

Mo William probably left because he knew he wasn't going to get sufficient minutes as a back-up to Kemba..and he was a player that needed to be replaced properly..but how can Charlotte get a PG that is close to Mo William level to come here and be happy backing up Kemba?...Bingo, they had to promise something more than just back-up minute or else no one comes to Charlotte...Lin even stated it in an interview..that he was going to have a big role coming off the bench.....I haven't seen it yet..Maybe it will eventually materialized..I'm still hoping.

So I believe Lin was promised something that is not being delivered as of yet...He's at the very least, a high end back-up..closest thing to Mo Williams..There were no back-up PG on the market as good as Lin and there were plenty of team willing to offer Lin that spot...The only reason Lin would pick Charlotte is if they had promised more minutes.

[Braggins]

Some of you guys can't seem to separate what you feel Lin's role should be with what Lin was actually told his role was going to be. Clifford did not promise that Lin would get 28 minutes per game or play starter minutes. You guys extrapolated that from Clifford saying Lin would have an important role here and be allowed to play his game because it is what you feel he deserves. Its been all in your head the entire time and you need to let it go.

[yosemiteben]

Hornets had to promise Lin something that would entice him to come because Charlotte really doesn't have much to offer...

You are ignoring what Lin said about liking Cliff.

Mo William probably left because he knew he wasn't going to get sufficient minutes as a back-up to Kemba..

As opposed to Kyrie, who has averaged more MPG on his career and last year than Kemba? MoWill left to go chase rings with his old bud LeBron. Had nothing to do with his minutes.

[Braggins]

Lin even stated it in an interview..that he was going to have a big role coming off the bench.....I haven't seen it yet..Maybe it will eventually materialized..I'm still hoping.

He does have a big role coming off the bench. How many backups who play the same position as their teams best player (arguably) get more than 23 minutes per game?