Fake Trade Thread 2014-15

[HornetJail]

The day Zeller finishes a season with a PER above 15 will be the day I'd believe he could be a legit starter in the NBA. Like I've stated, I'm a big fan of PER although I don't limit my evaluation to it, but it shows consistency when a player can be that efficient for 4 straight years without wavering below what's considered average. When I delve into Davis' split stats, the only thing he's missing is consistent minutes. In the 58 games he's started in his career (54 w/ TOR, 4 w/MEM) he's averaged 11 points on 54% shooting and 8 rebounds in 31 minutes with a +3 net rating

It's not really realistic to ask every eventual starter to put up a 15 PER as a rookie.
Of rookies who played decent minutes this season, Zeller had the 5th highest PER at 13.1. Only Plumlee, MCW, and Olynyk had 15+ PERs.

I hope you're not seriously using this past year's draft class as a gauge of expectations to live up to. This past year's draft class was one of the worst ever. On the whim, without looking, I would probably trade the #5 pick from 2013 for the #20 pick from 2014 and feel good about it

No, but there are some decent talents. Oladipo, Burke, MCW, Adams, Giannis, Zeller, Plumlee, and a few others will be starters on good teams someday. Those are the guys I'm comparing him to. I didn't expect anyone we picked in 2013 to be better than that, which was why I was so damn adamant about trading down or out last year.

[mrknowitall215]

No, but there are some decent talents. Oladipo, Burke, MCW, Adams, Giannis, Zeller, Plumlee, and a few others will be starters on good teams someday. Those are the guys I'm comparing him to. I didn't expect anyone we picked in 2013 to be better than that, which was why I was so damn adamant about trading down or out last year.

The only guys on that list that 'I' expect to be legitimate starters in the league into the future are Victor Oladipo and Kelly Olynyk while I think Mason Plumlee, Tim Hardaway Jr., Steven Adams, and Giannis Antetokounmpo will be fringe starters at best but more likely above average backups. My personal bias as Trey Burke fan view him as a outlier that could be a starter despite his abysmal rookie season, but you could seriously take that with a grain of salt since it's just a bias tilted to favor who I favor

[TheKingofSting2]

No, but there are some decent talents. Oladipo, Burke, MCW, Adams, Giannis, Zeller, Plumlee, and a few others will be starters on good teams someday. Those are the guys I'm comparing him to. I didn't expect anyone we picked in 2013 to be better than that, which was why I was so damn adamant about trading down or out last year.

The only guys on that list that 'I' expect to be legitimate starters in the league into the future are Victor Oladipo and Kelly Olynyk while I think Mason Plumlee, Tim Hardaway Jr., Steven Adams, and Giannis Antetokounmpo will be fringe starters at best but morel likely above average backups. My personal bias as Trey Burke fan view him as a outlier that could be a starter despite his abysmal rookie season, but you could seriously take that with a grain of salt since it's just a bias tilted to favor who I favor

You give Zeller not enough credit.

[mrknowitall215]

You give Zeller not enough credit.

I meant to put Zeller (and MCW) into my fringe starter/above average backup at best category. I don't think Zeller will bust out of the league or anything, but I don't think he'll ever live up to his #4 pick billing, the LaMarcus Aldridge comparison, nor the legit 'stretch 4' projection

[Bassman]

You give Zeller not enough credit.

I meant to put Zeller (and MCW) into my fringe starter/above average backup at best category. I don't think Zeller will bust out of the league or anything, but I don't think he'll ever live up to his #4 pick billing, the LaMarcus Aldridge comparison, nor the legit 'stretch 4' projection

I see a lot of the same things with Zeller. He seems to me to be a classic "jack of all trades, master of none" guy. He has some skills, some very good athleticism but low hops, good height but average length, generally good mechanics but an inconsistent shot. He can improve his shooting but he will not be a stretch 4. He can add strength but doesn't look to have the genes to put on a lot. His rear/trunk is not designed as a typical space-making 5, but I still think that is his future here. Today's NBA has few traditional 5's anyway. He should work to learn post moves from Al, mix that with his shot practice, get strong everywhere (especially lower body) and see what he can become.

[Snidely FC]

Trade Gary Neal to HOU for Lin.

We get our backup PG and sell boatloads of merch overseas, easily paying back the $3M mgmt keeps telling us it cost them to change team name back to the Hornets.

[mrknowitall215]

Trade Gary Neal to HOU for Lin.

We get our backup PG and sell boatloads of merch overseas, easily paying back the $3M mgmt keeps telling us it cost them to change team name back to the Hornets.

Only becomes tempting if Greivis Vasquez re-signs with Toronto. Not a bad idea though. I wonder, do Lin's final year count as $14.9 million or $8.3 million against the cap? I'm heard people sway it both ways, but I never got a definitive answer

[BlackOutBuzz]

$8.3m against cap, but he actually makes $14.9m.

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[mrknowitall215]

$8.3m against cap, but he actually makes $14.9m.

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That's what make it difficult to comprehend for me. If we traded for Lin, would Jordan have to pay him $14.9 million for that season even though only $8.3 of it would count against the cap, or do Houston pay the rest similar to the amnesty clause?

[BlackOutBuzz]

Honestly I'm not as familiar with these "poison pill" deals, it stands to reason that we'd expect cash as well but we can only take back $3.2m annually.

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[Snidely FC]

That $15M is an actual payment (unless as Blackoutbobcat states HOU paying some of it were to become part of the trade).

Silver lining: Jeremy Lin + Jordan Brand = match made in merchandising heaven = subsidize his salary.

[Vanderbilt_Grad]

$8.3m against cap, but he actually makes $14.9m.

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That's what make it difficult to comprehend for me. If we traded for Lin, would Jordan have to pay him $14.9 million for that season even though only $8.3 of it would count against the cap, or do Houston pay the rest similar to the amnesty clause?

The first.

[mrknowitall215]

$8.3m against cap, but he actually makes $14.9m.

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That's what make it difficult to comprehend for me. If we traded for Lin, would Jordan have to pay him $14.9 million for that season even though only $8.3 of it would count against the cap, or do Houston pay the rest similar to the amnesty clause?

The first.

If that's the case, then I don't see how any team would be interested in Lin unless they're having a hard time meeting the salary floor. Consider me very disinterested, being that the franchise would lose unnecessary money for a player that isn't superiorly if a better fit than players that are currently available via free agency for less

[LamarMatic7]

Honestly I'm not as familiar with these "poison pill" deals, it stands to reason that we'd expect cash as well but we can only take back $3.2m annually.

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I think that the "poison pill" deal is what they call the Gilbert Arenas provision nowadays. It is (and now I'm talking about the Arenas provision, perhaps, they aren't the same thing) designed for rookies with contracts that hit the free agency after their second season. After Arenas unexpectedly performed very well at Golden State after being a lowly draft pick, Washington offered him a ton of cash. Golden State would have wanted to match it, yet they were over the cap and thus could have only used their Early Bird rights. However, their Early Bird rights were nowhere near the offer sheet the Wizards threw at Arenas thus making it impossible for the Dubs to re-sign Arenas.

To prevent such loop-holes there is the possibility of that contract with an unusual raise in the third year. You can still throw a whole lot of money at that guy, like Washington did, yet it would be structured so the team that owns the player can match the first two years with its Early Bird rights. The other team's offer has a whole lot of back-loaded money that kicks in the third year and that's were the big bucks come in that other teams with cap space can offer.

That's at least my understanding of this whole deal.

[BlackOutBuzz]

Yeah I'm familiar with the Arenas provision, and that the Lin/Asik deals apply, what I was saying is I'm uncertain on how a trade would work with them.

Seems to me there would be cause for the Rockets to pay the portion that's already hit their cap (a la NFL cap rules), but everything I've read implies the burden would rest on the new team.

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[TheKingofSting2]

$8.3m against cap, but he actually makes $14.9m.

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It is worth it imo. They have to be looking to trade him regardless now after they put a billboard up with Melo in Lin's number.

[Snidely FC]

That's what make it difficult to comprehend for me. If we traded for Lin, would Jordan have to pay him $14.9 million for that season even though only $8.3 of it would count against the cap, or do Houston pay the rest similar to the amnesty clause?

The first.

If that's the case, then I don't see how any team would be interested in Lin unless they're having a hard time meeting the salary floor. Consider me very disinterested, being that the franchise would lose unnecessary money for a player that isn't superiorly if a better fit than players that are currently available via free agency for less

Looks like your 6ers might be that team.

[mrknowitall215]

Are we sure we can't dump Henderson nor Neal on the Thunder? They seem a little half empty at that position, and will probably sign some undrafted rookie like Roberson last year to fill depth at the position

[doc.end]

Wiki on poison pill ->

Teams are limited in what they can offer an unrestricted free agent with two years or less experience. The maximum first-year salary in an offer sheet is the mid-level exception. The second-year salary can be raised a maximum of 4.5%. The third year salary is limited to the maximum a team has available in their salary cap. The salary in the fourth season may increase (or decrease) by up to 4.1% of the salary in the third season. The offer sheet can only increase in the third season if it provides the highest salary allowed in the first two seasons, the contract is fully guaranteed, and it contains no bonuses.[10][28] A player's original team can use the Early Bird exception or their Mid-Level exception to re-sign the player.[10]

If the raise in the third season is greater than 4.5% of the first year, the offering team must be able to fit the average of the entire contract under their cap. The accounting is different for the player's original team, where the player's salary for a given year—not the contract's average—is counted against the cap. In some cases, the offering team can exploit a loophole to create what is referred to as a poison pill for the player's original team, potentially forcing the original team to pay the luxury tax by the third season, as the Houston Rockets did in order to sign Jeremy Lin and Ömer Aşık away from the New York Knicks and Chicago Bulls, respectively. This could discourage them from matching the offer sheet.[29][30]

[doc.end]

We need a tad below 10.6M in outgoing salaries for sign and trade trade for max player coming from his rookie contract (Stephenson, Hayward, etc.) Not advocating anything, just throwing it out here.

that means (scenarios with Hendo included only)

Hendo + MKG works
Hendo, Cody, Taylor works
Hendo, Bismack, Taylor works
Hendo + 2 of (MKG, Cody, Bismack, Neal, Kemba, Haywood*) works with or without Taylor thrown in

*the 45th pick trade not official yet, so i included him

Now maybe less than max would be needed in some cases but there is no fine lead to guess how much. Also Gee could be included as well as long as Deeks' premises in this http://www.thescore.com/nba/news/528321 are right (great read!).