2020 Off-season Discussion

[BlackOutBuzz]

Pistons waived Dedmon, I think he'd be worth a look.

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[Chapelchilla]

Pistons waived Dedmon, I think he'd be worth a look.

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Yeah, Dedmon or Henson would fit in fine as a back C on the cheap.

[JMAC3]

This is sort of Hayward related, but I think it is applicable to a lot of scenarios/threads.

Everyone is freaking out about Hayward money in a year we saw FVV get 22 million annually. Teams had no cap space and no real free agents worth spending on so the deal looks bigger than it actually is.

Next summer everyone has cap space. There are some really big name tier 1 guys available potentially in LBJ, Greek, PG13, Kawhi... but guess what most teams will strike out on them or they will resign with their current teams....

Leaving a bunch of teams with cap space and a bunch of B Level Free agents who are too good to be paid the MLE of 9 million so they will get overpaid because of so many teams competing.

Get ready for Lowry, Conley, Oladipo, Derozan, Drummond, Gobert, Aldridge, Schroder, Dinwiddie, Otto Porter, Oubre to all get massively overpaid because of the amount of money available...

Hayward deal will look much more manageable.

[DY_nasty]

spending money to keep a quality guy is very different than leveraging your future on a new guy's acquisition man... and all those players you listed are better than hayward has been lately or project to be in the near future

you could make a solid argument for 120 mil for all of those guys (ie: Get ready for Lowry, Conley, Oladipo, Derozan, Drummond, Gobert, Aldridge, Schroder, Dinwiddie, Otto Porter, Oubre) before Hayward too

[Braggins]

Hayward deal will look much more manageable.

This has been said about literally every bad contract the team has signed since I started following. Can anyone name a single example of a bad contract this team signed in the last decade being redeemed over time instead of the exact opposite?

[JMAC3]

Hayward deal will look much more manageable.

This has been said about literally every bad contract the team has signed since I started following. Can anyone name a single example of a bad contract this team signed in the last decade being redeemed over time instead of the exact opposite?

This is a fair point, but most of those players were just bad. I think if Hayward manages to average 18/4/4 over the next 4 years it wil be a fair contract when all is said and done. If he gets hurt or severely regresses sure we got snaked.

As far contracts that fit this mold:
Lamb 3/21 looked risky at the time, but that is only one I can think of right now.

[yosemiteben]

Hayward deal will look much more manageable.

This has been said about literally every bad contract the team has signed since I started following. Can anyone name a single example of a bad contract this team signed in the last decade being redeemed over time instead of the exact opposite?

Kemba's initial contract (the $12M per year one) had some strong naysayers, but that was a value contract when he broke out.

You might could even argue if we hadn't been underpaying Kemba, we wouldn't have given Batum that contract to begin with.

[Braggins]

Hayward deal will look much more manageable.

This has been said about literally every bad contract the team has signed since I started following. Can anyone name a single example of a bad contract this team signed in the last decade being redeemed over time instead of the exact opposite?

Kemba's initial contract (the $12M per year one) had some strong naysayers, but that was a value contract when he broke out.

You might could even argue if we hadn't been underpaying Kemba, we wouldn't have given Batum that contract to begin with.

Kemba's deal wasn't bad imo. He was young and clearly talented and there was a lot of reason to assume he was going to improve once the team stopped playing the Al Jefferson offense. I think the likelihood of him not living up to that contract was very low. He did make an unexpectedly large leap once his 3pt shot greatly improved, but that moved the contract from reasonable to a huge bargain. Even if only managed to become a mediocre outside shooter, he was still on a trajectory to be an 18/4/5 guy with solid defense and great intangibles, which would have made his 12/48 deal still a slight underpay.

[JMAC3]

spending money to keep a quality guy is very different than leveraging your future on a new guy's acquisition man... and all those players you listed are better than hayward has been lately or project to be in the near future

you could make a solid argument for 120 mil for all of those guys (ie: Get ready for Lowry, Conley, Oladipo, Derozan, Drummond, Gobert, Aldridge, Schroder, Dinwiddie, Otto Porter, Oubre) before Hayward too

Lowry is 35 years old in 2 months, Aldridge is 35 now, Conley is 33 now, Derozan is 31... and before you change your tune about players this old being paid Horford was 33 last year when Philly paid him, CP3 was 34 when he got paid, Millsap was 33 when Denver gave him 3/90 and that was when contracts were smaller.

Drummond and Gobert will get massive deals that they just won't be able to produce up to like Wall, Love and Griffin are on now. Not awful awful players, but just not worth the money.

Hayward at 30 I think is a lot but Griffin is making almost 40, Wall is making 45... I think there is a good chance Hayward can play up to this contracts value.

[DY_nasty]

Hayward deal will look much more manageable.

This has been said about literally every bad contract the team has signed since I started following. Can anyone name a single example of a bad contract this team signed in the last decade being redeemed over time instead of the exact opposite?

Kemba's initial contract (the $12M per year one) had some strong naysayers, but that was a value contract when he broke out.

You might could even argue if we hadn't been underpaying Kemba, we wouldn't have given Batum that contract to begin with.

I was going to point to Kemba as well.

No one way around saying it was an overpay at the time. But out of everyone, he's the only guy that truly panned out.

We didn't even need to give Lamb that much at all iirc. Cho just paid the guy after a few workouts

[Braggins]

This has been said about literally every bad contract the team has signed since I started following. Can anyone name a single example of a bad contract this team signed in the last decade being redeemed over time instead of the exact opposite?

Kemba's initial contract (the $12M per year one) had some strong naysayers, but that was a value contract when he broke out.

You might could even argue if we hadn't been underpaying Kemba, we wouldn't have given Batum that contract to begin with.

I was going to point to Kemba as well.

No one way around saying it was an overpay at the time. But out of everyone, he's the only guy that truly panned out.

We didn't even need to give Lamb that much at all iirc. Cho just paid the guy after a few workouts

I give more leeway if the contract is for a younger player who has talent and has shown a willingness to work to improve, especially if you can lock them down at a price that has a good chance of ending up a bargain if they continue to improve. I think the Lamb deal was a smart risk because it was pretty cheap and he clearly had some talent, but you could definitely argue Cho jumped the gun a bit. If I remember correctly they extended him like two weeks after trading for him. That one ended up panning out, but I think everyone thought it was a good deal at the time.

[BigSlam]

Hayward deal will look much more manageable.

This has been said about literally every bad contract the team has signed since I started following. Can anyone name a single example of a bad contract this team signed in the last decade being redeemed over time instead of the exact opposite?

Wallace's 1st and 2nd contract.
Felton's 1st contract.
Jefferson's contract.
Lin's contract.
Lamb's contract.
Walker's first contract.

These quickly spring to mind. I'm sure there's plenty more.

[DY_nasty]

spending money to keep a quality guy is very different than leveraging your future on a new guy's acquisition man... and all those players you listed are better than hayward has been lately or project to be in the near future

you could make a solid argument for 120 mil for all of those guys (ie: Get ready for Lowry, Conley, Oladipo, Derozan, Drummond, Gobert, Aldridge, Schroder, Dinwiddie, Otto Porter, Oubre) before Hayward too

Lowry is 35 years old in 2 months, Aldridge is 35 now, Conley is 33 now, Derozan is 31... and before you change your tune about players this old being paid Horford was 33 last year when Philly paid him, CP3 was 34 when he got paid, Millsap was 33 when Denver gave him 3/90 and that was when contracts were smaller.

Drummond and Gobert will get massive deals that they just won't be able to produce up to like Wall, Love and Griffin are on now. Not awful awful players, but just not worth the money.

Hayward at 30 I think is a lot but Griffin is making almost 40, Wall is making 45... I think there is a good chance Hayward can play up to this contracts value.

None of those guys had anything close to that kind of injury or are racking up more at the rate Hayward has, they've all won more or been further with less, and they don't have the weird logic pitfall of "4th option on good team". Lowry got 3yr/100 mil and it was worth it because he was key in getting his team a ring.

At least Horford actually helped a team win recently and has held his own against one of the best players in the league at his position. When's the last time Hayward stepped up to handle a top player in the league on both ends of the court? Imagine having to hide your veteran player on defense....

Hell, Griffin at least showed he can change his game after an injury and was playing some of the best ball of his career before Detroit shut it down to embrace the tank along with a firesale. Derozan still can't shoot a 3 but he's added facilitation to his game. LMA has a skillset much like Conley and Gobert that's gonna keep him playing for years - but he's developed a 3 point shot to go along with it. What's Hayward added?

And if you want to bring up Millsap - that's actually a great example. Denver was in position to take advantage of adding a guy of that caliber because they already had their franchise players clearly identified and they were looking for a player to fill a role and help them transition from good young team to contender. We've got NOTHING in common with Denver lol We don't have a Jokic or Murray putting the league on notice.

**But all those old guys are proven difference makers. The guys around the same age have a cleaner slate or a better body of work. And the younger guys project to be better.

Why would you take Hayward over any of them?

[DY_nasty]

Hayward deal will look much more manageable.

This has been said about literally every bad contract the team has signed since I started following. Can anyone name a single example of a bad contract this team signed in the last decade being redeemed over time instead of the exact opposite?

Wallace's 1st and 2nd contract.
Felton's 1st contract.
Jefferson's contract.
Lin's contract.
Lamb's contract.
Walker's first contract.

These quickly spring to mind. I'm sure there's plenty more.

I think some of those need context...

Lin was a handout and there's no way we're gonna act like Lamb wasn't an overpay that didn't move the needle for us at all now

[Braggins]

Hayward deal will look much more manageable.

This has been said about literally every bad contract the team has signed since I started following. Can anyone name a single example of a bad contract this team signed in the last decade being redeemed over time instead of the exact opposite?

Wallace's 1st and 2nd contract.
Felton's 1st contract.
Jefferson's contract.
Lin's contract.
Lamb's contract.
Walker's first contract.

These quickly spring to mind. I'm sure there's plenty more.

Wallace and Felton was before I started following, so I can't really comment on those.
Jefferson was a disaster here.
Lamb's contract wasn't bad.
Lin's contract wasn't bad (it was a 1-1 deal for 4 million total)
Walkers first contract wasn't bad.

[JMAC3]

spending money to keep a quality guy is very different than leveraging your future on a new guy's acquisition man... and all those players you listed are better than hayward has been lately or project to be in the near future

you could make a solid argument for 120 mil for all of those guys (ie: Get ready for Lowry, Conley, Oladipo, Derozan, Drummond, Gobert, Aldridge, Schroder, Dinwiddie, Otto Porter, Oubre) before Hayward too

Lowry is 35 years old in 2 months, Aldridge is 35 now, Conley is 33 now, Derozan is 31... and before you change your tune about players this old being paid Horford was 33 last year when Philly paid him, CP3 was 34 when he got paid, Millsap was 33 when Denver gave him 3/90 and that was when contracts were smaller.

Drummond and Gobert will get massive deals that they just won't be able to produce up to like Wall, Love and Griffin are on now. Not awful awful players, but just not worth the money.

Hayward at 30 I think is a lot but Griffin is making almost 40, Wall is making 45... I think there is a good chance Hayward can play up to this contracts value.

None of those guys had anything close to that kind of injury or are racking up more at the rate Hayward has, they've all won more or been further with less, and they don't have the weird logic pitfall of "4th option on good team". Lowry got 3yr/100 mil and it was worth it because he was key in getting his team a ring.

At least Horford actually helped a team win recently and has held his own against one of the best players in the league at his position. When's the last time Hayward stepped up to handle a top player in the league on both ends of the court? Imagine having to hide your veteran player on defense....

Hell, Griffin at least showed he can change his game after an injury and was playing some of the best ball of his career before Detroit shut it down to embrace the tank along with a firesale. Derozan still can't shoot a 3 but he's added facilitation to his game. LMA has a skillset much like Conley and Gobert that's gonna keep him playing for years - but he's developed a 3 point shot to go along with it. What's Hayward added?

And if you want to bring up Millsap - that's actually a great example. Denver was in position to take advantage of adding a guy of that caliber because they already had their franchise players clearly identified and they were looking for a player to fill a role and help them transition from good young team to contender. We've got NOTHING in common with Denver lol We don't have a Jokic or Murray putting the league on notice.

**But all those old guys are proven difference makers. The guys around the same age have a cleaner slate or a better body of work. And the younger guys project to be better.

Why would you take Hayward over any of them?

Yeah Lowry probably lived up to his last deal. My point is he going to live up to his next one? He is 34 right now, not at the end of the deal like Hayward is. So what is Lowry worth/going to get?

Aldridge probably under produced a little on his last deal, but he was still really good last year, but he is 35 now. What is he worth?what is he going to get?

Conley was a big overpay his last deal, but he is surely going to get paid decently again. I do not see him taking the MLE or a 1 year deal. What is he worth? What will he get?

Derozan is the same as Aldridge, probably under produced some for his deal, but was still good. He is 31 now. What is he worth? What will he get?

My guess all 4 of these guys get overpaid.

[Braggins]

Lin's contract was a disaster for this forum lol. I remember thinking it would be fun having the Lin crazies around here at first and it becoming completely unbearable within the first month.

[DY_nasty]

Lowry is 35 years old in 2 months, Aldridge is 35 now, Conley is 33 now, Derozan is 31... and before you change your tune about players this old being paid Horford was 33 last year when Philly paid him, CP3 was 34 when he got paid, Millsap was 33 when Denver gave him 3/90 and that was when contracts were smaller.

Drummond and Gobert will get massive deals that they just won't be able to produce up to like Wall, Love and Griffin are on now. Not awful awful players, but just not worth the money.

Hayward at 30 I think is a lot but Griffin is making almost 40, Wall is making 45... I think there is a good chance Hayward can play up to this contracts value.

None of those guys had anything close to that kind of injury or are racking up more at the rate Hayward has, they've all won more or been further with less, and they don't have the weird logic pitfall of "4th option on good team". Lowry got 3yr/100 mil and it was worth it because he was key in getting his team a ring.

At least Horford actually helped a team win recently and has held his own against one of the best players in the league at his position. When's the last time Hayward stepped up to handle a top player in the league on both ends of the court? Imagine having to hide your veteran player on defense....

Hell, Griffin at least showed he can change his game after an injury and was playing some of the best ball of his career before Detroit shut it down to embrace the tank along with a firesale. Derozan still can't shoot a 3 but he's added facilitation to his game. LMA has a skillset much like Conley and Gobert that's gonna keep him playing for years - but he's developed a 3 point shot to go along with it. What's Hayward added?

And if you want to bring up Millsap - that's actually a great example. Denver was in position to take advantage of adding a guy of that caliber because they already had their franchise players clearly identified and they were looking for a player to fill a role and help them transition from good young team to contender. We've got NOTHING in common with Denver lol We don't have a Jokic or Murray putting the league on notice.

**But all those old guys are proven difference makers. The guys around the same age have a cleaner slate or a better body of work. And the younger guys project to be better.

Why would you take Hayward over any of them?

Yeah Lowry probably lived up to his last deal. My point is he going to live up to his next one? He is 34 right now, not at the end of the deal like Hayward is. So what is Lowry worth/going to get?

Aldridge probably under produced a little on his last deal, but he was still really good last year, but he is 35 now. What is he worth?what is he going to get?

Conley was a big overpay his last deal, but he is surely going to get paid decently again. I do not see him taking the MLE or a 1 year deal. What is he worth? What will he get?

Derozan is the same as Aldridge, probably under produced some for his deal, but was still good. He is 31 now. What is he worth? What will he get?

My guess all 4 of these guys get overpaid.

There's a difference between teams matching a particular year's market value to keep talent and overpaying to bring in league-recognized marginal talent that has to be rationalized even in the absolute best case scenario. The gain/loss for those teams who know where they are, where they intend to be in set timeline, and where those players come into things is measured.

Its clear we don't do that last bit at contract time

[JMAC3]

Yeah Lowry probably lived up to his last deal. My point is he going to live up to his next one? He is 34 right now, not at the end of the deal like Hayward is. So what is Lowry worth/going to get?

Aldridge probably under produced a little on his last deal, but he was still really good last year, but he is 35 now. What is he worth?what is he going to get?

Conley was a big overpay his last deal, but he is surely going to get paid decently again. I do not see him taking the MLE or a 1 year deal. What is he worth? What will he get?

Derozan is the same as Aldridge, probably under produced some for his deal, but was still good. He is 31 now. What is he worth? What will he get?

My guess all 4 of these guys get overpaid.

There's a difference between teams matching a particular year's market value to keep talent and overpaying to bring in league-recognized marginal talent that has to be rationalized even in the absolute best case scenario. The gain/loss for those teams who know where they are, where they intend to be in set timeline, and where those players come into things is measured.

Its clear we don't do that last bit at contract time

I am lost here, can you explain what you are saying?

[Rich4114]

Why do I keep seeing the Big Al contract referenced as a disaster? We were coming off a historically bad year and just lost out on Anthony Davis to the team that left us for New Orleans. We were living in the lottery striking out. They made a move that ended up making the team competitive and it peaked 2016. Most excitement the franchise had around it since like 2001.