The Portland Pick Watch Thread (as of 3/19)

[JT2006]

I seriously don't think we can add anybody with the Portland pick that will be definitively good. Best case scenario is getting a Goodwin, Poythress, Cauley-Stein, Adams, MCW type of underachieving freshman but long on potential that figures it out and makes strides as a pro. The Olynyks and Plumlees of the world aren't locks to contribute IMO.

also worth noting that we'd be able to trade it if we were stuck with the #4 pick and wanted #1 or #2

[mourvedre]

Moving from 4 to 1 or 2 would need more than portland pick though...

[Elden Payton]

He never said it wouldn't.

[fatlever]

hypothetically, what do you think it would take to move from #4 to #1 next year IF wiggins is a good as advertised?

in this scenario we have our pick #4, lets say we have portland pick at #14 and the detroit pick at #10.

would you trade #4, #10 and #14 for #1? would that be enough? would you add biz or MKG and take back a back contract?

[BlackOutBuzz]

http://probasketballtalk.nbcsports.com/ ... hats-a-no/

"Sources say the Cavs offered (the Hornets the) No. 4, No. 24, No. 33 and No. 34 for No. 1. And sources said the Cavs got a firm and quick 'No!'"

As good as Wiggins is...I'd probably do all that you mention above, short of trading MKG, without blinking; and even that I may have to consider...

[HornetJail]

I'd trade our 2013 pick in a package for Wiggins before trading MKG.

[KingExecutive]

Clemson

OT: I'm afraid I'm surrounded by rival fans (UNC, Duke, USC), so I'll keep Clemson on the down low.

But as I'm unfamiliar with the way protected picks work, can someone update me on our chances for the Portland pick as of today? Who do we need to win more/lose more in order to get the pick this year?

[JT2006]

hypothetically, what do you think it would take to move from #4 to #1 next year IF wiggins is a good as advertised?

in this scenario we have our pick #4, lets say we have portland pick at #14 and the detroit pick at #10.

would you trade #4, #10 and #14 for #1? would that be enough? would you add biz or MKG and take back a back contract?

I'd trade #4 and #10 for it. Depending on how our roster looks in 2014, #14 as well. We might need three guys more than we need one guy. 3 lottery picks is still valuable.

[BlackOutBuzz]

Clemson

OT: I'm afraid I'm surrounded by rival fans (UNC, Duke, USC), so I'll keep Clemson on the down low.

But as I'm unfamiliar with the way protected picks work, can someone update me on our chances for the Portland pick as of today? Who do we need to win more/lose more in order to get the pick this year?

Basically, since the pick is top 12 protected, we need Portland to finish no lower than 13th. Obviously we want them to fall as close to that as possible without going under, like inverse Price is Right. ( at my own joke there)

If the season ended today, Portland would be 12th in the draft order, prior to the lottery. In that case we wouldn't get the pick.... UNLESS one of the teams behind them jump into the top 3 via the lottery and push them back to 13th. That said, they themselves could jump into the top 3 even if they finish in the desired range, in which case they'd keep the pick.

We really won't know until after the draft lottery, but the best case scenario is for them to finish 13th. They're currently a half game behind Dallas, if they catch them they'd fall to 13th in the draft order and we'd get the pick (lottery pending). Basically, to get the pick this year: we need the Blazers to win, we need all the teams behind them to stay behind them, and we need at least one of the teams right ahead of the Blazers to fall behind them (Lakers, Jazz, Mavs, and Rockets are all within 4.5 games).

[fatlever]

i updated the main page with the following

A place to keep track of the pick owed to us by the Blazers.

: • Portland trades a 2013 first round pick (top 12 protected in 2013-2015, unprotected 2016) to Charlotte as part of the Gerald Wallace/Joel Przybilla trade.

From DraftExpress.com http://www.draftexpress.com#ixzz2M1pAbFuP
http://www.draftexpress.com




Reverse Standings as of 3-19-2013
1. Charlotte 15 wins
2. Orlando 18
3. Cleveland 22
4. New Orleans 22
5. Detroit 23
6. Phoenix 23
7. Sacramento 23
8. Washington 23
9. Minnesota 23
10. Philadelphia 26
11. Toronto 26
12. Portland 31
------------------------ protection cut off
13. Dallas 32
14. Utah 34
------------------------ playoffs
15. Milwaukee 33
16. Lakers 36
17. Houston 36
18. Boston 36
19. Chicago 36

3-19-2013, we would NOT get the portland pick. it will be a race between portland, dallas and utah to see which two of those three teams finish in spots 13 and 14. we need portland to finish ahead of either dallas or utah.

if you want us to get the pick this year, root for portland and against dallas and utah
if you do not want us to get the pick this year, root for dallas and utah and against portland

[fatlever]

interesting side plot - spots 3 thru 9 in the draft lottery are separated by 1 win. look for all of those teams - hornets, pistons, kings, twolves, cavs, suns and wizards to tank their brains out in the final few weeks.

[BlackOutBuzz]

3-19-2013, we would NOT get the portland pick. it will be a race between portland, dallas and utah to see which two of those three teams finish in spots 13 and 14. we need portland to finish ahead of either dallas or utah.

I touched on it in my post, but even if the season ended today we would still have a (miniscule) chance of getting the pick this year. Protection isn't based on draft order at season's end, but on the order post-lottery. So even if Portland finished 12th, if Dallas or Utah jump them in the lottery and push them the 13th, we'd get the pick.

[Eoghan]

Question: Would you rather trade this pick for Thomas Robinson or Derrick Williams?

[HornetJail]

T-Rob, pretty easily.

[BlackOutBuzz]

My first thought would be Robinson, but Williams has really been playing well with Love out. Especially since late Feb, he's had like half a dozen 20-10 games, including a 24-16 showing.

[James Gatz]

Question: Would you rather trade this pick for Thomas Robinson or Derrick Williams?

T-Rob but I doubt we could either. Why do people seem to think Houston, who got Robinson in a steal, would trade him away for late lottery pick?

[Elden Payton]

Question: Would you rather trade this pick for Thomas Robinson or Derrick Williams?

Great question BD.

I think we let the Derrick Williams ship sail and I personally think he would be playing even better had he been playing for us and our historically horrendous frontfourt.

I don't think we'll get him for a late lotto after he's "arrived" so to speak but we sure as hell could get T-Rob for the PDX pick and JT imo.

Robinson fits more into the Charlotte mold though imo, he is a high intensity player and is gritty and hits the boards hard which is exactly what we need, on his day he can hit from mid range but despite having this shot it is wildly inconsistent. He shows some signs of being able to develop a post game but that is a few seasons away.

He thinks he's a SF at times but that is just ego, he would provide a lot of "spine" to our team with his grime.

[Liver_Pooty]

Question: Would you rather trade this pick for Thomas Robinson or Derrick Williams?

I go with Williams. Robinson hasnt showed anything at all since being the league, and although Sacramento might be the worst run franchise in the NBA they saw him more than anyone, and if he had potential they wouldnt have sent him packing for a box of condoms.

[Elden Payton]

Question: Would you rather trade this pick for Thomas Robinson or Derrick Williams?

T-Rob but I doubt we could either. Why do people seem to think Houston, who got Robinson in a steal, would trade him away for late lottery pick?

Because he hasn't been very good and at this point is probably not even a top ten pick, Henson for instance would probably go ahead of him!!!!!!

Thomas Robinson is averaging 4.7 points and 4.5 rebounds on 43 percent in 15.4 mpg, hardly inspiring but I really believe it is cirumstance

Here is Houston's depth chart-

Lin/Brooks/Beverley
Harden/Delfino/Anderson/Garcia
Parsons/Delfino/Garcia
Smith/Robinson/Motiejunas/Jones/White
Asik/Smith/Motiejunas/Olbrecht

Look at their logjam at PF still, Houston traded for Robinson thinking he would be their starter but he still can't find consistent minutes.

This team is going to be the major player in free agency and will go for all the bigs and will probably land TWO of them to add to Harden and Co.

Robinson is expendable in Houston, we assume that the Magoofs cashed out on Robinson and Petrie is losing his mind but his value league wide is so low and this would probably be the best deal on the table for him.

[James Gatz]

Robinson was a top 5 pick a year ago. I seriously doubt they send him off for something with as little value as a 12-14 pick in a weak draft. It doesn't matter how poorly he's played this year. He still holds far more value than that. Morey is the type of GM that builds assets. That's what the Robinson trade was about.