Not In The Face - The Jeremy Lin Thread 3 + 1

[steady]

Courtney Lee's salary 2015-2016 was only $5.675 mill.

That's why it surprised me his cap hold is $10.8 mill - it must have something on do with how his trade transaction was structured.

[bws94]

It's an apples to oranges comparison without considering demand and replacement costs.

Marvin's offensive value is predominantly C&S from the PF position....a low supply position but a high demand skill for all 5 positions, particularly in the front court. There just aren't enough good shooters who are at minimum average defenders.

Lin's value is as a higher usage point guard....the highest supply position (by a mile) with an inherently capped demand for his skill. Whereas you'd be hard pressed finding 15 players like Marvin, there are 50+ that provide at minimum 95% of Lin's production.

Life is about timing. Lin's production is based on the timing of it, not the numbers in it.

[tonman]

It's an apples to oranges comparison without considering demand and replacement costs.

Marvin's offensive value is predominantly C&S from the PF position....a low supply position but a high demand skill for all 5 positions, particularly in the front court. There just aren't enough good shooters who are at minimum average defenders.

Lin's value is as a higher usage point guard....the highest supply position (by a mile) with an inherently capped demand for his skill. Whereas you'd be hard pressed finding 15 players like Marvin, there are 50+ that provide at minimum 95% of Lin's production.

Over exaggerating as Lin has already shown what his ceiling is. Doesn't mean that a team will let him go to that point but seriously do 50+ point guards out there can play shooting guard as well as run a team and have potential to drop 20 points in any game.

I am not trying to make Lin out to a star player but borderline starter means 20 to 40 range among point guards. And just think I really like Marvin and he's a Tar Heel but he was looked as not living up to his potential and then a change in hornet offensive approach and all of a sudden he's in demand. There's more to it for both Marvin and lin. Bigs will always cost you more but you have to think flexibility. If you hold on to Lee as backup shooting guard then you need a backup point. You keep Lin and you don't really need a high priced guard. You could keep Daniels and Jorge or Harrison and along with Lamb at the 2/3.

Marvin is a great stretch 4 but he can't play center and he has trouble playing the three so you are tied to Marvin and one position. Yes he is versatile in that position but you still have to fill out your roster needs.

[steady]

It's an apples to oranges comparison without considering demand and replacement costs.

Marvin's offensive value is predominantly C&S from the PF position....a low supply position but a high demand skill for all 5 positions, particularly in the front court. There just aren't enough good shooters who are at minimum average defenders.

Lin's value is as a higher usage point guard....the highest supply position (by a mile) with an inherently capped demand for his skill. Whereas you'd be hard pressed finding 15 players like Marvin, there are 50+ that provide at minimum 95% of Lin's production.

Abstractly the point about the large supply of PGs is true. But there so many crappy second units, and backup PGs, out there. So many teams are sorely lacking in that area. Clippers, Bulls, Wizard, Rockets, on and on. Lins ability to get in paint and score is elite. His pnr ability is also way above average. And he showed this year he can be a good defender. Also, when Lin is asked to take on the role of organizing an offense he can do it - he's not Chris Paul or anything close , but he can see the floor and he can get other players going better than most . I'm not sure there are 50+ players that can do all that - or 95% of that..., and also be strong enough to play as combo guard and rugged enough to have as few injuries as Lin does.

Lin is not in the first tier by any means but when I look around there are also not that many players in the second tier, where Lin is

[TinmanZBoy]

Over lin's 6 year careers
Against any team (starting or not), I can find at last one decent game that Lin either out-peformed the opposing PG or being equal...including those premium PGs in the league... Curry, Westbrook, CP3, Irving, Wall, Lillard, DWill, DRose, Lowry, Dragic...
for a backup pg, this is not too shabby...

[Mystical Apples]

Courtney Lee's salary 2015-2016 was only $5.675 mill.

That's why it surprised me his cap hold is $10.8 mill - it must have something on do with how his trade transaction was structured.

His salary is below the estimated $5.74M average salary and is subject to the 190% hold rate. Above that figure it's 150%.

[steady]

Courtney Lee's salary 2015-2016 was only $5.675 mill.

That's why it surprised me his cap hold is $10.8 mill - it must have something on do with how his trade transaction was structured.

His salary is below the estimated $5.74M average salary and is subject to the 190% hold rate. Above that figure it's 150%.

Ah, that's why. Thanks MA!

[Mystical Apples]

I am not trying to make Lin out to a star player but borderline starter means 20 to 40 range among point guards. And just think I really like Marvin and he's a Tar Heel but he was looked as not living up to his potential and then a change in hornet offensive approach and all of a sudden he's in demand. There's more to it for both Marvin and lin. Bigs will always cost you more but you have to think flexibility. If you hold on to Lee as backup shooting guard then you need a backup point. You keep Lin and you don't really need a high priced guard. You could keep Daniels and Jorge or Harrison and along with Lamb at the 2/3.

Marvin is a great stretch 4 but he can't play center and he has trouble playing the three so you are tied to Marvin and one position. Yes he is versatile in that position but you still have to fill out your roster needs.

Getting Lin for the MLE would be a good deal but over that amount requires cap space and consequently where Lin's salary diverges greatly with Charlotte's (opportunity) cost. The penalties associated with re-signing Lin don't apply to Charlotte's other FA's. In fact, the CBA structures Bird Rights as an asset at the expense of players w/o Bird Rights.

It's not just Lin vs Marvin (or Courtney, or Al, or Batum).

[eparadox]

Even entertaining the idea, or hoping that JLin would sign with you for the MLE, or even 8mil/yr, is farfetched. JLin is ranked by most publications as the 3rd best PG on the market, and with the explosion in cap space and the multiple teams that need a starting PG or playoff teams that truly desire or would accommodate a combo guard as their 6th man, it is unrealistic to think that JLin would accept any contract from Charlotte without guarantees that his role would be in fact that of a sixth man, which only occurred with the Hornets for the first half of the season when Hairston was starting. With a healthy roster, JLin wouldn't sniff more than 20 minutes/night with your team, and he most definitely knows this. I'm not even sure why this thread was reopened since there is literally no chance that JLin will be resigning here.

[rallydurham]

I talked to one of his ex teammates who works in the league. Said lin is gonna have three large offers. Hes not coming back to charlotte

[_tijo_]

Lin fanboys are the best... you guys really are loyal, and you know what's best for Jeremy and his family and his career!

Yes, Jeremy will get a offer from someone that will be higher. He will get an offer from Charlotte that will be reasonable, but will be less. He also knows that he won't start here, and other places may offer that opportunity. Not sure if I would want to play for those teams, but it's there. But Jeremy finished every game here, and said this was by far the place where he had the most fun in his professional career. It will come down to what he wants to do, and I wouldn't begrudge him either way. If he goes, I will understand and wish him good luck. If he stays, I will love it since I can still wear my Buzz City black alt Lin jersey. And honestly, I think he's probably the 4th most important piece to the team, behind Kemba, Batum, and MKG. This year's team was by far the most fun Charlotte team that I've watched, (since the Bobcats started, wasn't here for the OG Hornets) and I think it was because they guys really liked each other and played well together. I know we can't bring everyone back, but I trust that Cho will build a good roster. Hope Jeremy gets to be part of it.

[KM6]

Lin fanboys are the best... you guys really are loyal, and you know what's best for Jeremy and his family and his career!

Yes, Jeremy will get a offer from someone that will be higher. He will get an offer from Charlotte that will be reasonable, but will be less. He also knows that he won't start here, and other places may offer that opportunity. Not sure if I would want to play for those teams, but it's there. But Jeremy finished every game here, and said this was by far the place where he had the most fun in his professional career. It will come down to what he wants to do, and I wouldn't begrudge him either way. If he goes, I will understand and wish him good luck. If he stays, I will love it since I can still wear my Buzz City black alt Lin jersey. And honestly, I think he's probably the 4th most important piece to the team, behind Kemba, Batum, and MKG. This year's team was by far the most fun Charlotte team that I've watched, (since the Bobcats started, wasn't here for the OG Hornets) and I think it was because they guys really liked each other and played well together. I know we can't bring everyone back, but I trust that Cho will build a good roster. Hope Jeremy gets to be part of it.

JLin has more fans than every hornets players combined. We might not always know what's best for him, his family and his career, but you can bet we are loyal!

Jeremy will likely get an offer from hornets that might be reasonable from the hornets' perspective given their cap situation, but based on what he did for the team in the past season, it would look like an insult knowing how much everyone else is getting paid on the team(7 mil for Lamb who gets free court side tickets to each game, and 5.6 mil for JLin?)

Charlotte had been a nice stop for JLin, the media, and fans had been nice and more fair to him than in Houston and LA, but because of Kemba is the undisputed franchise PG, Lin would not get the opportunity to showcase what he is fully capable of. We don't know what he might decided to do for his own career, but as fans, we hope to see him start. Because we believe he is a better player than many starting PGs, including Kemba, when given the chance, thus taking a deep discount to be a back up is a waste especially as he enters his prime years.

Unlike the Lakers or Rockets, if Lin does move on from Hornets, I wish Hornets the best of luck. It's been a fun year for JLin and us fans. There are so much more joy and so much less frustration watching the team play than with his previous two teams. Hopefully this is the beginning of a bright new future for JLin and the hornets team regardless of what happens.

[bws94]

Lin fanboys are the best... you guys really are loyal, and you know what's best for Jeremy and his family and his career!

Yes, Jeremy will get a offer from someone that will be higher. He will get an offer from Charlotte that will be reasonable, but will be less. He also knows that he won't start here, and other places may offer that opportunity. Not sure if I would want to play for those teams, but it's there. But Jeremy finished every game here, and said this was by far the place where he had the most fun in his professional career. It will come down to what he wants to do, and I wouldn't begrudge him either way. If he goes, I will understand and wish him good luck. If he stays, I will love it since I can still wear my Buzz City black alt Lin jersey. And honestly, I think he's probably the 4th most important piece to the team, behind Kemba, Batum, and MKG. This year's team was by far the most fun Charlotte team that I've watched, (since the Bobcats started, wasn't here for the OG Hornets) and I think it was because they guys really liked each other and played well together. I know we can't bring everyone back, but I trust that Cho will build a good roster. Hope Jeremy gets to be part of it.

Yes. Thanks. 4th most important possibly. He's valuable because there was no MKG most games and Batum missed about 1/4 of the season and was not himself in what, 7, 8 games.

And yes, nobody knows what Lin will do and offers he will get. That's not my focus. You can't dismiss Lin's contribution to the team with a bunch comparitive stats. That doesn't tell the full story. And that's the hole in the argument that he's easily replaceable with some backup PG out there. He's replaceable, but not easily replaceable. Houston hasn't replaced him. Nor has the Knicks.

[LofJ]

I talked to one of his ex teammates who works in the league. Said lin is gonna have three large offers. Hes not coming back to charlotte

I'm going to guess those teams are Brooklyn, Detroit, and Houston (given D'antoni's comments about Lin).

[spaceballer]

The China Post has an article on a press conference. The newspaper has it up on their facebook page:

Jeremy Lin says he won’t decide which team he will join until after NBA draft

National Basketball Association (NBA) player Jeremy Lin said Friday that he will not make a final decision on which team he will join next season until after the upcoming NBA draft later this month.

During a press conference held in Taipei, Lin, who arrived earlier in the day for an eight-day tour, told reporters that it is still too early for him to decide whether he will stay in the Charlotte Hornets or wear another team’s jersey next season, when asked to comment on his future plans.

“My agent and I agreed that we will have to wait until after the NBA draft to be held on June 23 so that we might have a clearer view about what to do next,” Lin said.

But he expressed having had an enjoyable season with the Hornets. “For me the most important thing is that I want to be happy when I go to work everyday,” he said. “I was not that happy in my first five seasons in the NBA but I had great fun and a happy time last season,” he noted in fluent mandarin.

Other than being happy at work, he said there are a lot of things to take into account before making a decision regarding his next move, including considerations about the coaching staff, teammates and whether his future team is competitive enough to win a championship title.

“Whether I can play as a starter is another thing I have to consider,” he noted. Lin said that he will take all these factors into consideration before making his final decision.

The 27-year-old Harvard grad is coming off a great season with the Hornets in which he averaged 11.7 points and three assists in the 78 games he played, coming off the bench in most games.

Lin signed a two-year, US$4.3 million contract with the Hornets last July. He has a US$2.2 million player option for the second season of his two-year deal.

According to foreign media reports, Lin has declined his player option with the Hornets and will enter free agency as an unrestricted free agent.

Lin arrived in Taiwan on Saturday morning to a welcoming crowd at Taoyuan International Airport around 6 a.m

https://www.facebook.com/Chinapost/posts/1222643594413771

[Mystical Apples]

Abstractly the point about the large supply of PGs is true. But there so many crappy second units, and backup PGs, out there. So many teams are sorely lacking in that area. Clippers, Bulls, Wizard, Rockets, on and on. Lins ability to get in paint and score is elite. His pnr ability is also way above average. And he showed this year he can be a good defender. Also, when Lin is asked to take on the role of organizing an offense he can do it - he's not Chris Paul or anything close , but he can see the floor and he can get other players going better than most . I'm not sure there are 50+ players that can do all that - or 95% of that..., and also be strong enough to play as combo guard and rugged enough to have as few injuries as Lin does.

Lin is not in the first tier by any means but when I look around there are also not that many players in the second tier, where Lin is

It may sound like criticism but it isn't. It's a role vs. need vs. economic thing with Charlotte having options up and down the cost scale. And yes, Lin has skills not every PG possesses but positional designations are semi-unnecessary. Teams acquire skills, not positions, and in that regard PnR action (or offenses in general) go through wings for many teams.

I think we can agree Lin is at an awkward intersection of usage, efficiency, and age whose value relative to players like ETwaun Moore, Dellevadova, and Patrick Beverley is roster dependent....look at Indiana this year, for example. A team needing an attacker will pay Lin accordingly. Others like Charlotte, Utah, and Cleveland with wing handlers would find lower usage combos who space the floor appealing.

Being a starter is a meaningless designation but if we're rigid there are 30 starters along with several would be starting PG/Combos who start at SG....Knight/Bledsoe, McCollum/Lillard, Jrue/Tyreke, Bradley/Thomas, Collison/Rondo, Monta/Hill, Payton/Oladipo etc...even Wade was Miami's backup after AS break. That's 37 starting caliber PG/Combo's.

Lin is at the tail end of that group and close to the beginning of this one: Smart, Schroder, Livingston, Tyler Johnson, Joseph, Mills, Jennings, Moore, and Bayless. Chalmers is a stretch but he's closer than people realize on a 1-2 year deal. On top of those 47 players are 5-10 rookie scale backups, or soon to be drafted rookies, who's teams value potential over wins and production. Either way, those rookie scales are eating backup spots and consequently lowering demand.

[TinmanZBoy]

Lin fanboys are the best... you guys really are loyal, and you know what's best for Jeremy and his family and his career!

Yes, Jeremy will get a offer from someone that will be higher. He will get an offer from Charlotte that will be reasonable, but will be less. He also knows that he won't start here, and other places may offer that opportunity. Not sure if I would want to play for those teams, but it's there. But Jeremy finished every game here, and said this was by far the place where he had the most fun in his professional career. It will come down to what he wants to do, and I wouldn't begrudge him either way. If he goes, I will understand and wish him good luck. If he stays, I will love it since I can still wear my Buzz City black alt Lin jersey. And honestly, I think he's probably the 4th most important piece to the team, behind Kemba, Batum, and MKG. This year's team was by far the most fun Charlotte team that I've watched, (since the Bobcats started, wasn't here for the OG Hornets) and I think it was because they guys really liked each other and played well together. I know we can't bring everyone back, but I trust that Cho will build a good roster. Hope Jeremy gets to be part of it.

JLin has more fans than every hornets players combined. We might not always know what's best for him, his family and his career, but you can bet we are loyal!

Jeremy will likely get an offer from hornets that might be reasonable from the hornets' perspective given their cap situation, but based on what he did for the team in the past season, it would look like an insult knowing how much everyone else is getting paid on the team(7 mil for Lamb who gets free court side tickets to each game, and 5.6 mil for JLin?)

Charlotte had been a nice stop for JLin, the media, and fans had been nice and more fair to him than in Houston and LA, but because of Kemba is the undisputed franchise PG, Lin would not get the opportunity to showcase what he is fully capable of. We don't know what he might decided to do for his own career, but as fans, we hope to see him start. Because we believe he is a better player than many starting PGs, including Kemba, when given the chance, thus taking a deep discount to be a back up is a waste especially as he enters his prime years.

Unlike the Lakers or Rockets, if Lin does move on from Hornets, I wish Hornets the best of luck. It's been a fun year for JLin and us fans. There are so much more joy and so much less frustration watching the team play than with his previous two teams. Hopefully this is the beginning of a bright new future for JLin and the hornets team regardless of what happens.

more accurately, JLin has more fans who would die for him (well in the fantasy world) than every NBA players combined...

[TinmanZBoy]

people are too optimistic about Jlin's free agency this summer... I would say if Lin can get a contract like 8millions/year for three years, that would count a victory for him...

[Lorenzomax7]

Lin fanboys are the best... you guys really are loyal, and you know what's best for Jeremy and his family and his career!

Yes, Jeremy will get a offer from someone that will be higher. He will get an offer from Charlotte that will be reasonable, but will be less. He also knows that he won't start here, and other places may offer that opportunity. Not sure if I would want to play for those teams, but it's there. But Jeremy finished every game here, and said this was by far the place where he had the most fun in his professional career. It will come down to what he wants to do, and I wouldn't begrudge him either way. If he goes, I will understand and wish him good luck. If he stays, I will love it since I can still wear my Buzz City black alt Lin jersey. And honestly, I think he's probably the 4th most important piece to the team, behind Kemba, Batum, and MKG. This year's team was by far the most fun Charlotte team that I've watched, (since the Bobcats started, wasn't here for the OG Hornets) and I think it was because they guys really liked each other and played well together. I know we can't bring everyone back, but I trust that Cho will build a good roster. Hope Jeremy gets to be part of it.

Thank you Charlotte, you have the best fans in the NBA.

[tonman]

I am not trying to make Lin out to a star player but borderline starter means 20 to 40 range among point guards. And just think I really like Marvin and he's a Tar Heel but he was looked as not living up to his potential and then a change in hornet offensive approach and all of a sudden he's in demand. There's more to it for both Marvin and lin. Bigs will always cost you more but you have to think flexibility. If you hold on to Lee as backup shooting guard then you need a backup point. You keep Lin and you don't really need a high priced guard. You could keep Daniels and Jorge or Harrison and along with Lamb at the 2/3.

Marvin is a great stretch 4 but he can't play center and he has trouble playing the three so you are tied to Marvin and one position. Yes he is versatile in that position but you still have to fill out your roster needs.

Getting Lin for the MLE would be a good deal but over that amount requires cap space and consequently where Lin's salary diverges greatly with Charlotte's (opportunity) cost. The penalties associated with re-signing Lin don't apply to Charlotte's other FA's. In fact, the CBA structures Bird Rights as an asset at the expense of players w/o Bird Rights.

It's not just Lin vs Marvin (or Courtney, or Al, or Batum).

Which is my point but you miss the flexibility point. Lin goes you need a backup point and guard unless you say Jorge or Harrison and Daniels with Lamb are going to be your bench. So now you have to decide who and how much. Yes you could use the mle to bring a vet but you could also do that for Marv because we have frank or Lee because of mkg or al because we already have Cody and Hawes. Sure make trades we can always do that. Point is lin fills a few needs of point, off guard, facilitator, vet, intangibles, scorer, 6th man. Not debating your cap logic just you are over simplifying Lin's impact and replaceability.