Don't Be Hurtin' Lin - The Jeremy Lin Thread 2

[hood30]

Some of you guys can't seem to separate what you feel Lin's role should be with what Lin was actually told his role was going to be. Clifford did not promise that Lin would get 28 minutes per game or play starter minutes. You guys extrapolated that from Clifford saying Lin would have an important role here and be allowed to play his game because it is what you feel he deserves. Its been all in your head the entire time and you need to let it go.

No one is saying "Cliff promised Lin 28 minutes" per game....The big debate that is raging in the Lin forum is whether Lin would had signed for the Hornets unless he was promised that type of minutes...

There's really no reason why Lin would had picked Charlotte instead of Memphis, Philly, Houston, Chicago and GSW....Those are the 5 teams that were reported pursuing Lin to be their back-up..I'm sure there were others...Lin stated he chose the Hornets because they were offering a bigger role..

We will never know what was offered but most of us feel he could had NOT possibly be the 18-22 minute range since he could had gotten that in Chicago, specially with a declining and injury prone Rose...He even did better playing for Byron Scott, who wanted to lose games, so Lin high efficient plays was a problem for Lakers tanking.

After the good pre-season where I felt Lin even outplayed Kemba, I was certain Lin had locked up at least 28 minutes per game and Clifford was going to give Lin the first shot at proving he doesn't deserve 25+ minutes...But Clifford never gave him such latitude in the first place..even after the good pre-season.

Lin is shooting below his career % because his minutes are very inconsistent and it's very hard to get going and gain some confidence when you know you will be pulled out of the game if you don't make your first 2 shot or you commit a turnover.

This situation is even worst than in L.A or Houston because Lin at least got a guaranteed 25 minute to gain confidence and rhythm...He clearly does not have that in Charlotte, so we all wonder whether he would had signed if he were told he was not going to get even 25 at the very least..

After the great pre-season, Clifford should had locked Lin under at least 25minutes + and wait before he decreased his minutes...That is where my beef with Clifford and the Charlotte Hornet rest...Lin was never given that chance...Instead, his minutes were yo-yoed with, even on good night...Now, he's lost a bit of confidence since he knows his minutes and Cliff level of tolerance is very low.

[Braggins]

Some of you guys can't seem to separate what you feel Lin's role should be with what Lin was actually told his role was going to be. Clifford did not promise that Lin would get 28 minutes per game or play starter minutes. You guys extrapolated that from Clifford saying Lin would have an important role here and be allowed to play his game because it is what you feel he deserves. Its been all in your head the entire time and you need to let it go.

No one is saying "Cliff promised Lin 28 minutes" per game....The big debate that is raging in the Lin forum is whether Lin would had signed for the Hornets unless he was promised that type of minutes...

There's really no reason why Lin would had picked Charlotte instead of Memphis, Philly, Houston, Chicago and GSW....Those are the 5 teams that were reported pursuing Lin to be their back-up..I'm sure there were others...Lin stated he chose the Hornets because they were offering a bigger role..We will never know what was offered but most of us feel he could had not possibly be the 18-22 minute range we've seen Lin played, even on good nights.

So, no one is saying that Clifford promised him that many minutes, but you are saying that you don't think Lin would have signed here unless he was promised that many minutes... That is completely contradictory and equates to you obviously thinking he was promised that type of minutes...

I think the disconnect here is that Lin is obviously more realistic about his place in the league than a lot of his fans. He was not promised what you think he was promised and yet he still obviously did sign here.

[RealHusky]

What the net on/off numbers show is that our 2nd unit is feasting against lesser 2nd units. The depth of the team was always a big positive for this team coming into the season. If our starters can just hold their own vs the other starters each night we have a really good chance of winning because our 2nd unit will win most nights and give us the edge.

Put Frank in the starting lineup and have him switch roles with Marvin and I think you would see his on/off numbers come down very quickly.

Not always true. Here is a chart on yesterday's game. Lin played against Bucks starters plenty. He is being severely underutilized especially as a SG where he just stands in the corner waiting for a pass that never shows. Kemba is being over used right now and his minutes at PG needs to be cut by 5 to 10 mins each game.

Regardless first or second units on the other team, they are still NBA players. I am pretty sure Lin's results won't matter much even if he played against all other teams' first unit. He is just a better overall PG than Kemba and offense flows better when he is on the floor where Kemba is a shoot first PG (more of a SG) who passes when he has to. Kemba always played like this even in college. He is certainly effective as someone who can create his own shots but Lin is simply a better distributor than Kemba.

[Braggins]

What the net on/off numbers show is that our 2nd unit is feasting against lesser 2nd units. The depth of the team was always a big positive for this team coming into the season. If our starters can just hold their own vs the other starters each night we have a really good chance of winning because our 2nd unit will win most nights and give us the edge.

Put Frank in the starting lineup and have him switch roles with Marvin and I think you would see his on/off numbers come down very quickly.

Kemba is being over used right now and his minutes at PG needs to be cut by 5 to 10 mins each game.

No, we need to win games and we needed Kemba to play the minutes he did to give us the best chance to win in these recent games because hes been playing so well. Ideally, his minutes will be a bit lower going forward than they have recently for durability reasons, but he will play as much as the team needs him to. You may want Jeremy to get more of the PG minutes, but that is not what the team has needed recently.

[hood30]

Some of you guys can't seem to separate what you feel Lin's role should be with what Lin was actually told his role was going to be. Clifford did not promise that Lin would get 28 minutes per game or play starter minutes. You guys extrapolated that from Clifford saying Lin would have an important role here and be allowed to play his game because it is what you feel he deserves. Its been all in your head the entire time and you need to let it go.

No one is saying "Cliff promised Lin 28 minutes" per game....The big debate that is raging in the Lin forum is whether Lin would had signed for the Hornets unless he was promised that type of minutes...

There's really no reason why Lin would had picked Charlotte instead of Memphis, Philly, Houston, Chicago and GSW....Those are the 5 teams that were reported pursuing Lin to be their back-up..I'm sure there were others...Lin stated he chose the Hornets because they were offering a bigger role..We will never know what was offered but most of us feel he could had not possibly be the 18-22 minute range we've seen Lin played, even on good nights.

So, no one is saying that Clifford promised him that many minutes, but you are saying that you don't think Lin would have signed here unless he was promised that many minutes... That is completely contradictory and equates to you obviously thinking he was promised that type of minutes...

I think the disconnect here is that Lin is obviously more realistic about his place in the league than a lot of his fans. He was not promised what you think he was promised and yet he still obviously did sign here.

That is my assumption based on Lin's words and the fact he stated he wanted a bigger role than simply being a back-up point guard...He declined GSW offer because he felt he wasn't going to get to play much behind Curry.

Lin wasn't happy with his situation with the Lakers and Houston where he had a much bigger role..so why in the world would he be satisfied with 18-22 minute range on a team that was not considered to be play-off bound?

My assumption(and many Lin fan) is also based on the fact that they were other teams who pursued Lin....My assumption is Charlotte had to promise something worth coming here..Of course, we aren't privy to what was said...Lin is a professional guy, so even if he feel he was fooled, I don't expect him to make a big deal out of it since the team is winning...He'll simply opt out and join another team next year.


'

[yosemiteben]

We will never know what was offered..

Yes we will, we can know with near certainty that he was not offered a specific amount because that's not how Cliff rolls.

After the good pre-season where I felt Lin even outplayed Kemba, I was certain Lin had locked up at least 28 minutes per game...

Cliff does not think in these guaranteed fixed increments. I don't think any coach does. That was on you for thinking that preseason performance would result in guaranteed PT during the regular season. Ask Hansbrough how that's going.

[Braggins]

No one is saying "Cliff promised Lin 28 minutes" per game....The big debate that is raging in the Lin forum is whether Lin would had signed for the Hornets unless he was promised that type of minutes...

There's really no reason why Lin would had picked Charlotte instead of Memphis, Philly, Houston, Chicago and GSW....Those are the 5 teams that were reported pursuing Lin to be their back-up..I'm sure there were others...Lin stated he chose the Hornets because they were offering a bigger role..We will never know what was offered but most of us feel he could had not possibly be the 18-22 minute range we've seen Lin played, even on good nights.

So, no one is saying that Clifford promised him that many minutes, but you are saying that you don't think Lin would have signed here unless he was promised that many minutes... That is completely contradictory and equates to you obviously thinking he was promised that type of minutes...

I think the disconnect here is that Lin is obviously more realistic about his place in the league than a lot of his fans. He was not promised what you think he was promised and yet he still obviously did sign here.

That is my assumption based on Lin's words and the fact he stated he wanted a bigger role than simply being a back-up point guard...He declined GSW offer because he felt he wasn't going to get to play much behind Curry.

Lin wasn't happy with his situation with the Lakers and Houston where he had a much bigger role..so why in the world would he be satisfied with 18-22 minute range on a team that was not considered to be play-off bound?

My assumption(and many Lin fan) is also based on the fact that they were other teams who pursued Lin....My assumption is Charlotte had to promise something worth coming here..Of course, we aren't privy to what was said...Lin is a professional guy, so even if he feel he was fooled, I don't expect him to make a big deal out of it since the team is winning...He'll simply opt out and join another team next year.


'

I think the disconnect here is that Lin is obviously more realistic about his place in the league than a lot of his fans. He was not promised what you think he was promised and yet he still obviously did sign here.

[bws94]

yosemiteben I don't think Lamb has the clutchness of Lin. What I mean is Lin will take a charge, break up a lob, make a big steal, make a drive and great feed to someone, he has ability to draw defenders and dish like he did late in that game where he had the behind the back dish to big Al. I don't think Lin has that 5 second violation that Lamb made. That's no knock on Lamb, but I've seen Lin just explode in 4th quarters for many seasons and have really huge impact 4th quarters. I think there are times I'd prefer Lamb in, but mostly Lin has the experience and that certain something to come up big in clutch situations.

I'd like to see Lamb developed because he's a heck of a player. But at this point, I think he plays best with Lin. More alley oops stuff and open court stuff is in store if they play in tandem. I like them together but realize they can't always play together.

I wasn't saying Lin equals Batum. I gave an example of someone who can have a bad game but still make a clutch play. Lin can do that as well, but I'm not expecting Lin to be the priority that Batum is nor have I thought that overall Lin has performed anywhere near where Batum has or had the same positive impacts on games.

[Liver_Pooty]

I can get on board with cutting Walkers minutes by 5 as 40 a game isn't sustainable.

10 is just ridiculous, though.

[bws94]

Net On/Off ratings are valuable for different reasons but get misused like most stats. Over the course of a year it's great at providing relative player value for that particular team's roster for the manner in which that player was used. Even extrapolated depending.

However, On/Off stats in smaller sample sizes (like now) are better at indicating how various lineup combinations work (or suck), or how player profiles mesh to evaluate roster needs or rotation changes. Or as Fats mentions, it depends on factors such 1st/second units. He cites Frank which is a good example. Frank can do things defensively few 7 footers can (perimeter PnR defense) and space the floor for attacking guards ( looking at you, Jeremy's) but Clifford forcing him to guard starting PF/C in the post would ignite a large dumpster fire.

Similarly, Clifford does a good job accentuating Lin's strengths while minimizing his weaknesses. Kemba plays a ton of minutes against first units, with Al, and as a primary ball handler. Lin gets second unit run, with Frank, and almost never as the primary ball handler.

If Clifford forced Lin into a less ideal situation the likely outcome would be a turnover carnival. In that way on/off net ratings indicate if a coach is doing his job. With Lin, the answer is a resounding yes.

Yes and no. Lin can handle first unit players as he's done great against them when placed against them. Most of the time. Some matchups bother him.

I agree with placing importance on who plays best with whom. But I think you underestimate how well Lin can play against 1st unit players. Especially defensively. But I think he has a lot of problems handling the ball against tough first-unit team defenses like Atlanta or Miami or maybe GSW.

I'm not over/underestimating Lin, it's just a reality. He's been used in lineups that help him succeed, like the other Charlotte players. I find it ironic that some fans - not you - then try to use that as Exhibit A why the coach should play him more. The logic becomes circular real fast.

Gotcha.

[Mystical Apples]

I've participated in about 5 discussions on the "Jeremy Lin thread" over the past 4 months. It's exhausting.

[hood30]

We will never know what was offered..

Yes we will, we can know with near certainty that he was not offered a specific amount because that's not how Cliff rolls.

After the good pre-season where I felt Lin even outplayed Kemba, I was certain Lin had locked up at least 28 minutes per game...

Cliff does not think in these guaranteed fixed increments. I don't think any coach does. That was on you for thinking that preseason performance would result in guaranteed PT during the regular season. Ask Hansbrough how that's going.[/quote]

---------------------

Maybe Lin made a mistake..As I've stated, when I heard he was going to Charlotte, I thought it was a bad move because Clifford is well known around the league as a defense-first guy with no tolerance for PG who turns the ball over...Lin is a confidence player who needs a coach that would give him some space..Mike D'Anthony fitted him like a glove

I find it hard to believe Lin would had picked Charlotte with Clifford making it clear to Lin that no matter how well he play in Pre-season, he will get 18-22mpg...That is what is being debated in the Lin forums...How can he willingly put himself in a position where he would get less minute to prove himself...

[bws94]

Some of you guys can't seem to separate what you feel Lin's role should be with what Lin was actually told his role was going to be. Clifford did not promise that Lin would get 28 minutes per game or play starter minutes. You guys extrapolated that from Clifford saying Lin would have an important role here and be allowed to play his game because it is what you feel he deserves. Its been all in your head the entire time and you need to let it go.

No one is saying "Cliff promised Lin 28 minutes" per game....The big debate that is raging in the Lin forum is whether Lin would had signed for the Hornets unless he was promised that type of minutes...

There's really no reason why Lin would had picked Charlotte instead of Memphis, Philly, Houston, Chicago and GSW....Those are the 5 teams that were reported pursuing Lin to be their back-up..I'm sure there were others...Lin stated he chose the Hornets because they were offering a bigger role..We will never know what was offered but most of us feel he could had not possibly be the 18-22 minute range we've seen Lin played, even on good nights.

So, no one is saying that Clifford promised him that many minutes, but you are saying that you don't think Lin would have signed here unless he was promised that many minutes... That is completely contradictory and equates to you obviously thinking he was promised that type of minutes...

I think the disconnect here is that Lin is obviously more realistic about his place in the league than a lot of his fans. He was not promised what you think he was promised and yet he still obviously did sign here.

Nobody is promised anything except perhaps star players. Lin had conversations with Clifford on conceptually how he would be used and went with that. But sometimes conditions change during the course of a season and other things emerge. I think everything about Batum fell into place. Some things are working for Lin but Lin is more variable in how he plays the game than other players. Some days he seems more tentative and other games almost reckless, or at least reckless in spurts, and some games he finds that nice in-between. That's all good, if Clifford was familiar with Lin he realizes that is the case.

The rate at how Lin assimilates and acclimates to the team may take awhile but it may be in progress. The aim is the Hornets to win and some guys have to be underutilized a bit. The biggest impact guys should be utilized as much to their strengths with the right players as possible. Cliff's idea of Kemba and Lin together is proving challenging. And Kemba is balling right now. But, it may work out. If Kemba and Lin become a 2 small guard PnR attacking guard can draw defenses and challenge opponents force, then Lin may play quite a lot. So that may be a work in progress. Kemba and Batum are cornerstone players, they will see the most minutes and very rarely not close a game. All other guys are variable.

Also, Kaminsky, Lamb and Cody Zeller are projects too and who they play with and how effective they are may have them on the court a lot too. Sometimes with Lin, sometimes not. I'm rooting for everyone. Let who is best for the team emerge by Cliff given them all a fair shake.

[Roy Tarpley]

A few points I'd add to this lively debate:

1. Sacrificing wins for more minutes for Lin is a strawman argument. More time for Lin and the Hornets winning are NOT mutually exclusive. In fact, I think most Lin fans would argue that more minutes for Lin would result in better overall team play.

2. I'm not sure why some people think that Lin needs to be coddled with gloves, finding him the most ideal situation, or otherwise he'll turn into a turnover machine. Lin was the starting PG for the playoff Knicks in 2012, the starting PG for the playoff Rockets in 2013, and the primary 6th man for the playoff Rockets in 2014. He has more playoff experience as a starter than most players on the Hornets, except for Batum, and maybe Williams and Jefferson.

3. The argument that Lin will get more minutes if he plays better is not supported by the evidence. Can we put this simplistic myth to bed?

- Lin scored 15 pts, with 5 rebs and 4 asts against the Bulls shooting 50% FG and 100% 3PT in 19 minutes against the Bulls on Nov. 3 and then on Nov. 5 against the Mavs, he got 17 minutes.

- On Nov. 10 and 11 against MIN and NYK, Lin played 26 and 21 minutes respectively, scoring 19 and 17 points on good percentages, respectively. Then on Nov. 13 against the Bulls, he got 17 minutes.

If you go through his game log, there's pretty much no rhyme or reason to his minutes allocation. Conversely, you can look at Kemba's game log and you'll see him get lots of minutes after bad games (e.g., shooting 2-11 on Nov. 11 against the Knicks and then he got 37 minutes against the Bulls two days later, and shot 5-18). It seems like Clifford prefers to allot minutes based on matchups but I don't understand what the calculus is. Cliff's always writing notes on this card but who knows what he's doodling.

If these Lin discussions seem exhausting, maybe it's because certain arguments aren't compelling enough to put the issue to rest.

[bws94]

I can get on board with cutting Walkers minutes by 5 as 40 a game isn't sustainable.

10 is just ridiculous, though.

close games, 35 is probably needed. That's about right.

[TinmanZBoy]

i have a feeling that hood30 and fantasybbcoach are the same person... by the way, where is that JuanCesta
my dear lin fans, at the end of the day, any debate is fruitless, this largely falls on lin himself, he has to "man up" (Byron's words)... , play like a star to satisfy us "soccer moms" (MA's words)...
Cheers!

[Mystical Apples]

But I can get into it. Based upon this, The Tank is the most clutch athlete in the history of all sports anywhere ever. Coach is leaving 80 points on the table - Every. Single. Game.

Clifford, let The Tank roll, baby!

http://stats.nba.com/league/player/#!/clutch/advanced/?sort=NET_RATING&dir=1&CF=MIN*GE*5&Season=2015-16&SeasonType=Regular%20Season

[Liver_Pooty]

But I can get into it. Based upon this, The Tank is the most clutch athlete in the history of all sports anywhere ever. Coach is leaving 80 points on the table - Every. Single. Game.

Clifford, let The Tank roll, baby!

http://stats.nba.com/league/player/#!/clutch/advanced/?sort=NET_RATING&dir=1&CF=MIN*GE*5&Season=2015-16&SeasonType=Regular%20Season

Lol

[Braggins]

3. The argument that Lin will get more minutes if he plays better is not supported by the evidence. Can we put this simplistic myth to bed?

- Lin scored 15 pts, with 5 rebs and 4 asts against the Bulls shooting 50% FG and 100% 3PT in 19 minutes against the Bulls on Nov. 3 and then on Nov. 5 against the Mavs, he got 17 minutes.

Both of those games were blowouts and his minutes were low because the end of bench guys played at the end of the 4th quarter.

- On Nov. 10 and 11 against MIN and NYK, Lin played 26 and 21 minutes respectively, scoring 19 and 17 points on good percentages, respectively. Then on Nov. 13 against the Bulls, he got 17 minutes.

Him scoring 4 points (2-7 shooting) and having 1 assist in those 17 minutes may have something to do with him not getting more burn.

[yosemiteben]

A few points I'd add to this lively debate:

1. Sacrificing wins for more minutes for Lin is a strawman argument. More time for Lin and the Hornets winning are NOT mutually exclusive. In fact, I think most Lin fans would argue that more minutes for Lin would result in better overall team play.

3. The argument that Lin will get more minutes if he plays better is not supported by the evidence. Can we put this simplistic myth to bed?

The point isn't about what actually happens. The point is Cliff is trying to win, and he will play whatever lineup he wants to to do it. I'm fine with folks saying they think Lin should get more PT in this thread, that's pretty much white noise at this point anyway because we've heard it all season. The conversation here got stimulated because a poster is alleging that Lin was lied to, which I think is an unreasonable claim.