Fool Me Twice: The Gordon Hayward Thread

[Rich4114]

I don't really think a lot of you are understanding that the value of 2nd round picks is not what it was 5-10 years ago. It is much higher now because the NBA actually has a developmental system and a structure for teams to incubate talent. You could argue that no team has done that better or benefited more from that than the Hornets. Graham, Cody Martin, McDaniels. We have one starter averaging almost 20ppg and two rotational contributors (one probably a big rotational contributor) just from the last few 2nd rounds alone. Wait till we see what Carey brings us. I love the piling up of 2nd round picks for a team like us, it gives us more bites at the apple to generate talent.

[BlackOutBuzz]

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What a weird structure. So he gets the full 5% raises between years 1 and 2 & 3 and 4, but the middle years are effectively flat.

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There's some tinfoil-y stuff about this out on Twitter that probably isn't true, but perhaps worth mentioning. The middle years being essentially $30M each leads one to suspect that perhaps the contract originally being discussed was actually for a flat $30M/yr. Then, perhaps, something changed and led them to agree to take $1.5M from year 1 and add it to year 4.

What might have changed? Well, Boston came calling for that TPE, which is tied only to the first year salary. Not saying they were trying to screw Boston, but they are still competing with this team, and that $28.5M TPE is less than $50k away from being enough to take in D'Angelo Russell. It's also $150k shy of being enough for Beal or Drummond.

Had they gotten the full $30M TPE, they could've taken in those guys or any of: Steven Adams, Jokic, Wiggins, Embiid, Porzingis, Booker, Towns, or McCollum. But that $1.5M dip takes them all off the table for Boston.

So why $28.5M instead of going to the minimum of $27.9M? Well, there's literally only one other guy that they couldn't get if the TPE were any lower: Otto Porter. And plus, Hayward may not have wanted to go any lower in year 1.

There are obviously still several quality players that they could get with the TPE they do have, but few seem as available/good as a Beal or Drummond: DeRozan, Horford, Vucevic, Barnes, Hield?

It's important to remember, too, that TPE's cannot be combined with other players to make a larger salary fit. So the only way to acquire a star player with it is to send out picks (and non-aggregated salary, which essentially becomes a 2nd trade). There's a reason most of these just expire.

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[Rich4114]

Read on Twitter

What a weird structure. So he gets the full 5% raises between years 1 and 2 & 3 and 4, but the middle years are effectively flat.

Sent from my SM-G975U using RealGM mobile app

There's some tinfoil-y stuff about this out on Twitter that probably isn't true, but perhaps worth mentioning. The middle years being essentially $30M each leads one to suspect that perhaps the contract originally being discussed was actually for a flat $30M/yr. Then, perhaps, something changed and led them to agree to take $1.5M from year 1 and add it to year 4.

What might have changed? Well, Boston came calling for that TPE, which is tied only to the first year salary. Not saying they were trying to screw Boston, but they are still competing with this team, and that $28.5M TPE is less than $50k away from being enough to take in D'Angelo Russell. It's also $150k shy of being enough for Beal or Drummond.

Had they gotten the full $30M TPE, they could've taken in those guys or any of: Steven Adams, Jokic, Wiggins, Embiid, Porzingis, Booker, Towns, or McCollum. But that $1.5M dip takes them all off the table for Boston.

So why $28.5M instead of going to the minimum of $27.9M? Well, there's literally only one other guy that they couldn't get if the TPE were any lower: Otto Porter. And plus, Hayward may not have wanted to go any lower in year 1.

There are obviously still several quality players that they could get with the TPE they do have, but few seem as available/good as a Beal or Drummond: DeRozan, Horford, Vucevic, Barnes, Hield?

It's important to remember, too, that TPE's cannot be combined with other players to make a larger salary fit. So the only way to acquire a star player with it is to send out picks (and non-aggregated salary, which essentially becomes a 2nd trade). There's a reason most of these just expire.

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It sounds like the rules are pretty tight to make sure teams couldn't get around salary cap limitations unless the circumstances were fairly unique. We had that big Dwight TPE we never used for example. I am sure we would've used it, but who wants to trade a good player on a salary that big for basically nothing?

[DY_nasty]

I'm curious to see how Mitch will spin this acquisition since this move has MJ's handprint. Stretching Nic's contract makes me sick. For Mitch and MJ's sake, they should pray to all the gods that this move won't blow up to their faces.

Hope it does blow up. MJ can go now

[JMAC3]

I'm curious to see how Mitch will spin this acquisition since this move has MJ's handprint. Stretching Nic's contract makes me sick. For Mitch and MJ's sake, they should pray to all the gods that this move won't blow up to their faces.

Hope it does blow up. MJ can go now

Why would you root for this? Wouldn't you rather have Hayward have a Kyle Lowry esq run over the next 4 seasons?

Also, MJ is the owner, nobody is firing him from the team.

[luciano-davidwesley]

Now confirmed:

CHA 2022 2nd pick to Boston (top 55 protected)
BOS 2023 2nd pick to Charlotte
BOS 2024 2nd pick to Charlotte

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At least there is a tiny chance the picks are early/mid second round in the unlikely event Boston implodes and the team declines in a few years.

[wilson115]

I don't really think a lot of you are understanding that the value of 2nd round picks is not what it was 5-10 years ago. It is much higher now because the NBA actually has a developmental system and a structure for teams to incubate talent. You could argue that no team has done that better or benefited more from that than the Hornets. Graham, Cody Martin, McDaniels. We have one starter averaging almost 20ppg and two rotational contributors (one probably a big rotational contributor) just from the last few 2nd rounds alone. Wait till we see what Carey brings us. I love the piling up of 2nd round picks for a team like us, it gives us more bites at the apple to generate talent.

You're right but we can trade for or buy 2nd-round picks on any given draft night.

[DY_nasty]

I'm curious to see how Mitch will spin this acquisition since this move has MJ's handprint. Stretching Nic's contract makes me sick. For Mitch and MJ's sake, they should pray to all the gods that this move won't blow up to their faces.

Hope it does blow up. MJ can go now

Why would you root for this? Wouldn't you rather have Hayward have a Kyle Lowry esq run over the next 4 seasons?

Also, MJ is the owner, nobody is firing him from the team.

MJ is the guy who called Hayward to seal the deal. Its not just the GM.

I like what Jordan has done for the organization, but if these are the types of basketball decisions he's about - then he can leave. I like the Hornets and I like MJ. But both of them together clearly don't equal success past a certain point.

I hope the heat from around the league and sport media coverage start to really call him out. Its obvious that the majority of the fan base is too beaten down or simply non-existent to demand any kind of accountability regarding the management of the team.

[vexco]

Hope it does blow up. MJ can go now

Why would you root for this? Wouldn't you rather have Hayward have a Kyle Lowry esq run over the next 4 seasons?

Also, MJ is the owner, nobody is firing him from the team.

MJ is the guy who called Hayward to seal the deal. Its not just the GM.

I like what Jordan has done for the organization, but if these are the types of basketball decisions he's about - then he can leave. I like the Hornets and I like MJ. But both of them together clearly don't equal success past a certain point.

I hope the heat from around the league and sport media coverage start to really call him out. Its obvious that the majority of the fan base is too beaten down or simply non-existent to demand any kind of accountability regarding the management of the team.

No real point in complaining until we see how it plays out.

[Rays Pompadour]

Hope it does blow up. MJ can go now

Why would you root for this? Wouldn't you rather have Hayward have a Kyle Lowry esq run over the next 4 seasons?

Also, MJ is the owner, nobody is firing him from the team.

MJ is the guy who called Hayward to seal the deal. Its not just the GM.

I like what Jordan has done for the organization, but if these are the types of basketball decisions he's about - then he can leave. I like the Hornets and I like MJ. But both of them together clearly don't equal success past a certain point.

I hope the heat from around the league and sport media coverage start to really call him out. Its obvious that the majority of the fan base is too beaten down or simply non-existent to demand any kind of accountability regarding the management of the team.

The big problem with owner accountability is that the NBA is a revenue sharing organization. Bad teams still get a cut of the TV revenue and other league-specific entities that are collectively bargained. NBA franchises are immensely profitable, no matter how well or badly run they are.

The Hornets overpaid for Hayward. They hampered cap flexibility by stretching Batum. They short-circuited the rebuild...again. All legit critiques. But how we, the fans, measure success is in wins and losses. That's the bottom line. Owners, however, have a different bottom line and there's no measurement for that that we can hold Jordan accountable to.

[DY_nasty]

The big problem with owner accountability is that the NBA is a revenue sharing organization. Bad teams still get a cut of the TV revenue and other league-specific entities that are collectively bargained. NBA franchises are immensely profitable, no matter how well or badly run they are.

The Hornets overpaid for Hayward. They hampered cap flexibility by stretching Batum. They short-circuited the rebuild...again. All legit critiques. But how we, the fans, measure success is in wins and losses. That's the bottom line. Owners, however, have a different bottom line and there's no measurement for that that we can hold Jordan accountable to.

I can only hope that Charlotte's growth as a city and market leads the rest of the sports world to acknowledge the potential losses of not seeing a team flourish here. Or that MJ gets identified as a below average owner more than a basketball icon. As is, the fan base is too small and at the same time too okay with rationalizing legitimately terrible decision making.

Better than hoping Hayward is gonna suddenly play the best basketball of his life for the next 4 years and turn the franchise around.

No real point in complaining until we see how it plays out.

I don't know why yal say "wait and see" like the roof on this type of move is obvious from the moment its announced

There is no realistic scenario where this morphs into some amazing move man. Just call it like it is. You can be positive and acknowledge the limits of a player/plan at the same time.

Saying everything is fine when it isn't is worse. Acknowledge the problem.

[JMAC3]

I don't know why yal say "wait and see" like the roof on this type of move is obvious from the moment its announced

There is no realistic scenario where this morphs into some amazing move man. Just call it like it is. You can be positive and acknowledge the limits of a player/plan at the same time.

Saying everything is fine when it isn't is worse. Acknowledge the problem.

I guess it depends what you compare the move to whether it is considered a success.
If he outperforms his averages from last year?
If we make the playoffs?
If he outperforms other players in his salary range? (to be fair he ranks 38th in salary this season, which was lower than I expected)
If the team is more watchable and get national attention?
If he helps others get better?


What is a failure?
If we don't pick top 3?
If we get the 10th seed?
If he gets injured?

[SWedd523]

I think it's fairly obvious no?

He's a vet on probably his last big deal that was given a "final piece" type of contract typically seen when adding a high level supporting player to a team looking to cash in for a deep playoff run

Every year they're not generally an East Semi-final (+) team, its a bad year

[Radu_Hornets]

I think it's fairly obvious no?

He's a vet on probably his last big deal that was given a "final piece" type of contract typically seen when adding a high level supporting player to a team looking to cash in for a deep playoff run

Every year they're not generally an East Semi-final (+) team, its a bad year

Just realized Cody is the last player from your signature who is still on the team.

[BeesWax]

I don't know why yal say "wait and see" like the roof on this type of move is obvious from the moment its announced

There is no realistic scenario where this morphs into some amazing move man. Just call it like it is. You can be positive and acknowledge the limits of a player/plan at the same time.

Saying everything is fine when it isn't is worse. Acknowledge the problem.

I guess it depends what you compare the move to whether it is considered a success.
If he outperforms his averages from last year?
If we make the playoffs?
If he outperforms other players in his salary range? (to be fair he ranks 38th in salary this season, which was lower than I expected)
If the team is more watchable and get national attention?
If he helps others get better?


What is a failure?
If we don't pick top 3?
If we get the 10th seed?
If he gets injured?

The failure thing is easy to answer. With this signing if we don't make it out of the first round of the playoffs this year this was a terrible move. If we are not at the spot where we are competing for the eastern conference finals in year three of this then this was a dumb move. The goal of the team should be to build a sustained winning squad and this reeks of failure to do so.

The only way I would consider this an OK move is if somehow we get a top 3 pick in the next draft and pick a star to accompany Ball and then manage to swing Rosier into a solid complementary piece to Ball and whomever we drafted.

The fact is Hayward is costing us almost $40 million the next three years so he better make the all star game every year and lead us on good playoff runs in order to live up to his cost.

[BlackOutBuzz]

Ainge on Hayward:

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[JMAC3]

I think it's fairly obvious no?

He's a vet on probably his last big deal that was given a "final piece" type of contract typically seen when adding a high level supporting player to a team looking to cash in for a deep playoff run

Every year they're not generally an East Semi-final (+) team, its a bad year

He is 38th highest paid player in the League. That will only continue to go down over the next couple years.

I think if we make playoffs and win a game or 2 with a really young roster then it was a success this year. Keep building and eventually win a couple playoff series over next 3 years would be fun. Keep developing the young guys and maybe become a top 3-4 team in the East.

Titles are definitely longterm goal, but let's be honest that is a lofty goal for any plan in the next 4 years.

[Chapelchilla]

I would much rather be paying Hayward 30 a year then paying Kemba 35, especially when -
https://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/260656/Kemba-Walker-Receives-Stem-Cell-Injection-In-Knee-Out-Until-January

I think we made a good move for the franchise in signing Hayward. We badly needed a veteran leader for the young talent we have, he is a good facilitator, a guy who can knock down the big 3 and be the marketable face of the franchise to sell tickets and jerseys until Lamelo or PJ or whoever is ready for the role. We did not need to be terrible for Ball's first few years and have him want out immediately. Or try learning the pro game from other 20 year olds.
Yeah, it would be great to have him for 25 or so but that wasn't gonna happen. His value is higher then that. Another lottery pick would be nice too but the Kings and Knicks may disagree with that route to success. We have young talent, Mitch has been finding value all over the board and I have high hopes for Carey and Riller making the rotation shortly. Getting 2 more second round picks is not nothing. It's 2 more chances at a Devonte or Cody.
Lastly, if we are ever going to get a bigger star in here via FA, the situation has to be attractive. It has not been. If Ball is good we have the potential for a strong base, a flashy PG who loves to pass?, Hayward fits as an unselfish second banana, with PJ, Devonte, Carey, Miles, Monk we have 5 more chances at good quality starters or even a borderline star so while the young guys develop into real pro's, we can learn how to win more games then we lose. We benefit from having a guy like Hayward to help with that process and be respectable. That's important. Getting on TV is important to the overall situation too. We should start to get some games on next year. Then maybe in 2 or 3 years we are able to land the final marquee piece and even hit on another gem of a draft piece. The Lakers are gonna win the next 2 titles anyway, lol. It is written....
MJ wanting to win and actually spending some money isn't all bad as a sign of things to come. I think it sets us up for future success and even going into the cap when it's time in a 2 or 3 seasons. I am not going to be negative and condemn the man or our team until we see how the pieces fit. Hayward certainly fits a team need and is a likeable guy with a track record of success. If healthy, his contract is fine. Let's see how the team looks in 2022-3, if we are not ready to win 50 then, well we may have screwed up. I think 32-38 wins this year and a lottery ticket is on track and the right goal. Hopefully we can hit 45 wins in 2021 and sort out who we keep of the young core. All while playing some entertaining basketball and turning the Hive into a fun place to be and not the demoralized ghost town it was last year.

I think we can do it.

[yosemiteben]

Media day dumps from Twitter:

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[Chapelchilla]

We've taken a major step in our identity... teams that win in this league are versatile, have multiple play-makers on the floor, two-way players. We have more versatility, we have length, high IQ." - JB
Sam Perley
@sam_perley
·
4h
JB says a player of
@gordonhayward
's caliber and experience will be a major benefit to the team's younger core in seeing how he practices, prepares and carries himself on a day-to-day basis
Sam Perley
@sam_perley
·
4h
also mentions the
@Hornets
have multiple playmakers with size now (Hayward, Ball, Washington, Bridges, etc); finishing at the rim should improve and increase open 3P attempts as well

These 3 quotes from Borrego are exactly what I was talking about above. We may try to be fan "experts" on here but Borrego is professional in his field. I think he is absolutely correct and the naysayers will be wondering why we aren't so terrible after all, lol. Meanwhile, the team will play exciting modern basketball....