2023 NBA Draft Thread

[LofJ]

If Black was a great shooter, he'd have an argument, but I don't see how you take him over a Thompson twin

I'm just not buying that their play will translate from OTE to the NBA. It's easy to look good when you're playing high school kids as a 20 year old. Yes, they are talented high schoolers, but the age gap does make a difference. They're bad shooters against high school defenders, imagine how they will look in the NBA. They're worth a gamble later in the lottery, but if I was a GM I wouldn't use a top 5 pick to draft them.

Anthony Black is also a year younger than them and shut down a high level NBA prospect while playing injured. He has also demonstrated an elite skill in getting to the free throw line against good competition. If he could shoot he'd be the clear cut number 2 prospect in this draft.

[JMAC3]

If Black was a great shooter, he'd have an argument, but I don't see how you take him over a Thompson twin

I'm just not buying that their play will translate from OTE to the NBA. It's easy to look good when you're playing high school kids as a 20 year old. Yes, they are talented high schoolers, but the age gap does make a difference. They're bad shooters against high school defenders, imagine how they will look in the NBA. They're worth a gamble later in the lottery, but if I was a GM I wouldn't use a top 5 pick to draft them.

Anthony Black is also a year younger than them and shut down a high level NBA prospect while playing injured. He has also demonstrated an elite skill in getting to the free throw line against good competition. If he could shoot he'd be the clear cut number 2 prospect in this draft.

You do realize that Dwight, Tmac, Kobe, Garnett etc etc all were playing against high school kids and it translated to the NBA? In fact the high school teams they played against were way worse than OTE. OTE basically is comprised of guys that would be top 10 players in their state. So every game is like playing against a state championship level of team. Vs traditional high school go watch Zion highlights and he was playing against 5'10'' kids that couldn't even touch the backboard.

They also played overseas pro teams, played in the TBT, scrimmage vs pro players... etc

The OTE skill development has blown away both NBA and NCAA scouts.

[JMAC3]

If Black was a great shooter, he'd have an argument, but I don't see how you take him over a Thompson twin

I'm just not buying that their play will translate from OTE to the NBA. It's easy to look good when you're playing high school kids as a 20 year old. Yes, they are talented high schoolers, but the age gap does make a difference. They're bad shooters against high school defenders, imagine how they will look in the NBA. They're worth a gamble later in the lottery, but if I was a GM I wouldn't use a top 5 pick to draft them.

Anthony Black is also a year younger than them and shut down a high level NBA prospect while playing injured. He has also demonstrated an elite skill in getting to the free throw line against good competition. If he could shoot he'd be the clear cut number 2 prospect in this draft.

You do realize that Dwight, Tmac, Kobe, Garnett etc etc all were playing against high school kids and it translated to the NBA? In fact the high school teams they played against were way worse than OTE. OTE basically is comprised of guys that would be top 10 players in their state. So every game is like playing against a state championship level of team. Vs traditional high school go watch Zion highlights and he was playing against 5'10'' kids that couldn't even touch the backboard.

They also played overseas pro teams, played in the TBT, scrimmage vs pro players... etc

The OTE skill development has blown away both NBA and NCAA scouts.

They have been dominating competition the last three years. They won a florida state championship as 18 year olds, were dominating the OTE last year vs other 18-19 year olds. It wasn't until this year that the league got super young (which was because the players agreed to not get paid and maintain college eligibility).

I would be much more worried if they didn't have such a high pedigree and a history of winning before OTE. It is not like they turned down scholarships to UNC Greensboro to play in OTE and weren't top prospects before. They have been top pro prospects way before OTE with bigtime college offers.

[UNCNYC]

I was high on Taylor Hendricks for about a week then backed off but now I am starting to see why we should take him at 4 if Miller is gone because there are so many other players that can just fall to us with the other pick. I like the Hendricks pick because there are quite a few players at the other positions later on.

PICK 1 - Taylor Hendricks

PICK 2 - Nikola Durisic, Jalen Wilson, Colby Jones, Jordan Miller,

PICK 3 - Azuolas Tubelis, Reese Beekman, Roko Prkacin,

PICK 4 - Craig Porter JR, Agustin UBAL, Kevin McCullar,

[LofJ]

I'm just not buying that their play will translate from OTE to the NBA. It's easy to look good when you're playing high school kids as a 20 year old. Yes, they are talented high schoolers, but the age gap does make a difference. They're bad shooters against high school defenders, imagine how they will look in the NBA. They're worth a gamble later in the lottery, but if I was a GM I wouldn't use a top 5 pick to draft them.

Anthony Black is also a year younger than them and shut down a high level NBA prospect while playing injured. He has also demonstrated an elite skill in getting to the free throw line against good competition. If he could shoot he'd be the clear cut number 2 prospect in this draft.

You do realize that Dwight, Tmac, Kobe, Garnett etc etc all were playing against high school kids and it translated to the NBA? In fact the high school teams they played against were way worse than OTE. OTE basically is comprised of guys that would be top 10 players in their state. So every game is like playing against a state championship level of team. Vs traditional high school go watch Zion highlights and he was playing against 5'10'' kids that couldn't even touch the backboard.

They also played overseas pro teams, played in the TBT, scrimmage vs pro players... etc

The OTE skill development has blown away both NBA and NCAA scouts.

They have been dominating competition the last three years. They won a florida state championship as 18 year olds, were dominating the OTE last year vs other 18-19 year olds. It wasn't until this year that the league got super young (which was because the players agreed to not get paid and maintain college eligibility).

I would be much more worried if they didn't have such a high pedigree and a history of winning before OTE. It is not like they turned down scholarships to UNC Greensboro to play in OTE and weren't top prospects before. They have been top pro prospects way before OTE with bigtime college offers.

I don't think the Thompson twins are undraftable scrubs. I'm just not comfortable taking guys high in the draft based primarily on their athletic ability. More often than not those guys flame out of the league, while less flashy but highly skilled players flourish. It's why players like Booker, Haliburton, Kessler, Jalen Williams, etc. get overlooked while players like Josh Jackson, Wiseman, Bagley, etc. get picked ahead of them. If they have Jimmy Butler or Westbrook level grit rush to the podium to select them, but otherwise I'd rather bet on skill over athleticism.

[JMAC3]

Josh Jackson, Wiseman and Bagley are guys that had major questions on 1. BBIQ and 2. How they fit the NBA game.

You should never ever take a rim running center in the top 5. You can find that player in the teens.

I know a guy that works for the Hornets and does all the background work on prospects. We aren't super close by any means, but he has told me a few stories about guys. He said Josh Jackson wasn't even on their board because of character concerns.

[LofJ]

Josh Jackson, Wiseman and Bagley are guys that had major questions on 1. BBIQ and 2. How they fit the NBA game.

You should never ever take a rim running center in the top 5. You can find that player in the teens.

I know a guy that works for the Hornets and does all the background work on prospects. We aren't super close by any means, but he has told me a few stories about guys. He said Josh Jackson wasn't even on their board because of character concerns.

That's interesting to hear. I know almost everyone is jaded about this team, but the scouting department under Kupchak has been a bright spot. The 2021 draft was rough, but they've otherwise consistently hit on guys that belong in the league.

The draft is the one area I'm willing to give this team some benefit of the doubt. If they bet on one of the Thompson twins I will be a believer until proven otherwise.

[JMAC3]

I said this on Draft board, but it is not hard for me to see

Amen putting up 14/6/6 while having the tools to be a good defender as a rookie. Even if his shooting struggles I think he has a lot of Cody Martin in him where you just keep wanting to find ways to keep him on the court.

Same with Ausar could see him putting 12/6/4 as a rookie while being a good defender. Maybe they aren't labeled superstars day 1, but they have the size and athletic profile that could be elite defenders in the playoffs. Something we lack right now.

[SWedd523]

If Black was a great shooter, he'd have an argument, but I don't see how you take him over a Thompson twin

I'm just not buying that their play will translate from OTE to the NBA. It's easy to look good when you're playing high school kids as a 20 year old. Yes, they are talented high schoolers, but the age gap does make a difference. They're bad shooters against high school defenders, imagine how they will look in the NBA. They're worth a gamble later in the lottery, but if I was a GM I wouldn't use a top 5 pick to draft them.

Anthony Black is also a year younger than them and shut down a high level NBA prospect while playing injured. He has also demonstrated an elite skill in getting to the free throw line against good competition. If he could shoot he'd be the clear cut number 2 prospect in this draft.

He can't shoot though

Neither can the Thompsons but at least they're going to be excellent athletes.

Black is capped at "support player" due to his physical deficiencies. Thompsons have shown less skill maybe but they're going to have a higher ceiling

[JMAC3]

I actually like my Caris Levert comp for Black, but Caris was actually a better shooter in college than Black.

[Snidely FC]

For anyone who wants to learn a little more about the Thompson Twins
https://www.theringer.com/nba-draft/2023/3/28/23657469/amen-ausar-thompson-twins-2023-nba-draft-overtime-elite

[-Ian-]

I know a guy that works for the Hornets and does all the background work on prospects. We aren't super close by any means, but he has told me a few stories about guys. He said Josh Jackson wasn't even on their board because of character concerns.

How long has he been working for the Hornets? I'm curious how much emphasis Mitch and co. put on character because Rich Cho used to always say that they look at prospects with high character, not just talent.

[Braggins]

Donovan is 10x the shooter that Scoot is, Scoot shoots like 2.5 threes per game total. Mitchell shoots 9.4 threes per game.

At 19 years old Donovan Mitchell shot 25% from the college 3pt line. As a 20 year old he shot 35% from the college 3pt line. Scoot shot 32% from the NBA line as a 19 year old. Mitchell's attempts were higher than Scoots his sophomore year, but he was also a year older and shooting from a shorter line.

I actually like my Caris Levert comp for Black, but Caris was actually a better shooter in college than Black.

This comparison is hilariously bad. Probably the worse AB comp ive seen by far.

[JMAC3]

I know a guy that works for the Hornets and does all the background work on prospects. We aren't super close by any means, but he has told me a few stories about guys. He said Josh Jackson wasn't even on their board because of character concerns.

How long has he been working for the Hornets? I'm curious how much emphasis Mitch and co. put on character because Rich Cho used to always say that they look at prospects with high character, not just talent.

He has been around since Cho.

[JMAC3]

Donovan is 10x the shooter that Scoot is, Scoot shoots like 2.5 threes per game total. Mitchell shoots 9.4 threes per game.

At 19 years old Donovan Mitchell shot 25% from the college 3pt line. As a 20 year old he shot 35% from the college 3pt line. Scoot shot 32% from the NBA line as a 19 year old. Mitchell's attempts were higher than Scoots his sophomore year, but he was also a year older and shooting from a shorter line.

I actually like my Caris Levert comp for Black, but Caris was actually a better shooter in college than Black.

This comparison is hilariously bad. Probably the worse AB comp ive seen by far.

Levert is 6-6 meh athlete with meh shooting. Does a bit of everything in terms of playmaking, rebounding etc. Secondary ball handler who can play 1-3 in a pinch... what part of that isn't AB?

Levert has multiple seasons scoring 17+ and giving 4+ helpers. Are you expecting Black to be considerably better than that?

In terms of the Donovan Mitchell stuff, congrats. Does that mean every prospect who struggles shooting has Mitchell upside? Donovan shot 7 threes per game as a rookie. Are you expecting Scoot to do that? He also shot 6.6 threes per game as a sophomore. Scoot is nowhere near that level of volume outside shooter.

[Braggins]

If Black was a great shooter, he'd have an argument, but I don't see how you take him over a Thompson twin

AB is a year younger and his general box score 3pt/free throw shooting numbers are about the same as Ausars and significantly better than Amens.

A few weeks before the end of the OTE season someone posted a synergy breakdown of shooting efficiency by area and broken down between half court and transition. Basically, the OTE (because its a crap league) has a significantly higher percentage of transition possessions vs half court compared to college and the numbers made it look like their efficiency numbers were being propped up by their high efficiency/effectiveness in transition possessions.

If I remember correctly, AB had better half court efficiency than both twins in basically every area. Despite the super freak athleticism of the Twins, Amen was shooting about the same or worse (I want to say it was a bit worse) on halfcourt layups than AB. Ausar at the time was literally shooting like 39% on halfcourt layup attempts, which is alarming for guys that are super athletes playing down in competition level.

Beyond that, AB has actually shown at a year younger age that he can be highly effective against better competition and in a much more structured environment, whereas with the Twins there isn't much evidence of them being effective against better competition. The Twins are being projected more on pure athletic upside than anything.

The twins have spent their two seasons since high school (where neither was ranked top 20 in their class) playing in a terrible high school level competition league and their numbers in that league haven't really been that eye popping considering the environment. 15 year old Cam Boozer played some games against one of the best OTE teams and made a complete mockery of them.

I didn't really want to dive into this before I saw the updated synergy shooting numbers because I last saw them posted before the OTE playoffs and the Twins did well in the playoffs, but I don't think it would have been enough games to drastically change the numbers.

[SWedd523]

Is there any star player in the league with a similar physical makeup to AB?

[Braggins]

Levert is 6-6 meh athlete with meh shooting. Does a bit of everything in terms of playmaking, rebounding etc. Secondary ball handler who can play 1-3 in a pinch... what part of that isn't AB?

lol. I don't waste time arguing with you, but if you want some feedback on this comparison you can post it in the Draft forum and see what they think.

[LofJ]

Is there any star player in the league with a similar physical makeup to AB?

As far as athleticism/size AB is comparable to Doncic, Cade Cunningham, Harden, Giddey, and LaMelo/Hayward.

[Braggins]

Is there any star player in the league with a similar physical makeup to AB?

As far as athleticism/size AB is comparable to Doncic, Cade Cunningham, Harden, Giddey, and LaMelo/Hayward.

Black is more athletic than Doncic, Cade and Giddey. Harden and LaMelo are harder comparisons because their profiles are a bit different, but overall proably aren't too far off.

AB is stronger and moves much better laterally than LaMelo, but LaMelo might be a bit faster in the open court. AB is bouncier. Harden is kind of hard to compare to anyone lol.