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2023 NBA Draft Thread

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Re: 2023 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#861 » by LofJ » Wed Mar 29, 2023 8:46 pm

Braggins wrote:
JMAC3 wrote:
Levert is 6-6 meh athlete with meh shooting. Does a bit of everything in terms of playmaking, rebounding etc. Secondary ball handler who can play 1-3 in a pinch... what part of that isn't AB?

lol. I don't waste time arguing with you, but if you want some feedback on this comparison you can post it in the Draft forum and see what they think.


An Anthony Black versus the Thompson twins comparison thread would probably be a pretty good discussion.

The one last year between Duren and Mark was pretty good. I think I and one other poster were the only ones trying to plug Walker Kessler into the discussion. What a great class of big men though, damn good in fact.
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Re: 2023 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#862 » by JMAC3 » Wed Mar 29, 2023 8:48 pm

Braggins wrote:
JMAC3 wrote:
Levert is 6-6 meh athlete with meh shooting. Does a bit of everything in terms of playmaking, rebounding etc. Secondary ball handler who can play 1-3 in a pinch... what part of that isn't AB?

lol. I don't waste time arguing with you, but if you want some feedback on this comparison you can post it in the Draft forum and see what they think.


Pretty dismissive response from you here. Levert sophomore stats are pretty similar to ABs.

Black - 12.8 ppg, 5.1 reb, 3.9 assists 30% from deep on 2.6 attempts. 5.3 fta on 70%
Levert - 12.9 ppg, 4.3 reb, 2.9 assists 40% from deep on 4 attempts. 3.6 fta on 78%

And before you claim Levert wasn't good as a Freshman nonsense.... he played on a team full of pros ala Stauskas, Burke, Hardaway, Glen Robinson and McGary who all but one went first round.

Even his soph year he played with Stauskas, Robinson and McGary. Those Michigan teams were stacked and made deep runs with Lost in champ and then lost final 4.

And again Levert has 3 years in the league putting up over 17 ppg. Idk why that is a disrespectful comp.
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Re: 2023 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#863 » by JMAC3 » Wed Mar 29, 2023 8:49 pm

LofJ wrote:
SWedd523 wrote:Is there any star player in the league with a similar physical makeup to AB?


As far as athleticism/size AB is comparable to Doncic, Cade Cunningham, Harden, Giddey, and LaMelo/Hayward.


Yeah I wouldn't call any of these guys + athleticism. AB is an average athlete.
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Re: 2023 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#864 » by LofJ » Wed Mar 29, 2023 9:04 pm

JMAC3 wrote:
LofJ wrote:
SWedd523 wrote:Is there any star player in the league with a similar physical makeup to AB?


As far as athleticism/size AB is comparable to Doncic, Cade Cunningham, Harden, Giddey, and LaMelo/Hayward.


Yeah I wouldn't call any of these guys + athleticism. AB is an average athlete.


I'd agree with that, it also goes to show that athleticism is overrated. Size and skill are more important. Giannis wouldn't be the dominant, perennial MVP candidate he is without it, so I'm not saying it's unimportant (same for Jordan, Lebron, Shaq, Zion, etc.). But those guys are outliers that don't come around often. The Thompson twins aren't nuclear, dominant athletes where they can just physically impose their will regardless of their skill level.

If either of them have a Jimmy Butler like killer mentality in them though, that combined with their athleticism is a bet worth making. However, if they're mental midgets like Ben Simmons, no thanks.
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Re: 2023 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#865 » by Braggins » Wed Mar 29, 2023 9:06 pm

Anthony Black is not an average athlete or athletically limited.

His physical tools are one of his biggest selling points. Hes not elite athletically and not someone I would use words like great, fantastic, excellent, special, etc, to describe his athleticism. Above average, above average to good range, pretty good, etc, are the way I would describe it. Hes not someone who will dominate with athleticism, but its good enough to be a minor strength, which is amplified by his positional size.

Not posting anything else on the matter for now.
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Re: 2023 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#866 » by Braggins » Wed Mar 29, 2023 9:29 pm

LofJ wrote:An Anthony Black versus the Thompson twins comparison thread would probably be a pretty good discussion.

Its hard to discuss the Twins. They obviously have tantalizing physical tools, but you have to project so much for them because of the competition level and not especially dominant production. There also seems to be some troubling red flags, which are scarier on guys you have to project that much.

I am biased a bit by being more risk averse than some and I am also viewing this draft through a very Hornets specific lens. I don't think the Hornets can afford to completely blow another draft pick chasing athletic upside. It makes it very difficult for me to be interested in the twins as long as there are other prospects on the board that I feel good about. Also, we fans don't have nearly as much info on the guys personally to go off and dont see private workouts and such. Some of the things the Thompsons twins will need to do well at to solidify their position are things we just aren't going to have any good info about, so I'm admittedly working with an incomplete picture. Fwiw, though, I do worry about this being a team that is easily fooled by guys who look great in workouts, which is how I think the Bouk/Kai picks happened. Besides shooting, the Twins are going to look surreal on any empty court in private workouts.

I'm not as down on the 2-10 range in this draft as a lot of people, so I don't feel especially inclined to roll the dice on the Twins. If they get the 2nd pick, I think they should go with Scoot as of now, but would be cool with Miller. If they get 3rd, they should probably go Miller. If they are 4th, then I am having a hell of a discussion between Black, Hendricks, Dick, Walker, Whitmore, and Wallace. I very slightly lean AB right now, but I like the group and see arguments for all of them.
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Re: 2023 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#867 » by Benjamin Linus » Wed Mar 29, 2023 11:59 pm

How does Black compare to Lonzo? I've yet to do a deep dive on these guys but that's kinda how I've viewed him. Like Lonzo with less shooting but more crafty, more playmaking
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Re: 2023 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#868 » by Braggins » Thu Mar 30, 2023 12:20 am

Benjamin Linus wrote:How does Black compare to Lonzo? I've yet to do a deep dive on these guys but that's kinda how I've viewed him. Like Lonzo with less shooting but more crafty, more playmaking

Lonzo was a better shooter. Lonzo might be a better playmaker tbh. Lonzo is another guy like Giddey that is a really high level passer but doesn't create passing opportunities for himself so his playmaking gets underrated (Lonzo's passing highlight reel in college was insane). AB is stronger and has a better first step. Lonzo struggled to put pressure on the rim even in college didn't draw free throws at a very good rate.

I think AB is better at attacking the rim and self creation, which could give him more on-ball potential to play like a true lead guard than Lonzo, but Lonzo is a better shooter and can function well as a hybrid PG/3&D player. Love the defense with both of them.
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Re: 2023 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#869 » by wilson115 » Thu Mar 30, 2023 3:28 am

How does Black compare to LaMelo? The other tall ballhandlers picked inside the top 5 since LaMelo? Odds Black goes just as early, is he that much more valuable than Giddey and Dyson Daniels relative to his draft class?

2020
3. L. Ball

2021
1. C. Cunningham
4. S. Barnes
6. J. Giddey

2022
8. D. Daniels

Not worried about picking 1-3 with B. Miller (at worst, unless something really bad turns up) still on the board. Picking #4, though....
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Re: 2023 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#870 » by wilson115 » Thu Mar 30, 2023 5:37 am

How about Amen Thompson, how does he compare to Shaedon Sharpe? "Elite athlete" with zero college games to his name and still got picked just outside the top 5. I know Sharpe rated higher going into Kentucky, but Amen feels more hyped heading into the draft.



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Re: 2023 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#871 » by LofJ » Thu Mar 30, 2023 1:51 pm

If the team is ever going to win the lottery this is the year.

We'll probably pick 6th though, that's what I'm expecting. It's the most likeliest draft position going by the odds.
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Re: 2023 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#872 » by JMAC3 » Thu Mar 30, 2023 8:33 pm

Braggins wrote:
SWedd523 wrote:If Black was a great shooter, he'd have an argument, but I don't see how you take him over a Thompson twin

AB is a year younger and his general box score 3pt/free throw shooting numbers are about the same as Ausars and significantly better than Amens.

A few weeks before the end of the OTE season someone posted a synergy breakdown of shooting efficiency by area and broken down between half court and transition. Basically, the OTE (because its a crap league) has a significantly higher percentage of transition possessions vs half court compared to college and the numbers made it look like their efficiency numbers were being propped up by their high efficiency/effectiveness in transition possessions.

If I remember correctly, AB had better half court efficiency than both twins in basically every area. Despite the super freak athleticism of the Twins, Amen was shooting about the same or worse (I want to say it was a bit worse) on halfcourt layups than AB. Ausar at the time was literally shooting like 39% on halfcourt layup attempts, which is alarming for guys that are super athletes playing down in competition level.

Beyond that, AB has actually shown at a year younger age that he can be highly effective against better competition and in a much more structured environment, whereas with the Twins there isn't much evidence of them being effective against better competition. The Twins are being projected more on pure athletic upside than anything.

The twins have spent their two seasons since high school (where neither was ranked top 20 in their class) playing in a terrible high school level competition league and their numbers in that league haven't really been that eye popping considering the environment. 15 year old Cam Boozer played some games against one of the best OTE teams and made a complete mockery of them.

I didn't really want to dive into this before I saw the updated synergy shooting numbers because I last saw them posted before the OTE playoffs and the Twins did well in the playoffs, but I don't think it would have been enough games to drastically change the numbers.


I would really like to see the breakdown of finishing at the rim. Feels pretty impossible for someone to shoot 66% from 2 in the regular season. Then be told he can't shoot or finish. That doesn't add up.
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Re: 2023 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#873 » by Braggins » Fri Mar 31, 2023 6:21 am

This is what I was referring to. The data only includes 14 of the 21 total OTE games they played between regular season and playoffs. It doesn't include any of the playoff games.

Read on Twitter


At the time, Amen was 16/40 (40%) on halfcourt layup attempts and 27/52 (51.9%) on overall halfcourt rim finishing with 11 dunks in the halfcourt, but had 31 transition dunks and was at nearly 90% (53/59) on overall transition rim finishing, which boosted his overall rim finishing to 72.1%.

Ausar was 6/23 (26.1%) on halfcourt layups and 11/28 (39.3%) on halfcourt rim finishing and only had 5 halfcourt dunks. He had 21 transition dunks and was 42/56 (75%) in transition rim finishing, which boosted his overall rim finishing to 63.1%.

Black was at 27/52 (51.9%) on halfcourt layups and 31/57 (54.4%) on overall halfcourt rim finishing with 4 halfcourt dunks. He had 10 transition dunks and was 19/27 (70.4%) transition rim finishing, which put his overall rim finishing at 59.5%. His sample size was 22 games vs 14 for the twins.

According to the Box and Ones scouting report, Amen finished the season at 50% on halfcourt layups and 59.2% on halfcourt rim finishing in 21 games, which is an improvement and not bad in general, but still pretty similar to where Black was after 22 games and not really good given that Amen is 20 already, playing down in age and competition level, and is a super freak athlete.

Ausar finished the season at 40.5% for halfcourt layups and 51.1% at halfcourt rim finishing.

I'm not sure what Blacks updated halfcourt finishing numbers look like, but his overall 2pt% was 50.7% at the time the first sample was posted and he finished at 51.3% for the season, so it seems like his numbers might have been fairly stable.

full season halfcourt numbers for the twins.
Spoiler:
Image

Spoiler:
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Outside of the paint both twins halfcourt jump shooting and overall halfcourt fg% were bad and didn't improve much in the final numbers.

Twins earlier half court efficiency sample
Spoiler:
Read on Twitter

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Amen was at 28.8% for jump shots, 24.3% on catch & shoot, 33.3% on dribble jumpers, and 39.6% on all halfcourt field goal attempts. He finished the season at 28.7% on jump shots, 27.8% on c&s, 29.6% on dribble jumpers, and 40.4% on all halfcourt field goal attempts.

Ausar was at 30.7% on jump shots, 28.2% on catch & shoot, 33.3% on dribble jumpers, and 34.4% on all halfcourt field goals. He finished the season at 31.6% on jump shots, 32.5% c&s, 30.4% on dribble jumpers, and 36.7% on all halfcourt attempts.

The Thompson twins both saw big declines in their 2pt% in the playoff games that werent included in the earlier sample (66% to 52% for Amen and 56% to 50% for Ausar), despite their overall halfcourt numbers going up, which seems like it suggests that they were probably getting significantly fewer transition opportunities in the playoffs. They did seem to improve their halfcourt numbers inside the arc in the playoffs and Ausar's overall 3pt% went up quite a bit, so thats something, but the overall season sample still makes it seem like they feasted in transition against overmatched OTE opponents, but mostly were bad when they had to play halfcourt basketball.

The twins deserve credit for potentially being outlier transition threats, which makes sense with their athleticism, but they simply aren't going to be able to play nearly as high a ratio of transition vs halfcourt possessions when they play at levels higher than OTE. They'll have more spacing in the halfcourt in the NBA, but they don't currently compare all that well in the halfcourt to many NCAA prospects that are dealing with similar spacing issues and playing against better competition.
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Re: 2023 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#874 » by JDR720 » Fri Mar 31, 2023 6:47 am

From doing about 3 minutes of research on Black, I think he is like MCW. Similar size, poor shooter, combo guard etc.
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Re: 2023 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#875 » by JMAC3 » Fri Mar 31, 2023 7:36 pm

Braggins wrote:
Read on Twitter


At the time, Amen was 16/40 (40%) on halfcourt layup attempts and 27/52 (51.9%) on overall halfcourt rim finishing with 11 dunks in the halfcourt, but had 31 transition dunks and was at nearly 90% (53/59) on overall transition rim finishing, which boosted his overall rim finishing to 72.1%.


I think there is a lot of good data here, interesting to look at some of the dunk data for other prospects. Was having a hard time finding any of that.

Here are my general thoughts though.
1. Halfcourt layups vs dunks seems kind of weird to separate those out and punish a guy for layup %. Assuming the dunks are the easiest layup opportunities, so you remove those and that leaves the tougher opportunities left for the most part. A guy who does layups all the time will have the easy layups in layups catalog whereas dunker won't. Seems like it could be misleading a bit.

I would prefer to just look at halfcourt finishing instead to get a clearer picture in this instance.

2. Not to contradict myself, but I do like when a guy has a lot of dunks. I think it is a good indicator of athleticism for the most part whether half court or open court. You still have to be athletic to consistently put yourself in open court easy opportunities. The stats do back up eye test that Whitmore, Thompson Twins and Jaden Ivey are all a tier above most guys.

3. Few things that caught my attention. The OTE site only has Amen with 30 dunks for the regular season and a few more in playoffs. Yet see 42 on sheet for a supposedly even missing reg season games, so wonder if they are looking at other games outside of official OTE season. Also, halfcourt dunks vs all dunks seems a bit shiesty in how they determine them. The fact Lively has 13 non-halfcourt dunks seems high to me. Seems like they must be counting dunks where the defense is mostly back but not completely settled as non-halfcourt dunks.

4. I would expect more half court dunks for Amen and Ausar playing in the NBA. The game is just more open when it comes to bodies in the paint. OTE the spacing in general was pretty bad and most teams had multiple defenders with guys lurking around the rim. That and less eyes on them in general. Amen for instance I would expect to get quite a few easy half court dunks playing with LaMelo's passing potentially.
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Re: 2023 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#876 » by JMAC3 » Fri Mar 31, 2023 7:53 pm

Read on Twitter


Looks like this is an updated version.
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Re: 2023 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#877 » by UNCNYC » Tue Apr 4, 2023 2:08 am

My guy Andre Jackson putting on a show for UCONN. I had him rated in the top 5 at one point this year. Thats why I hate stats cuz you look in the box score and see none of that

I think we need to consider Sensebaugh and Jalen Hook Schifino for the number one pick if Miller is gone
UPDATED `10-22-2025



These are who I want with our picks in order



THEM - Michael Jordan, Scottie Pippen

UNCNYC - Arthur Agee, William Gates
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Re: 2023 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#878 » by JMAC3 » Tue Apr 4, 2023 2:16 am

UNCNYC wrote:My guy Andre Jackson putting on a show for UCONN. I had him rated in the top 5 at one point this year. Thats why I hate stats cuz you look in the box score and see none of that

I think we need to consider Sensebaugh and Jalen Hook Schifino for the number one pick if Miller is gone


Love ya man, but you have had everyone and their mother inside the top 5 at some point lol
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Re: 2023 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#879 » by UNCNYC » Tue Apr 4, 2023 2:24 am

JMAC3 wrote:
UNCNYC wrote:My guy Andre Jackson putting on a show for UCONN. I had him rated in the top 5 at one point this year. Thats why I hate stats cuz you look in the box score and see none of that

I think we need to consider Sensebaugh and Jalen Hook Schifino for the number one pick if Miller is gone


Love ya man, but you have had everyone and their mother inside the top 5 at some point lol


awww thanks, everyone except VW lmaoooooooooo
UPDATED `10-22-2025



These are who I want with our picks in order



THEM - Michael Jordan, Scottie Pippen

UNCNYC - Arthur Agee, William Gates
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Re: 2023 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#880 » by UNCNYC » Tue Apr 4, 2023 3:58 am

Andre Jackson is the only player who can dominate a game and have a stat line of

1-3 shooting, 3 pts / 3 reb / 6 ass / 2 stl

lmaooo

Reason why I stopped talking about him is just because of that. You forget how good he is until you see him again.
UPDATED `10-22-2025



These are who I want with our picks in order



THEM - Michael Jordan, Scottie Pippen

UNCNYC - Arthur Agee, William Gates

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