Leap Year - The Kemba Walker Thread III

[Mystical Apples]

Thru First 4 Seasons

Kemba
OBPM: +2.0
DBPM: -0.8
BPM: +1.2
VORP: +7.6

Conley
OBPM: +0.6
DBPM: -0.9
BPM: -0.3
VORP: +4.0

Lowry
OBPM: +0.2
DBPM: -0.2
BPM: -0.1
VORP: +2.9

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=1&y1=2015&p1=walkeke02&y2=2010&p2=lowryky01&y3=2011&p3=conlemi01&p4=&p5=&p6=

I don't even like Plus/Minus stats, but since a certain somebody do, I'll oblige

I need to get way more familiar with analytics since I honestly don't know what any of that means.

Definitely favors Walker though.

OBPM = Offensive Box Plus/Minus
DBPM = Defensive Box Plus/MInus
BPM = Box Plus/Minus (Total)
VORP = Value Over Replacement Player

I appreciate you going hard on this. I have no agenda on Kemba or anyone else for that matter. For some reason you think it's a personal thing and it's not - not sure why. Maybe it's just the UConn guys.

I think part of the issue is a fundamental misunderstanding of the metrics being compared. I'm using RPM/War (or other advanced metrics depending) because they are available to everyone and more comprehensive. The RPM stat is complex but that's fine - is a number. You're using OBPM, DBPM, BPM, and VORP. By that I'd guess you're pulling information from basketball-reference. It's a useful cite and is a good location to pull stats easily - I certainly do - but the "advanced" stats there are basic box score driven. RPM/WAR use box scores as a starting point.

BPM is to RPM like a Calculator is to Computer Operating System. RPM uses on court performance plus accounts for variables like teammates, lineup combos, opponents, how opponents did against other opponents, etc..It's also predictive. RPM is then broken down into offense (ORPM) and defense (DRPM).

PER is also box score driven but it's only offense. RPM essentially replaces both PER and BPM.

VORP is also box score driven and is based on BPM, whereas WARS is based on the more comprehensive RPM.

Anyways, I'll try to did up some information that explains it better than I can if anyone is interested.

[Liver_Pooty]

^ I'm interested. Beginning to dig this analytic stuff.

[Mystical Apples]

Here are a couple links explaining ESPN's Real Plus Minus (RPM). The first link is ESPN's own primer. It's pretty basic but gives a good overview. The second link is more detailed and gives history to the different iterations of box score measures, from basic box score plus/minus (BPM) to RPM.

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/10740818/introducing-real-plus-minus

https://cornerthreehoops.wordpress.com/2014/04/17/explaining-espns-real-plus-minus/


This last link is a roundtable discussion about what "Replacement Level" means

http://nyloncalculus.com/2015/06/22/nylon-calculus-discusses-replacement-level/

[mrknowitall215]

I need to get way more familiar with analytics since I honestly don't know what any of that means.

Definitely favors Walker though.

OBPM = Offensive Box Plus/Minus
DBPM = Defensive Box Plus/MInus
BPM = Box Plus/Minus (Total)
VORP = Value Over Replacement Player

I appreciate you going hard on this. I have no agenda on Kemba or anyone else for that matter. For some reason you think it's a personal thing and it's not - not sure why. Maybe it's just the UConn guys.

I think part of the issue is a fundamental misunderstanding of the metrics being compared. I'm using RPM/War (or other advanced metrics depending) because they are available to everyone and more comprehensive. The RPM stat is complex but that's fine - is a number. You're using OBPM, DBPM, BPM, and VORP. By that I'd guess you're pulling information from basketball-reference. It's a useful cite and is a good location to pull stats easily - I certainly do - but the "advanced" stats there are basic box score driven. RPM/WAR use box scores as a starting point.

BPM is to RPM like a Calculator is to Computer Operating System. RPM uses on court performance plus accounts for variables like teammates, lineup combos, opponents, how opponents did against other opponents, etc..It's also predictive. RPM is then broken down into offense (ORPM) and defense (DRPM).

PER is also box score driven but it's only offense. RPM essentially replaces both PER and BPM.

VORP is also box score driven and is based on BPM, whereas WARS is based on the more comprehensive RPM.

Anyways, I'll try to did up some information that explains it better than I can if anyone is interested.

I'm waiting for you to show me where you're able to dig up RPM stats for Conley and/or Lowry first 4 years in the NBA when the metric wasn't introduced until 2013-14 without a clear indicator on how the statistic is calculated

[Liver_Pooty]

You guys continue to debate please. I think analytics is bull, but I do enjoy being educated.

[Mystical Apples]

Here is some Hornet specific stuff, mostly shooting and passing.

Link discussing poor ball movement, not just PG. Batum is an upgrade over Henderson.

http://www.vantagesports.com/story/VYcqKywAAC0AwO-n/the-hockey-assist-much-rarer-for-poor-passing-teams

http://www.vantagesports.com/story/VLWbbSMAABhrQX0w/the-passing-pyramid


Why Mike Conley is really effective (and what Charlotte can learn)

http://www.vantagesports.com/story/VIslyykAAN4BHA9q/mike-conley-better-with-vantage


Why another shooter should start, maybe Hawes but hopefully Kaminsky (ball mover)

http://www.gotbuckets.com/2014/05/01/part-2-big-men-and-three-point-shooting/

[mrknowitall215]

You guys continue to debate please. I think analytics is bull, but I do enjoy being educated.

RPM is a extremely flawed advanced statistic (much more so than PER) to weigh a player on, but I noticed that 'Mystical Apples' love to use this statistic to determine how good a player is, so I'm willing to play if he can somehow dig up RPM statistics from 2007-2012 and give me a link that'll show me the metrics on Conley/Lowry to compare to Kemba's first 4 years in the NBA

If I heavily believed in RPM statistics the way 'Mystical Apples' do, then I would have to believe that Tyler Hansbrough (2.46) was better than Pau Gasol (2.30) & Al Horford (2.14) last season

[Mystical Apples]

If you took the time to understand you'd realize that RPM is also *predictive* - as in Walker's negative number is foreshadowing. He's 36th in the league for PG's and entering his 5th year. If RPM isn't enough for you (it should be because it is) there are plenty of other resources better than your BPM abacus. But I have a feeling none of it matters - if your take is Kemba is Conley's peer 4 years in then knock yourself.

[Mystical Apples]

You guys continue to debate please. I think analytics is bull, but I do enjoy being educated.

RPM is a extremely flawed advanced statistic (much more so than PER) to weigh a player on, but I noticed that 'Mystical Apples' love to use this statistic to determine how good a player is, so I'm willing to play if he can somehow dig up RPM statistics from 2007-2012 and give me a link that'll show me the metrics on Conley/Lowry to compare to Kemba's first 4 years in the NBA

If I heavily believed in RPM statistics the way 'Mystical Apples' do, then I would have to believe that Tyler Hansbrough (2.46) was better than Pau Gasol (2.30) & Al Horford (2.14) last season

God this is silly - TH is a smaller sample size. It's all there if you cared to learn.

[jeroka]

any chance Kemba Walker improves his FG%?

[mrknowitall215]

You guys continue to debate please. I think analytics is bull, but I do enjoy being educated.

RPM is a extremely flawed advanced statistic (much more so than PER) to weigh a player on, but I noticed that 'Mystical Apples' love to use this statistic to determine how good a player is, so I'm willing to play if he can somehow dig up RPM statistics from 2007-2012 and give me a link that'll show me the metrics on Conley/Lowry to compare to Kemba's first 4 years in the NBA

If I heavily believed in RPM statistics the way 'Mystical Apples' do, then I would have to believe that Tyler Hansbrough (2.46) was better than Pau Gasol (2.30) & Al Horford (2.14) last season

God this is silly - TH is a smaller sample size. It's all there if you cared to learn.

Smaller sample size didn't stop you from calling Cody Zeller the Hornets' best player based on RPM when he had the 8th most minutes per game on the team, did it?

[Mystical Apples]

RPM is a extremely flawed advanced statistic (much more so than PER) to weigh a player on, but I noticed that 'Mystical Apples' love to use this statistic to determine how good a player is, so I'm willing to play if he can somehow dig up RPM statistics from 2007-2012 and give me a link that'll show me the metrics on Conley/Lowry to compare to Kemba's first 4 years in the NBA

If I heavily believed in RPM statistics the way 'Mystical Apples' do, then I would have to believe that Tyler Hansbrough (2.46) was better than Pau Gasol (2.30) & Al Horford (2.14) last season

God this is silly - TH is a smaller sample size. It's all there if you cared to learn.

Smaller sample size didn't stop you from calling Cody Zeller the Hornets' best player based on RPM when he had the 8th most minutes per game on the team, did it?

It's all there. Hint: predictive.

[mrknowitall215]

If you took the time to understand you'd realize that RPM is also *predictive* - as in Walker's negative number is foreshadowing. He's 36th in the league for PG's and entering his 5th year. If RPM isn't enough for you (it should be because it is) there are plenty of other resources better than your BPM abacus. But I have a feeling none of it matters - if your take is Kemba is Conley's peer 4 years in then knock yourself.

How is RPM predictive and foreshadowing if Cody Zeller can be 5th in the league for PFs one year and 58th the previous year?

[Mystical Apples]

If you took the time to understand you'd realize that RPM is also *predictive* - as in Walker's negative number is foreshadowing. He's 36th in the league for PG's and entering his 5th year. If RPM isn't enough for you (it should be because it is) there are plenty of other resources better than your BPM abacus. But I have a feeling none of it matters - if your take is Kemba is Conley's peer 4 years in then knock yourself.

How is RPM predictive and foreshadowing if Cody Zeller can be 5th in the league for PFs one year and 58th the previous year?

Seriously, you're asking me to now explain proprietary modeling? Cody improved, he's taller, and he's a lot younger.

[TinmanZBoy]

any chance Kemba Walker improves his FG%?

any chance "jeroka" improves his basketball knowledge?

[mrknowitall215]

any chance Kemba Walker improves his FG%?

That's wishful thinking and hopeful with the addition of better perimeter shooters, but we'll see. If Kemba doesn't shoot at least 42% I think he'd be rightfully ridiculed all season. FG% is probably his most glaring flaw

[mrknowitall215]

If you took the time to understand you'd realize that RPM is also *predictive* - as in Walker's negative number is foreshadowing. He's 36th in the league for PG's and entering his 5th year. If RPM isn't enough for you (it should be because it is) there are plenty of other resources better than your BPM abacus. But I have a feeling none of it matters - if your take is Kemba is Conley's peer 4 years in then knock yourself.

How is RPM predictive and foreshadowing if Cody Zeller can be 5th in the league for PFs one year and 58th the previous year?

Seriously, you're asking me to now explain proprietary modeling? Cody improved, he's taller, and he's a lot younger.

The synopsis of the discussion in comparing Kemba to Conley/Lowry was that they improved upon the player(s) they were early in their careers. You're the one making obnoxious statements with no bearing. I'm just mocking the hypocrisy in your statements right back at you

[catch20two]

Kyrie went from being worse than Mario Chalmers last year based on RPM to 9th best PG in the NBA a couple notches under George Hill this past year. Numbers don't lie.

[Mystical Apples]

How is RPM predictive and foreshadowing if Cody Zeller can be 5th in the league for PFs one year and 58th the previous year?

Seriously, you're asking me to now explain proprietary modeling? Cody improved, he's taller, and he's a lot younger.

The synopsis of the discussion in comparing Kemba to Conley/Lowry was that they improved upon the player(s) they were early in their careers. You're the one making obnoxious statements with no bearing. I'm just mocking the idiocy in your statements right back at you

lol - you said you didn't understand. I thought you meant that figuratively but now I see you were being literal. He has shown little propensity to improve. If you feel he's as good as player "X" then ok. But as of today, he's barely a starter on a non-playoff team and maybe not for long

[Mystical Apples]

Kyrie went from being worst than Mario Chalmers last year based on RPM to 9th best PG in the NBA a couple notches under George Hill this past year. Numbers don't lie.

The first 3-4 years really matters. That's when most players have huge jumps and why I'm skeptical Kemba will show drastic improvements. Plus he's smallish and a bad shooter - has been his whole career.